The Wizard and the Prophet2

by Charles C. Mann

  Jevons paradox: Madureira 2012:406–13; Heilbroner 1995 (1953):172–76 passim; Black 1972–81, 1:203 (Gladstone); Courtney 1897 (Mill, 789); Thomson 1881 (“not slowly,” 434); Jevons 1866 (paradox of increased consumption, 122–37; “of consumption,” 242).

  British coal peaks, world output rises: U.K. historical coal production: www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets. World historical coal production: Smil 2008:219–21.

  Churchill advocates oil: Churchill 2005 (1931):73–76. For the later, similar U.S. move to naval oil, see DeNovo 1955.

  Government buys BP: Jack 1968; Statement, W. Churchill, in Great Britain House of Commons 1913:1465–89 (“we require,” 1475).

  British involvement in Iran: Yergin 2008 (1991):118–33; Zirinsky 1992.

  Race to control Middle East supplies: Yergin 2008 (1991):160–89 is a good overview. Also useful are Dahl 2001; Marzano 1996; Shwadran 1977:2; Cohen 1976; Mejcher 1972; DeNovo 1955.

  U.S., Russia oil production: Ferrier 2000 (1982), 1:638.

  U.S. oil production 1920–29: “U.S. Field Production of Crude Oil,” Energy Information Agency; “U.S. Ending Stocks of Crude Oil,” Energy Information Agency (both at www.eia.gov).

  Russia and Venezuela: Maugeri 2006:30–32.

  Newspaper search: The archive was at www.newspapers.com.

  Newspaper warnings: “Nation Faces Oil Famine,” Los Angeles Times, 23 Sep 1923 (“the nation”); “Oil Famine Within Two Years Is Scouted by Students of Industry,” Houston Post-Dispatch, 12 Dec 1924 (“two years”); Stevenson 1925 (“twenty years”); R. Dutcher, “Prices of Oil Are Kept Down Only by Vast Overproduction,” Times-Herald (Olean, NY), 13 Feb 1928 (“of oil”).

  “A Giant Lampshade, Reversed”: The best general histories of solar power I have come across are Perlin 2013; Madrigal 2011; Kryza 2003. Also useful are Johnson 2015 (emphasizing the connection to fossil-fuel fears I focus on here); Perlin 2002; Hempel 1983.

  Mouchot’s early life: Pottier 2014; Quinnez 2007–2008; Bordot 1958; Mouchot 1869a:193 (“expectations”).

  French coal fears, Mouchot’s solution: Jarrige 2010:86–88; Mouchot 1869a:214–15 (“do then?”), 230–31 (“mechanical applications”). See also Kryza 2003:151–53.

  Early solar use: Perlin 2013:3–35, 57–78 (ancient China, 3–8; ancient Greece, 13–14; Vitruvius, 23; Pompeii, 32); de Saussure 1786, 4:36–48, 261–63 (“through glass”).

  Early use of burning mirrors: Perlin 2013:36–55. In a probably apocryphal incident, the Greek mathematician Archimedes used parabolic mirrors to burn up an attacking Roman fleet (Kryza 2003:37–48).

  Mouchot’s first research: Pottier 2014; Simonin 1876:203; Ebelot 1869; Mouchot 1869a:193; 1869b; 1864. A number of Italian researchers had similar ideas before Mouchot, but apparently they didn’t actually build any solar engines (Silvi 2010).

  Experiments in Paris and Tours: Pottier 2014; Perlin 2013:88–91; Jarrige 2010:88–89; Quinnez 2007–2008:306–9; Simonin 1876:204–9 (“the sky,” 204); Bontemps 1876:105–7; Mouchot 1875. Simonin, the journalist, was a longtime solar enthusiast (Jarrige 2010:87).

  Comparison with coal: Anonymous 1870:310–11 (“of coal”). The engineer was Paul-Théodore Marlier (Mémoires et Compte Rendu des Travaux des Société des Ingénieurs Civils de France 21 (1873):54, 64). A flotilla of Mouchot solar engines big enough to run a factory would cover 100,000 square feet, a big area in an urban setting (Perlin 2013:91).

  Algeria and exhibition: Pottier 2014; Perlin 2013:92–95 (“in the world”); Jarrige 2010:89–91; Quinnez 2007–2008:309–16.

  Mouchot gives up: Jarrige 2010:92. His assistant, Abel Pifre, took over for a few years, eventually constructing a solar-powered printing press (Quinnez 2007–2008:316–18; Collins 2002; Pifre 1880; Crova 1880).

  Mouchot’s last years (footnote): Pottier 2014; Quinnez 2007–2008:319–20; Bordot 1958; “Louis [sic] Mouchot in Poverty,” NYT, July 27, 1907.

  Britain’s steam-engine growth: Tunzelman 2003 (1986):74–78.

  Ericsson’s solar projects: Johnson 2015:22-31; Perlin 2013:99–108 (“mere toy,” 104); Kryza 2003:106–23; Collins 2002; Hempel 1983:47–50; Church 1911 (1890), 2:260–301 (“the solar rays,” 265; “and complex,” 271); Anonymous 1889 (“should go on,” 191); Ericsson 1888 (“perfected”); “The Coal Problem and Solar Engines,” NYT, 10 Sept 1868.

  Ericsson’s vision: Ericsson 1870 (all quotes). Ericsson admitted that not all of the Earth got enough sunlight for his engines. But the suitable area included a band “from northwest Africa to Mongolia, 9,000 miles in length and nearly 1,000 miles wide” and an equivalent sunbelt in the Americas, enough to permanently change the human condition.

  Lovins and soft path: Parisi 1977; Yulish 1977; Lovins 1976. Lovins did not indicate a source for the term “soft,” but may have taken it from Robert Clarke (1972).

  Winsor and Gas Light and Coke Company: Tomory 2012:121–238 (“of the world,” 121; 30,000 lamps, 234); Mokyr ed. 2003 2:393–94 (Baltimore).

  Pasadena and Cairo installations, Massachusetts textbook: Johnson 2015:41–57, 64–69; Perlin 2013:109–17, 129–42; Kryza 2003, chaps. 1, 3–5, 8 (a fascinating account); “Rev. Charles Henry Pope,” Cambridge Tribune, 23 Feb 1918; “American Inventor Uses Egypt’s Sun for Power,” NYT, 2 Jul 1916; Pope 1903.

  Father Himalaya and Pyrheliophoro: Tinoco 2012; Pereira 2005; Rodrigues 1999; Graham 1904; “Father Himalaya and the Possibilities of His Prize-Winning Pyrheliophor,” NYT, 12 Mar 1904; “Pyrheliophor, Wonder of St. Louis Fair,” NYT, 6 Nov 1904 (“necessary to lie”).

  Hubbert’s life: The principal sources are Inman (2016) and HOHI.

  Hubbert and Technocracy: Inman 2016:35–121 passim; Yergin 2012 (2011):236 (Great Engineer); [Hubbert] 2008 (1934) (principal text); Session 4, 17 Jan 1989, HOHI; Akin 1977 passim. The Technocracy Study Course was anonymous, but Inman (2016:344n) makes a convincing case for Hubbert’s authorship.

  Technocracy Study Course: [Hubbert] 2008 (1934) (“essentially different,” 99; “135,000,000 people,” 158; “North American Continent,” 220).

  Hubbert quits Technocracy: Inman 2016:120–21 (“Technocracy meeting”).

  Hubbert vs. Stanford geologist: Inman 2016:114–18; Levorsen 1950 (1.5 trillion, 99); Session 6, 23 Jan 1989, HOHI (“of oil”); Hamilton 1949 (“metaphysics”). The Stanford geologist was A. I. Levorsen (see chapter 8). Hubbert appended a sketch of his curve and predicted the peak in 50–75 years (Levorsen 1950:104).

  State of geology: Oreskes 2000.

  “minds of men”: Pratt 1952:2236.

  Hubbert publishes formal model: Hubbert 1949 (all quotes). The model was revised and expanded in Hubbert 1951.

  Hubbert and petri dish: Hubbert made the comparison explicitly in Hubbert 1962:125–26. See also Hubbert 1938.

  Hubbert’s Gause-like curves: Hubbert 1951 (“matter and energy,” 271; “to zero,” 262). Hubbert’s “curve-fitting” method is dissected in Lynch 2016:75–82; Sorrell and Speirs 2010.

  Hubbert moves to Shell: Session 4, 17 Jan 1989; Session 5, 20 Jan 1989, HOHI. Inman (2016:73–98) recounts his life between Columbia and Shell.

  Shell’s unhappiness: Session 7, 27 Jan 1989, HOHI (“parts out?”).

  Hubbert predicts peak: Hubbert 1956. Later Hubbert predicted the peak “should occur in the late 1960’s [or] early 1970’s” (Hubbert 1962:73). See also Priest 2014:50–52.

  Peak in 1970: U.S. Field Production of Oil (1859–present), Energy Information Agency, available at www.eia.gov.

  Hubbert, McKelvey, Udall: Author’s interviews, Priest; Inman 2016:183–86, 212–13, 267–70; Priest 2014 (fight with McKelvey, 53–63; “McKelvey out,” 66; “ninety-eight-year history,” 67); interview, David Room (Global Public Media) with Udall, 8 Feb 2006, transcript at www.mkinghubbert.com (“a Hubbert man”).

  Oil blockades: Overviews include Clayton 2015:106–16; Mitchell 2011, chap. 7; Yergin 2008 (1991):570–614; Bryce 2008:93–97; Adelman 1995:99–117 (see esp. Table 5.4); Grove 1974 (“Oil Age,” 821). Pr
eviously, during the 1967 Arab-Israeli war, half a dozen Arab nations launched an oil embargo. It had next to no effect, because the U.S. then still produced much of its own oil.

  Impact of price controls: Author’s interview, Michael Lynch; Lynch 2016:33–36; Hamilton 2013:13–15; Bryce 2008:93–95; Adelman 1995:110–17 (“The shortages were created entirely at home, the result of price controls and allocations,” 112). Bryce (2008:95) notes that U.S. oil companies had big stockpiles of oil that they did not want to refine into gasoline, because price controls ensured they would lose money on every gallon.

  Limits to Growth: Meadows et al. 1972; Schoijet (1999:518–19) says William Behrens, one of the coauthors, used Hubbert’s work as a starting point. See also Inman 2016:232–35; Sabin 2013:86 (“Limits to Growth”).

  Shortage rumors: Salmon: “Salmon Shortage,” The Times (San Mateo, CA), 9 Nov 1973; Cheese: Associated Press 1974; Onions: Charlton 1973; Raisins: “New Breakfast Blow: Raisin Shortage Hits,” Milwaukee Journal, 2 Feb 1977; Toilet paper: Lynch 2016:33; Malcolm 1974. The Japanese shortage was experienced by the author’s wife and her parents, who lived in Japan at the time.

  Carter speech: J. Carter, Speech to nation, 18 April 1977, in Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States: Jimmy Carter, Book I, January 20 to June 24, 1977, 655–61. Washington: U.S. Government Printing Office.

  Hubbert limit in 1995: Grove 1974:821.

  Carter boosts coal: Blum 1980 (“The policy of the Carter Administration is to burn three times more coal by the year 1995,” 4); Carter 1977a, b. Carter called the energy crisis the “moral equivalent of war.” Critics seized the acronym and referred to his program as MEOW.

  Historical oil prices: http://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inflation_Rate/Historical_Oil_Prices_Chart.asp.

  Kern River output, reserves: Reserve figures from OGJ and the California Division of Oil, Gas, and Geothermal Resources (Marilyn Tennyson, USGS, pers. comm.). Also useful: Tennyson et al. 2012; Takahashi and Gautier 2007 (first drilling, 6-9); Adelman 1991:10–11; Roadifer 1986; “U.S. Fields with Reserves Exceeding 100 Million Bbl,” OGJ, 27 Jan 1986. I am grateful to Sarah Yager at the Atlantic Monthly for helping me sort through these numbers and contacting Dr. Tennyson.

  1998 blowout and aftermath: Waldner 2006; Singer 1999.

  “Never”: Adelman 2004:17.

  Victorian Internet: Standage 2013 (1998) (“of information,” xvii–xviii).

  Smith and selenium: Perlin 2013:302–4; 2002:15–16; Smith 1891:310–11 (“in the morning”), 1873a, b. One source says that the actual discovery was made by a telegraph clerk, who then told Smith (Anonymous 1883).

  Adams and selenium: Adams and Day 1877; 1876 (“of light,” 115).

  Fritts’s selenium panels: Perlin 2013:305–8 (“at that time,” 307); Fritts 1885, 1883. Several other inventors received patents on “solar cells” at about this time, but none seem actually to have built them.

  Einstein’s papers: Pais 1982 (photoelectric effect, 380–86). Later that year a fifth paper introduced the famous equation, E = mc2. The term “photon” was coined in 1926.

  Chapin’s test: Perlin 2002:26.

  Development of transistor: Isaacson 2014:136–52; Riordan and Hoddeson 1998; Hoddeson 1981.

  Fuller and Pearson invent silicon panels: Johnson 2015:137–51; Perlin 2013:310–25; 2002:25–36 ($1.43 million, 35). Fuller and Pearson built upon earlier work by Russell Ohl. The gold-leaf comparison uses 1,200 sq. ft. as the average size of a suburban home in the 1950s and $35 as the price of gold.

  Oil shocks as solar catalyst: Johnson 2015:179–80; Jones and Bouamane 2012:16–18; Fialka 1974.

  Sunlight, human energy use: Solar incidence and reflection taken from the foundational Sørensen (2011 [1979]:174); human use from IEA 2014b:48. The ratio of incident sunlight to human consumption depends on the estimate of the latter; some researchers (e.g., Pittock 2009 [2005]:177) say that the sun produces ca. 10,000 times human energy production. See also Smil 2008, chap. 2. Morton (2015:62–71) has an elegant popular discussion.

  Counterculture and solar: Johnson 2015:185–90; Baldwin and Brand eds. 1978 (“even lovable,” 5); Lovins 1976; Commoner 1976 (“be possessed,” 153); Grove 1974:792–93 (Hubbert backs solar). Commoner’s “concept of solar energy utilization as naturally conducive to democracy became a central tenet of 1970s energy politics” (Johnson 2015:203). Similarly, Earth Day organizer Denis Hayes claimed in Rays of Hope that peak oil would lead to a “post-petroleum age” of solar-powered liberty (Hayes 1977). These arguments were anticipated by Pope (1903:139, 154) and Huxley (1993 [1939]:148–65ff.).

  The Pentagon, Big Oil, and photovoltaics: Johnson 2015:156–74; Nahm 2014:55–61; Lüdeke-Freund 2013 (BP); Jones and Bouamane 2012:14–16, 21–38, 51–53 (Exxon and Mobil, 23–24); Perlin 2002:41–46 (space), 61–69 (70%, 68). Non-petroleum firms made PV for space and offshore platforms before Big Oil stepped in; the petroleum companies set up the first firms that manufactured terrestrial solar panels. Not all the financial muscle behind PVs was tied to oil: In 1999 the then-biggest U.S. solar firm, First Solar, was acquired by the investment arm of the Walton family, which owns Wal-Mart. In Europe and Japan PVs were the province of huge electronics firms like Siemens and Sharp.

  Campbell and Laherrère: Campbell and Laherrère 1998 (“Before 2010,” 79; “of it”, 81; “nations depend,” 83). They didn’t use the term “peak oil,” which was not coined until 2002.

  Peak-oil predictions: Clayton 2015:155 (Pickens); Bush, G. W. 2008. Statement, World Economic Forum, 18 May, available at georgewbush-whitehouse.archives.gov (“oil is limited”); Simmons 2005:xvii (“irreversible decline”); Kunstler 2005: 26 (“unimaginable austerity”).

  Public fears of peak oil: Clayton 2015:159 (highest price, 78 percent); Kemp 2013 (83 percent); Swartz 2008 (“take care of that”); Sesno 2006 (three-quarters); “a given time”: DeLillo 1989:66.

  Modi bio: Price 2015 (“religious freedom,” 207); J. Mann 2014. The visa decision was reversed in 2014.

  Modi’s solar program: Author’s visits, interviews, Gujarat; Mann 2015; Moon, B-K. 2015. “Remarks at 10 MW Canal Top Solar Power Plant,” 11 Jan (available at www.un.org/sg/en/content/sg/speeches); Modi 2011 (green autobiography).

  Efficiencies of photovoltaics, coal: The National Renewable Energy Laboratory tracks efficiency improvements over time at www.nrel.gov/ncpv/; for coal, see IEA (Coal Industry Advisory Board) 2010:90 (Table II.7). Mann 2014 (costs of CCS); Prieto and Hall 2013 (low solar efficiency).

  Cost of solar and coal plants: Bolinger and Seel 2015; Energy Information Agency 2013. The EIA (2013:6) estimated the capital cost of a single-unit advanced PC coal plant at $3.25/watt; Bolinger and Seel (2015:13), of Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory, put the median price of a utility-scale photovoltaic plant at $3.10/watt. These are snapshots of a moving, vaguely defined target.

  India solar-power share: Installed/Derated Capacity of Gujarat, Gujarat Energy Transmission Corporation (31 Jul 2015), available at www.sldcguj.com (5%); Bhat 2015 (10%); Power Grid Corporation of India 2013 (35%).

  India energy storage: Author’s visit, interviews, Gujarat; Choudhury 2013; Muirhead 2014.

  German energy-storage projects: Department of Energy Global Energy Storage Database, available at www.energystorageexchange.org.

  Crescent Dunes: Author’s visit, interviews; Crescent Dunes production and Nevada energy data from Electricity Data Browser and Nevada State Profile, both at www.eia.gov. Basin and Range critiques: www.basinandrangewatch.org. Beetles: “Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants; 12-Month Finding on a Petition to List Six Sand Dune Beetles,” 77 Federal Register 42238 (18 Jul 2012). Concentrated solar power and storage was pioneered in Spain, but these projects did not store enough power to last an entire night.

  Prophets protest renewables: Author’s interviews, Center for Biological Diversity; Montgomery 2013, Woody 2012 (Mojave); Clark 2013 (England); Griffin 2014 (Ireland); Ouellet 2016 (Canada); Hambler 2013 (“climate change�
�); Nienaber 2015, Hollerson 2010 (Germany).

  Chapter Seven: Air: Climate Change

  Great Oxidation Event: Author’s conversations, Margulis; Schirrmeister et al. 2016; Lyons et al. 2014; Bekker et al. 2004. Some have argued that the evidence for mass death is weak, contra Margulis (Lane 2002, chap. 2); Margulis’s version is Margulis and Sagan 1997 (1986):99–113 (“holocaust,” 99). Technically, the name “Oxygenation Event” should be used. Cyanobacteria were initially vulnerable to increasing oxygen, but quickly evolved mechanisms to cope with it.

  Fourier’s life: Christianson 1999: Chap. 1 (box, 3); Fleming 1998:62–63 (“all of space,” 63). Herivel 1975; Grattan-Guinness 1972: esp. 1–25, 475–90.

  Fourier’s climate papers: Fourier 1824, 1827 (“innumerable stars,” 569; “polar regions,” 570). Useful analyses include Pierrehumbert 2004; Fleming 1998:55–64. In the previous century scientists had proposed that heat was a substance, sometimes called phlogiston or caloric. In 1804 Benjamin Thompson, Count Rumford, disproved this notion. At about the same time William Herschel discovered that there was more to sunlight than the visible spectrum. Fourier built on these findings.

  “Greenhouse effect” (footnote): Hay 2013:264; van der Veen 2000; Mudge 1997; Von Czerny 1881:76. French physicist Claude Pouillet compared the atmosphere to a greenhouse in 1838, but didn’t actually use the word “greenhouse.” Instead he talked of “diathermanous screens” of glass, attributing the comparison, incorrectly, to Fourier (Pouillet 1838).

  Tyndall’s life: Hulme 2009a; Weart 2008 (2003):3–5; Bowen 2005:81–87; Fleming 1998:65–74; Eve and Creassey 1945.

  Discovery of the Ice Ages: Rudwick 2008: esp. chaps. 13, 34–36.

  Tyndall’s work: Tyndall 1861 (“81 per cent,” 178; “absorption of 15,” 276; “geologists reveal,” 276–77).

  Water vapor’s big punch: I am indebted to Raymond Pierrehumbert and Rob DeConto for help in this section. See also Pierrehumbert 2011.