Analysis of India's Ability to Fight a 2-front War 2018
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Myanmar-Yunnan oil and gas pipelines
5.7 China and the Western Indian Ocean and the Red Sea
The Maldives
The Maldives are a group of islands in the Arabia Sea, with a population of 410,000 and a GDP of $4.3-billion.[115] Thanks to tourism, it enjoys the highest per capita income in South Asia of $10,000. It has 1200 islands, of which two hundred are populated. Colombo is 1700-km NE; Diego Garcia 1800-km SSW, and Aden 4000-km NW, and Perth 5300-km SE. Strategically, we don’t need Mahan to alert us to the mouth-watering possibilities of the Maldives as a base for control of a large part of the Indian Ocean. And guess what? The Chinese have the developmental rights to 16 islands.[116] It is like wanting to visit the Maldives to write “Kilroy was here” on a rock and finding written on every rock “Kilroy is here”, in Chinese.
Traditionally, India considers the country to be within its sphere of influence. In 1988, for example, with US blessing India militarily intervened to stop Sri Lanka mercenaries from staging a coup. But those days have gone. The old pro-Indian president has been ousted, a pro-China one rules. Naturally, he says the Maldives must consider India’s sensitives. Of which Maldives has a different definition than India because it has accepted large – for the size of the population and GDP – investments from China. Plus, foreigners can own land, provided they invest $1-billion and reclaim 70% of it from the sea. No guesses needed as to who has $1-billion in spare change lost in the sofa and the world’s greatest expertise in dredging to expand atolls. Another indicator can gauge the degree of Chinese involvement: in 2017, 300,000 Chinese citizens visited the Maldives, more than any other country. And, of course, once more resorts are built, sending 3x or even 10x that number will present no difficulty. China has 1.4-billion people, a per capita income of $8000+ and increasing. There’s a lot of potential Chinese tourists.
In 2017, alarmed by China’s inroads, the Indian foreign secretary made an unannounced visit to Male, to sort out differences over an Indian project on Assumption Island, signed by the Indian Prime Minister in 2015. India proposes the construction of Coast Guard barracks and refurbishing an existing jetty and airstrip. The Indian Coast Guard helps with maritime surveillance. India has given two Dornier 228s. China has given two Y-12s, which are in the same class.[117] The Male government said the agreement did not have legal backing in its country. In 2015, the Maldives Coast Guard had four patrol vessels over 40-meters, three between 20-30 meters, and eight fast response boats.[118] The 40+ meter vessels came from India (Trinkat class), China (Shanghai II), UAE and Italy. There are also two 2-engine aircraft.[119] As usual, India rushes to bolt the stable door, after the horses, the rats, the flies, and the cockroaches have all fled. But, if it is any consolation, both the biggest vessel and the fastest boat (45-knots) are from India, and in January 2018 a modified agreement was signed where India will build facilities for Male, but other countries as Male decides can use the facilities, and if India is at war, its user rights are suspended.[120] Better than nothing.
While researching the Maldives-China link, it became easily apparent that an anti-China coup by India was imminent. The current president must have decided he had to act immediately, and on February 3, imposed a 15-day state of emergency.[121] The immediate provocation is that the Supreme Court ruled opposition members in jail must be freed, and the former pro-India president, now in exile, must be allowed to stand for the next election. So, the judges opposing the current president are now in jail. In a larger sense, it matters little who runs the country. China has money to goive, we do not. When these internal disputes in the 3rd World flare, almost invariably the party on the outs are disgruntled the in-party is monopolizing patronage. Because of its continuous presence in the West Indian Ocean, and given the base at Djibouti, China can probably get troops/warships to the Maldives in the same time as India. It would be of great interest to learn if China moved intervention assets closer to Male, the capital; this kind of real-time information is not, alas, available to individuals. On February 7, 2018, the Maldives opposition asked for Indian military intervention.[122] The same day, China warned India against military intervention.[123]
Djibouti
China has piously said it does not want bases in the Maldives, because it doesn’t believe in bases anywhere. Its first overseas base, in Djibouti, must then be a resort, and the Chinese troops must be resort workers, and the armored vehicles must be golf carts. The warships must be luxury yachts, and, the exclusionary guarded fences/barriers must be to keep beggars and pie dogs from bothering the resort guests. The oil tanks must be for the resort’s generators when the electricity goes out, and the underground structures are obviously luxury malls.
The base, currently about 1.3-km2, appears to have about 300 permanent troops, including a security element of one motorized company. Of interest: China opened negotiations for the base in 2015, secured agreement in January 2016, and opened it 18-months later at the cost of $600-million. One suspects the base will become larger, but there are no publicly available indications so far. In September and November, the security troops ran live-fire exercises at a Djibouti Army range.[124] Not one to let moss grow underneath, our Chinese friends. The base includes an estimated 23,000-meters2 of underground construction, (first photo p. 242)[125] an excellent idea for stores and vehicles, given the desert location. Though speculative numbers of up to 10,000 future troops have been given,[126] for that
many a 130-hectare (320-acre) base seems much too small. Least it be assumed that the Chinese Navy presence in the Indian Ocean is mainly its anti-piracy squadron of two frigates and a support ship, in August 2017, India said there were 14 China Navy ships present, as opposed to the usual 7-8. Part of the increase was due to the presence of an anti-piracy squadron entering the Indian Ocean to replace the one on duty, leading to a temporary overlap. Other ships present include hydrographic survey, support ships, and submarines. Though India now has the excellent P-8I maritime
Chinese resort workers and golf carts lined up to welcome visitors to the Djibouti Red Sea Resort.[127]
reconnaissance aircraft and apparently maintains patrols in the Malacca and Lombok Straits, I suspect the precision of information on Chinese deployments is a consequence of the information-sharing agreement we now have with the US Navy. While in general principle I am against any US alliance, it must be admitted it has its useful aspects.
Seychelles
There is no need to go into details about Chinese penetration of every part of the North Indian Ocean, but a single article on Seychelles shows India had best accept that we will encounter the Chinese everywhere.[128] “Seychelles has a long history of cooperation with China since the two countries established diplomatic relations in 1976. Tourism, health, defense, education, construction are some of the existing areas of bilateral cooperation.” To which can be added solar power and environmental projects. China sends the largest number of tourists of any country to Seychelles. The extent of defense cooperation needs more data. A defense MOU was signed as far back as 2004. A 2016 official statement mentions personnel and high-level exchanges, training, and equipment. None of which leaves India in a happy position, or with options. When the world’s rising power offers you friendship, you don’t give it up to stick with lagging, somnambulant India. Chinese warships visit on occasion. The US has a UAV base for monitoring pirate activity. To show how serious the Chinese are about their expansion, a Washington Times report from 2013 speaks of a destroyer, and a naval marching troupe sent for Seychelles National Day. Russia also attended. India is not mentioned. The troupe, which the Chinese say trained for three months, stole the show.[129]
6. Indian Army
6.1 Summary
6.2 Summary Orbat
6.3 Battalions
6.4 Detailed Orbat
6.5 India Paramilitary/Border Forces
6.6 Territorial Army
6.7 Aviation
6.8 Miscellaneous
6.9 Regiments
6.10 Major
Personnel Issues
The combat formations are updated to 2017-18. The basic information is from my Complete World Armies 2016, which covers 248 countries, many in excruciating detail. Previously, anything from the CWA series of annuals from 2004 onward was available only on payment. CWA 2016 sold zero copies, in large part because money was lacking for marketing. Nor did we have a recognized brand name such as Jane’s. Build it, and they will come. Alas, not in today’s world. People who buy Janes are little troubled by its lack of detail, with Jane’s name you could profitably sell books of blank pages, titled, Jane’s Book of Blank Pages 2018. In retrospect, I should have become an editor for a defense publishing group, but it was my dream to have my own set-up. The usual cliché is: fight for what you believe, and you will succeed. The reality is you will starve. I include India, Pakistan, and China orbats from CWA because perhaps I’ll make enough from this book’s publisher to buy a pizza. Perhaps not.
Indian economy
GDP $2.6-trillion 2018; $2.9-trillion 2018.
Government defense expenditure 12% of 2017 GDP of $2.4-trillion.[130]
6.1 Summary
Budget
The defense budget is ~$50-billion below requirements and India’s GDP spending on defense has fallen to 1.56%, the lowest since 1947. This excludes, as is the Indian practice as also that of several other nations, pensions, and the relatively small amount of money needed to staff the Ministry of Defense. Intelligence, paramilitary, and nuclear weapons/R&D are not included, as is also the case with the US.
Regular Defense Budget 2017-2018[131]
The 2018-2019 budget is $43-billion,[132] even lower in percentage than the previous year. I have not updated the new breakdown, below is 2017-2018.
$40-billion at INR 64 = US$1
$21-billion pay, O & M
$15-billion equipment (Items Rs 1-million+ with life of 7-years+)
$0.650-billion border roads
$0.662 Coast Guard
$0.315 Canteen Stores Department
$0.067 Directorate General Defense Estates
$0.180 Military Engineer Services
$2-billion unclear from budget documents
Percentages to each service 2017-18
Army 56%
Navy 15%
Air Force 23%
R & D 6%
Ordnance Factories 1%
R&D 6%
Quality Assurance 0.41%
A word of explanation. Ordnance Factories are run as businesses. Their sales are charged to the defense services, the 1% is only for the administration.
For detailed 2017-18 data, please consult the official documents available online, below is only a summary:
Starting with 2017-18, Ministry of Defense Demands for grants have been consolidated from six demands (20-25) into four (20-23), by shifting the three services Army, Navy, and Air from three separate grants (23-25) to No. 22, encompassing their revenue expenditure.[133] Now the grants are:
Grant No 19 — Ministry of Defense (Miscellaneous) $31.5-billion
Grant No 20 — Defense Services - Revenue $13.5-billion
Grant No 21 — Capital Outlay on Defense Services
Grant No 22 — Ministry of Defense (Pensions)$13.4-billion
Would it kill MoD top have a single heading instead of four? Probably. Accounts do things a certain way and do not willingly change.
Counter Terror
National Security Guards ~$90-million
Nuclear weapons and satellites
N-weapons/military space (our estimate) ~$200-million; another $50-million for missile R&D already in the defense budget.
The Department of Atomic energy and the Indian Space Research Organization have a combined budget of $2.53-billion. We estimated 8% of that is for military purpose. This may not seem much, but India’s doctrine calls for a minimum deterrent. Missiles are developed by the Defense Research Development Organization, ISRO is responsible for satellites, including military ones.
Director General Quality Assurance
$130-million
Central paramilitary forces under Home Ministry 2017-18[134]
Force
US$ Million at INR 64 = USD 1
CRPF
2,790
BSF
2,430
CISF
1,040
AR
750
ITBP
750
SSB
675
NSG
128
Police
3,600
Total
12,200
Defense Security Corps
A 35,000 personnel force under the Ministry of Defense for protection of defense installations.
ABM program
The accuracy of data presented should be assessed as no more than 80%
A deployment date of 2018 for the Indian system is expected.
India has ordered 5 batteries of S-400 systems to extend Anti-Missile capabilities. Five covers most of India, but only ay extreme range. Reports spoke of 12 batteries, but the order was reduced for reasons not made public, probably an unwillingness to spend money. S-400 utilizes a variety of missiles with ranges from 40-km to 400-km. There is no independent estimate of its real capabilities as opposed to the manufacturer’s glossy sale brochure. Conversely, from announced test results, an estimate can be made for the efficiency of US ABM. My estimate is that each layer, on its own, requires three missiles fired to intercept an incoming missile. There are four layers, by range: MDI, Aegis, THAAD, and Patriot. Aegis actually forms two layers: one from warships near enemy waters, and one from warships operating off the US coast. A sixth layer, lasers, is under development.
Interceptor Sites
National Capital region (Delhi)
Mumbai
(Two sites have been announced, one in Rajasthan, possibly they will help cover Mumbai as well.)
Battle Management
Israeli BMC3I
Radars/Sensors
Long Range Tracking Radar
3 Green Pine radars (Israel) L-Band 1500-km
1 National Capital Region
1 Western border to monitor Pakistan missile tests
1 Research and Development
Swordfish Indigenous long-range tracking radar; derived from Green Pine; first tested 2009 600-km range; being extended to 1500-km
Ashvin ABM radar, 2 sites selected in northwest India
Missile Fire Control Radar
THALES-Raytheon S-band Master-A 350km-range
AEW&C aircraft
Satellites: Missile Monitoring System, deployment 2015
Phase 1
- Defense against 2000-km range missiles (Pakistan, Tibet, SLBMs from Arabian Sea/Bay of Bengal)
- Pradyumna ABM interceptor (range 50- to 80-km range) Based on Prithvi missile, 2-stage, 1st stage liquid, 2nd solid (Interim interceptor)
- Advanced missile interceptor (15- to 30-km) single stage; 8x8 Tatra launcher. Under development
- Russian X-band terminal intercept radar for interceptor missiles, to be replaced by Israeli infrared imaging radar
Point defense
Possibly Astra missile (an India developed BVR air-to-air missile, 80-km range; first 2 tests
December 2102, successful
Navy Barak 8 (India has invested in this program)
Land Barak 8, initially 18 batteries x 3 launchers x 8 missiles for IAF, to replace SA-3 by 2028. 100-km range; Extended Range in development 150-km. Because missile accelerates at Mach 2, this appears sufficient against cruise, not ballistic missiles.
India has signed for five squadrons of Russian S.400 air defense missiles, which – according to the Russians – are capable of intercepting missiles.
India has also invested in Israel’s Arrow II program. An outright purchase of Arrow would be the most logical course; however, it is said US has objected as US technologies are involved. Possibly the Indian investment is to gain access to Israeli technologies.
Tes
ts
1st: 2006, Pradyumna interceptor, success
2nd: 2007, Pradyumna, successful (simulated payload)
3rd: 2009, AAD, successful
4th: 2010 March, AAD, terminated due to to technical issues as target missile deviated
5th: 2010 July, AAD, successful
6th: 2011 March, AAD, successful
7th: 2012 February, AAD, successful
8th: 2014 April, new missile based on Prithvi, 2-stage solid-fuel, 250-km range, successful
8th: 2012 November, AAD, successful
9th: 2015 April; AD-2, failed (AD-2 is now called Ashvin)
10th: 2015 November, AAD improved, successful
12th: 2016 May, failed though officially a success[135]
11th: 2017 February; Prithvi interceptor, successful, target destroyed at 97-km altitude
13th: 2017 March, Ashvin, successful
14th: 2017 December, Ashvin, successful, considered ready for pre-deployment.
For more details, see Hemant Kumar Rout.[136] Another assessment is also available.[137]
Phase II (China)
Missiles are solid fuel
Defense against 5000-km range missiles
Improved Prithvi: max height rumored 150-km, max range rumored 80-km, Mach 5.
AD-1 interceptor Mach 5, 20-km, 2-stage, 2g. 7.5-meters length, 1300 kg, 0.5-meter diameter