The Emperor’s New Road: China and the Project of the Century

by Jonathan E. Hillman

10. Yukio Tajima, “Abe Softens Tone on Indo-Pacific to Coax China’s ASEAN Friends,” Nikkei Asian Review, November 13, 2018, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-Relations/Abe-softens-tone-on-Indo-Pacific-to-coax-China-s-ASEAN-friends.

  11. Matthew Goodman and Jonathan Hillman, “Is China Winning the Scramble for Eurasia?,” National Interest, August 21, 2017, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-new-cold-war-was-never-inevitable-21994.

  12. “Mahathir: A Winner in the War of Words?,” CNN, October 31, 2003, http://www.cnn.com/2003/WORLD/asiapcf/southeast/10/29/mahathir.west/index.html.

  13. Mahathir bin Mohamad, A Doctor in the House: The Memoirs of Tun Dr. Mahathir Mohamad (Petaling Jaya, Malaysia: MPH, 2011), 336–337.

  14. Karminder Dhillon Singh, Malaysian Foreign Policy in the Mahathir Era, 1981–2003 (Singapore: National University of Singapore Press, 2009), 59–60.

  15. Mahathir, Doctor in the House, 160–161.

  16. Japan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Japan’s Official Development Assistance White Paper 2014 (Tokyo: Ministry of Foreign Affairs, 2014), 3, https://www.mofa.go.jp/files/000119315.pdf.

  17. Robert M. Orr Jr., “The Rising Sun: Japan’s Foreign Aid to ASEAN, the Pacific Basin and the Republic of Korea,” Journal of International Affairs 41, no. 1 (Summer–Fall 1987): 39–62.

  18. Robert M. Orr Jr., The Emergence of Japan’s Foreign Aid Power (New York: Columbia University Press, 1990).

  19. Richard Ellings and Sheldon Simon, Southeast Asian Security in the New Millennium (London: Routledge, 2016), 131.

  20. Tadao Chino, quoted in Edward Lincoln, Japan’s New Global Role (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, 1993), 124.

  21. Edith Terry, “How Asia Got Rich: World Bank vs. Japanese Industrial Policy” (JPRI Working Paper 10, Japan Policy Research Institute, Oakland, CA, June 1995), http://www.jpri.org/publications/workingpapers/wp10.html.

  22. Walter Hatch and Kozo Yamamura, Asia in Japan’s Embrace: Building a Regional Production Alliance, vol. 3 (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996), 110.

  23. Hatch and Yamamura.

  24. Hatch and Yamamura, 126.

  25. David Arase, Buying Power: The Political Economy of Japan’s Foreign Aid (Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner, 1995), 109–110.

  26. James Brown and Jeff Kingston, eds., Japan’s Foreign Relations in Asia (New York: Routledge, 2018).

  27. Mark Taylor, “Dominance through Technology: Is Japan Creating a Yen Bloc in Southeast Asia?,” Foreign Affairs 74, no. 6 (1995): 14–20, https://www.jstor.org/stable/20047376?seq=1#metadata_info_tab_contents.

  28. Mahathir Mohamad, “The First Malaysia-Japan Colloquium,” Speech Collection Archives of Chief Executives, Prime Minister’s Office of Malaysia, August 27, 1984, http://www.pmo.gov.my/ucapan/?m=p&p=mahathir&id=1128.

  29. Mahathir.

  30. U.S. Congress, House, A Concurrent Resolution Relating to Predatory Tied Aid Credit, H. Con. Res. 316, introduced by Rep. Stephen L. Neal (D-NC-5), April 10, 1986, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/STATUTE-100/pdf/STATUTE-100-Pg4347.pdf.

  31. Bernard Wysocki Jr., “Guiding Hand: In Asia, the Japanese Hope to ‘Coordinate’ What Nations Produce,” Wall Street Journal, Eastern Edition, August 20, 1990, A1.

  32. As cited in Terry, “How Asia Got Rich.”

  33. Shafiqul Islam, “Foreign Aid and Burdensharing: Is Japan Free Riding to a Coprosperity Sphere in Pacific Asia?,” National Bureau of Economic Research, January 1993, https://www.nber.org/chapters/c7842.pdf.

  34. Wysocki, “Guiding Hand.”

  35. Hatch and Yamamura, Asia in Japan’s Embrace, 203.

  36. Orr, Emergence of Japan’s Foreign Aid Power, 138.

  37. Robert M. Orr Jr., “Collaboration or Conflict? Foreign Aid and U.S.-Japan Relations,” Pacific Affairs 62, no. 4 (1989): 481, https://www.jstor.org/stable/2759671.

  38. Hatch and Yamamura, Asia in Japan’s Embrace, 125.

  39. William Grimes, “The Belt & Road Initiative as Power Resource: Lessons from Japan,” Asan Forum, April 15, 2016, http://www.theasanforum.org/the-belt-road-initiative-as-power-resource-lessons-from-japan/.

  40. Orr, Emergence of Japan’s Foreign Aid Power, 132.

  41. Zhigang Wu, “Research on Japan’s ODA to China and Its Contribution to China’s Development” (presentation paper, Kyoto Sangyo University, Kyoto, March 21, 2008), https://www.cc.kyoto-su.ac.jp/project/orc/econpublic/china/documents/WUDP28.pdf.

  42. Howard French, “China’s Premier, on Japan Visit, Wears a Friendly Face,” New York Times, October 16, 2000, https://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/16/world/china-s-premier-on-japan-visit-wears-a-friendly-face.html.

  43. Bernard Gwertzman, “Malaysia, Seeing a Threat, Urges U.S. to Stop Building Up Power of China,” New York Times, July 10, 1984, https://www.nytimes.com/1984/07/10/world/malaysia-seeing-a-threat-urges-us-to-stop-building-up-power-of-china.html.

  44. Zuraidah Ibrahim, “Nothing to Fear from China, Says Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad, but Lopsided Deals Must End,” South China Morning Post, June 19, 2018, https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/geopolitics/article/2151451/nothing-fear-china-says-malaysias-mahathir-mohamad-lopsided.

  45. Deborah Brautigam, The Dragon’s Gift: The Real Story of China in Africa (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2011), 47, 50–51.

  46. Terry, “How Asia Got Rich.”

  47. Eugene Moosa, “Hosokawa to Visit China Next Month,” Reuters, February 24, 1994, accessed February 2, 2020, through Factiva, document ID: lba0000020011119dq2o02u3u.

  48. Export-Import Bank of the United States, Report to the U.S. Congress on the Export Credit Competition and the Export-Import Bank of the United States (Washington, DC: Export-Import Bank of the United States, 2007), https://www.exim.gov/sites/default/files/newsreleases/2006CompetitivenessReport-1.pdf. China has become a major provider of technical assistance as well, training nearly fifty thousand people from developing countries from 2012 to 2014, by its own count. One of its leadership academies offers ten-day programs for ASEAN officials. See Xinhua, “China’s Foreign Aid,” Reliefweb, July 10, 2014, https://reliefweb.int/report/china/chinas-foreign-aid; He Huifeng, “In a Remote Corner of China, Beijing Is Trying to Export Its Model by Training Foreign Officials the Chinese Way,” South China Morning Post, July 14, 2018, https://www.scmp.com/news/china/economy/article/2155203/remote-corner-china-beijing-trying-export-its-model-training.

  49. “SE-Asia Railway Idea Revived,” BBC, November 4, 2001, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/1637032.stm.

  50. Working Group on the Trans-Asian Railway Network, Building the Missing Links in the Trans-Asian Railway Network (Busan, South Korea: United Nations, Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, 2017), https://www.unescap.org/sites/default/files/e-E_ESCAP_TARN_WG(5)4_E.pdf.

  51. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Trans-Asian Railway Route Requirements: Development of the Trans-Asian Railway in the Indo-China and ASEAN Subregion (New York: United Nations, 1996), https://www.unescap.org/asean/publications/Trans-Asian_V3.pdf.

  52. Francis Chan and Wahyudi Soeriaatmadja, “Indonesia’s National Rail Network Aims for More Growth, Less Inequality,” Straits Times, September 4, 2017, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/aim-more-growth-less-inequality.

  53. Clark has produced a second version of the Southeast Asia railway map that distinguishes between existing and proposed lines.

  54. Working Group on the Trans-Asian Railway Network, Building the Missing Links.

  55. Shawn Crispin, “Misaligned Rails Keep SEAsia Delinked from China,” Asia Times, May 4, 2018, https://cms.ati.ms/2018/05/misaligned-rails-keep-seasia-delinked-from-china/.

  56. Mahathir Mohamad, “The Occasion of the Official Visit to the Republic of Kazakhstan,” Speech Collection Archives of Chief Executives, Prime Minister’s Office of Malaysia, July 18, 1996, http://www.pmo.gov.my/ucapan/index.php?qt=railway&m=p&p=all&id=1304.

  57. Mahathir.

  58. “Study: China Section of Pan-Asian Railwa
y Feasible,” China.org.cn, June 6, 2006, http://www.china.org.cn/english/2006/Jun/170560.htm.

  59. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People’s Republic of China, “Work Together to Open a New Chapter in China-ASEAN Relations,” January 14, 2007, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjdt_665385/zyjh_665391/t290185.shtml; “Wen: China to Speed Up Pan-Asian Rail Link,” China Daily, January 15, 2007, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2007-01/15/content_783295.htm.

  60. Ministry of Foreign Affairs, “Remarks by Ambassador Xu Bu at Seminar on the 25th Anniversary of China-ASEAN,” June 5, 2016, https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/zwjg_665342/zwbd_665378/t1369567.shtml.

  61. James Reilly, “A Norm-Taker or a Norm-Maker? Chinese Aid in Southeast Asia,” Journal of Contemporary China 21, no. 73 (2012): 89.

  62. Joshua Lipes, “High-Speed Railway Delay,” Radio Free Asia, April 26, 2011, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/laos/railway-04262011171130.html.

  63. “China’s Fast Track to Influence: Building a Railway in Laos,” Radio Free Asia Laos Service, March 15, 2018, https://www.rfa.org/english/news/special/laoschinarailway/.

  64. Patpon Sabpaitoon, “The Great Rail Dilemma,” Bangkok Post, July 22, 2018, https://www.bangkokpost.com/news/special-reports/1507722/the-great-rail-dilemma.

  65. New China TV, “Life-Changing! China-Laos Railway Brings New Hope to Lao Single Mum,” YouTube, August 30, 2018, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AOvX70zsgE8.

  66. Will Doig, High-Speed Empire: Chinese Expansion and the Future of Southeast Asia (New York: Columbia University Press, 2018), 37.

  67. Agatha Kratz, “Exporting ‘Harmony’ and ‘Rejuvenation’: Explaining the Uneven Track Record of China’s Global High-Speed Rail Expansion” (PhD diss., King’s College London, 2019), 236.

  68. Murray Hiebert, Under Beijing’s Shadow: Southeast Asia’s China Challenge, (Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield, 2020).

  69. World Bank, Indonesia Economic Quarterly: Closing the Gap (Jakarta: World Bank, October 2017), http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/677741506935868706/IEQ-Oct-2017-ENG.pdf.

  70. Kratz, “Exporting ‘Harmony’ and ‘Rejuvenation,’ ” 171; Leo Jegho, “China to Invest US$50 Billion in Indonesia’s Infrastructure Projects,” Global Indonesian Voices, April 27, 2015, http://web.archive.org/web/20160422234034/http://www.globalindonesianvoices.com/20456/china-to-invest-us50-billion-in-indonesias-infrastructure-projects/.

  71. Kratz, “Exporting ‘Harmony’ and ‘Rejuvenation.’ ”

  72. Hong Zhao, “Chinese and Japanese Infrastructure Investment in Southeast Asia: From Rivalry to Cooperation?” (IDE Discussion Paper, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization [IDE-JETRO], Chiba City, Japan, 2018), http://hdl.handle.net/2344/00050160; Kratz, “Exporting ‘Harmony’ and ‘Rejuvenation,’ ” 155.

  73. Shotaro Tani, “Widodo Slammed for Infrastructure Policy in Second TV Debate,” Nikkei Asian Review, February 18, 2019, https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/Widodo-slammed-for-infrastructure-policy-in-second-TV-debate.

  74. Nur Asyiqin Mohamad Salleh, “Jakarta-Bandung High-Speed Rail Project Back on Track, Says Indonesia’s Investment Chief,” Straits Times, May 8, 2019, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se-asia/jakarta-bandung-high-speed-rail-project-back-on-track-says-indonesias-investment-chief.

  75. Kratz, “Exporting ‘Harmony’ and ‘Rejuvenation,’ ” 235–236.

  76. Shotaro Tani, “Indonesia Minister: Japan, China Rivalry Good for Asian Infrastructure,” Nikkei Asian Review, May 5, 2017, https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Indonesia-minister-Japan-China-rivalry-good-for-Asian-infrastructure.

  77. Doig, High-Speed Empire.

  78. Chester Tay, “Mustapa: Malaysia-China RM144 Bil Deal Involves Three Components,” Edge Markets, November 10, 2016, http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/mustapa-malaysia-china-rm144-bil-deal-involves-three-components.

  79. Najib Razak, “Fruits Harvested from Seeds of Trust,” China Daily, November 2, 2016, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/opinion/2016-11/02/content_27245852.htm.

  80. Tom Wright and Bradley Hope, Billion Dollar Whale: The Man Who Fooled Wall Street, Hollywood, and the World (New York: Hachette Books, 2018).

  81. Tom Wright and Simon Clark, “Investigators Believe Money Flowed to Malaysian Leader Najib’s Accounts amid 1MDB Probe,” Wall Street Journal, July 2, 2015, https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10130211234592774869404581083700187014570. For a timeline and additional coverage, see “Malaysia’s 1MDB Decoded,” Wall Street Journal, http://graphics.wsj.com/1mdb-decoded/.

  82. Sarawak Report, “How Najib Nearly Sold Out Malaysia to China,” October 26, 2018, http://www.sarawakreport.org/2018/10/how-najib-nearly-sold-out-malaysia-to-china/; Rozanna Latiff and Joseph Sipalan, “Malaysia Had Plan to Use Chinese Money to Bail Out 1MDB Court Hears,” Reuters, September 4, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-politics-najib/malaysia-had-plan-to-use-chinese-money-to-bail-out-1mdb-court-hears-idUSKCN1VP1DS.

  83. Bandar Malaysia, “Key Features,” accessed January 7, 2019, https://web.archive.org/web/20160725121420/http://www.bandarmalaysia.my:80/key-features.

  84. “Bandar Malaysia in Turmoil as Government Cancels Development Deal,” Global Construction Review, May 10, 2017, http://www.globalconstructionreview.com/news/bandar-malaysia-turm7oil-gover7nment-canc7els/.

  85. Tony Pua, “Tony Pua: Who Authorised Termination of Bandar Malaysia Deal?,” Edge Markets, May 11, 2017, http://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/tony-pua-who-authorised-termination-bandar-malaysia-deal.

  86. Najib Razak, “Why Malaysia Supports China’s Belt and Road,” South China Morning Post, May 12, 2017, updated July 7, 2017, https://www.scmp.com/comment/insight-opinion/article/2094094/why-malaysia-supports-chinas-belt-and-road.

  87. Mahathir bin Mohamad, “FDI,” Chedet (blog), January 6, 2017, http://chedet.cc/?p=2394.

  88. Stefania Palma, “Malaysia Suspends $22bn China-Backed Projects,” Financial Times, July 4, 2018, https://www.ft.com/content/409942a4-7f80-11e8-bc55-50daf11b720d.

  89. Mahathir, Doctor in the House, 756–757.

  90. Yiswaree Palansamy, “Dr M: We Support China’s Belt and Road Initiative, but . . . ,” Malay Mail, May 10, 2018, https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2018/05/10/dr-m-we-support-chinas-belt-and-road-initiative-but/1629327.

  91. Prime Minister’s Office of Malaysia, “Press Statement by YAB Prime Minister Tun Dr. Mahathir Bin Mohamad on East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) Project,” April 15, 2019, https://www.pmo.gov.my/2019/04/press-statement-by-yab-prime-minister-tun-dr-mahathir-bin-mohamad-on-east-coast-rail-link-ecrl-project/.

  92. Joseph Sipalan, “Malaysia to Revive Multi-Billion Dollar Project Linked to China,” Reuters, April 19, 2019, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-malaysia-china-project/malaysia-to-revive-multi-billion-dollar-project-linked-to-china-idUSKCN1RV0K0.

  93. Prime Minister’s Office of Malaysia, “Belt and Road Initiative Not China’s Plan to Dominate—PM,” April 28, 2019, https://www.pmo.gov.my/2019/04/belt-and-road-initiative-not-chinas-plan-to-dominate-pm/.

  94. Bent Flyvbjerg, “What You Should Know about Megaprojects, and Why: An Overview,” Project Management Journal 45, no. 2 (April–May 2014): 6–19, https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1409/1409.0003.pdf.

  95. Prime Minister’s Office of Malaysia, “Speech at the High-Level Meeting of Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation,” April 26, 2019, https://www.pmo.gov.my/2019/04/speech-at-the-high-level-meeting-of-belt-and-road-forum-for-international-cooperation/.

  Chapter Seven. The Black Hole: Pakistan

  1. For an authoritative account of China-Pakistan relations in the years leading up to the BRI’s formal announcement, see Andrew Small, The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2015).

  2. Jeremy Page and Saeed Shah, “China Readies $46 Billion for Pakistan Trade Route,” Wall Street Journal, April 16, 2015, https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-to-unveil-billions-of-dollars-in-pakistan-investment-1429214705.

  3. U
SAID, “Foreign Aid Explorer: Data (Country Summary),” accessed June 26, 2019, https://explorer.usaid.gov/data.

  4. Prime Minister’s Office, Islamic Republic of Pakistan, “Visit of President Xi to Start a New Chapter in Pak-China Friendship: PM,” press release, April 20, 2015, http://www.pmo.gov.pk/press_release_detailes.php?pr_id=917.

  5. China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, “Official Message,” accessed April 19, 2019, http://cpec.gov.pk/messages/1.

  6. Prime Minister’s Office, Islamic Republic of Pakistan, “Prime Minister Imran Khan Has Said That the Government Accords Top Priority to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) Project,” press release, April 11, 2019, http://pmo.gov.pk/press_release_detailes.php?pr_id=2791.

  7. Christine Lagarde, “Pakistan and Emerging Market in the World Economy” (speech, Islamabad, Pakistan, October 24, 2016), International Monetary Fund, October 24, 2016, https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2016/10/24/SP102416-Pakistan-Emerging-Markets-in-the-World-Economy.

  8. World Bank, “CPEC Offers Enormous Potential to Boost Pakistan Economy, Report Says,” press release, March 22, 2018, https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2018/03/22/cpec-offers-enormous-potential-boost-pakistan-economy.

  9. Daniel Markey, “Why the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Will Worsen Tensions in South Asia,” War on the Rocks, September 28, 2017, https://warontherocks.com/2017/09/why-the-china-pakistan-economic-corridor-will-worsen-tensions-in-south-asia/.

  10. Khurram Husain, “Exclusive: CPEC Master Plan Revealed,” Dawn, June 21, 2017, https://www.dawn.com/news/1333101.

  11. Robert D. Kaplan, The Return of Marco Polo’s World: War, Strategy, and American Interests in the Twenty-First Century (New York: Random House, 2019), 28.

  12. Pew Research Center, “Opinion of China,” Global Indicators Database, accessed February 2, 2020, https://www.pewresearch.org/global/database/indicator/24/country/pk. See also R. J. Reinhard and Zacc Ritter, “China’s Leadership Gains Global Admirers,” Gallup, March 4, 2019, https://news.gallup.com/poll/247196/china-leadership-gains-global-admirers.aspx.

  13. Gustav F. Papanek, Pakistan’s Development: Social Goals and Private Incentives (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 1967), 1.