The New Silk Roads

by Peter Frankopan

  22. IATA, 20 Year Passenger Forecast Update, 24 October 2017.

  23. Aaron Chong, “Boeing sees demand for 500,000 new pilots in Asia-Pacific,” FlightGlobal, 7 December 2016.

  24. Australian and International Pilots Association, “Australian pilots land $750,000 in China,” 28 December 2017.

  25. Richard Weiss, “Pilot Shortage Forces World’s Biggest Long-Haul Airline to Cut Flights,” Bloomberg, 11 April 2018.

  26. Wolfgang Georg Arlt, China’s Outbound Tourism (London, 2006), p. 19.

  27. United Nations World Tourism Organisation, Press release, “Strong outbound tourism demand from both traditional and emerging markets in 2017,” 23 April 2018.

  28. CLSA, “Chinese outbound tourists—new 2017 report,” 19 July 2017. For estimates of Chinese passport holders, see, for example, Goldman Sachs, The Asian Consumer, “The Chinese Tourist Boom,” 20 November 2015.

  29. The Donkey Sanctuary, Under the Skin. The emerging trade in donkey skins and its implications for donkey welfare and livelihoods (January 2017).

  30. BBC News, “Niger bans the export of donkeys after Asian demand,” 6 September 2016; Media Group Tajikistan Asia Plus, “Donkey market booms in Tajikistan,” 4 January 2017.

  31. Kimon de Greef, “Rush for Donkey Skins in China Draws Wildlife Traffickers,” National Geographic, 22 September 2017.

  32. Filipa Sá, “The Effect of Foreign Investors on Local Housing Markets: Evidence from the UK,” CEPR Discussion Paper, No. DP11658 (2016), pp. 1–43.

  33. Emanuele Midolo, “Russian investors: Welcome to Londongrad,” Propertyweek, 13 April 2018.

  34. Yuan Yang and Emily Feng, “China’s buyers defy the law to satisfy thirst for foreign homes,” Financial Times, 13 March 2018.

  35. Esha Vaish and Dasha Afansieva, “Hong Kong property investors go trophy hunting in London despite Brexit,” Reuters, 21 August 2017.

  36. Matt Sheehan, “How Chinese Real Estate Money is Transforming the San Francisco Bay Area,” MacroPolo, 22 August 2017; Paul Vieira, Rachel Pannett and Dominique Fong, “Western Cities Want to Slow Flood of Chinese Home Buying. Nothing Works,” Wall Street Journal, 6 June 2018.

  37. Dinçer Gökçe, “Kiler, Sapphire’de 47 daire birden sattı,” Hürriyet, 21 February 2017.

  38. Faseeh Mangi, “135 Million Millennials Drive World’s Fastest Retail Market,” Bloomberg, 28 September 2017.

  39. Euromonitor International, “10 Facts about India,” 12 January 2014. For income distribution to the top earners, see L. Chancel and T. Piketty, Indian income inequality, 1922–2015: From British Raj to Billionaire Raj?, World Inequality Database Working Paper Series No. 2017/11.

  40. Boston Consulting Group, The New Indian: The Many Facets of a Changing Customer (March 2017).

  41. Bain & Co., Luxury Goods Worldwide Market Study, Fall–Winter 2017, 22 December 2017; Yiling Pan, “Luxury Spending to Double in China Over Next 10 Years, Says McKinsey,” Jing Daily, 15 June 2017.

  42. CPP Luxury, “Prada Group opens seven stores in Xi’an China,” 25 May 2018.

  43. Astrid Wendlandt, “Chanel snaps up four companies to secure high-end silk supplies,” Reuters, 22 July 2016; Yiling Pan, “China Wants Fewer Burberry and BV Handbags, More Chanel and Hermès,” Jing Daily, 23 April 2018.

  44. Angelica LaVito, “Starbucks is opening a store in China every 15 hours,” South China Morning Post, 6 December 2017.

  45. Cleofe Maceda, “UAE’s residents’ luxury goods spending to reach more than $8 billion in 2017,” Gulf News, 20 November 2017.

  46. Associated Press, “China’s new baby policy lifts stocks, sinks condom maker,” 30 October 2015.

  47. Credit Suisse, Spotlighting China’s new two child policy, 30 October 2015.

  48. “Dolce and Gabbana’s racism debacle in China could be one of the costliest brand missteps ever,” Quartz, 26 November 2018.

  49. Zhong Sheng, “人民日报钟声：中国公民合法、正当权益不容侵犯,” People’s Daily, 9 December 2018.

  50. Leyland Cecco, “Canada Goose shares slide amid Beijing-Ottawa row over Huawei CFO arrest,” Guardian, 12 December 2018.

  51. CLSA, Chinese Outbound Tourism—New 2017 Report (2017).

  52. World Bank, “GDP Growth (annual percentage)” at https://data.worldbank.org/​indicator/​NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG.

  53. Wouter Baan, Lan Luan, Felix Poh, Daniel Zipser, “Double-clicking on the Chinese consumer. 2017 China Consumer Report,” McKinsey & Company, 2017.

  54. Bangalore Water Supply and Sewerage Board, Bengaluru Water Supply and Sewerage Project (Phase 3) in the State of Karnataka, India. Final Report (2017); Times of India, “Water Crisis: Is Bengaluru heading for Day Zero?,” 13 February 2018.

  55. For Russia, see Orlando Figes, A People’s Tragedy: The Russian Revolution, 1891–1924 (London, 1996), pp. 84ff, esp. pp. 111–15; for Turkey, Michael M. Gunter, “Political Instability in Turkey During the 1970s,” Conflict Quarterly 9.1 (1989), pp. 63–77; Sabri Sayari, “Political Violence and Terrorism in Turkey, 1976–80: A Retrospective Analysis,” Terrorism and Political Violence 22.2 (2010), pp. 198–215.

  56. See, for example, Ronak Patel and Frederick Burkle, “Rapid Urbanization and the Growing Threat of Violence and Conflict: A 21st Century Crisis,” Prehospital and Disaster Medicine 27.2 (2012), pp. 194–7.

  57. UN Habitat, Urbanization and Development. Emerging Futures. World Cities Report 2016 (2016), p. 5.

  58. Amnesty International, “Saudi Arabia: Reports of torture and sexual harassment of detained activists,” 20 November 2018.

  59. Warren P. Strobel, “CIA Intercepts Underpin Assessment Saudi Crown Prince Targeted Khashoggi,” Wall Street Journal, 1 December 2018.

  60. Abdullah bin Zayed al Nahyan, “In the Middle East, momentum for women must pick up speed,” Globe and Mail, 30 May 2018; Al-Jazeera, “UAE rights activist Ahmed Mansoor sentenced to 10 years in prison,” 30 May 2018.

  61. State Council of China, “China looks to regulate city growth,” 22 February 2016.

  62. Adam Schreck, “Isolation by the West fuels a tech start-up boom in Iran,” Phys Org, 5 June 2017.

  63. Techrasa Press Release, “Silk Roads Start-up Announces Iran’s Top 10 Start-ups,” 5 November 2017.

  64. For a useful infographic, see https://www.statista.com/​chart/​10012/​fintech-adoption-rates/.

  65. Evelyn Cheng, “How Ant Financial grew larger than Goldman Sachs,” CNBC, 8 June 2018.

  66. Shrutika Verma, “Paytm valuation pegged at $10 billion after secondary share sale,” Livemint, 23 January 2018.

  67. See for example Indikator.ru, “Предприниматели стали меньше финансировать науку,” 2 November 2017.

  68. United States Senate Committee on Armed Services, “Advance Policy Questions for Lieutenant General Paul Nakasone, ISA Nominee for Commander, US Cyber Command,” 1 March 2018.

  69. Pavel Kantyshev, “Путин предложил госкомпаниям закупать российский софт,” Vedemosti, 30 March 2016.

  70. US Computer Emergency Readiness Team, Alert (TA18-106A), “Russian State-Sponsored Cyber Actors Targeting Network Infrastructure Devices,” 16 April 2018.

  71. See, for example, Sergei Brilev, “Хочется плакать”: вирус атаковал Минздрав, МЧС, МВД, РЖД, “Сбербанк” и “Мегафон,” Vesti.ru, 13 May 2017.

  72. RIA Novosti, “Клименко объяснил слова главы Роскомнадзора о ‘блокировке Facebook,’ ” 26 September 2017.

  73. Donie O’Sullivan, Drew Griffin and Curt Devine, “Russian company had access to Facebook user data through apps,” CNN Tech, 11 July 2018.

  74. Interfax, “Роскомн
адзор будет блокировать инструменты для обхода запрета на Telegram по запросу,” 16 April 2018.

  75. See Ella George, “Purges and Paranoia,” London Review of Books 40.10 (2018), pp. 22–32; Turkish Minute, “Turkish govt ready to block ‘abnormal’ social media messages on election day,” 26 May 2018.

  76. Sarah Zheng, “Beijing tries to pull the plug on VPNs in internet ‘clean-up,’ ” South China Morning Post, 13 July 2017.

  77. See, for example, Peter Frankopan, The Silk Roads: A New History of the World (London, 2015), pp. 202ff.

  78. Madeleine Albright, “Will We Stop Trump Before It’s Too Late,” New York Times, 8 April 2018.

  THE ROADS TO THE HEART OF THE WORLD

  1. Jason Blevins, “Donald Trump, in Grand Junction, says he will ‘drain the swamp in Washington, D.C.,’ ” Denver Post, 18 October 2016.

  2. Jonathan Swan, “Trump calls for ‘hell of a lot worse than waterboarding,’ ” The Hill, 6 February 2016.

  3. Cassandra Vinograd and Alexandra Jaffe, “Donald Trump in Indiana Says China is ‘Raping’ America,” CNBC, 2 May 2016.

  4. White House, Presidential Memorandum Regarding Withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership Negotiations and Agreement, 23 January 2017.

  5. White House, Statement by President Trump on the Paris Climate Accord, 1 June 2017.

  6. White House, “Executive Order Protecting the Nation from Foreign Terrorist Entry into the United States,” 27 January 2017.

  7. White House, “Remarks by President Trump on the Policy of the United States Towards Cuba,” 16 June 2017.

  8. Shawn Donnan, “Is there political method in Donald Trump’s trade madness?,” Financial Times, 23 March 2018.

  9. http://www.europarl.europa.eu/​resources/​library/​media/​20180411RES01553/​20180411RES01553.pdf.

  10. Reuters, “EU is not at war with Poland, says EU’s Juncker,” 17 January 2018.

  11. Agence France-Presse, “Italy threatens EU funding in migrant row,” 25 August 2018.

  12. The Herald, “Boris Johnson: EU tariffs would be ‘insane’ if UK backs Brexit,” 21 June 2016.

  13. BBC News, “Liam Fox warning of customs union ‘sellout,’ ” 27 February 2018; Chloe Farand, “UK government post-Brexit plans to create Africa free-trade zone are being internally branded ‘Empire 2.0,’ ” Independent, 6 March 2017.

  14. UK Prime Minister’s Office, press release, “PM: UK should become the global leader in free trade,” 4 September 2016.

  15. Association of Southeast Asian Nations, http://asean.org/​?static_post=rcep-regional-comprehensive-economic-partnership; Yasuyuki Sawada, quoted in Asian Development Bank, International Financing Review Asia. Special Report: Growing up Fast (2018), p. 9.

  16. Turkmenistan.ru, “В Туркменистане открыт новый железнодорожный мост Туркменабат—Фараб,” 7 March 2017.

  17. AKIPress, “CTSO to help Tajikistan to reinforce its border with Afghanistan,” 11 June 2018; Novosti Radio Azattyk, “Состоялась первая встреча глав оборонных ведомств Кыргызстана и Узбекистана,”13 June 2018.

  18. Dana Omirgazy, “Shymkent hosts first Kazakh-Uzbek business forum,” Astana Times, 25 May 2018.

  19. Uzbekistan National News Agency, press release, “The Year of Uzbekistan in Kazakhstan and the Year of Kazakhstan in Uzbekistan will be held,” 16 September 2017.

  20. Uzbekistan National News Agency, Press release, “Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan: dynamic development of cooperation based on friendship and brotherhood,” 2 March 2018.

  21. AzerNews, “Trade turnover between Uzbekistan and Tajikistan doubles,” 22 June 2018.

  22. Tasnim News Agency, “Grounds Paved for Long-Lasting Cooperation between Iran, Azerbaijan: Official,” 4 June 2018.

  23. Pahjwok Afghan News, “Afghanistan, Tajikistan sign two co-operation accords,” 24 June 2018.

  24. Simon Parani, Let’s not exaggerate: Southern Gas Corridor prospects to 2030, Oxford Institute for Energy Studies Paper NG 135 (July 2018).

  25. Fawad Yousafzai, “Work on CASA-1000 power project in full swing: Tajik diplomant,” The Nation, 19 July 2018.

  26. Dispatch News Desk, “Kyrgyzstan keen to improve bilateral trade with Pakistan: Envoy,” 10 May 2018.

  27. TASS, “ЕАЭС и Иран завершают подготовку соглашения о зоне свободной торговли,” 9 April 2018.

  28. Nicholas Trickett, “Reforming Customs, Uzbekistan Nods Towards the Eurasian Economic Union,” The Diplomat, 26 April 2018.

  29. United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, “President of Uzbekistan calls to develop reliable mechanisms of co-operation in Central Asia at the international conference in Samarkand,” 10 November 2017.

  30. See, for example, Raikhan Tashtemkhanova, Zhanar Medeubayeva, Aizhan Serikbayeva and Madina Igimbayeva, “Territorial and Border Issues in Central Asia: Analysis of the Reasons, Current State and Perspectives,” The Anthropologist 22.3 (2015), pp. 518–25; International Crisis Group, “Central Asia: Border Disputes and Conflict Potential,” Asia Report 33 (2002).

  31. For the draft agreement, see Kommersant, “Море для своих Пять стран договорились о разделе Каспия,” 23 June 2018.

  32. Bruce Pannier, “A landmark Caspian agreement—and what It resolves,” Qishloq Ovozi, 9 August 2018.

  33. Interfax, “Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan agree to swap land on border,” 14 August 2018.

  34. Astana Times, “Kazakhstan resolves all Central Asian border issues, announces Kazakh President,” 20 April 2018.

  35. Virpi Stucki, Kai Wegerich, Muhammad Mizanur Rahaman and Olli Varis, Water and Security in Central Asia. Solving a Rubik’s Cube (New York, 2014); Suzanne Jensen, Z. Mazhitova and Rolf Zetterström, “Environmental pollution and child health in the Aral Sea region in Kazakhstan,” Science of the Total Environment 206.2–3 (1997), pp. 187–93.

  36. Fergana Informationnov agentstvo, “Соляная буря превысила допустимую концентрацию пыли на северо-западе Узбекистана в шесть раз,” 27 May 2018; RIA Novosti, “Белая пыль неизвестного происхождения накрыла столицу Туркмении,” 28 May 2018.

  37. Matt Warren, “Once Written Off for Dead, the Aral Sea Is Now Full of Life,” National Geographic, 16 March 2018.

  38. United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, “Drought grips large parts of Afghanistan,” 6 June 2018.

  39. Ben Farmer and Akhtat Makoli, “Afghanistan faces worst drought in decades, as UN warns 1.4 million people need help,” The Telegraph, 22 July 2018.

  40. Igor Severskiy, “Water related problems of Central Asia: some results of the (GIWA) international water assessment program,” Ambio 33 (2004), pp. 52–62.

  41. Albek Zhupankhan, Kamshat Tussupova and Ronny Berndtsson, “Water in Kazakhstan, a key Central Asian water management,” Hydrological Sciences Journal 63.5 (2018), pp. 752–62.

  42. F. M. Shakil, “New Indian dam threatens to parch Pakistan,” Asia Times, 28 May 2018.

  43. Khalid Mustafa, “India out to damage Pakistan’s water interests on Kabul river,” The News, 5 June 2016; Jehangir Khattak, “Pakistan’s unfolding water disaster,” Daily Times, 2 June 2018; Nirupama Subramanian, “In Kishanganga dam security, more than Pakistan shelling, sabotage a concern,” Indian Express, 23 May 2018.

  44. Hongkai Gaa et al, “Modelling glacier variation and its impact on water resource in the Urumqi Glacier No. 1 in Central Asia,” Science of the Total Environment 844 (2018), 1160–70.

&nb
sp; 45. Babak Dehghanpisheh, “Water crisis spurs protests in Iran,” Reuters, 29 March 2018; Shashank Bengali and Ramin Mostaghim, “A long-simmering factor in Iran protests: climate change,” Los Angeles Times, 17 January 2018.

  46. Khamenei.ir, “Persian New Year 1397: Support for Iranian Products,” 20 March 2018.

  47. Trend News Agency, “Water shortage hits Iran’s hydroelectric power plants,” 4 June 2018.

  48. Tasnim News Agency, “Afghanistan Committed to Supplying Iran’s Water Share, Zarif Says,” 6 May 2018.

  49. Address by HE Mr. Shavkat Mirziyoyev, President of the Republic of Uzbekistan at the General Debate of the 72nd Session of the United Nations General Assembly, 19 September 2017. For the full text, see https://gadebate.un.org/​sites/​default/​files/​gastatements/​72/​uz_en.pdf.

  50. Human Rights Watch Report, “Uzbekistan: A Year in to New Presidency, Cautious Hope for Change,” 25 October 2017; Human Rights Watch Report, “Time to Seek Hard Commitments on Uzbekistan’s Human Rights Record,” 9 May 2018.

  51. Committee to Protect Journalists, “Uzbekistan releases remaining jailed journalists,” 7 May 2018.

  52. Freedom House, Uzbekistan: the Year After, August 2017.

  53. Andrew Higgins, “As Authoritarianism Spreads, Uzbekistan Goes the Other Way,” New York Times, 1 April 2018; Editorial Board, “A Hopeful Moment for Uzbekistan,” New York Times, 13 April 2018.

  54. Human Rights Watch, “US: Focus on Rights as Uzbek Leader Visits,” 15 May 2018.

  55. Luca Anceschi, “Modernising authoritarianism in Uzbekistan,” Open Democracy, 9 July 2018.

  56. Trend News Agency, “Ashgabat and Dushanbe hold talks on consular issues,” 20 April 2018.

  57. Turkmen Petroleum, “ ‘Узбекнефтегаз’ о планах работы на морских шельфах в Азербайджане и Туркменистане,” 27 June 2017.

  58. Anadolu Agency, “Train service linking Baku-Tbilisi-Kars launched,” 30 October 2017; Reuters, “First freight train from China arrives in Iran in ‘Silk Road’ boost” media, 16 February 2016; Xinhua, “First China–Britain freight train reaches London,” 18 January 2017.