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The New Silk Roads

Page 24

by Peter Frankopan


  59. Mehr News Agency, “Iran–Kazakhstan transit potentials complementary: Press. Rouhani,” 12 August 2018.

  60. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, “Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s remarks and answers,” 7 April 2016.

  61. Financial Express, “India-Iran-Russia resume talks on activating key trade corridor,” 7 April 2018.

  62. P. Stoban, “India Gears Up to Enter the Eurasian Integration Path,” Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, 7 June 2017.

  63. Cited by Mohsen Shariantinia, “Sanctions threaten Iran’s dream of becoming Eurasian transport hub,” Al-Monitor, 20 July 2018.

  64. Times of Oman, “You could soon travel visa-free to Kazakhstan from Oman,” 8 May 2018.

  65. Kazinform, “Silk Visa to be launched in early 2019,” 21 December 2018.

  66. Kamila Aliyeva, “Five Nations agree to create Lapis Lazuli transport corridor,” AzerNews, 15 November 2017.

  67. Dispatch Daily News, “Turkmenistan will build Ashgabat–Turkmenabat Autobahn,” 19 June 2018.

  68. Eurasianet, “Turkmenistan’s new $1.5 billion port: Show over substance,” 3 May 2018.

  69. Туркменистан сегодня, “Морская гавань Туркменбаши отмечена международными наградами,” 2 May 2018.

  70. Turkmenistan.ru, “Ashgabat enters Guinness Book of World Records as most white-marble city,” 26 May 2013. For a summary of all the world records, see https://www.turkmenistan-kultur.at/​oesterreich739-guinness-book.html.

  71. Apa, “Azərbaycan, İran və Rusiya elektroenergetika sistemlərinin birləşdirilməsi üzrə işçi qrup yaradacaq,” 26 April 2018.

  72. Rashid Shirinov, “Azerbaijan, Iran sign agreement on electricity sale,” AzerNews, 13 April 2018.

  73. Tehran Times, “Rail freight transport in Iran up 55%,” 14 August 2017.

  74. Iran Daily, “Iran’s transit revenues up by 20%,” 10 April 2018.

  75. Anadolu Agency, “Turkey, Kazakhstan look to boost ties ‘in all areas,’ ” 19 April 2018.

  76. Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Kazakhstan, “Chairman and judges to Astana International Financial Centre Court take oath,” 7 December 2017.

  77. Dawn, “Bonhomie marks opening of TAPI gas pipeline,” 24 February 2018.

  78. Eurasianet, “Reports: Pakistan pushes through accelerated plan for TAPI,” 2 May 2018.

  79. Pashtun Times, “Taliban announce stout support for TAPI gas pipeline project,” 23 February 2018.

  80. Anisa Shaheed, “Taliban Discussing Peace Offer, says Former Member,” ToloNews, 11 April 2018.

  81. See for example UzDaily, “Представители Узбекистана провели рабочие встречи с движением “Талибан,” 18 June 2018.

  82. Associated Press, “NATO Backs Afghan Leader’s Offer of Talks With the Taliban,” 27 April 2018.

  83. Department of Defense, “Department of Defense Press Briefing by General Nicholson via teleconference from Kabul, Afghanistan,” 22 August 2018.

  84. US Department of State, Office of Inspector General, “Operation Freedom’s Sentinel: Report to the United States Congress, 1 January 2018–31 March 2018” (2018).

  85. Bob Woodward, Fear: Trump in the White House (London, 2018), p. 221.

  86. Gordon Lubold and Jessica Donati, “Trump Orders Big Troop Reduction in Afghanistan,” Wall Street Journal, 20 December 2018.

  87. See, for example, Reuters, “Taliban fighters seize district in northern Afghanistan,” 4 May 2018.

  88. US Geological Survey, “Preliminary Assessment of Non-Fuel Mineral Resources of Afghanistan, 2007” (October 2007).

  89. Global Witness, War in the Treasury of the People. Afghanistan, lapis lazuli and the battle for mineral wealth (May 2016)

  90. Global Witness, Talc: The Everyday Mineral Funding Afghan Insurgents. How talc from Afghanistan’s opaque and poorly regulated mining sector is helping fuel the Islamic State and Taliban (May 2018).

  91. Uran Botobekov, “ISIS Uses Central Asians for Suicide Missions,” The Diplomat, 1 December 2016; Edward Lemon, Pathways to Violent Extremism: evidence for Tajik recruits to Islamic State (2018).

  92. Mohammed. Elshimi, Raffaello Pantucci, Sarah Lain and Nadine Salman, Understanding the Factors Contributing to Radicalisation Among Central Asian Labour Migrants in Russia, Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, Occasional Papers (2018).

  93. Fikret Dolukhanov, “Uzbekistan, Tajikistan to hold joint military drills for first time,” Trend News Agency, 18 April 2018. TASS, “Россия и Узбекистан дали старт совместному антитеррористическому учению,” 4 October 2017; Fakhir Rizvi, “China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Tajikistan to conduct joint Counter-terrorism Exercise,” Urdu Point, 26 April 2018.

  94. Indian Defence Ministry spokesman, quoted in Hindustan Times, “India, Kazakhstan armies begin joint military exercises in Himchal Pradesh,” 2 November 2017.

  95. TASS, “Более трех тысяч военных примут участие в учениях ШОС “Мирная миссия—2018” на Урале,” 4 June 2018.

  96. Dipanjan Roy Chaudhury, “First joint military drills for India and Pakistan courtesy SCO,” Economic Times, 9 June 2018.

  97. PressTV, “Iran, Pakistan to share border or peace, friendship: Pakistani Army,” 29 December 2017; Mehr News Agency, “Iran, Pakistan determined to boost border security,” 12 March 2018. For the summoning of the Iranian ambassador to Pakistan, Al-Jazeera, “Iran threatens to hit ‘terror safe havens’ in Pakistan,” 9 May 2017.

  98. Financial Tribune, “Iran Welcomes Gas Swap Deals with Turkmenistan,” 3 April 2018; Iran Daily, “Turkmenistan, Iran, to take gas dispute to intl. arbitration,” 5 December 2017.

  99. AKIPress, “Turkmenistan lodges lawsuit against Iran in International Court of Arbitration,” 17 August 2018.

  100. Ozodlik, “Бердымухамедов вызвал к себе руководство компании, строившей ашхабадский аэропорт из-за дефекта здания,” 13 January 2017.

  101. Bruce Pannier, “Good News for Uzbekistan Is Not Good News for Turkmenistan,” Qishloq Ovozi, 25 April 2018; Radio Azatlyk, “В Туркменистане дорожают лекарства, ощущается дефицит,” 27 July 2018.

  102. IMF, Opening Up in the Caucasus and Central Asia. Policy Frameworks to Support Regional and Global Integration, July 2018.

  103. Jason Holland, “Turkmenistan opens US$2.25 billion airport with 1,100sq m of duty free and retail space,” The Moodie Davitt Report, 14 October 2016.

  104. Озодлик, “Бердымухамедов вызвал к себе руководство компании, строившей ашхабадский аэропорт из-за дефекта здания,” 13 January 2017.

  105. Альтернативные новости Туркменистана, “Ниже уровня толчка. В Гумдаге полиция занялась туалетами и мусорными свалками,” 21 May 2018.

  106. Attracta Mooney, “Kazakh sovereign wealth fund is latest victim of oil price fall,” Financial Times, 8 January 2016.

  107. Edward Robinson, “Bank’s $4 Billion Fraud Allegations Return to London Courtroom,” Bloomberg, 20 November 2017.

  108. Max Seddon, Lionel Barber and Kathrin Hille, “Elvira Nabiullina shuts down Russia’s banking ‘banditry,’ ” Financial Times, 19 October 2016.

  109. BNE Intellinews, “Taliban pledge protection as construction starts on Afghan part of TAPI pipeline,” 26 February 2018.

  110. Bruce Pannier, “Why Didn’t Tu
rkmen, Uzbek Leaders Mention ‘Line D’ To China?,” Qishloq Ovozi, 27 April 2018.

  111. RadioFreeEurope, “Tajik Muslim Leader Declares Boxing, Other Sports Forbidden,” 1 June 2018.

  112. Eurasianet, “Tajikistan slaps restrictions on imports from Uzbekistan,” 6 July 2018.

  113. Mullorachab Yusyfi, “Тақозо аз додситонӣ: “Қарори вазорати маорифро бекор кунед,” Radio Ozodi, 26 June 2018.

  114. Radio Azatlyk, “Туркменистан: не достигшие тридцатилетия мужчины не будут допущены к зарубежным поездкам,” 16 April 2018.

  115. New Fronts, Brave Voices. Press Freedom in South Asia 2016–2017, IFJ Press Freedom Report for South Asia (2016–2017); Daily Times, “Another journalist targeted,” 23 June 2018; Raju Gopalakrishnan, “Indian journalists say they are intimidated, ostracised if they criticise Modi and the BJP,” Reuters, 26 April 2018.

  116. Reuters, “Kazakh police detain dozens at anti-government rally,” 9 May 2018; Joanna Lillis, “Is Kazakhstan’s political opposition creeping back?” Eurasianet, 24 May 2018.

  117. Artemy Kalinovsky, “Central Asia’s Precarious Path to Development,” Foreign Affairs, 2 August 2018.

  118. Eurasianet, “Internet grinds to a near-halt in Tajikistan,” 6 August 2018.

  119. Catherine Putz, “From Bad to Worse: Press Freedom in Eurasia Continues to Decline,” The Diplomat, 26 April 2018.

  120. For the difficulties of balancing competing views of Central Asia, see, for example, Paul Goble, “A Year in Review: More Problems, More Reforms, More Cooperation for Central Asia in 2017,” Eurasia Daily Monitor 15.4 (2018).

  121. International Monetary Fund, Islamic Republic of Iran, IMF Country Report 18/93 (2018).

  122. Times of Israel, “Iran currency hits record low, crashing through 50,000 rial to the US dollar,” 28 March 2018.

  123. BBC News, “Six charts that explain the Iran protests,” 4 January 2018.

  124. See, for example, Karim Sadjadpour, “The Battle for Iran,” The Atlantic, 31 December 2017; Najmeh Bozorgmehr, “Iran’s disillusioned youth spare no one in display of anger,” Financial Times, 2 January 2018.

  125. President Trump tweet, 1 January 2018.

  126. Brent D. Griffiths, “Giuliani: Trump is ‘committed to’ regime change in Iran,” Politico, 5 May 2018.

  127. “Full text of speech by Rudy Giuliani at Grand Gathering 2018,” Iran Probe, 5 July 2018.

  128. White House, “Remarks by President Trump on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,” 8 May 2018.

  129. International Atomic Energy Agency, “Verification and monitoring in the Islamic Republic of Iran in light of United Nations Security Council resolution 2231 (2015),” 22 February 2018.

  130. Tasnim News, “IRGC Warns US of Consequences of Military Action,” 24 May 2018.

  131. White House, Remarks by LTG H. R. McMaster at the United States Holocaust Memorial Museum Simon-Skjodt Center—“Syria, Is the Worst Yet to Come?,” 15 March 2018.

  132. Jeffrey Goldberg, “Saudi Crown Prince: Iran’s Supreme Leader ‘Makes Hitler Look Good,’ ” The Atlantic, 2 April 2018.

  133. BBC News, “Iran hits back over Saudi’s prince’s ‘Hitler’ comment,” 24 November 2017.

  134. Al Arabiya, “Mohammad bin Salman’s full interview,” 3 May 2017.

  135. Middle East Eye, “Iran warns Saudi Arabia after prince’s ‘battle’ comments,” 8 May 2017.

  136. Haaretz, “After Crown Prince Recognizes Israel’s Right to Exist, Saudi King Reiterates Support for Palestinians,” 4 April 2018.

  137. Raf Sanchez, “Saudi Arabia ‘doesn’t care’ about the Palestinians as long as it can make a deal with Israel against Iran, says former Netanyahu advisor,” Daily Telegraph, 25 November 2017.

  138. Daily Sabah, “Israel welcomes Saudi mufti’s pro-Israel remarks, invites him to visit the country,” 14 November 2017.

  139. Anshel Pfeffer, “Israeli minister confirms ‘secret’ Saudi talks,” The Times (London), 21 November 2017.

  140. “Arab nations slam Israel’s ‘racist, discriminatory’ Jewish nation-state law,” Times of Israel, 21 July 2018; “High Court said to advise El Al to drop suit over Saudi route to India,” Times of Israel, 22 July 2018.

  141. Amir Tibon, “Report: Netanyahu Asked Trump to Stick With Saudi Crown Prince After Khashoggi Murder,” Haaretz, 1 November 2018.

  142. CNN, Transcript: Donald Trump’s New York press conference, 27 September 2018.

  THE ROADS TO BEIJING

  1. Xinhua, Speech by Xi Jinping, “Promote People-to-People Friendship and Create a Better Future,” 7 September 2013.

  2. Richard A. Boucher, “US Policy in Central Asia: Balancing Priorities (Part II),” Statement to the House International Relations Subcommittee on the Middle East and Central Asia, 26 April 2006.

  3. People’s Daily, “US scheming for “Great Central Asia” strategy,” 4 August 2006; for S. Frederick Starr’s paper, “A Partnership for Central Asia,” Foreign Affairs (July/August 2005).

  4. US State Department, “Remarks on India and the United States: A Vision for the 21st Century,” 20 July 2011.

  5. China.org.cn, “Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Some Major Issues Concerning Comprehensively Deepening the Reform,” Article 26, Section VII, 12 November 2013.

  6. State Council Information Office, “Six major economic corridors form the ‘Belt and Road’ framework. China Development Bank invests $890bn,” 2 May 2015.

  7. Export-Import Bank of China, press release, “Bank plays a policy-based financial role to support the construction of ‘One Belt and One Road,’ ” 14 January 2014.

  8. China International Trade Institute, Industrial Cooperation between Countries along the Belt and Road (August 2015).

  9. HSBC, “Reshaping the Future World Economy,” 11 May 2017.

  10. Francois de Soyres, Alen Mulabdic, Siobhan Murray, Nadia Rocha Gaffuri and Micele Ruta, How Much Will the Belt and Road Initiative Reduce Trade Costs? World Bank Policy Working Paper 8614, October 2018.

  11. Xinhua, “Full text of President Xi Jinping’s speech at opening of Belt and Road forum,” 14 May 2017.

  12. Rani Sankar Bosu, “BRI will bring China and ASEAN closer,” China.org.cn, 22 May 2017.

  13. Xinhua, “President Xi says to build Belt and Road into road for peace, prosperity,” 14 May 2017.

  14. YouTube, “What’s wrong with the world? What can we do?,” https://www.youtube.com/​watch?v=RkkGb14zIVY.

  15. Xinhua, “Full text of President Xi Jinping’s speech at opening of Belt and Road forum,” 14 May 2017.

  16. James Kynge, “How the Silk Road plans will be financed,” Financial Times, 9 May 2016.

  17. For China’s experiences in the 1980s and 1990s, see Gewirtz, Unlikely Partners, op. cit.

  18. Jamil Anderlini, “Interview: ‘We say, if you want to get rich, build roads first,’ ” Financial Times, 25 September 2018.

  19. Jonathan E. Hillman, “How Big Is China’s Belt and Road?,” Center for Strategic and International Studies, 3 April 2018.

  20. Frankopan, Silk Roads, passim.

  21. Press TV, “Iran opens new trade link under new Silk Road plan,” 26 June 2018.

  22. Turkmenistan Segodnya, “В Туркменабате тожественно открыт монумент «Шёлковый путь,” 8 April 2018.

  23. Rigina Madzhitova, “Уникальный проект, или как 12 ворот Ташкента превратят город в сердце Великого шелкового пути,” Podrobno.uz, 5 September 2018.

  24. Jonathan Hillman, “A Chinese world order,” Washington Post,
23 July 2018.

  25. For example, Sajjad Hussain, “China’s CPEC investment in Pakistan reaches $62 billion,” Livemint, 12 April 2017; Arif Rafiq, “China’s $62 Billion Bet on Pakistan,” Foreign Affairs, 25 October 2017;

  26. Dr. Shahid Rashid, executive director to the Center of Excellence for CPEC, quoted in The News International, “CPEC contribution to cross $100bn by 2030,” 9 February 2018.

  27. Khaleeq Kiani, “If all goes well, 10 CPEC projects may be completed,” Dawn, 1 January 2018.

  28. Mehtab Haider, “China may be involved in running Karachi–Peshawar railway,” The News, 5 February 2018.

  29. Tribune, “Cement sales touch record high at 4.2 million tons in October,” 4 November 2017.

  30. Eva Grey, “China turns Malaysia’s East Coast Rail Link into reality,” Railway Technology, 1 October 2017.

  31. Xinhua, “Laotians expect Laos-China railway to bring tangible benefits,” 4 February 2018.

  32. For a survey of current major BRI infrastructure projects, see International Financing Review Asia. Asian Development Bank Special Report: Coming up Fast (April 2018).

  33. “China to establish court for OBOR disputes,” Asia Times, 25 January 2018.

  34. Saptarshi Ray, “China to tunnel beneath Himalayas for Nepal railway link,” The Times (London), 23 June 2018.

  35. Anil Giri, “China looks at Nepal as potential gateway to South Asia, expands footprints in market,” Hindustan Times, 19 October 2017.

  36. Turloch Mooney, “New Asia–Europe rail services added amid weak ocean rates,” Journal of Commerce, 31 May 2016.

  37. An additional ten containers were unloaded at Duisberg. Railway Gazette, “First China to UK rail freight service arrives in London,” 18 January 2017.

  38. Dirk Visser, “Snapshot: The World’s Ultra-Large Container Ship Fleet,” The Maritime Executive, 2 June 2018.

 

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