World War Trump

by Hall Gardner

  14. “Donald Trump: More Countries Will Leave the EU Following Brexit—Video,” Guardian, June 24, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2016/jun/24/donald-trump-more-countries-will-leave-eu-following-brexit-video (accessed November 13, 2017).

  15. The Greek financial crisis is not only due to excessive covert expenditure, but also a result of the 2008 US financial crisis. On the relationship to the US mortgage crisis and European banking crisis, see “James K. Galbraith: The Final Death (and Next Life) of Maynard Keynes,” transcript, Shadowproof, August 5, 2011, https://shadowproof.com/2011/08/01/james-k-galbraith-the-final-death-and-next-life-of-maynard-keynes/ (accessed May 30, 2017).

  16. Roberto Savio, “Merkel's Defeat Confirms Dismal Trend for Europe,” Other News, September 29, 2017, http://www.other-news.info/2017/09/merkels-defeat-confirms-dismal-trend-for-europe/ (accessed November 6, 2017).

  17. John Mauldin, “Italy's Banking Crisis Is Nearly upon Us,” Forbes, December 8, 2016, https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnmauldin/2016/12/08/italys-banking-crisis-is-nearly-upon-us/#6c235e6f6c23 (accessed October 26, 2017); Philip Molyneux, “Will Italy's Failing Banks Trigger Financial Collapse across Europe?” Guardian, November 28, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/nov/28/italy-failing-banks-new-japan (accessed October 26, 2017).

  18. Nicole Koenig and Marie Walter-Franke, “France and Germany: Spearheading a European Security and Defence Union?” (policy paper; Berlin: Jacques Delors Institut, July 19, 2017), http://www.institutdelors.eu/media/franceandgermanyspearheadingaeuropeansecurityanddefenceunion-koenigwalter-jdib-july2017.pdf?pdf=ok (accessed October 26, 2017).

  19. Joint Declaration Issued at the British-French Summit (Saint-Malo, France: EU Institute for Security Studies, February 2000), https://www.cvce.eu/en/obj/franco_british_st_malo_declaration_4_december_1998-en-f3cd16fb-fc37-4d52-936f-c8e9bc80f24f.html (accessed October 26, 2017).

  20. Daniel Keohane, “Three's Company? France, Germany, the UK, and European Defence Post-Brexit,” Real Instituto Elcano, January 5, 2017, http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/zonas_in/ari1-2017-keohane-threes-company-france-germany-uk-european-defence-post-brexit(accessed May 30, 2017).

  21. Tom Batchelor, “Scotland ‘Would Not Get Automatic Membership of NATO If It Voted for Independence,’” Independent, March 13, 2017, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/scottish-referendum-nicola-sturgeon-nato-membership-independent-scotland-a7627481.html (accessed May 30, 2017).

  22. Rainer Buergin and Toluse Olorunnipa, “Trump Slams NATO, Floats Russia Nuke Deal in European Interview,” Bloomberg, January 15, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-15/trump-calls-nato-obsolete-and-dismisses-eu-in-german-interview (accessed May 30, 2017).

  23. Kevin Liptak and Michelle Kosinski, “After Combative Meeting, Trump Tries Phone Flattery to Win over Merkel,” CNN, March 28, 2017, http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/28/politics/donald-trump-angela-merkel-call/ (accessed October 26, 2017).

  24. “Donald Trump Slams Angela Merkel's Refugee Policy,” Deutsche Welle, January 15, 2017, http://www.dw.com/en/donald-trump-slams-angela-merkels-refugee-policy/a-37141791 (accessed May 30, 2017).

  25. “New US Russia Sanctions Bill Risks EU Anger,” Deutsche Welle, July 28, 2017, http://www.dw.com/en/new-us-russia-sanctions-bill-risks-eu-anger/a-39867060 (accessed October 26, 2017).

  26. Shannon Tiezzi, “China and Germany's ‘Special Relationship,’” Diplomat, July 08, 2014, https://thediplomat.com/2014/07/china-and-germanys-special-relationship/ (accessed November 7, 2017).

  27. Robin Harding, “Japan Fears Brexit Blow to EU Arms Embargo on China,” Financial Times, https://www.ft.com/content/219af680-41c6-11e6-b22f-79eb4891c97d (accessed October 26, 2017).

  28. Daniel Twining, “Leveraging America's Asian Pivot to Reinforce the Transatlantic Alliance and Vice Versa,” Asan Forum, June 30, 2016, http://www.theasanforum.org/leveraging-americas-asian-pivot-to-reinforce-the-transatlantic-alliance-and-vice-versa/ (accessed May 30, 2017).

  29. For details, see “Migrant Crisis: Migration to Europe Explained in Seven Charts,” BBC, March 4, 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-34131911 (accessed November 7, 2017).

  30. “BP-Rosneft Deal,” Russia Beyond the Headlines, January 15, 2011, http://rbth.com/bp-rosneft (accessed May 30, 2017).

  31. Justin Sink, “Trump, Merkel Discussed NATO, Mideast in First Phone Call,” Bloomberg, January 28, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-01-28/trump-merkel-discussed-nato-middle-east-in-first-phone-call (accessed October 26, 2017).

  32. “New CAP Is Still Struggling to Find New Export Markets,” EurActiv: Main Challenges Facing the CAP, special report, July 25–29, 2016, http://en.euractiv.eu/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/special-report/EurActiv-Multilingual-Special-Report-The-main-challenges-facing-the-CAP-1.pdf (accessed November 7, 2017).

  33. Jake Rudnitsky and Ilya Arkhipov, “Putin's Reliance on American Commerce Has Never Been Greater,” Bloomberg, June 15, 2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-15/putin-s-reliance-on-american-commerce-has-never-been-greater (accessed October 26, 2017).

  34. David Shamah, “Sanctions Propel Israel, Russia to Expand Agriculture Ties” Times of Israel, September 14, 2014, http://www.timesofisrael.com/sanctions-propel-israel-russia-to-expand-agriculture-ties/ (accessed October 26, 2017).

  35. Aleksandra Eriksson, EU Observer, June 23, 2017, https://euobserver.com/foreign/138334 (accessed November 6, 2017). Daniel P. Ahn and Rodney D. Ludema, “Measuring Smartness: Understanding the Economic Impact of Targeted Sanctions,” working paper 2017-01, December 2016, https://www.state.gov/documents/organization/267590.pdf (accessed, November 6, 2017). Sarantis Michalopoulos, “Russia Extends Embargo on EU Food Products,” EurActiv, June 30, 2016, https://www.euractiv.com/section/agriculture-food/news/russia-extends-embargo-on-eu-food-products/ (accessed May 30, 2017). See impact of sanctions on Russia and the EU. Anastasia Nevskaya, “Russia-EU Economic Relations: Assessing Two Years of Sanctions,” Russia Direct, June 16, 2016, http://www.russia-direct.org/analysis/russia-eu-economic-relations-assessing-two-years-sanctions (accessed October 26, 2017).

  36. Raphaël Proust, “Jean-Luc Mélenchon veut une « conférence sur la sécurité » en Europe,” l'Opinion, March 31, 2017, http://www.lopinion.fr/edition/politique/jean-luc-melenchon-veut-conference-securite-en-europe-123375 (accessed October 26, 2017).

  37. Wikipedia, s.v. “German Federal Election, 2017,” last modified November 21, 2017, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_federal_election,_2017 (accessed November 21, 2017).

  38. Trump's adviser and strategist Steve Bannon has been seen as organizing a new international order based on “illiberal democracy.” His allies include Nigel Farage (United Kingdom Independence Party), Matteo Salvini (Italian Northern League), Beppe Grillo (Italian 5 Star Movement), Marine Le Pen (French National Front), and Geert Wilders (Netherlands Freedom Party)—who, at the beginning of the Trump administration, had Washington (and not so much Moscow) as their point of reference. Roberto Savio, “Trump Marks the End of a Cycle,” Inter Press Service, February 21, 2017, http://www.ipsnews.net/2017/02/trump-marks-the-end-of-a-cycle/ (accessed May 30, 2017). Given the shift back toward neoconservativism and neo-liberalism in the Trump administration, whether this alliance can hold together is another question.

  39. Dan Stewart, “Donald Trump's Meeting with Nigel Farage Leaves Britain's Leaders Red-Faced,” Time, Nov 14, 2016, http://time.com/4569416/donald-trump-nigel-farage-meeting-theresa-may/ (accessed October 27, 2017).

  40. Ben Jacobs, “Donald Trump: Marine Le Pen Is ‘Strongest Candidate’ in French Election,” Guardian, April 21, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/apr/21/donald-trump-marine-le-pen-french-presidential-election (accessed October 27, 2017).

  41. Fredrik Wesslau, “Putin's Friends in Europe,” European Council on Foreign Relations, October 19, 2016, http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_putins_friends_in_eu
rope7153 (accessed May 30, 2017).

  42. Gašper Završnik, “Beata Szydło: Poland May Drop Rome Declaration,” Politico, March 23, 2017, http://www.politico.eu/article/beata-szydlo-poland-may-drop-rome-declaration/ (accessed October 27, 2017).

  43. Péter Krekó and Lóránt Györi, “Don't Ignore the Left! Connections between Europe's Radical Left and Russia,” OpenDemocracy, June 13, 2016, https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/peter-kreko-lorant-gyori/don-t-ignore-left-connections-between-europe-s-radical-left-and-ru (accessed May 30, 2017).

  44. Stephanie Kirchgaessner, “Italy's Five Star Movement Part of Growing Club of Putin Sympathisers in West,” Guardian, January 5, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jan/05/five-star-movement-beppe-grillo-putin-supporters-west (accessed May 30, 2017).

  45. Two major events have worked to further destabilize the region, leading to a mass exodus: French and UK-led military intervention in Libya (backed by NATO) in March 2011 and then the Syrian civil war which began in 2011, but escalated even further with direct Russian military involvement in September 2015.

  46. Roberto Savio, “Merkel's Defeat Confirms Dismal Trend for Europe,” Other News, September 29, 2017, http://www.other-news.info/2017/09/merkels-defeat-confirms-dismal-trend-for-europe/ (accessed November 6, 2017).

  47. IPSOS, Résultats du 2nd tour, 2017, https://www.ipsos.com/fr-fr/presidentielle-2nd-tour-les-estimations-ipsos-sopra-steria-dune-grande-precision (accessed November 6, 2017).

  48. Saim Saeed, “US Intelligence Chief: Russia Interfering in French, German Elections,” Politico, March 30, 2017, http://www.politico.eu/article/us-intelligence-chief-russia-interfering-in-french-german-elections/ (accessed October 27, 2017).

  49. Helene Fouquet, Gregory Viscusi, and Henry Meyer, “Le Pen Struggling to Fund French Race as Russian Bank Fails,” Bloomberg, December 22, 2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-12-22/le-pen-struggling-to-fund-french-race-after-russian-backer-fails (accessed November 13, 2017).

  50. Gideon Resnick, “Steve Bannon Knew about Marine Le Pen's Trump Tower Party, Organizer Claims,” Daily Beast, January 30, 2017, http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2017/01/12/steve-bannon-knew-about-marine-le-pen-s-trump-tower-party-organizer-claims.html (accessed May 30, 2017).

  51. Eric Auchard and Bate Felix, “French Candidate Macron Claims Massive Hack as Emails Leaked,” Reuters, May 6, 2017, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-election-macron-leaks-idUSKBN1812AZ (accessed October 27, 2017).

  52. Andrew Higgins, “Maybe Private Russian Hackers Meddled in Election, Putin Says,” New York Times, June 1, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/06/01/world/europe/vladimir-putin-donald-trump-hacking.html (accessed November 7, 2017).

  53. Auchard and Felix, “French Candidate Macron.”

  54. “Dutch Referendum a Difficult Result for EU and Ukraine,” BBC News, April 7, 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-35984821 (accessed May 30, 2017).

  55. Jennifer Rankin, “EU Lifts Most Sanctions against Belarus Despite Human Rights Concerns,” Guardian, February 15, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/15/eu-lifts-most-sanctions-against-belarus-despite-human-rights-concerns (accessed May 30, 2017).

  56. See for example, Andrew Wilson, “Europe, Keep an Eye on Minsk: If the Belarus President Is to Survive, He Will Have to Walk a Narrow Path between Pressure from Demonstrators and the Kremlin,” Politico, March 17, 2017, http://www.politico.eu/article/europe-keep-an-eye-on-minsk-belarus-alexander-lukashenko-vladimir-putin-russia/ (accessed May 30, 2017).

  57. Colin Brose, “Serbia Maneuvers between the EU and EEU,” Jamestown Foundation, November 11, 2016, https://jamestown.org/serbia-maneuvers-eu-eeu/ (accessed May 30, 2017).

  58. Rikard Jozwiak, “Brussels Notebook: Elections Aren't Only Things Keeping NATO, EU Folks up at Night,” RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, January 4, 2017, http://www.rferl.org/a/brussels-notebook-elections-not-only-things-keeping-nato-eu-up-at-night/28214010.html?ltflags=mailer (accessed October 27, 2017).

  59. Nick Gass, “Trump: Taking Back Crimea Would Trigger World War III,” Politico, August 1, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-crimea-ukraine-war-226522 (accessed May 30, 2017).

  60. Christina Boyle, “European Council President Includes United States as Threat to Europe,” LA Times, January 31, 2017, http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-europe-trump-20170131-story.html (accessed October 27, 2017); M. Emmanuel Macron, “United Nations General Assembly—Speech by M. Emmanuel Macron, President of the Republic,” (speech; New York: United Nations, September 19, 2017), http://www.diplomatie.gouv.fr/en/french-foreign-policy/united-nations/united-nations-general-assembly-sessions/unga-s-72nd-session/article/united-nations-general-assembly-speech-by-m-emmanuel-macron-president-of-the (accessed October 27, 2017).

  CHAPTER 5: THE RISK OF WAR OVER CRIMEA, THE BLACK SEA, AND EASTERN EUROPE

  1. Nick Gass, “Trump: Taking Back Crimea Would Trigger World War III,” Politico, August 1, 2016, http://www.politico.com/story/2016/08/donald-trump-crimea-ukraine-war-226522 (accessed October 27, 2017).

  2. Bryan Logan, “Nikki Haley Just Delivered the Trump Administration's Most Hawkish Words Yet toward Russia,” Business Insider, February 3, 2017, http://uk.businessinsider.com/trump-nikki-haley-russia-ukraine-2017-2?r=US&IR=T (accessed May 29, 2017). Christopher Miller, “Anxious Ukraine Risks Escalation in ‘Creeping Offensive,’” RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, January 30, 2017, http://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-russia-creeping-offensive-escalation-fighting/28268104.html (accessed October 27, 2017). See chapter 3.

  3. Nikita Vladimirov, “Trump Vows to Restore ‘Peace’ Along Russia, Ukraine Border,” Hill, February 4, 2017, http://thehill.com/policy/international/317943-trump-vows-to-restore-peace-along-russia-ukraine-border (accessed May 29, 2017).

  4. It is not absolutely clear whether Haley's speech implied a complete end to sectoral sanctions. Russia essentially has had three sets of sanctions put on it by the United States since Crimea became part of Russia. US sectoral sanctions on Russia are due to expire in December 2017. European sanctions are due to expire in January 2018. It is more likely that the Europeans will eventually end sanctions earlier than the Americans, given the impact of sanctions on European agriculture. Kenneth Rapoza, “What UN Ambassador Haley's Comment on Russia Really Means,” Forbes, February 3, 2017, http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/02/03/what-u-n-ambassador-haleys-comment-on-russia-really-means/#63320ee74405 (accessed May 29, 2017).

  5. Andrew E. Kramer and Clifford Krauss, “Rex Tillerson's Company, Exxon, Has Billions at Stake over Sanctions on Russia,” New York Times, December 12, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/12/world/europe/rex-tillersons-company-exxon-has-billions-at-stake-over-russia-sanctions.html?_r=1 (accessed October 27, 2017). For projected benefits of the Trump presidency for Exxon, see Jenny Rowland et al., “How Exxon Won the 2016 Election,” Center for American Progress, January 10, 2017, https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/green/news/2017/01/10/296277/how-exxon-won-the-2016-election/ (accessed October 27, 2017).

  6. If, for example, the ExxonMobil and Rosneft joint venture is forced to break up, then Exxon and Rosneft could swap assets in the United States and Canada and in Russia. But the gas deposits in the Arctic Circle are probably worth much more than the US/Canadian deposits. And the Bazhenov shale could prove ten times bigger than the Bakken shale of North Dakota. See Christopher Helman, “Why Forcing ExxonMobil out of Russia Isn't Going to Help Anything,” Forbes, September 14, 2014, https://www.forbes.com/sites/christopherhelman/2014/09/14/why-forcing-exxonmobil-out-of-russia-isnt-going-to-help-anything/#2f7240121a20 (accessed October 27, 2017).

  7. Nick Cunningham, “Chevron Pulls out of $10 Billion Gas Deal with Ukraine,” OilPrice.com, December 15, 2014, http://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Chevron-Pulls-Out-Of-10-Billion-Gas-Deal-With-Ukraine.html (accessed May 29, 2017).

  8. Christopher Hellie, “Should Russia's Internal Issues Scare Long-Term Investors?” Global Risks Insights, January 31, 2017, http://global
riskinsights.com/2017/01/russia-internal-issues/ (accessed October 27, 2017); Kenneth Rapoza, “Russia Investors Get No Love From Trump, But…” Forbes, April 24, 2017, https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2017/04/24/russia-investors-get-no-love-from-trump-but/#787ebf505470 (accessed October 27, 2017); Jason Corcoran, “Russia Set to Remain out in the Cold,” bne IntelliNews Daily, May 9, 2017, http://online.flipbuilder.com/myab/ihpb/mobile/index.html?inf_contact_key=fe813ce84d777d1d7ae6e339ad06b82609b749d2ca1cd0f1867aca4c553ba280 (accessed October 27, 2017).

  9. Reuters, “The Art of the Deal: Why Putin Needs Trump More Than Trump Needs Putin,” Business Insider, February 1, 2017, http://uk.businessinsider.com/r-the-art-of-the-deal-why-putin-needs-one-more-than-trump-2017-2?r=US&IR=T (accessed May 30, 2017).

  10. There is a statistical dispute as to whether oil and gas account for around 34 percent or 50 percent of government revenues. Jon Hellevig, “Oil and Gas Revenue Accounts for 21% of Russia's Budget Not 50%,” Russia Insider, March 28, 2016, http://russia-insider.com/en/business/oil-and-gas-revenue-accounts-just-21-russias-budget-not-over-50-routinely-misreported-west (accessed May 29, 2017); Alexander Metelitsa, “Oil and Natural Gas Sales Accounted for 68% of Russia's Total Export Revenues in 2013,” US Energy Information Administration (EIA), July 23, 2014, http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=17231 (accessed May 29, 2017).

  11. Donald Trump, “Statement by President Donald J. Trump on the Signing of H.R. 3364,” press release, White House, Office of the Press Secretary, August 2, 2017, https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2017/08/02/statement-president-donald-j-trump-signing-hr-3364 (accessed October 27, 2017).

  12. Ibid.

  13. James Osborne, “EIA: US Shale Oil Production to Fall Sharply through 2017,” Fuel Fix, August 22, 2016, http://fuelfix.com/blog/2016/08/22/eia-u-s-shale-oil-production-to-fall-sharply-through-2017/ (accessed May 29, 2017); Reuters, “US Shale Firms Go Back to Work after Donald Trump's Victory,” Fortune, November 14, 2016, http://fortune.com/2016/11/14/donald-trump-victory-us-shale-oil/ (accessed October 27, 2017).