World War Trump

by Hall Gardner

  14. ICMN Staff, “Rosebud Sioux Tribe Calls House Keystone XL Passage an ‘Act of War,’ Vows Legal Action,” Indian Country Media Network, November 17, 2014, https://indiancountrymedianetwork.com/news/politics/rosebud-sioux-tribe-calls-house-keystone-xl-passage-an-act-of-war-vows-legal-action/ (accessed May 29, 2017).

  15. Glenn Ellis and Katerina Barushka, “A Very Montenegrin Coup,” Al Jazeera, March 2, 2017, http://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/peopleandpower/2017/03/montenegrin-coup-170302060130440.html (accessed October 27, 2017).

  16. It is possible that Finland and the Yeltsin administration may have talked about Russia selling Karelia back to Finland, but the idea was dumped. Putin has stated that territorial exchanges are not the best way to bring peace! Martti Valkonen, “President Ahtisaari Unlocked a Door towards Debate about Lost Karjala,” Prokarelia, November 28, 2002, http://prokarelia.net/en/?x=artikkeli&article_id=314&author=1 (accessed October 27, 2017).

  17. Rapoza, “What UN Ambassador Haley's Comment”; “Ukraine/Russia Related Sanctions Program,” US Department of the Treasury, last updated September 29, 2017, https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/sanctions/Programs/Pages/ukraine.aspx (accessed October 26, 2017).

  18. Kiev could have tried to sustain its nuclear weaponry; Kiev had the missiles, but needed to build the warheads as the control systems were in Moscow (at a cost of $65 billion). Yet the Clinton Administration threatened Ukraine with isolation and sanctions if Kiev sustained the nuclear weapons while Russia threatened preemptive strikes. See Hall Gardner, Surviving the Millennium: American Global Strategy, the Collapse of the Soviet Empire, and the Question of Peace (Westport, CT: Praeger, 1994).

  19. NATO, “Founding Act on Mutual Relations, Cooperation and Security between NATO and the Russian Federation Signed in Paris, France,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, May 27, 1997, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_25468.htm (accessed May 29, 2017).

  20. Ibid.

  21. Ibid.

  22. Ibid.

  23. Dave Majumdar, “Revealed: Russian Invasion Could Overrun NATO in 60 Hours,” National Interest, February 4, 2016, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/revealed-russian-invasion-could-overrun-nato-60-hours-15112 (accessed May 29, 2017). It was estimated that a proposed deployment of seven brigades to deter potential Russian aggression in the Baltic region could cost about $2.7 billion. But such a force could only slow, not defeat, Moscow—if the latter were truly determined to overrun these countries. Lisabeth Gronlund, “How Much Does It Cost to Create a Single Nuclear Weapon?” Union of Concerned Scientists, November 2013, http://www.ucsusa.org/publications/ask/2013/nuclear-weapon-cost.html#.V9VZ4z595wc (accessed May 29, 2017); On Obama's military buildup: Dov S. Zakheim, “The Great Reversal: Obama's Military Buildup,” National Interest, February 9, 2016, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-great-reversal-obamas-military-buildup-15151 (accessed May 29, 2017).

  24. Jeffrey Goldberg, “The Obama Doctrine,” Atlantic, March 17, 2016, http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/04/the-obama-doctrine/471525/#3 (accessed May 29, 2017).

  25. NATO, “Ukraine Commission,” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, May 21, 2014, http://www.nato.int/cps/iw/natohq/topics_50319.htm (accessed May 29, 2017).

  26. Emily Tamkin, Dan De Luce, Robbie Gramer, “Ukraine Expects Trump to Approve Arms Deliveries,” Foreign Policy, October 26, 2017, http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/10/26/ukraine-expects-trump-to-approve-arms-deliveries/ (accessed November 7, 2017).

  27. See Hall Gardner, Crimea, Global Rivalry and the Vengeance of History (Basingstoke, UK: Palgrave MacMillan, 2015).

  28. “Minsk Agreement: Full Text in English,” UNIAN, February 12, 2015, http://www.unian.info/politics/1043394-minsk-agreement-full-text-in-english.html (accessed May 30, 2017).

  29. Tim Judah, “Will Ukraine Ever Change?” New York Review of Books, May 25, 2017, http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2017/05/25/will-ukraine-ever-change/ (accessed November 7, 2017). See also Gordon M. Hahn, “Getting Ukraine Wrong,” Gordon Hahn, September 8, 2017, https://gordonhahn.com/2017/09/08/getting-ukraine-wrong/ (accessed October 27, 2017).

  30. Mikhail Minakov and Maryna Stavniichuk, “Ukraine's Constitution: Reform or Crisis?” Open Democracy, February 16, 2016, https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/mikhail-minakov-maryna-stavniichuk/ukrainian-constitution-reform-or-crisis (accessed November 7, 2017)

  31. “Poroshenko's proposal is not approved by the separatists, nor by the Kremlin. It does not really give any ‘special status’ to separatist areas, and any specific details on autonomous rule in Donbass may later be revised by a simple majority vote in Ukrainian parliament. Moreover, the so-called ‘decentralisation’ is accompanied by a strengthening of the presidential control over local self-government via centrally assigned ‘prefects’ with broad powers.” Volodymyr Ishchenko, “Ukraine's Government Bears More Responsibility for Ongoing Conflict Than the Far-Right,” Guardian, September 4, 2015, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/sep/04/ukraine-government-svoboda-clashes-conflict (accessed October 27, 2017).

  32. “Corruption Perceptions Index 2016,” Transparency International, January 25, 2017, http://www.transparency.org/news/feature/corruption_perceptions_index_2016 (accessed October 27, 2017).

  33. The self-proclaimed Union was established in May 2014. Yet the Novorossiya pan-nationalist movement was not officially recognized internationally, even by Russia, and was labeled as a “terrorist organization” by Kiev. The movement came to a sudden end in May 2015 after meetings between US and European officials with Moscow. Andrei Kolesnikov, “Why the Kremlin Is Shutting Down the Novorossiya Project,” Carnegie.ru/commentary, May 29, 2015, http://carnegieendowment.org/2015/05/29/why-kremlin-is-shutting-down-novorossiya-project/i96u (accessed November 14, 2017).

  34. Pavel Podvig, “What the Crimea Crisis Will Do to US-Russia Relations,” Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, March 27, 2014, http://thebulletin.org/what-crimea-crisis-will-do-us-russia-relations7009 (accessed May 30, 2017).

  35. NATO, “Wales Summit Declaration,” press release, issued by the heads of state and government participating in the meeting of the North Atlantic Council in Wales, September 5, 2014, http://www.nato.int/cps/ic/natohq/official_texts_112964.htm (accessed October 27, 2017).

  36. Joshua Yaffa, “The Unaccountable Death of Boris Nemtsov,” New Yorker, February 26, 2016, http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-unaccountable-death-of-boris-nemtsov (accessed May 30, 2017).

  37. Miller, “Anxious Ukraine Risks Escalation.”

  38. Roman Olearchyk, “Ukraine Imposes Cargo Blockade on Breakaway East,” Financial Times, March 15, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/276f3fd8-098c-11e7-ac5a-903b21361b43 (accessed October 27, 2017); Nicolai Petro, “The Bizarre Reason Ukraine Could Be Facing a Legitimacy Crisis,” National Interest, March 15, 2017, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/the-bizarre-reason-ukraine-could-be-facing-legitimacy-crisis-19787 (accessed October 27, 2017); Miller, “Anxious Ukraine Risks Escalation.”

  39. Andrew Roth, “Russia Accuses Ukraine of Igniting Border Clash in Crimea,” Washington Post, August 10, 2016, https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/russia-accuses-ukraine-of-igniting-border-clashes-in-crimea/2016/08/10/f8e1641a-5f00-11e6-84c1-6d27287896b5_story.html?tid=a_inl (accessed May 30, 2017); Nicolai N. Petro and David C. Speedie, “Update from Ukraine,” Carnegie Council for Ethics in International Affairs, August 18, 2016, http://www.carnegiecouncil.org/studio/multimedia/20160818b/index.html (accessed May 30, 2017).

  40. Nina Sorokopud, Ukraine UNHCR Operational Update (Geneva, Switzerland: UN Refugee Agency, January 2017), http://unhcr.org.ua/attachments/updates/2017%2001%20Update%20FINAL%20EN.pdf (accessed October 27, 2017).

  41. Halya Coynash, “Russia's Crimea Bridge Could Collapse Anytime,” The Atlantic Council (blog), January 10, 2017, http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/russia-s-crimea-bridge-could-collapse-anytime (accessed October 27, 2017).

  42. Lily Hyde, “Crimea's Water Troubles,” Euromaidan Press, February 8, 2
017, http://euromaidanpress.com/2017/02/10/crimeas-water-troubles/#arvlbdata (accessed October 27, 2017); “Dam Leaves Crimea Population in Chronic Water Shortage,” Al Jazeera, January 4, 2017, http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/features/2016/12/dam-leaves-crimea-population-chronic-water-shortage-161229092648659.html (accessed October 27, 2017).

  43. Writer, Staff. “F-35s to Participate in NATO Exercises Near Russian Border,” Popular Military, April 26, 2017, http://popularmilitary.com/f-35s-participate-nato-exercises-near-russian-border/ (accessed May 29, 2017).

  CHAPTER 6: THE GLOBAL IMPACT OF THE CHINA-RUSSIA EURASIAN ALLIANCE

  1. Laura Zhou, “China and Russia Criticise THAAD Missile Defence System as Destabilising Region,” South China Morning Post, July 8, 2016, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1987103/china-and-russia-criticise-thaad-missile-defence-system (accessed May 30, 2017).

  2. Bob Savic, “Behind China and Russia's ‘Special Relationship’” Diplomat, December 7, 2016, http://thediplomat.com/2016/12/behind-china-and-russias-special-relationship/ (accessed May 30, 2017). The revised, official translated name of the initiative is “The Belt and Road Initiative”—with “BRI” as its acronym instead of the “OBOR.”

  3. China's per capita disposable personal income was $3,469 in 2016. Xinhua, “China's personal Income Rises 6.3% in 2016,” China Daily, January 1, 2017, http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-01/20/content_28010029.htm (accessed November 7, 2017).

  4. Franz-Stefan Gady, “China and Russia Conclude Naval Drill in Mediterranean,” Diplomat, May 22, 2015, http://thediplomat.com/2015/05/china-and-russia-conclude-naval-drill-in-mediterranean/ (accessed May 30, 2017).

  5. Joshua Kucera, “Armenia Nixes Pakistan's Ties with CSTO,” EurasiaNet.org, November 29, 2016, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/81476 (accessed May 30, 2017). Pakistan not only supports Azerbaijan in its conflict with Armenia over Nagorno Karabakh, but goes so far as refusing to recognize Armenia's existence until it gives Karabakh back to Azerbaijan.

  6. Vladimir Radyuhin, “The Dragon Gets a Bear Hug,” The Hindu, March 7, 2013, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/the-dragon-gets-a-bear-hug/article4485335.ece (accessed May 30, 2017).

  7. Charles Clover, “Russia Resumes Advanced Weapons Sales to China,” Financial Times, November 16, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/90b1ada2-a18e-11e6-86d5-4e36b35c3550 (accessed November 11, 2017).

  8. According to Konstantin Makienko, “the Chinese mainly need the Su-35 to obtain access to the aircraft's new 117S engine, and Russia's latest and extremely powerful aircraft-based IRBIS radar system.” Beyond that, Russia has a very limited catalogue of military hardware that it can sell to Beijing at this point. Russia has already sold most everything else. Matthew Bodner, “In Arms Trade, China Is Taking Advantage of Russia's Desperation,” Moscow Times, November 1, 2016, https://themoscowtimes.com/articles/in-arms-trade-china-is-taking-advantage-of-russian-desperation-55965 (accessed May 30, 2017).

  9. Charles Clover, “Russia Resumes Advanced Weapons Sales to China,” Financial Times, November 3, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/90b1ada2-a18e-11e6-86d5-4e36b35c3550 (accessed May 30, 2017). In November 2016, China unveiled its own advanced stealth fighter, deployments to come later.

  10. China's main focus is indigenizing foreign technologies and systems in order to create a self-sufficient defense industry that can both produce weaponry platforms for the PLA and compete successfully in the global arms market. Stephen Blank, “Moscow Talks Business, Beijing Answers with Geo-strategy,” China Brief 13, no. 22 (Washington, DC: Jamestown Foundation, November 07, 2013), http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews[tt_news]=41596&no_cache=1#.U3t4EyhauZQ (accessed May 30, 2017).

  11. Bodner, “In Arms Trade, China Is Taking Advantage.”

  12. Stephen Blank and Younkyoo Kim, “Russian Arms Sales and Its Future as an Asian Power,” Asian Politics & Policy 6, no. 2 (2013): 267–84.

  13. Jakobson et al., “China's Energy and Security Relations with Russia: Hopes, Frustrations and Uncertainties,” (policy paper; Solna: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 2011), pp. 27 and 35.

  14. Neal Buckley, “Sino-Russian Gas Deal: Smoke without Fire,” Financial Times, May 11, 2016, https://www.ft.com/content/eea4f2ec-16c0-11e6-b197-a4af20d5575e (accessed October 27, 2017); Henry Foy and Neil Hume, “CEFC China Energy Buys $9bn Stake in Rosneft,” Financial Times, September 8, 2017, https://www.ft.com/content/25b18d2e-94a4-11e7-a9e6-11d2f0ebb7f0?mhq5j=e6 (accessed October 27, 2017). The deal reduces the shares of the Swiss Glencore mining and the Qatar Investment Authority.

  15. Blank and Kim, “Russian Arms Sales.”

  16. “China, Russia Sign Joint Statement on Strengthening Global Strategic Stability,” Xinhuanet, June 25, 2016, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2016-06/26/c_135466187.htm (accessed May 30, 2017). Savic, “Behind China and Russia's ‘Special Relationship.’”

  17. Robert D. Kaplan is correct to call the ongoing Sino-Soviet disputes in Eurasia a “quiet rivalry,” but this rivalry is going beyond a marriage of convenience, as he argues, that might break up in the near future and toward a proto-alliance due to the US unwillingness to forge an entente with Moscow over Ukraine while concurrently seeking to channel China's power potential through a US-China rapprochement, as argued in this book. For Kaplan's views, see “The Quiet Rivalry Between China and Russia,” New York Times, November 3, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/03/opinion/china-russia-rivalry.html (accessed November 8, 2011).

  18. Le Hong Hiep, UNSW ADFA, and VNU, “Defence Cooperation Underpins Vietnam–Russia Push for Renewed Economic Cooperation,” East Asia Forum, November 13, 2013, http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2013/11/13/defence-cooperation-underpins-vietnam-russia-push-for-renewed-economic-cooperation/ (accessed May 30, 2017). “China, Russia Sign Joint Statement.”

  19. Philip S. Golub, East Asia's Reemergence (Cambridge, UK: Polity Press, 2016).

  20. “SFWI, “Fund Rankings,” https://www.swfinstitute.org/fund-rankings/ (accessed November 25, 2017). US and Japanese pension funds rank first and second in terms of total amount of assets.

  21. On a number of energy partnerships, see Savic, “Behind China and Russia's ‘Special Relationship.’” The economic relationship between China and Russia has been driven by a variety of bilateral intergovernmental commissions, including 26 sub-commissions.

  22. Rem Korteweg, “Unfreezing TTIP: Why a Transatlantic Trade Pact Still Makes Strategic Sense,” Center for European Reform, May 2017, http://www.cer.eu/sites/default/files/pb_ttip_rk_10.5.17.pdf (accessed November 14, 2017).

  23. “Goldman Sachs, China's CIC to Launch up to $5 Billion Fund: Sources,” Reuters, November 6, 2017, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-goldman-sachs-cic/goldman-sachs-chinas-cic-to-launch-up-to-5-billion-fund-sources-idUSKBN1D61H7 (accessed November 8, 2017).

  24. Prior to Trump's decision to dump the TPP, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnball had stated that the “effectiveness of the TPP will be considerably enhanced by the inclusion of China whose constructive participation in regional elements is a central element in its peaceful rise.” Malcolm Turnball, “Assessing the Future of the Asia-Pacific–US/Australia Dialogue,” MalcolmTurnball.com, January 31, 2015, http://www.malcolmturnbull.com.au/media/future-of-the-asia-pacific (accessed October 27, 2017).

  25. Xi Jinping, “President Xi's Speech to Davos in Full,” World Economic Forum, January 17, 2017, https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/full-text-of-xi-jinping-keynote-at-the-world-economic-forum (accessed May 30, 2017).

  26. Barack Obama, “Statement by the President on the Signing of the Trans-Pacific Partnership,” press release, White House, Office of the Press Secretary, February 3, 2016, National Archives and Records Administration, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2016/02/03/statement-president-signing-trans-pacific-partnership (accessed May 30, 2017).

  27. Emanuele Scimia, “Taiwan in the TPP: How to Break the Cross-Strait Status Quo,” Asian Times, July 3, 2017, http://www.atimes.com/taiwan-tp
p-break-cross-strait-status-quo/?utm_source=The+Daily+Brief&utm_campaign=68d50bf894-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2017_07_03&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_1f8bca137f-68d50bf894-31523549 (accessed October 27, 2017).

  28. According to the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), Chile is the first most inequitable society; Mexico is second; and the United States is third, as compared to other European, North American, and South American states.

  29. Steve Benen, “China Is Eager to Capitalize on Trump's Early Missteps,” MSNBC, February 7, 2017, (accessed May 22, 2017).

  30. Paul Coyer, “Undermining America While Washington Sleeps: China in Latin America,” Forbes, February 5, 2016, http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulcoyer/2016/01/31/undermining-america-while-washington-sleeps-china-in-latin-america/#505fca7d6694 (accessed May 30, 2017).

  31. “Landbridge Group Connects Three Ports with Acquisition of Margarita Island Port,” ChinaGoAbroad, May 25, 2016, http://www.chinagoabroad.com/en/recent_transaction/20530 (accessed May 30, 2017); Andreea Brînză, “How a Greek Port Became a Chinese ‘Dragon Head,’” Diplomat, April 25, 2016, http://thediplomat.com/2016/04/how-a-greek-port-became-a-chinese-dragon- (accessed May 30, 2017). Peter Jennings, “Darwin: Storm in a Port,” Strategist, November 6, 2015, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/darwin-storm-in-a-port/ (accessed May 30, 2017); Geoff Wade, “Landbridge, Darwin, and the PRC,” Strategist, November 9, 2015, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/landbridge-darwin-and-the-prc/ (accessed May 30, 2017).

  32. Suzanne Daley, “Lost in Nicaragua, a Chinese Tycoon's Canal Project,” New York Times, April 3, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/04/world/americas/nicaragua-canal-chinese-tycoon.html?_r=0 (accessed May 30, 2017). François Lafargue, “China's Presence in Latin America. Strategies, Aims and Limits,” China Perspectives 68, June 1, 2007, https://chinaperspectives.revues.org/3053 (accessed May 30, 2017); David Z. Morris, “Why China and Nicaragua's Canal Project Is Floundering?” Fortune, February 29, 2016, http://fortune.com/2016/02/29/china-nicaragua-canal/ (accessed May 30, 2017); Jonathan Watts, “Nicaragua Canal: In a Sleepy Pacific Port, Something Stirs,” Guardian, November 24, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/nov/24/nicaragua-canal-interoceanic-preparations (accessed May 30, 2017).