World War Trump

by Hall Gardner

  33. Peter Jennings, “Darwin: Storm in a Port,” Strategist, November 6, 2015, https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/darwin-storm-in-a-port/ (accessed May 30, 2017); Wade, “Landbridge, Darwin, and the PRC.”

  34. Russia and the Caribbean (London: Caribbean Council, March 24, 2015), http://www.caribbean-council.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Russia-and-the-Caribbean.pdf (accessed October 27, 2017).

  35. Karen de Young, “White House Implements New Cuba Policy Restricting Travel and Trade,” Washington Post, November 8, 2017.

  36. Negative economic effects of Chinese investment in Latin America and elsewhere include the hollowing out of manufacturing in the region and the enlarging of regional dependence on raw material exports, which increases the regional economies’ sensitivity to fluctuations in commodity prices. The countries can also become dependent on fluctuations of Chinese demand. Paul Coyer, “Undermining America While Washington Sleeps: China in Latin America,” Forbes, January 31, 2016, http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulcoyer/2016/01/31/undermining-america-while-washington-sleeps-china-in-latin-america/#505fca7d6694 (accessed October 27, 2017). Further, because Chinese firms often bring their own labor, Chinese investments do not always increase job opportunities.

  37. Andrew Rosati and Jose Orozco, “Trump Calls Venezuela ‘Horrible’ as US Expands Sanctions,” Bloomberg, May 18, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-05-18/trump-calls-venezuela-horrible-as-treasury-expands-sanctions (accessed October 27, 2017).

  38. Robert Helbig and Guillaume Lasconjarias, “Winning Peace and Exporting Stability: Colombia as NATO's Next Global Partner?” North Atlantic Treaty Organization Research Division Research Paper 138, May 23, 2017, http://www.ndc.nato.int/news/news.php?icode=1056 (accessed October 27, 2017).

  39. “More Than 100 Terrorists in TT,” Newsday, February 24, 2016, http://archives.newsday.co.tt/news/print,0,224465.html (accessed October 27, 2017). The Financial Intelligence Unit of Trinidad and Tobago observed that suspected terrorist financial transactions had tripled in 2015.

  40. Steve Holland and Anthony Boadle, “Trump Says Democracy Must Be Restored in Venezuela Soon,” Reuters, September 19, 2017, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-latin-america/trump-says-democracy-must-be-restored-in-venezuela-soon-idUSKCN1BT2R7 (accessed November 14, 2017).

  41. Jorge G. Castaneda, “Trump and Castro Can Save Venezuela,” New York Times, September 21, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/21/opinion/trump-castro-venezuela.html (accessed November 7, 2017).

  42. AFP, “India, Pakistan Edge Closer to Joining SCO Security Bloc,” Express Tribune, June 24, 2016, http://tribune.com.pk/story/1129533/india-pakistan-edge-closer-joining-sco-security-bloc/ (accessed May 30, 2017).

  43. Joint Communiqué of the 14th Meeting of the Foreign Ministers of the Russian Federation, the Republic of India and the People's Republic of China (New Delhi: Ministry of External Affairs, Government of India, April 18, 2016), http://mea.gov.in/bilateral-documents.htm?dtl/26628/Joint_Communiqu_of_the_14th_Meeting_of_the_Foreign_Ministers_of_the_Russian_Federation_the_Republic_of_India_and_the_Peoples_Republic_of_China (accessed October 29, 2017).

  44. Alexander Korablinov, “China Snubs Russian Request for Trilateral Defense Meeting with India,” Russia Beyond, April 12, 2017, https://www.rbth.com/international/2017/04/12/china-snubs-russian-request-for-trilateral-defense-meeting-with-india_740367 (accessed October 29, 2017).

  45. Mohan Malik, “Balancing Act: The China-India-US Triangle,” World Affairs, Spring 2016, http://www.worldaffairsjournal.org/article/balancing-act-china-india-us-triangle (accessed October 29, 2017).

  46. Wade Shapard, “China's Jewel in the Heart of the Indian Ocean: The Colombo Port City Project Was Conceived by Sri Lanka, But Is Now an Almost 100 Percent Chinese Undertaking,” Diplomat, May 9, 2016, http://thediplomat.com/2016/05/chinas-jewel-in-the-heart-of-the-indian-ocean/ (accessed October 29, 2017).

  47. Brigadier Vinod Anand, “India's Defence Cooperation with South East Asian Countries,” SP's Land Forces, no. 3 (2013), http://www.spslandforces.com/story.asp?id=258 (accessed May 30, 2017).

  48. Nirmala Ganapathy, “India, Thailand to Boost Defence Ties,” Indian Express, June 18, 2016, http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/india-thailand-to-boost-defence-ties-2859804/ (accessed May 30, 2017).

  49. “India's Partnership with Southeast Asia Nears Its Limits,” Stratfor Worldview, September 20, 2016, https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/indias-partnership-southeast-asia-nears-its-limits (accessed May 30, 2017).

  50. Russia and India have held annual naval and land exercises since 2003. In 2016 exercises were hosted by Russia which interestingly chose to host them in Ussuriysk, near Vladivostok and very close to the Chinese border.

  51. Loro Hort, “From Russia without Love: Russia Resumes Weapons Sales to China,” PacNet, no. 89 (Pacific Forum CSIS Honolulu, Hawaii, December 12, 2013), https://csis-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/publication/Pac1389_0.pdf (accessed October 29, 2017).

  52. Malik, “Balancing Act.”

  53. Blank and Kim, “Russian Arms Sales.”

  54. Different experts dispute whether the Indian Rafales to be acquired from France can match the Russian SU-35s. If the SU-35 is better, India might look back to Russia, unless the latter starts backing Pakistan, which is acquiring the JF-17 fighter jet from China. Franz-Stefan Gady, “Pakistan to Order 50 More Fighter Jets in 2017,” Diplomat, February 8, 2017, https://thediplomat.com/2017/02/pakistan-to-order-50-more-fighter-jets-in-2017/ (accessed November 26, 2017).

  55. Ipsita Chakravarty, “Why Has India Been Silent about the Chemical Attacks in Syria?” Scroll.in, April 8, 2017, https://scroll.in/article/834039/why-has-india-been-silent-about-the-chemical-attacks-in-syria (accessed October 29, 2017).

  56. Devirupa Mitra, “Pakistan Critical to Defeating ISIS: Russian Special Rep to Afghanistan,” Wire, December 5, 2016, https://thewire.in/84672/pakistan-isis-afghanistan-russia/ (accessed May 29, 2017).

  57. David Brewster, “India Plays the Balochistan Card with China,” Interpreter, August 22, 2016, https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/india-plays-balochistan-card-china (accessed May 29, 2017).

  58. M. Ilyas Khan, “India's ‘Surgical Strikes’ in Kashmir: Truth or Illusion?” BBC News, October 23, 2016, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-37702790 (accessed May 29, 2017). About ten million people live in Indian-administrated Jammu and Kashmir and 4.5 million in Pakistani-run Azad Kashmir. There are 1.8 million people in the Gilgit-Baltistan autonomous territory, which Pakistan created from northern Kashmir and the two small princely states of Hunza and Nagar in 1970.

  59. “Is India Planning to Cut Off Pakistan's Water Supply?” American Interest, September 27, 2016, https://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/09/27/is-india-planning-to-cut-off-pakistans-water-supply/ (accessed May 29, 2017).

  60. David Brewster, “India Plays the Balochistan Card with China.”

  61. “Highlights of PM Modi's Independence Day speech,” Times of India, August 15, 2017, https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/highlights-of-pm-modis-independence-day-speech/articleshow/60067783.cms (assessed November 7, 2016).

  62. “Pakistan Prime Minister Slams India's ‘Expansionist Designs’ in Independence Day Address,” First Post, August 16, 2017, http://www.firstpost.com/world/pakistan-prime-minister-slams-indias-expansionist-designs-in-independence-day-address-full-text-of-his-speech-3932719.html (assessed November 7, 2016).

  63. Emanuele Scimia, “India Is Buying 36 Rafale Fighters from France (and Pakistan Should Worry),” National Interest, October 3, 2016, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/indias-buying-36-rafale-fighters-france-pakistan-should-17911 (accessed May 29, 2017). Gady, “Pakistan to Order 50 More Fighter Jets.”

  64. Arif Rafiq, “India's Modi Is Playing the Wrong Game against China and Pakistan,” National Interest, August 21, 2016, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/indias-modi-playing-the-wrong-game-against-china-pakistan-17411?page=3 (accessed May 2
9, 2017).

  CHAPTER 7: CHINA, NORTH KOREA, AND THE RISK OF WAR IN THE INDO-PACIFIC

  1. Will Ripley, “North Korean Official: Take Hydrogen Bomb Threat ‘Literally,’” CNN, October 26, 2017, http://edition.cnn.com/2017/10/25/politics/north-korea-us-hydrogen-bomb-threat/index.html (accessed November 14, 2017).

  2. Nahal Toosi and David Cohen, “Trump Undercuts Tillerson's Efforts on North Korea,” Politico, October 1, 2017, https://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/01/trump-tillerson-korea-twitter-243339 (accessed November 14, 2017).

  3. Some diplomats argue that Tillerson's advisers have isolated him from State Department expertise and see this restructuring as creating bottlenecks. Eliana Johnson and Michael Crowley, “The Bottleneck in Rex Tillerson's State Department,” Politico, June 4, 2017, https://www.politico.com/story/2017/06/04/rex-tillerson-state-department-bottleneck-239107 (accessed November 14, 2017). Others see the restructuring as a politically motivated Republican purge against the predominantly Democratic State Department bureaucracy, while still others argue that Tillerson is not downsizing as much as Trump desires. Nahal Toosi, “Diplomats Fear Tillerson Transparency Push Is Linked to Clinton Emails,” Politico, November 7, 2017, https://www.politico.com/story/2017/11/07/tillerson-state-clinton-emails-244626 (accessed November 14, 2017).

  4. Caren Bohan and David Brunnstrom, “Trump Says US Not Necessarily Bound by ‘One China’ Policy,” Reuters, December 12, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-china-idUSKBN1400TY (accessed May 30, 2017).

  5. Politico magazine revealed that Bob Dole, the former Senate Majority Leader and 1996 Republican presidential nominee, had lobbied the Trump team for months on behalf of the Taiwanese government.

  6. Tyler Durden, “Chinese Carrier Sails by Taiwan, Enters Contested South China Sea,” ZeroHedge, December 26, 2016, http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-12-26/chinese-carrier-sails-taiwan-enters-contested-south-china-sea (accessed May 30, 2017).

  7. Matthew M. Burke and Chiyomi Sumida, “China Reportedly Responds to Trump's Taiwan Call by Flying Nuclear-Capable Bomber,” Stars and Stripes, December 12, 2016, http://www.stripes.com/news/china-reportedly-responds-to-trump-s-taiwan-call-by-flying-nuclear-capable-bomber-1.443999 (accessed May 30, 2017).

  8. David Brunnstrom and Matt Spetalnick, “Tillerson Says China Should Be Barred from South China Sea Islands,” Reuters, January 11, 2017, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-congress-tillerson-china-idUSKBN14V2KZ (accessed October 29, 2017).

  9. Jordan Fabian and Evelyn Rupert, “Trump Promises Chinese President He'll Honor ‘One China’ Policy,” Hill, February 10, 2017, http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/318874-trump-to-honor-one-china-policy (accessed May 30, 2017). Tillerson later softened his statement about stopping Chinese access to the islands, saying that in the event of an unspecified “contingency,” the United States and its allies “must be capable of limiting China's access to and use of” those islands to pose a threat. Idrees Ali, “Exclusive: China Finishing South China Sea Buildings That Could House Missiles—US Officials,” Reuters, February 21, 2017, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-usa-southchinasea-exclusive-idUSKBN161029 (accessed May 30, 2017).

  10. “Projected GDP Ranking (2016–2020),” Statistics Times, December 16, 2016, http://statisticstimes.com/economy/projected-world-gdp-ranking.php (accessed May 30, 2017); Liyan Chen, “2015 Global 2000: The World's Largest Banks,” Forbes, May 6, 2015, http://www.forbes.com/sites/liyanchen/2015/05/06/2015-global-2000-the-worlds-largest-banks/#63c5166724f1 (accessed May 30, 2017). In 2015, the top ten productive countries in the world in nominal terms were: the United States, China, Japan, Germany, United Kingdom, France, India, Brazil, Italy, and Canada. In this measure, the US is first and China second; Russia did not even appear in the top ten! But in terms of purchasing power parity (PPP), China came out on top over the US, with Russia in 6th place.

  11. Mike Patton, “China's Economy Will Overtake the U.S. in 2018,” Forbes, https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikepatton/2016/04/29/global-economic-news-china-will-surpass-the-u-s-in-2018/#32bf7839224a (accessed November 8, 2017).

  12. Robert D. Kaplan, “Why the South China Sea Is So Crucial,” Business Insider Australia, February 20, 2015, https://www.businessinsider.com.au/why-the-south-china-sea-is-so-crucial-2015-2/ (accessed November 8, 2017).

  13. Harold Raveche, “How Trump, Tillerson Could Bring Peace to South China Sea,” Hill, March 23, 2017, http://thehill.com/blogs/pundits-blog/international-affairs/325620-how-trump-tillerson-could-bring-peace-to-south-china (accessed October 29, 2017). Superoptimists claim that it could possess oil reserves as high as 130 billion barrels, which would make it the second largest reserve, under Saudi Arabia. See Kaplan, “Why the South China Sea Is So Crucial.”

  14. Jesse Johnson, “Behind the Scenes, Tillerson Tones down Rhetoric on South China Sea,” Japan Times, February 7, 2017, http://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2017/02/07/asia-pacific/behind-scenes-tillerson-tones-rhetoric-south-china-sea/#.WR7rcvqGP8Q (accessed October 29, 2017).

  15. Minnie Chan, “South China Sea Air Strips’ Main Role Is ‘to Defend Hainan Nuclear Submarine Base,’” South China Morning Post, July 24, 2016, http://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy-defence/article/1993754/south-china-sea-air-strips-main-role-defend-hainan (accessed October 29, 2017).

  16. Permanent Court of Arbitration, “The South China Sea Arbitration (The Republic of Philippines v. The People's Republic of China),” Case View: Case no. 2013-19, http://www.pcacases.com/web/view/7 (accessed May 30, 2017); see also “PCA Case No. 2013-19: The South China Sea Arbitration Award of 12 July 2016,” http://www.pcacases.com/web/sendAttach/2086 (accessed November 2, 2017).

  17. Andrew S. Erickson, “China's Blueprint for Sea Power,” China Brief 16, no. 11 (July 6, 2016), Jamestown, https://jamestown.org/program/chinas-blueprint-for-sea-power/#sthash.iBD4wLgr.dpuf (accessed May 30, 2017). Beijing has been developing “killer” anti-aircraft carrier missiles and other asymmetrical forms of weaponry so as to check US, Japanese, and Taiwanese naval and air forces from moving close to the Chinese mainland in case of conflict.

  18. Nidhi Prasad, “Yes, Japan Could Build Nuclear Weapons (But at What Cost?),” National Interest, October 12, 2016, http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/yes-japan-could-build-nuclear-weapons-what-cost-18019?page=2 (accessed May 30, 2017).

  19. Motoko Rich, “Japanese Government Urges Another Increase in Military Spending,” New York Times, August 30, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/31/world/asia/japan-defense-military-budget-shinzo-abe.html (accessed May 30, 2017).

  20. Ibid.

  21. Justin McCurry, “Japan Increases Defence Budget Amid Tensions with China,” Guardian, December 17, 2013, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/dec/17/japan-increases-defence-budget-tensions-china (accessed May 30, 2017).

  22. Other recent incidents include the overflight of a Xian H-6 aircraft over the South China sea in March 2016 and two Xian H-6 bombers and two escort planes additionally flying around Taiwan in late November. These flights are largely in response to US efforts to sustain its hegemony over the South China Sea's international waters using its own nuclear-capable bombers. The Pentagon has repeatedly deployed its own nuclear capable B-52 and B-2 bombers to Guam, which is easily in range of the South China Sea, and which are seen as potential threats to both North Korea and China.

  23. Reinhard Drifte, “The Japan-China Confrontation over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands—Between ‘Shelving’ and ‘Dispute Escalation,’” Asia Pacific Journal 12, no. 30/3 (2014); available online at: Global Research, July 28, 2014, http://www.globalresearch.ca/the-japan-china-confrontation-over-the-senkakudiaoyu-islands-between-shelving-and-dispute-escalation/5393760 (accessed May 30, 2017).

  24. Burke and Sumida, “China Reportedly Responds.”

  25. Brunnstrom and Spetalnick, “Tillerson Says China Should Be Barred.”

  26. These deployments took place just weeks before scheduled talks between Putin and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in Yamaguchi Prefecture on
December 15. The Bal complex, armed with the X-35 anti-ship missile, can hit targets at a range of 120 kilometers (seventy-five miles). The Bastion complex, however, is equipped with supersonic Onyx missiles and can strike not only battleships but also destroy land-based targets within a range of 600 kilometers. This makes it not only a defensive but also an offensive weapon. Vladimir Mikheev, “Military Build-Up in the Kuril Islands: Bad Timing or a Signal from Moscow?” Russia Beyond, November 24, 2016, http://rbth.com/international/2016/11/24/military-build-up-in-the-kuril-islands-bad-timing-or-a-signal-from-moscow_650715 (accessed October 29, 2017). This buildup includes the Borei-class nuclear-powered ballistic-missile submarines (SSBN), test-launching the Bulava intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in the Kamchatka Peninsula.

  27. White House, “Fact Sheet: Advancing the Rebalance to Asia and the Pacific,” Office of the Press Secretary, November 16, 2017, https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/the-press-office/2015/11/16/fact-sheet-advancing-rebalance-asia-and-pacific (November 14, 2017).

  28. Douglas H. Paal, “How Trump Should Deal with China,” Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, December 12, 2016, http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/12/12/how-trump-should-deal-with-china-pub-66418 (accessed May 30, 2017). Andrew S. Erickson, “China's Blueprint for Sea Power,” Jamestown Foundation, July 6, 2016, https://jamestown.org/program/beijing-talks-tough-new-cold-war-asia/ (accessed May 30, 2017).

  29. Not all extrajudicial killing is related to drugs. See “License to Kill,” Human Rights Watch, March 2, 2017, https://www.hrw.org/report/2017/03/02/license-kill/philippine-police-killings-dutertes-war-drugs (November 14, 2017).

  30. Phone Call between Trump and Duterte (Pasas City, Philippines: Office of American Affairs, April 29, 2017), https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3729123-POTUS-RD-Doc.html#document/p1 (accessed October 30, 2017).