World War Trump

by Hall Gardner

  51. “UN Envoy Urges Russia, Iran, Turkey to Convene Further Syrian Talks,” RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, March 25, 2017, https://www.rferl.org/a/syria-un-envoy-urges-talks-russia-iran-turkey/28390318.html (accessed October 30, 2017).

  52. Margaret Talev and Jennifer Jacobs, “Trump Praises Erdogan for ‘High Marks’ amid Crackdown Concerns,” Bloomberg Politics, September 21, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-09-21/trump-praises-erdogan-for-high-marks-amid-crackdown-concerns (accessed November 14, 2017).

  53. Ipsita Chakravarty, “Why Has India Been Silent about the Chemical Attacks in Syria?” Scroll.in, April 8, 2017, https://scroll.in/article/834039/why-has-india-been-silent-about-the-chemical-attacks-in-syria (accessed October 30, 2017).

  54. Richard Nephew, “How the Iran Deal Prevents a Covert Nuclear Weapons Program,” Arms Control Today, September 2, 2015; Martin Zonas, “Iran Nuclear Deal: There Is No Alternative,” Economonitor, April 7, 2015, http://www.economonitor.com/blog/2015/04/iran-nuclear-deal-there-is-no-alternative/ (accessed October 30, 2017).

  55. Sarah Begley, “Read Donald Trump's Full Speech to AIPAC,” Time, March 21, 2016, http://time.com/4267058/donald-trump-aipac-speech-transcript/ (accessed May 30, 2017). Benjamin Netanyahu immediately denounced the Iranian nuclear accord and continued to threaten a potential military strike against Iranian nuclear infrastructure. See, for example, analysis by Ben Caspit, “Netanyahu Threatens to ‘Kill Himself’ in Order to Stop Iran Deal,” Al-Monitor, July 15, 2015, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/07/benjamin-netanyahu-iran-nuclear-deal-inspection-clauses.html# (accessed May 30, 2017).

  56. Bozorgmehr Sharafedin, “Iran Confirms Missile Test, Drawing Tough Response from Trump Aide,” Reuters, February 1, 2017, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-iran-missiles-idUSKBN15G3ZO (accessed October 30, 2017).

  57. Peter Kenyon, “Did Iran's Ballistic Missile Test Violate a UN Resolution?” NPR, February 3, 2017, http://www.npr.org/sections/parallels/2017/02/03/513229839/did-irans-ballistic-missile-test-violate-a-u-n-resolution (accessed May 30, 2017).

  58. As of October 15, 2017, the US Congress is to decide in sixty days whether Iran is actually cheating on the Iran nuclear accord, the JCPOA. On the one hand, President Trump had been urged to decertify the treaty by Senators Tom Cotton, Ted Cruz, David A. Perdue, and Marco Rubio, and by former Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, for example. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also demanded renegotiation of JCPOA. On the other hand, US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson and US Secretary of Defense James Mattis, and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Joseph Dunford, have all argued that the maintenance of the JCPOA is in the US national security interest, and have been reluctant to decertify it. Former US Secretaries of State John Kerry and Madeleine Albright have both strongly supported the JCPOA. Uzi Arad, the former National Security Advisor of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, has urged the White House and Congress not to abandon the JCPOA. In addition, a group of over 180 Democrats led by Representatives Ted Deutch (FL) and David Price (NC) sent a letter to President Trump urging him to recertify the Iran nuclear accord to Congress even before the October 15 deadline. It is possible that Congress could decide to maintain the JCPOA. But this possibility appears unlikely due to strong opposition to JCPOA among both Republicans and Democrats. See interview with Hall Gardner and Majid Golpour (in French), “Trois questions sur l'accord nucléaire iranien,” Contrepoints, October 15, 2017, https://www.contrepoints.org/2017/10/12/300772-trois-questions-laccord-nucleaire-iranien (accessed November 14, 2017).

  59. Thomas Erdbrink, “As Iran and US Leaders Trade Barbs, Big Deals Proceed,” New York Times, May 28, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/28/world/middleeast/iran-nuclear-deal-hassan-rouhani-donald-trump.html (accessed October 30, 2017).

  60. Ken Bredemeier, “Iran Warns US of Possible Missile Attack If It Imposes New Sanctions,” VOA, October 08, 2017, https://www.voanews.com/a/iran-guard-chief-warns-us-against-imposing-new-sanctions/4061320.html (accessed November 15, 2017).

  61. Christopher Woody, “Trump: The US Is Ready to Leave One of its Most Important Military Bases If the Gulf Crisis Worsens,” Business Insider, July 19, 2017, http://www.businessinsider.fr/us/trump-us-is-ready-to-leave-al-udeid-military-base-amid-gulf-crisis-2017-7/ (accessed November 15, 2017).

  62. “How the Battle for Mosul Unfolded,” BBC News, July 10, 2017, http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-37702442 (accessed May 29, 2017).

  63. Angela Dewan and Tim Lister, “Mosul Completely Freed from ISIS: What's Next for the City Left in Ruins?” CNN, July 10, 2017 http://edition.cnn.com/2017/07/10/middleeast/mosul-what-next/index.html (accessed November 15, 2017).

  64. SIGAR's High-Risk List (Arlington, VA: Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction), https://www.sigar.mil/interactive-reports/high-risk-list/index.html (accessed May 29, 2017).

  65. Missy Ryan Greg Jaffe, “Donald Trump to Declare War on Taliban in Afghanistan Despite Experts’ Concerns,” Independent, May 9, 2017, http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-afghanstan-taliban-us-troop-surge-islamist-militants-talks-battle-fight-general-a7725601.html (accessed May 29, 2017).

  66. David Corn, “Here's More Evidence That Trump Did Not Oppose the Iraq War Before It Began,” Mother Jones, September. 2, 2016, http://www.motherjones.com/politics/2016/09/heres-more-evidence-trump-did-not-oppose-iraq-war/ (accessed November 15, 2017).

  67. Hallie Jackson and Erik Ortiz, “Trump Weighs Sending as Many as 5,000 More Troops to Afghanistan,” NBC News, May 9, 2017, http://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/trump-weighs-sending-many-5-000-more-troops-afghanistan-n756751 (accessed May 29, 2017).

  68. Devirupa Mitra, “Pakistan Critical to Defeating ISIS: Russian Special Rep to Afghanistan,” Wire, December 5, 2016, https://thewire.in/84672/pakistan-isis-afghanistan-russia/ (accessed May 29, 2017).

  69. Masood Saifullah, “Trump's Afghanistan Policy Will Face Big Limitations,” Deutsche Welle, May 2, 2017, http://www.dw.com/en/trumps-afghanistan-policy-will-face-big-limitations/a-38661290 (accessed May 29, 2017).

  70. A high-ranking Russian official, Zamir Kubalov, was quoted as saying that “our (Russian) interests are the same as Taliban in fighting Daesh.” Indrani Bagchi, “Russia's Stand on Taliban Is Trouble for India,” India Times, December 15, 2016, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/articleshow/56001501.cms (accessed October 30, 2017). Kubalov is seen as the brains behind the new Russian rapprochement with Pakistan.

  71. Tillerson: “The ongoing commitment of NATO Allies and partners to peace in Afghanistan, including to an eventual settlement between the Afghan government and the Taliban, protects this Alliance's interests, and, when successful, ensures that Afghanistan never again becomes a safe haven for terrorists.” Rex W. Tillerson, “NATO Foreign Ministerial Intervention Remarks” (speech; Brussels, Belgium: US Department of State, March 31, 2017), https://www.state.gov/secretary/remarks/2017/03/269339.htm (accessed May 29, 2017).

  72. Saifullah, “Trump's Afghanistan Policy.”

  73. Peter Baker and Michael D. Shearmay, “Trump Softens Tone on Islam but Calls for Purge of ‘Foot Soldiers of Evil,’” New York Times, May 21, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/21/world/middleeast/trump-saudi-arabia-islam-speech.html?_r=0 (accessed October 30, 2017).

  74. Zainab Fattah, “Guide to $400 Billion in Saudi-U.S. Deals: Black Hawks to Oil,” Bloomberg, May 31, 2017, https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/2017/05/22/guide-to-400-billion-in-saudi-u-s-deals-black-hawks-to-oil (accessed November 15, 2017).

  75. For a Qatari perspective, “Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Widens Purge,” Al Jazeera, November 6, 2017, http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/11/saudi-crown-prince-mohammed-bin-salman-widens-purge-171106104312835.html (accessed November 15, 2017). For a Yemeni perspective, “Saudi Prince Mohammad bin Salman Consolidates Power & Purges Rivals under ‘Anti-Corruption’ Pretense Story, Interview with Toby Jones and Afrah Nasser,” Democracy Now, November 9, 2017,
https://www.democracynow.org/2017/11/9/saudi_prince_mohammad_bin_salman_consolidates (accessed November 15, 2017).

  CHAPTER 9: PEACE THROUGH STRENGTH? OR WORLD WAR TRUMP?

  1. Donald Trump, The Art of the Deal (New York: Random House, 1987).

  2. The lifting of sanctions on Moscow—without reinforcing NATO's eastern flank—will be interpreted by Moscow “as consent” to “further expansion,” and “the result of a policy not to ‘aggravate’ Russia and instead to seek ‘constructive dialogue’ will be war.” Przemyslaw Zurawski vel Grajekski, in Kinga Redlowska, ed., NATO: Rethink, Realign, React (Warsaw: Institute for Eastern Studies, 2016), p. 9.

  3. Gilbert Doctorow, “Trump Quiets Some Russian Doubts,” Consortium News, January 30, 2017, https://consortiumnews.com/2017/01/30/trump-quiets-some-russian-doubts/ (accessed May 29, 2017).

  4. I. William Zartman, “The Timing of Peace Initiatives: Hurting Stalemates and Ripe Moments,” Global Review of Ethnopolitics 1, no. 1 (September 2001): 8–18.

  5. For Minsk II accords: “Full Text of the Minsk Agreement,” Financial Times, February 15, 2015, https://www.ft.com/content/21b8f98e-b2a5-11e4-b234-00144feab7de (accessed May 29, 2017).

  6. Gwendolyn Sasse, “Constitution Making in Ukraine: Refocusing the Debate,” Carnegie Europe, April 12, 2016, http://carnegieeurope.eu/2016/04/12/constitution-making-in-ukraine-refocusing-debate-pub-63304 (accessed May 29, 2017).

  7. Vladimir Frolov, “Russia Looks On as Ukraine Hangs in the Balance,” Moscow Times, April 13, 2016, http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/opinion/article/russia-looks-on-as-ukraine-hangs-in-the-balance-op-ed/565762.html (accessed May 29, 2017). See also Brian Milakovsky, “Understanding the ‘Under Control’ Donbas,” Woodrow Wilson Center, Kennan Cable, no. 16 (April 2016), https://www.wilsoncenter.org/publication/kennan-cable-no16-understanding-the-under-control-donbas (accessed October 30, 2017); Nicolai Petro, “Bringing Ukraine Back into Focus: How to End the New Cold War and Provide Effective Political Assistance to Ukraine,” Carnegie Council, August 19, 2015, https://www.carnegiecouncil.org/publications/articles_papers_reports/742 (accessed October 30, 2017).

  8. “Savchenko Meets Russia-Backed Separatist Leaders, Stirring Outrage,” RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty, December 12, 2016, http://www.rferl.org/a/ukraine-savchenko-meets-separatists-minsk-plotnitsky-zakharchenko/28172257.html (accessed May 30, 2017).

  9. Philip Karber and Phillip Petersen, in Redlowska, ed., NATO Rethink, Realign, React, p. 36.

  10. One proposal is that Russia and the United States and Europeans “agree to disagree” for the indefinite future over the diplomatic status of Crimea; that the status quo in Donbas as part of Ukraine continues, with an effectively enforced cease-fire; and that a multibillion-dollar aid package be assembled from international sources directed to economic recovery in Ukraine. And, finally, a full and frank exchange on Russian involvement in US domestic elections must be addressed. See Jeffrey Burt, James Hitch, Peter Pettibone, and Thomas Shillinglaw, “Trump, Eisenhower and Russia: A Chance for Peace,” National Interest, November 5, 2017, http://nationalinterest.org/feature/trump-eisenhower-russia-chance-peace-23051?page=2 (accessed November 15, 2017). In the view of this author, an agreement in which Russia and the West “agree to disagree” for the indefinite future on the diplomatic status of Crimea, just as the Soviet Union and United States did during the Cold War with respect to the Baltic states, will not prove sufficient to guarantee peace as long as Kiev retains its irredentist claims to Crimea and does not adopt a formally neutral stance with respect to NATO and the Russian-led CSTO.

  11. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Washington DC: NATO, April 4, 1949), http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm (accessed October 30, 2017). Hall Gardner, NATO Expansion and US Strategy in Asia (Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan, 2013); Hall Gardner, Crimea, Global Rivalry and the Vengeance of History (New York: Palgrave Macmillan, 2015).

  12. Verkhovna Rada Staff, “Declaration of State Sovereignty of Ukraine,” Verkhovna Rada of the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, http://static.rada.gov.ua/site/postanova_eng/Declaration_of_State_Sovereignty_of_Ukraine_rev1.htm (accessed May 29, 2017).

  13. “Gorbachev: Ukraine Should Sign Neutrality into Constitution,” Moscow Times, August 18, 2016, https://themoscowtimes.com/news/ukraine-must-sign-neutrality-into-its-constitution-gorbachev-55027 (accessed May 29, 2017).

  14. The plan may have been originally proposed by Opposition Bloc, a parliamentary faction that formed in 2014 from remnants of the old party of the ousted pro-Kremlin President Viktor Yanukovych. Nick Paton Walsh, Salma Abdelaziz, and Victoria Butenko, “Lawmaker: Trump Lawyer Discussed Ukraine Deal,” CNN, February 24, 2017, http://edition.cnn.com/2017/02/23/politics/trump-lawyer-ukraine-peace-deal/ (accessed May 30, 2017).

  The Ukrainian ambassador, Mr. Chaly, rejected a lease of that kind. “It is a gross violation of the Constitution…. Such ideas can be pitched or pushed through only by those openly or covertly representing Russian interests.” Megan Twohey and Scott Shane, “A Back-Channel Plan for Ukraine and Russia, Courtesy of Trump Associates,” New York Times, February 19, 2017, https://www.nytimes.com/2017/02/19/us/politics/donald-trump-ukraine-russia.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news&_r=1 (accessed May 30, 2017).

  15. This is what the British did after seizing Hong Kong in 1847—and then leasing it for 150 years before returning Hong Kong to China in 1997, a fact which has not pleased all Hong Kong residents. The US had leased the Panama Canal Zone after supporting and recognizing Panama's independence from Colombia. In the 1921 Thomson–Urrutia Treaty, the US then paid off Colombia and granted it special privileges in the Canal Zone for recognizing Panama's independence.

  16. Twohey and Shane, “A Back-Channel Plan”; Julia Ioffe, “The Mystery of the Ukraine Peace Plan,” Atlantic, February 20, 2017, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/02/ukraine-peace-plan/517275/ (accessed May 30, 2017).

  17. Przemyslaw Zurawski vel Grajekski, in Redlowska, ed., NATO Rethink, Realign, React, p. 15.

  18. Andrew E. Kramer, “Ethnic Conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan Flares Anew,” New York Times, April 4, 2016, https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/05/world/europe/ethnic-conflict-between-armenia-and-azerbaijan-flares-anew.html?_r=0 (accessed October 30, 2017).

  19. US Ambassador Vershbow has rightly argued for such deployments, but NATO has done little to develop the PfP. Alexander Vershbow, “Trump to Lavrov: Get Out of Ukraine or Face Stiffer Sanctions,” Newsweek, May 9, 2015, http://www.newsweek.com/trump-lavrov-get-out-ukraine-or-face-stiffer-sanctions-606246 (accessed May 30, 2017).

  20. Eleni Fotiou, “Caucasus Stability and Cooperation Platform: What Is at Stake for Regional Cooperation?” ICBSS Policy Brief, no. 16 (June 2009), https://www.files.ethz.ch/isn/104737/PB_16.pdf (accessed October 30, 2017).

  21. Henry Kissinger, “How the Ukraine Crisis Ends,” Washington Post, March 5, 2014. See also Des Browne, Wolfgang Ischinger, Igor S. Ivanov, Sam Nunn, and Adam Daniel Rotfeld, “Ukraine Must Not Become a New Berlin Wall,” Nuclear Threat Institute, March 13, 2014.

  22. Gabriela Baczynska and Robin Emmott, “Germany, France Seek Stronger EU Defense after Brexit: Document,” Reuters, September 12, 2016, http://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-defense-idUSKCN11I1XU (accessed October 30, 2017).

  23. See Sven Biscop, “How the EU Can Save NATO,” Security Policy Brief, no. 83 (Brussels, Belgium: Egmont Institute, March 2017), www.egmontinstitute.be/wp-content/uploads/2017/03/SBP83.pdf (accessed October 30, 2017).

  24. NATO, “Relations with the European Union” North Atlantic Treaty Organization, March 30, 2017, http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_49217.htm (accessed October 30, 2017).

  25. White Paper on the Future of Europe (Brussels, Belgium: European Commission, March 1, 2017), https://ec.europa.eu/commission/sites/beta-political/files/white_paper_on_the_future_of_europe_en.pdf (accessed October 30, 2017).

&
nbsp; 26. Y. Varoufakis, S. Holland, and J. K. Galbraith, “A Modest Proposal for Resolving the Eurozone Crisis,” Genius, https://genius.com/Y-varoufakis-s-holland-and-jk-galbraith-a-modest-proposal-for-resolving-the-eurozone-crisis-annotated (accessed May 30, 2017).

  And even this 2008 crisis stemmed, at least in part, from the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep Federal interest rates artificially low (in the view of many economists) in the period from 2002–2004 during the George W. Bush administration.

  27. Jorge Rodríguez, “EU's New Thinking on Decentralisation and Territorial Development,” European Centre for Development Policy Management, June 2015, http://ecdpm.org/great-insights/territorial-development-2/eus-new-thinking-on-decentralisation-and-territorial-development/ (accessed May 30, 2017).

  28. Hall Gardner, NATO Expansion and US Strategy in Asia (New York: Palgrave MacMillan, 2013), chap. 7.

  29. Ayhan Simsek, “Germany Opposes Call to End Turkey's EU Accession Talks,” AA, November 25, 2016, http://aa.com.tr/en/europe/germany-opposes-call-to-end-turkey-s-eu-accession-talks/693243 (accessed November 15, 2017).

  30. Christopher De Bellaigue, “Welcome to Demokrasi: How Erdogan Got More Popular than Ever,” Guardian, August 30, 2016, https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/30/welcome-to-demokrasi-how-erdogan-got-more-popular-than-ever (accessed May 29, 2017).

  31. Paul Tugwell and Selcan Hacaoglu, “Why the World's Watching Cyprus Unification Talks,” Bloomberg, January 9, 2017, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-08/why-the-world-s-watching-cyprus-unification-talks-quicktake-q-a (accessed October 30, 2017).

  32. Patrick Wintour, “Cyprus Peace Talks:—All You Need to Know,” Guardian, January 9, 2017, https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/jan/09/cyprus-peace-talks-all-you-need-to-know (accessed May 31, 2017); “Publications,” European Union Institute for Security Studies, http://www.iss.europa.eu/publications/detail/article/toward-a-new-euro-atlantic-security-framework/ (accessed October 30, 2017).

  33. Laura Rozen, “Syria Talks Pulled Back from Brink,” Al Monitor, April 18, 2016, http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/04/syria-talks-geneva-opposition-assad-mistura.html (accessed October 30, 2017). Ian Black, “All Eyes on US and Russia as Syria Deadline Passes,” Guardian, February 19, 2016, http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/feb/19/all-eyes-on-us-and-russia-as-syria-deadline-passes (accessed October 30, 2017).