Grantville Gazette Volume 27

by edited by Paula Goodlett

  The Ottomans' first impressions of Grantville would thus come from the letters sent by Grantville and from the information presented by diplomats who were at best neutral and more often hostile to Grantville. So what impressions would have been created?

  The letters would have been examined carefully—after all, they would be certain to represent the most positive image of this new power. While none of these letters have been published, they would presumably have included an offer of friendly relations and the explanation that Grantville had been somehow transported back more than three hundred years in the future. The offer of friendly relations would presumably have included offers of access to whatever the up-timers knew about what the years to come held for the Ottomans as well as offers to allow the Ottomans to share in the advanced technological knowledge of the up-timers.

  In Europe, such actions meant that Grantville found allies in leaders who, either out of necessity or enlightenment, accepted the idea that Grantville is from a reasonable future and were receptive in varying degrees to its principles, policies, and knowledge. To a larger degree than anyone in Grantville may understand, this acceptance rested on having some common world views. In the Ottoman Empire, the situation is going to be rather different. The up-timers will probably not appreciate how their explanation of their presence and their offers will have alarmed and outraged the Ottomans.

  The claim that Grantville is from the future, and thus that its people know what is to come, sounds perilously like a claim to being an entire city of prophets. Every Muslim knows that Muhammad is the last prophet, and so the first reaction of the Ottoman in the street to the description of the up-timer's origin is likely to be that it is clearly a lie, and a blasphemous lie at that.[16] The fact of this claim would have justified Sultan Murad's order to execute up-timers to the average citizen of the Empire. Indeed, given the prominence of the fundamentalist Kadizadeli movement, there might have been a risk of riots if he had not given such an order.[17]

  Among the men of the ulema, the words of the up-timers will have been parsed more carefully, and it will have been recognized that the up-timers themselves are not claiming to be prophets. At the same time their claim of having been translated to the seventeenth-century present from the twentieth-century future will be examined very carefully.

  The first question will be "Is this true?"—was the Ring of Fire (hereafter RoF) a real event or is it simply some sort of fantastic lie maintained for unfathomable reasons? Arguing for the truth of the matter will be the amazing mechanisms and advanced skills of the up-timers, along with the fact that some of these mechanisms can be duplicated and the skills taught—this means that they are not simple illusions. The possibility that it is a very elaborate deception perpetrated by Shaitan will not be ruled out absolutely, but they will probably accept that Grantville does come from the future, at least as a working hypothesis. This however will simply have led to more questions.

  Accepting the realty of the RoF means that you have to explain how it happened and why. Was it the work of man, of Allah, or of Shaitan? The ulema will have been looking at everything that they could find out to decide the answers, and what they learn will not have looked good for Grantville.

  First of all, in the city of Grantville as it appeared, there were Christian Churches aplenty, and a diverse population of various sorts of Christians and even Jews and believers in certain other odd ideas (including atheists!), and not one single Muslim! Yet it would be obvious to any seventeenth-century Ottoman Muslim that, while there might be a very few Christians and Jews still hanging on to their misguided beliefs almost four centuries in the future, the vast majority of the world's population in the twentieth century would be Muslim (and likely citizens of the Ottoman Empire as well).

  Then there is the issue of the changes that Grantville brings. There is a hadith that says:

  "Beware of matters newly begun, for every matter newly begun is innovation, every innovation is misguidance, and every misguidance is in hell."

  It is not correct to say that innovations (or bid'a, singular bid'at) are outlawed—in fact, in the seventeenth century the majority of Islamic jurists would require that an innovation be demonstrated to be bad to forbid it, rather than requiring that it be shown to be good to allow it. But, while Murad IV himself seems to have been rather open-minded towards inventions, particularly practical or entertaining ones, the pious, and particularly the ultrapious, who have significant influence over popular opinion in this period, tend to be very suspicious of innovations. And Grantville, which is demonstrably and suspiciously non-Islamic, is spreading innovations by the hundreds, and doing so actively.

  In the ordinary course of things, an innovation would be examined in a somewhat leisurely manner to determine, based on its benefits or the harm it did (or the lack of either benefit or harm), where it falls in the five categories of actions (obligatory, recommended, permissible, offensive, and unlawful). The sheer volume of changes introduced by Grantville makes this considered method of evaluation impossible. This would be viewed in and of itself as evidence of malign intent—while some or even a majority of these innovations might be harmless or even good, it could well be that the good innovations are there to help mask the evil ones.

  Then there is the issue of politics. The ideal of representative democracy promoted by Grantville is revolutionary in Europe. In the Ottoman Empire it will be seen as Satanic. The Reformation and the counter-Reformation have undercut the idea that kings rule by divine right in Europe. There has been no comparable movement in the Islamic countries. The idea that men, rather than God, should choose those who rule is simply not going to fly. From the point of view of even the most moderate Muslims in the seventeenth century, this will seem to be nothing more or less than an attempt to place men above God.

  In short, all the things the up-timers think of as their good points would be viewed in a very different way by the Ottomans. To this general bad impression produced by their own words and actions will be added the views of the foreign diplomats. Needless to say, given who the Ottomans will be asking, this information will be unlikely to change the negative first impression. The foreign diplomats from countries hostile to the up-timers will not have to work very hard to make things look even worse. The diplomats may simply present the information about the Empire's future that their agents find in the Grantville library.

  To begin with, there is no detailed popular history of Murad IV's reign in the English language comparable to those available for the Thirty Years' War. While there are popular histories of the Ottoman Empire, the breadth of their coverage tends to mean that Murad's reign is summarized in a few pages—the information available is likely less than reliable and can most likely be summarized as "came to power as a child, was bloodthirsty and a drunk, killed his brothers except crazy Ibrahim, recaptured Erivan but lost it, recaptured Baghdad, died of cirrhosis and a morbid fear of an eclipse."[18],[19] This sort of description is unlikely to produce warm feelings of good fellowship in the sultan or his advisors. This lack of detailed up-time information about the current state of the Ottoman Empire may also be interpreted as evidence that Allah is shielding his people from the evil up-timers.

  What Grantville will have had in significant quantities on the Ottomans was information about the end of the empire, especially its final collapse (the sick man of Europe, chapters in books about World War I), as well as information on its successor states. This won't help much either, especially if presented by, say, a French emissary in a context aimed at preventing Ottoman cooperation with up-timers. It may safely be assumed that the reaction to the information that the "Christian powers" split up the empire and that they subsequently established a state controlled by Jews within its former borders will not be received well.[20] The Ottoman reaction to the descriptions that will be given of American support for Israel against the Arab Muslim coalitions and its direct attack on a Muslim nation in the first Gulf War can only be imagined.[21] The descriptions that woul
d be given by the hostile diplomats of the disruptions caused by new technology, and of the effects of the political activities of Grantville and the Committees of Correspondence will also assure the Ottomans that their initial negative views of these were correct.[22]

  In summary, a careful review of the information available from all sources will have led the Ottomans conclude that the up-timers are both hostile and dangerous. Given all this, the Ottoman reaction of excluding up-timers can be seen to be a reasonable and responsible response to the need to protect their citizens from the potentially malign influences of the inhabitants of Grantville. Further it is the most practical action that can be taken given the constraints imposed by the war with Persia. While some of the advisors will doubtless have expressed the opinion that the best thing to do would be to destroy the infidels immediately, the practical need to pursue the Persian war will have led most to recommend a holding action.[23]

  There will have been other recommendations, of course. The expansion of the USE will be seen as threatening. In part this is because any unification of the "Christian" nations is going to be perceived as threatening—calls for the reconquest of the Holy Land are a part of European politics during this period, and unification is going to be perceived as a first step. Further, it is likely that the USE's actions (including those of the seditious Committees of Correspondence) will appear to the Ottomans to be directed against the common assumptions underlying autocratic rule in both Europe and the empire and in particular against their special European partner, France.[24] This will lead the sultan's advisors to recommend that the pace of the war against the Persians be increased so that it can be concluded before the USE will be ready to launch an attack and draw the empire into a two-front war.[25]

  In particular, the events in Europe will have convinced the Ottomans that they must adopt the new military technologies. The structure of the Ottoman Empire means that this can be done. Murad can "fast track" things he sees as necessary, even if there are objections, using his authority as sultan.[26] And there is an already established mechanism that will allow an indirect import of the innovations—the taife-i efrenciyan, or corps of foreign experts.[27] The friendship with the French may be particularly helpful here. Since the French are adapting up-time military technology, it will be possible to adopt the French adaptations with much less upset than would be provoked by taking things directly from Grantville.[28],[29]

  However, despite the need to innovate, there will be political problems, especially given Murad's use of the Kadizadelis to ensure popular support for his regime. Among other things, Kadizadeli doctrine included a firm opposition to all bid'a, including innovations other groups regarded as good, or at least acceptable. For instance, when Türk Ahmed (a Kadizadeli preacher) was asked whether he proposed to get rid of spoons since their use in eating had become popular after the time of the Prophet he answered "Let the people eat with their hands. This is not zifir [a game]. Let the people eat with their hands." On the other hand, it seems likely that the Kadizadeli doctrine that requires obedience to the sultan would also, at least to an extent, tend to temper opposition to anything the sultan wanted to import, especially given the probability that technology transfer will primarily be indirect. Getting something from, say, a French expert who accepts pay from the sultan would be a different matter from approaching the infidels directly.

  The Ottomans will also be trying to gather more information about the up-timers. In particular, it will be necessary to resolve the question of whether the RoF was the work of Allah or an action of Shaitan (in accordance with the will of Allah). The appearance of Grantville, with its absence of Muslims, could be a warning sent by Allah—a demonstration of the consequences of Muslims having strayed from the proper path. This may well be a popular opinion in the upper circles of government, since Murad's reforms are justified in part as a return to the old correct ways and such an interpretation could be used to further support the need for reform. However, with its multiplicity of innovations, many promising to ease life, and implication that the future does not belong to Islam, it could also be a temptation sent by Shaitan. This will be a popular interpretation among the more conservative lower echelons of the ulema, and especially the fundamentalists such as the Kadizadelis.

  From the perspective of the average citizen, these positions need not be distinguished since, whether warning or demonic temptation, the proper response of a Muslim is clearly to reject what is coming from Grantville and hew to the traditions of Islam. At higher levels, however, total rejection will be problematic. If it is a warning, the "histories" from Grantville should be studied by pious and learned men to allow the identification of pitfalls to avoid. And if it is a temptation, the innovations must nevertheless be studied least they give undue advantages to the forces of the unbelievers.

  Related to the problem of the RoF is the problem of the nature of the up-timers themselves. Are they supernatural or human? If supernatural, are they mala'ikah (angels) or evil jinn?If human, are they conmen (a possibility that will have been largely eliminated as the reality of the event was confirmed), human servants of Shaitan (evil men), or simply men (misguided, of course, given that they are not Muslim)?

  The possibility that the up-timers are mala'ikah would have been relatively easy to reject. Angels would not deny the Prophet, but the up-timers do not follow Islam. However, jinn can have the seeming of men.[30] The issue of whether or not the up-timers are jinn may have been settled in 1634 when some were invited to a reception for a "Turkish delegation" in Venice. Since the invitation would have only been extended with the permission of the Ottoman diplomats, it seems probable that at least one reason for it was to allow the emissaries to test the up-timers to determine their nature.[31] Indeed, as this delegation is not included in von Hammer's listing of Ottoman missions to Venice, and as it clearly involves more than a simple messenger, this event seems to be a change produced by the Ring of Fire.[32] It thus seems likely that the Ottomans will have decided by 1635 at the latest that the up-timers are human.

  The question of what kind of human—innocent or evil—is more complex and it is unlikely to be decided without actual contact. This issue is also of much greater, or at least more personal, interest to the up-timers. If someone from Grantville is captured by an Ottoman who believes that up-timers are just people who have been sent by Allah to provide a warning to pious Muslims, the up-timer might not be executed out of hand, since in this case the possibility exists that the individual may be salvageable. At a minimum, execution might be stayed long enough to invite the captive to make the profession of faith to allow him to die a Muslim. Ottoman officials, especially those on the borders, were also prone to following their own interests, and an official who felt that he was dealing with "just a man" might be inclined to ignore orders and see what he could learn. The possibility also exists that the Ottomans might try to acquire up-timers clandestinely for study, either directly or through surrogates.

  Of course, it should be recognized that the interest is not totally one way. The USE has at least some interest in the empire. But the Ottomans may well be trying to ensure that the information flow is one way (to them). As a result, projects aimed at adapting up-time technology may well go unnoticed by Grantville and its allies. The Ottoman Empire is large enough to hide a good many things, and the intelligence that reaches Europe is largely limited to what can be learned in Constantinople and a few other trading centers. Nor is the Ottoman Empire a major intelligence target for the intelligence service of the USE. In part, this is probably due to the fact that there are more pressing needs closer to home. It may also reflect a (probably unconscious) attitude of up-timers that the Empire is not a serious threat, an attitude that would likely be transmitted to their down-time allies.[33] However, the USE seems largely to be relying on Don Francisco Nasi's relations for intelligence on the Ottomans. Given that the Ottomans certainly know about Nasi's function, and that they also certainly know who his relatives are, the USE could
be in for a surprise one day.

  But for the time being there is peace.[34] The Ottoman authorities have elected to study these possibly demonic visitors at a distance while trying to protect their citizens from the up-timers' (at least potentially) malign influence. The Ottoman embargo will prevent the rapid diffusion of up-time knowledge within Ottoman society, and thus prevent the (primarily liberalizing) social effects the knowledge has had in Europe. Even the things the sultan brings in will likely be kept largely out of sight, both to avoid exciting the fundamentalists and for reasons of security. But whatever the ultimate conclusions of the scholars, there is no question that the Ottoman Empire is going to have to deal directly with up-timers at some point. As the USE expands, it will inevitably bump up against the Ottoman Empire. What happens then will depend on what each side thinks about the other, and it seems likely that both sides have a most unclear picture of the other. The eventual encounter promises to be interesting.

  * * *

  ————

  [1] In Eric Flint and Andrew Dennis, 1634:The Galileo Affair, Baen Books, 2004.

  [2] In Karen Bergstralh, "The Treasure Hunters," Grantville Gazette 11, Baen Books.

  [3] Tabaniyassi is a nickname—it means flat-footed.

  [4] Sort of absolute power, anyway. He actually had to work with a mare's nest of competing factions. Including his military, where the janissaries and the cavalrymen of the alti bölük, the six standing cavalry units, had shown they had no qualms about meddling in politics as recently as 1632, when they had threatened to depose Murad. Murad, however, was very good at politics, knowing when to use the carrot of added pay or promotion to a lucrative position as well as when to use the stick of exile or execution.