Labyrinth- the Art of Decision-Making

by Pawel Motyl

  Rule #11. Never stop shaping the organizational culture. It can be your greatest ally, or your worst enemy, in making the right decisions.

  Rule #12. Great leaders are distinguished by their awareness that greatness is no guarantee of infallibility.

  Rule #13. Don’t be a “decision drunk”—use data for illumination, not only for support. Data can be a great ally, when properly analyzed.

  Rule #14. Never ignore the values and convictions of other generations, especially those only just entering the market. Even if their influence on decision-making today is minimal, the new normal means this may change sooner than you expect.

  Rule #15. The world of data overload is also a world of new possibilities.

  Actively seek out opportunities to engage a cost-free force that can radically improve the quality of your decision-making.

  Rule #16. Encourage and create leaders around you. Dispersed leadership involves many people, which means there is less risk of a single person making a poor strategic choice.

  Endnotes

  Introduction

  1. On April 25, 2015, an avalanche triggered by a powerful earthquake that hit Nepal killed twenty-two and injured more than sixty climbers.

  Chapter 2: Turkey Trouble

  1. I borrowed this tale of the poor turkey from Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It originated, though, with David Hume, the eighteenth-century Scottish philosopher, who used the example of fattened geese to illustrate inductive reasoning.

  2. See gizmodo.com/5416781/top-5-assclown-iphone-quotes-in-2007

  3. See jimcollins.com/books/how-the-mighty-fall.html

  Chapter 3: In This Chapter, There Is No Good News

  1. See nature.berkeley.edu/ucce50/ag-labor/7article/article35.htm

  2. Professor Andrew McAfee, a lecturer at Harvard University and MIT, observed a similar phenomenon in his research. He named it the HiPPO effect, from the “highest-paid person’s opinion.”

  3. Analyses carried out by Gregg Murray at Texas Tech University showed that, in US presidential elections, the taller of the two candidates is far more likely to win. See wsj.com/articles/voters-size-up-2016-presidential-candidates-whos-the-tallest-1445996933

  4. S. Milgram, Obedience to Authority: An Experimental View (Harper and Row, 1974), 5.

  5. AFP, “Jean-Marie Messier, l’homme qui se croyait ‘maître du monde,’” Le Point, May 29, 2010. Available at lepoint.fr/bourse/jean-marie-messier-l-homme-qui-se-croyait-maitre-du-monde-dossier-portrait-29-05-2010-460652_81.php

  6. Quoted in Nicholas Carlson, “Groupon CEO Andrew Mason’s Honest, Charming Goodbye Memo: ‘I Was Fired Today,’” www.businessinsider.com, February 28, 2013.

  7. Rakesh Khurana, “The Curse of the Superstar CEO,” Harvard Business Review, September 2002. Available at hbr.org/2002/09/the-curse-of-the-superstar-ceo

  8. G.R. Stephenson, “Cultural Acquisition of a Specific Learned Response among Rhesus Monkeys,” 1967. Available at scribd.com/doc/73492989/Stephenson-1966-Cultural-Acquisition-of-a-Specific-Learned-Response-Among-Rhesus-Monkeys

  9. This roughly translates as “Even if it’s not true, the underlying concept is sound.”

  10. Just how far Concorde was ahead of its time is testified to by the fact that it was nearly half a century after its unveiling before tentative talk began about reintroducing supersonic passenger planes. In the first half of 2017, Boom Technology, a startup founded in 2014, revealed its plans to develop such aircraft, attracting interest from none other than Sir Richard Branson. According to company representatives, the first planes should start appearing in the skies in 2023.

  Chapter 4: Process

  1. David A. Garvin and Michael Roberto, “What You Don’t Know about Making Decisions,” Harvard Business Review, September 2001. Available at hbr.org/2001/09/what-you-dont-know-about-making-decisions#

  2. The mood of overwhelming uncertainty is captured well by the words of Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara, recorded at an EXCOMM meeting and quoted in the 2003 documentary film The Fog of War: “I have no idea what the world will look like after we attack Cuba. How do we stop there?” E. Morris [director], The Fog of War (USA, 2003).

  3. Quoted in Morris, The Fog of War.

  4. More behind-the-scenes negotiations led to the withdrawal of the US Jupiter missiles from Italy and Turkey.

  5. It’s no accident that DARPA was established in the same period. Its activities initially focused on protecting the United States from a Soviet missile attack, but in time it played a key role in the development of inventions such as GPS and the Internet (whose precursor was the ARPANET network, built by DARPA), to name but two.

  6. Jack Swigert joined the crew of Apollo 13 just two days before liftoff, replacing Thomas Kenneth Mattingly II (better known as Ken Mattingly), who had come into contact with someone suffering from German measles and so was at risk of falling ill and infecting the others during the mission.

  7. In N. Buckner and R. Whittlesey [directors], Apollo 13: To the Edge and Back (USA, 1994).

  8. G. Kranz, Failure Is Not an Option: Mission Control from Mercury to Apollo 13 and Beyond (Simon & Schuster, 2000), 320–21.

  9. Kranz, Failure Is Not an Option, 321.

  10. Kranz, Failure Is Not an Option, 335.

  11. In the context of managing innovations, you might know this approach as a Stage-Gate (there are others, as well). Its creators, Robert Cooper and Scott Edgett, defined five stages in the process of introducing a new product or service, separated by four gates. Each gate is a set of indicators that must be achieved before a project moves into the next phase.

  Chapter 5: 改 善

  1. This incident attracted a great deal of media attention. A myriad of books were written, in the form of both first-hand accounts and expert opinions, and two films were produced, 1997’s Into Thin Air, directed by Robert Markowitz and based in large part on the experience of Jon Krakauer, and 2015’s Everest, directed by Baltasar Kormákur.

  2. This is, in fact, true, as climbing demands enormous courage bordering on insanity. It’s interesting, though, that these negative opinions are, in my experience, mostly offered by people with nearly triple-figure BMIs with awful cholesterol levels who spend hours sitting in front of the TV munching fries and downing beers. Strangely, such a lifestyle is not regarded as risky, despite the numerous studies showing the serious health risks resulting from poor diet, alcohol abuse, or lack of physical activity.

  3. This is, of course, the 8,000-meter barrier, which gives Everest and its equally tall fellow mountains their informal name: the eight-thousanders.

  4. Sir John Hunt, though recognized for his undisputed contribution to the organization and logistics of the expedition, remained in the shadow of Edmund Hillary. Hillary himself, in his book View from the Summit, recalls an extremely awkward situation he witnessed. US President Eisenhower, when handing John Hunt the Hubbard Medal awarded him in 1954, addressed him as “Sir Edmund,” evidently confusing him with Hillary, standing alongside, who proceeded to whisper the actual name of the laureate to the president. For the record, the Hubbard Medal was also awarded to Tenzing Norgay (in this case without mistaken identity).

  5. According to Jon Krakauer, four experienced climbers from the South African expedition abandoned the push for the summit as they didn’t agree with Woodall’s domineering style. In the following days, one of the participants who went up to the summit too late and died on the way back to base camp became yet another victim of the mountain.

  6. The tragic earthquake that struck Nepal in April 2015 altered the shape of the Hillary Step. As climbers found in 2016 and 2017, it is now easier to cross and is covered in a large amount of snow and ice.

  7. This issue divided many in the climbing community. There were those who regarded Boukreev as a hero, pointing out his heroic behavior during the night, when he left the camp three times in app
alling conditions to lead down clients lost in the blizzard. Discussions about his behavior only ceased with his death—eighteen months after the events on Everest, on Christmas Day in 1997, Anatoli Boukreev died in an avalanche on Annapurna.

  8. Adventure Consultants brochure. See A. Boukreev and G. Weston DeWalt, The Climb: Tragic Ambitions on Everest (St. Martin’s Griffin Edition, 1999), 6.

  9. Scott Fischer, quoted in J. Krakauer, Into Thin Air (Anchor Books, 1998), 85–86.

  10. Krakauer, Into Thin Air, 85–86.

  11. Krakauer, Into Thin Air, 91.

  12. Cited in B. Weathers and S.G. Michaud, Left for Dead: My Journey Home from Everest (Dell Publishing, 2001), 64, 65.

  13. Cited in A. Boukreev and G. Weston DeWalt, The Climb: Tragic Ambitions on Everest (St. Martin’s Press, 1997).

  14. Unfortunately, we don’t learn from our mistakes. While the Polish expedition up Broad Peak in 2013 achieved its aim of being the first winter ascent, the following days brought tragedy. Only two of the four climbers made it back to base, and Maciej Berbeka and Tomasz Kowalski lost their lives on the slopes of the mountain they’d just conquered. As an investigation by the Polish Mountaineering Association showed, many of the errors that led to Hall’s and Fischer’s disaster were repeated.

  Chapter 6: Something in the Air

  1. “Power distance can therefore be defined as the extent to which the less powerful members of institutions and organizations within a country expect and accept that power is distributed unequally.” G. Hofstede, G. J. Hofstede, and M. Minkov, Cultures and Organizations (McGraw-Hill, 2010), 61.

  2. “Individualism pertains to societies in which the ties between individuals are loose: everyone is expected to look after him- or herself and his or her immediate family. Collectivism as its opposite pertains to societies in which people from birth onward are integrated into strong, cohesive in-groups, which throughout people’s lifetime continue to protect them in exchange for unquestioning loyalty.” Hofstede, Hofstede, and Minkov, Cultures and Organizations, 92.

  3. “A society is called masculine when emotional gender roles are clearly distinct: men are supposed to be assertive, tough, and focused on material success, whereas women are supposed to be more modest, tender, and concerned with the quality of life. A society is called feminine when emotional gender roles overlap: both men and women are supposed to be modest, tender, and concerned with the quality of life.” Hofstede, Hofstede, and Minkov, Cultures and Organizations, 140.

  4. “Uncertainty avoidance can therefore be defined as the extent to which the members of a culture feel threatened by ambiguous or unknown situations.” Hofstede, Hofstede, and Minkov, Cultures and Organizations, 191.

  5. See presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/?pid=42705

  6. The fifth shuttle built, Endeavour, was finished in 1991 to replenish the fleet after the Challenger disaster. Endeavour was constructed of spare parts intended for the remaining shuttles.

  7. John Quinones, “World’s News Today,” ABC TV.

  8. See D. Vaughan, The Challenger Launch Decision (The University of Chicago Press, 1996), 2–6.

  9. P.M. Boffey, “NASA Had Warning of a Disaster Risk Posed by Booster,” New York Times, February 9, 1986.

  10. The mission was finally completed in 2007, when Barbara Morgan went up on the shuttle Endeavour. In 1986, Morgan had been Christa McAuliffe’s backup.

  11. As you read this sad story, please remember the words of President George W. Bush, from his memorial speech on February 4, 2003: “This cause of exploration and discovery is not an option we choose; it is a desire written in the human heart. We find the best among us, send them forth into unmapped darkness, and pray they will return. They go in peace for all mankind, and all mankind is in their debt.” Available at https://history.nasa.gov/columbia/Troxell/Columbia%20Web%20Site/Documents/Executive%20Branch/President%20Bush/pres_memorial.html

  12. See, for example, imd.org/publications/articles/why-so-many-corporate-failures

  13. See nasa.gov/columbia/home/CAIB_Vol1.html

  14. M. Cabbage, “Still Haunted by Columbia’s End: Space-Shuttle Manager Left NASA after Disaster,” Orlando Sentinel, February 1, 2004.

  15.NASA, Report of Columbia Accident Investigation Board, Volume I (NASA, 2003), 177. Available at nasa.gov/columbia/home/CAIB_Vol1.html

  16. Cited in M.S. Smith, NASA’s Space Shuttle Columbia: Synopsis of the Report of the Columbia Accident Investigation Board, September 2, 2003. Available at https://history.nasa.gov/columbia/Troxell/Columbia%20Web%20Site/Documents/Congress/CRS%20Summary%20of%20CAIB%20Report.pdf

  17. NASA, Assessment and Plan for Organizational Culture Change at NASA (NASA, March 15, 2004), Appendix A. Available at http://www.spaceref.com/news/viewsr.html?pid=12540

  18. NASA, Assessment, 33.

  19. See nytimes.com/2005/04/04/politics/some-at-nasa-say-its-culture-is-changing-but-others-say-problems.html

  20. See nytimes.com/1964/03/27/archives/37-who-saw-murder-didnt-call-the-police-apathy-at-stabbing-of.html

  Chapter 7: In Search of Authentic Leaders

  1. Some historians claim that, in the final stages of the war, desperate French politicians and military seriously considered using nuclear weapons.

  2. H.R. McMaster, Dereliction of Duty: Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies That Led to Vietnam (Harper Perennial, 1998), 125.

  3. McMaster, Dereliction of Duty, 26.

  4. Cited in www.nsa.gov/news-features/declassified-documents/gulf-of-tonkin/articles/assets/files/release-2/rel2_gulf_tonkin_incident_desoto.pdf (page 49).

  5. Sharp, speaking in Morris, The Fog of War.

  6. President Johnson, calling McNamara at 11 pm, shouted into the phone: “Bob, I am exposed here! I have got to make my speech right now!” (McMaster, Dereliction of Duty, 132).

  7. See presidency.ucsb.edu/ws/index.php?pid=27126

  8. In Morris, The Fog of War.

  9. R.S. McNamara, In Retrospect: The Tragedy and Lessons of Vietnam (Vintage Books, 1996), 96.

  10. Cited in D. Stahel, Operation Barbarossa and Germany’s Defeat in the East, 38.

  11. When word of the Allies’ victory reached Winston Churchill, he uttered the memorable words, “Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end, but it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.”

  12. C.G. von Clausewitz, On War (Princeton University Press, 1976), 627–628.

  13. It is worth recalling, though, that the geopolitical situation was far more complex at the time. According to some historians (e.g., Viktor Suvorov and Igor Bunich), Stalin had been preparing an attack on Germany for months; it was supposed to begin in mid-1941. The Nazis themselves stated in their propaganda that Operation Barbarossa was intended to stop the Soviets from invading Western Europe, which in turn was regarded as an invention of the Nazi propaganda machine. In this light—although the thesis is both controversial and questionable—the decision to attack the USSR could be viewed as an act by which Hitler saved Germany from the threat of invasion.

  14. See 6sigma.us/six-sigma-articles/six-sigma-certification-levels-explained

  15. The transformation is described brilliantly by Bryce G. Hoffman in American Icon: Alan Mulally and the Fight to Save Ford Motor Company (Crown Publishing Group, 2012).

  16. Pentiti also translates into English as “turncoats”—interesting, don’t you think?

  17. The rules were brilliantly extracted from the letters by Clare Longrigg. See theguardian.com/world/2008/apr/09/internationalcrime.italy

  18. See H. Bruch and S. Ghoshal, “Beware the Busy Manager,” Harvard Business Review, February 2002. Available at https://hbr.org/2002/02/beware-the-busy-manager

  19. Research shows that younger employees—Millennials, Generation Z—react even more strongly to micromanagement, quickly losing their sense of purpose and, consequently, t
heir sense of engagement. See, for example, theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/careers/management/guilty-of-micromanaging-stop-before-its-too-late/article38092554

  Chapter 8: My Favorite Enemy

  1. Questions and data from D. Ariely, Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions (HarperCollins, 2009).

  2. This is in no way an attempt to justify infidelity!

  3. Serge Stoléru, Jérôme Redouté, Marie-Claude Gregoire, and Jean-François Pujol, “Brain Processing of Visual Sexual Stimuli in Human Males,” Human Brain Mapping, 11(3), November 2000.

  4. Please forgive me—the sentence in bold was a shameless piece of manipulation on my part. In no way do I consider you unable to make good decisions. After all, you chose to buy my book... and that was a good decision!

  5. See tmz.com/2014/04/26/donald-sterling-clippers-owner-black-people-racist-audio-magic-johnson

  6. Sterling was severely punished. The commissioner of the NBA, Adam Silver, gave the Los Angeles team’s owner the severest possible punishment—a lifetime ban, to which he added a $2.5 million fine and appealed to the NBA Board of Governors to force Sterling to sell his shares in the Clippers. Sterling apologized for his words in an interview on May 12, 2014, on CNN, and three weeks later announced he was selling the team. On August 12, 2014, it was bought by Steve Ballmer, a former CEO of Microsoft.

  7. The court had no doubts: in November 2017, Oscar Pistorius was sentenced to thirteen years and five months imprisonment.

  8. Mel Gibson, cited in D. Eagleman, Incognito: The Secret Lives of the Brain (Vintage, 2012), 101.

  9. Eagleman, Incognito, 102.

  10. To get the fullest picture, to Kahneman’s proposal, I would add our instincts and the operation of the parasympathetic nervous system, which in a sense constitutes System 0. System 0 lies beyond our control, as it governs our body’s fundamental functions, such as heartbeat; obviously, we can’t use System 1 or 2 to “decide” to switch these functions off.