Labyrinth- the Art of Decision-Making
Page 30
11. Burma, with a population of 55,123,814, is generally referred to these days as Myanmar. See, for example, news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/7013943.stm for more on its name.
12. The creator of this simple, surprising experiment is David Eagleman.
13. And anyway, everyone knows there’s nothing better than a Tuscan bottle of Brunello di Montalcino from a good producer! Just a small attempt on my part at instilling in you a non-threatening, but extremely pleasurable heuristic...
Chapter 9: Peering through the Looking Glass
1. There was one further prediction by the RAND Corporation: according to the experts, by 2070 we are expected to make contact with extraterrestrial beings.
2. Some experts forecast there would be 300 billion networked devices by 2022.
3. McKinsey Global Institute, “The Internet of Things: Mapping the Value Beyond the Hype” (McKinsey & Company, 2015). See mckinsey.com/~/media/McKinsey/Business%20Functions/McKinsey%20Digital/Our%20insights/The%20internet%20of%20things%20the%20value%20of%20digitizing %20the%20physical%20world/The-Internet-of-things-Mapping-the-value-beyond-the-hype.ashx
4. Various sources give various dates, but typically Baby Boomers are regarded as those born during the postwar demographic peak, which ended in the middle of the 1960s.
5. In the case of Generation X, there is similar confusion over the dates; some researchers give the end date as 1982, others as 1984.
6. It will be even more interesting when Generation Z, born around 1995–2012, starts turning up in the workplace. The successors to the Millennials, these are young people for whom a world without social media has never existed.
7. D. Tapscott, Grown Up Digital (McGraw-Hill, 2009), 19–20.
8. Tapscott, Grown Up Digital, 19–20.
9. Tapscott, Grown Up Digital, 19–20.
10. M. Bulgakov, The Master and Margarita (Penguin Books, 1997), 293–295.
Epilogue
1. The United States Air Force Fighter Weapons School actually exists, although since 2005 it has been named the United States Air Force Warfare Center. Interestingly, to this day, there’s a $5 fine for any employee who mentions the film Top Gun while on base.
2. Tony Scott [director], Crimson Tide (USA, 1995).
3. Scott, Crimson Tide.
4. The film doesn’t answer the question of which officer was right one way or the other—Captain Ramsey, blindly putting his faith in procedure (the last complete order), or his subordinate, who, in the light of the interrupted, incomplete replacement directive tries to initiate an inquiry approach and verify the information. When the two sailors ultimately stand before an investigative commission, its head, Admiral Anderson, concludes, “You were both right, and you were also both wrong.”
5. Several months after these events, Stanislav Petrov left the military; he spent the rest of his life in the town of Fryazino, near Moscow, where he died on May 19, 2017. Sadly, he never received the fame and recognition his decision deserved. In 2004, he received the World Citizens Foundation award of a meager $1,000 (you read it right—it’s not something the editor missed). For anyone interested in learning more, I recommend the excellent Polish documentary film The Red Button, directed by Mirosław Grubek and the late Ewa Pięta.
6. There was a serious risk of exceeding the uninterrupted working time permitted by the regulations, which, in the event of further delay, would mean compulsory rest for the crew, who would have had to remain on the island for one more day.
7. See ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Pages/AAR7907.aspx
8. See ntsb.gov/investigations/AccidentReports/Pages/AAR7907.aspx
9. See https://yarchive.net/air/airliners/dc10_sioux_city.html
10. An example of this is the less than obvious consequences of the increased checks on passengers at airports following the attacks of September 11, 2001. The longer checks and baggage restrictions have meant that many passengers have given up flying and turned to the far more dangerous form of transport that is the automobile (especially on shorter trips). This has led to an increase in accidents: three economists from Cornell University have estimated that in the United States alone the increase in road accident victims that can be ascribed to this trend is over five hundred people annually.
11. See https://www.nato.int/docu/speech/2002/s020606g.htm
12. Slovenian philosopher Slavoj Žižek added a category to the three listed by Donald Rumsfeld, one that quite naturally suggests itself. He estimated that serious danger lurks in “unknown knowns,” or unarguable facts that we deny, especially when they run counter to our publicly stated values.
Bibliography and Further Reading
Books
Ariely, Dan. Predictably Irrational: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions. HarperCollins, 2009.
———. The Upside of Irrationality: The Unexpected Benefits of Defying Logic at Work and at Home. HarperCollins, 2010.
Boukreev, Anatoli, and G. Weston DeWalt. The Climb: Tragic Ambitions on Everest. St. Martin’s Press, 1997.
Breashears, David. High Exposure: An Enduring Passion for Everest and Unforgiving Places. Simon & Schuster, 1999.
Brynjolfsson, Erik, and Andrew McAfee. The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies. W.W. Norton & Company, 2014.
Bulgakov, Mikhail. The Master and Margarita. Penguin Books, 1997.
Bullock, Alan. Hitler: A Study in Tyranny. Harper Perennial, 1991.
Carr, Nicholas. The Shallows: What the Internet Is Doing to Our Brains. W.W. Norton & Company, 2010.
Christian, Brian, and Tom Griffiths. Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions. Henry Holt & Company, 2016.
Clark, Alan. Barbarossa. William Morrow Paperbacks, 1985.
Collins, Jim. How The Mighty Fall: And Why Some Companies Never Give In. HarperCollins, 2009.
Damásio, António R. Descartes’ Error: Emotion, Reason and the Human Brain. Penguin Books, 2005.
Dickie, John. Cosa Nostra: A History of the Sicilian Mafia. Hodder & Stoughton, 2004.
Diehl, Alan. Air Safety Investigators: Using Science to Save Lives—One Crash at a Time. Xlibris Corporation, 2013.
Eagleman, David. Incognito: The Secret Lives of the Brain. Vintage Books, 2012.
Evans, Dylan. Risk Intelligence: How to Live with Uncertainty. Atlantic Books, 2013.
Evans, Philip, and Thomas S. Wurster. Blown to Bits: How the New Economics of Information Transforms Strategy. Harvard Business Review Press, 1999.
Fall, Bernard B. Hell in a Very Small Place: The Siege of Dien Bien Phu. Da Capo Press, 2002.
Ford, Martin. Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future. Basic Books, 2015.
Frankel, Max. High Noon in the Cold War: Kennedy, Khrushchev, and the Cuban Missile Crisis. Presidio Press, 2004.
Fukuyama, Francis. Our Posthuman Future: Consequences of the Biotechnology Revolution. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2002.
Gazzaniga, Michael S. Who’s in Charge? Free Will and the Science of the Brain. Ecco, 2011.
Gerrig, Richard J., and Philip G. Zimbardo. Psychology and Life. Pearson, 2010.
Gladwell, Malcolm. Blink: The Power of Thinking without Thinking. Back Bay Books, 2005.
Goldsmith, Marshall. Triggers: Creating Behavior That Lasts—Becoming the Person You Want to Be. Crown Business, 2015.
———. What Got You Here Won’t Get You There: How Successful People Become Even More Successful. Hyperion Books, 2007.
Goleman, Daniel. Emotional Intelligence: Why It Can Matter More Than IQ. Bantam Books, 1996.
Hackman, J. Richard. Leading Teams: Setting the Stage for Great Performances. Harvard Business School Publishing Corporation, 2002.
Harari, Yuval Noah. Homo Deus: A Brief History of Tomorrow. Harvill Secker, 2015.
Heifetz, Aviad. G
ame Theory: Interactive Strategies in Economics and Management. Cambridge University Press, 2012.
Herring, George C. America’s Longest War: The United States and Vietnam, 1950–1975. McGraw-Hill, 2001.
Hoffman, Bryce G. American Icon: Alan Mulally and the Fight to Save Ford Motor Company. Crown Publishing Group, 2012.
Hofstede, Geert, Geert Jan Hofstede, and Michael Minkov. Cultures and Organizations: Software of the Mind. McGraw-Hill Professional, 2010.
Howe, Jeff. Crowdsourcing: Why the Power of the Crowd Is Driving the Future of Business. Three Rivers Press, 2009.
Hubbard, Douglas W. The Failure of Risk Management: Why It’s Broken and How to Fix It. John Wiley & Sons, 2009.
Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking, Fast and Slow. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, 2011.
Karnow, Stanley. Vietnam: A History. Penguin Books, 1997.
Kochanski, Halik. The Eagle Unbowed: Poland and the Poles in the Second World War. Harvard University Press, 2012.
Krakauer, Jon. Into Thin Air: A Personal Account of the Everest Disaster. Mayfly, 1998.
Kranz, Gene. Failure Is Not an Option: Mission Control from Mercury to Apollo 13 and Beyond. Simon & Schuster, 2000.
Kurzweil, Ray. The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology. Penguin Books, 2005.
Lee, Edward Ashford. Plato and the Nerd: The Creative Partnership of Humans and Technology. MIT Press, 2017.
LeGault, Michael R. Think! Why Crucial Decisions Can’t Be Made in the Blink of an Eye. Threshold Editions, 2006.
Lehrer, Jonah. How We Decide. Mariner Books, 2010.
Levitt, Steven D., and Stephen J. Dubner. Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything. William Morrow, 2005.
———. Think Like a Freak. Allen Lane, 2014.
Lindstrom, Martin. Brand Sense. Sensory Secrets behind The Stuff We Buy. Free Press, 2005.
Longrigg, Clare. Boss of Bosses: How Bernardo Provenzano Saved the Mafia. John Murray, 2008.
Lowenstein, Roger. When Genius Failed: The Rise and Fall of Long-Term Capital Management. Random House, 2001.
McClelland, David. Human Motivation. Cambridge University Press, 1973.
McMaster, H.R. Dereliction of Duty: Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara, the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and the Lies That Led to Vietnam. Harper Perennial, 1998.
McNamara, Robert S. In Retrospect: The Tragedy and Lessons of Vietnam. Vintage Books, 1996.
Nadella, Satya, Greg Shaw, and Jill Tracie Nichols. Hit Refresh: The Quest to Rediscover Microsoft’s Soul and Imagine a Better Future for Everyone. Harper Business, 2017.
Plous, Scott. The Psychology of Judgement and Decision Making. McGraw-Hill, 1993.
Ratcliffe, Graham. A Day to Die For. Mainstream Publishing, 2011.
Rollins, Thomas, and Darryl Robert. Work Culture, Organizational Performance and Business Success: Measurement and Management. Quorum Books, 1998.
Schein, Edgar H. Organizational Culture and Leadership. Jossey-Bass, 2004.
Stahel, David. Operation Barbarossa and Germany’s Defeat in the East. Cambridge University Press, 2009.
———. Operation Typhoon. Hitler’s March on Moscow. Cambridge University Press, 2013.
Suworow, Wiktor. Icebreaker: Who Started the Second World War? Hamish Hamilton, 1990.
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. Random House, 2014.
———. Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. Random House, 2010.
Tapscott, Don. Growing Up Digital: The Rise of the Net Generation. McGraw-Hill, 1998.
———. Grown Up Digital: How the Net Generation Is Changing Your World. McGraw-Hill, 2009.
Toffler, Alvin. The Third Wave. Bantam Books, 1980.
Trompenaars, Fons, and Charles Hampden-Turner. Riding the Waves of Culture: Understanding Cultural Diversity in Business. Nicholas Brealey Publishing, 1997.
Vaughan, Diane. The Challenger Launch Decision. University of Chicago Press, 1996.
Weathers, Beck, with Stephen G. Michaud. Left for Dead: My Journey Home from Everest. Dell Publishing, 2001.
Articles and Blog Posts
AFP. “Jean-Marie Messier, l’homme qui se croyait ‘maître du monde.’” Le Point, May 29, 2010. Available at lepoint.fr/bourse/jean-marie-messier-l-homme-qui-se-croyait-maitre-du-monde-dossier-portrait-29-05-2010-460652_81.php
Aksenov, Pavel. “Stanislav Petrov: The Man Who May Have Saved the World.” BBC News, September 26, 2013. Available at bbc.com/news/world-europe-24280831
Barrionuevo, Alexei. “Enron Chiefs Guilty of Fraud and Conspiracy.” New York Times, May 25, 2006. Available at nytimes.com/2006/05/25/business/25cnd-enron.html
Barton, Christine, Jeff Fromm, and Chris Egan. “The Millennial Consumer: Debunking Stereotypes.” Boston Consulting Group, 2012. Available at https://www.bcg.com/documents/file103894.pdf
BBC News. “Harvey Weinstein Timeline: How the Scandal Unfolded.” May 25, 2018. Available at bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-41594672
———. “Nokia’s Mobile Chief Anssi Vanjoki Steps Down.” September 13, 2010. Available at bbc.co.uk/news/technology-11281971
Berman, Alison E. “The Technologies We’ll Have Our Eyes on in 2018.” SingularityHub. December 30, 2017. Available at singularityhub.com/2017/12/30/the-technologies-well-have-our-eyes-on-in-2018
Biotechnologia. “Helicobacter pylori—odkrycie dzięki poświęceniu.” September 10, 2013. Available at biotechnologia.pl/biotechnologia/helicobacter-pylori-odkrycie-dzieki-poswieceniu,12852 [Polish only].
Blalock, Garrick, Vrinda Kadiyali, and Daniel H. Simon. “The Impact of Post–9/11 Airport Security Measures on the Demand for Air Travel.” Cornell University, April 30, 2007. Available at blalock.dyson.cornell.edu/wp/JLE_6301.pdf
Blank, Steve. “Why Visionary CEOs Never Have Visionary Successors.” Harvard Business Review, October 20, 2016. Available at hbr.org/2016 /10/why-visionary-ceos-never-have-visionary-successors
Bloomberg. “Steve Ballmer’s Six Big Misses at Microsoft.” August 26, 2013. Available at economictimes.indiatimes.com/tech/software/steve-ballmers-six-big-misses-at-microsoft/articleshow/22056511.cms
Boudette, Neal E., and Jeff Bennett. “Pigment Shortage Hits Auto Makers.” Wall Street Journal, March 26, 2011. Available at wsj.com/articles/SB10001424052748703696704576222990521120106
Byrne, John A. “How Jack Welch Runs GE.” Businessweek, June 8, 1998.
Cabbage, Michael. “Still Haunted by Columbia’s End: Space-Shuttle Manager left NASA after Disaster.” Orlando Sentinel, February 1, 2004.
Campbell, Andrew, Jo Whitehead, and Sydney Finkelstein. “Why Good Leaders Make Bad Decisions.” Harvard Business Review. February 2009. Available at hbr.org/2009/02/why-good-leaders-make-bad-decisions
Cave, Andrew. “Former Microsoft CEO Steve Ballmer’s Biggest Regret.” Forbes, March 4, 2014. Available at forbes.com/sites/andrewcave/2014/03/04/former-microsoft-ceo-steve-ballmer-my-biggest-regret/#6ee109f91603
Chandler, David L. “‘Kitchen Physics’ Haunts NASA Inquiry.” New Scientist, June 21, 2003. Available at newscientist.com/article/mg17824001-100-kitchen-physics-haunts-nasa-inquiry
Collins, Jim. “How the Mighty Fall: A Primer on the Warning Signs.” Businessweek, May 2009. Available at jimcollins.com/books/how-the-mighty-fall.html
Cox, Josie. “Weinstein Company Files for Bankruptcy after Sexual Harassment Scandal.” Independent, February 26, 2018. Available at independent.co.uk/news/business/news/weinstein-company-bankrupt-file-film-sexual-harassment-harvey-women-producer-a8228591.html
Craig, William. “5 Qualities an Exponential Leader Must Embody.” Forbes, May 22, 2018. Available at forbes.com/sites/williamcraig/2018/05/22/5-qualities-an-exponential-leader-must-embody/#5fc7a53e1dce
Curtis, Sophie. “How British Satellite Company Inmarsat Tracked Down MH3
70.” Telegraph, May 25, 2014. Available at telegraph.co.uk/technology/news/10719304/How-British-satellite-company-Inmarsat-tracked-down-MH370.html
Czerwińska, Anna, Bogdan Jankowski, Michał Kochańczyk, Roman Mazik, and Piotr Pustelnik. Raport Zespołu Wypadkowego Broad Peak, August 2013. Available at pza.org.pl/download/2117948.pdf [Polish only].
Davenport, Thomas H. Analytics 3.0. Harvard Business Review, May 2013. Available at hbr.org/2013/12/analytics-30
Der Spiegel. “October Launch Scrapped: Berlin Airport Opening Delayed Yet Again.” January 7, 2013. Available at spiegel.de/international/germany/opening-of-berlin-airport-delayed-again-due-to-technical-problems-a-876103.html
Diamandis, Peter H. “Exponential Growth Will Transform Humanity in the Next 30 Years.” SingularityHub, December 21, 2016. Available at singularityhub.com/2016/12/21/exponential-growth-will-transform-humanity-in-the-next-30-years
———. “4 Billion New Minds Online: The Coming Era of Connectivity.” SingularityHub, July 27, 2018. Available at singularityhub.com/2018/07/27/4-billion-new-minds-online-the-coming-era-of-connectivity
———. “Ray Kurzweil’s Mind-Boggling Predictions for the Next 25 Years.” Singu-larityHub, January 26, 2015. Available at singularityhub.com/2015/01/26/ray-kurzweils-mind-boggling-predictions-for-the-next-25-years
Dickey, Beth. “Culture Crash.” Government Executive, April 1, 2004. Available at govexec.com/magazine/magazine-news-and-analysis/2004/04/culture-crash/16417
Dinerman, Taylor. “Return to Flight: Has NASA Changed Enough?” Space Review, June 11, 2005. Available at thespacereview.com/article/406/1
Ericson, Paul. “Is Kodak’s Epic Decline the Fault of Its Leaders?” Rochester Business Journal, February 3, 2012. Available at rbj.net/2012/02/10/is-kodaks-epic-decline-the-fault-of-its-leaders
Eurocontrol. “Ash-Cloud of April and May 2010: Impact on Air Traffic” [report]. Eurocontrol, June 28, 2010. Available at eurocontrol.int/sites/default/files/content/documents/official-documents/facts-and-figures/statfor/ash-impact-air-traffic-2010.pdf