The Pentagon's New Map

by Thomas P. M. Barnett

  200 Big increases in income . . . other, less material factors kick in.

  Survey data presented by Don Peck and Ross Douthat, “Does Money Buy Happiness?” The Atlantic Monthly, January-February 2003, pp. 42-43.

  201 As Fareed Zakaria has noted . . . no such state has ever collapsed.

  Updating (by adjusting for inflation) the pioneering work by political scientists Adam Przeworski and Fernando Limongi, Zakaria summarizes their arguments in his Future of Freedom, pp. 69-70. For the original article, see Przeworski and Limongi, “Modernization: Theories and Facts,” World Politics(January 1997), pp. 155-83.

  201 The same will be true . . . for oil in coming years quite dramatically.

  According to the Energy Information Agency’s 2003 International Energy Outlook, oil demand among developing economies will come close to doubling between 2001 and 2025, or from 27.9 million barrels per day to 50.7, while global oil demand will rise just over 50 percent.

  202 As DOE warns . . . plans may prove feasible and others not.”

  Quoted from the chapter on “Electricity” in the 2003 International Energy Outlook. A 2003 report from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) estimates that the world as a whole will need to make $16 trillion worth of investments by 2030 to maintain and expand its energy infrastructure as global demand for energy grows. OECD estimates that 60 percent of those investments will focus on electricity. For details, see the International Energy Agency’s World Energy Investment Outlook—2003, found online at www.worldenergyoutlook.org/weo/pubs/gio2003.asp.

  202 For example, while official developmental aid . . . four to one.

  Data drawn from the UN Conference on Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) World Investment Report (1999 and 2002 editions), and from OECD databases found online at www.oecd.org. OECD aid flows to developing economies at the end of the Cold War averaged in the $55 billion to $60 billion range, while global FDI to emerging markets stood in the $25 billion to $35 billion range. At the turn of the century, FDI flows topped $200 billion, while ODA had decreased slightly to the range of $50 billion to $55 billion.

  203 Not surprisingly, Singapore . . . as a percentage of GDP in the world.

  For example, in 2000, Singapore’s inward stock of FDI as a percentage of GDP stood at 104 percent, compared with a global average of 20 percent. Its outward stock percentage was also outsized at 58 percent, compared with the global average of 20 percent. Data drawn from UNCTAD’s World Investment Report, 2002.

  203 “Right now we’re just pushing concepts into rules.”

  Andreas Kluth, “In Praise of Rules: A Survey of Asian Business,” The Economist, 7 April 2001, p. 1.

  203 The country came to a standstill . . . less well off in the process.

  According to a Heritage Foundation report, civil unrest following the disputed December 2001 presidential election “virtually froze economic activity in Madagascar’s capital city of Antananarivo for the first half of 2002.” As the IMF later noted, the political crisis “entailed substantial economic costs,” but that once foreign investor confidence was restored, the future outlook brightened considerably. For more details on this story, see the Heritage Foundation’s entry for Madagascar in its online 2003 Index of Economic Freedom, found online at www.heritage.org/research/features/index/2003/index.html; and the International Monetary Fund’s Public Information Notice No. 03/07 entitled, “IMF Concludes 2002 Article IV Consultation with Madagascar,” found online at www.imf.org/external/np/sec/pn/2003/pn0307.htm.

  204 According to polling expert . . . whether they think it’s succeeding.”

  Quoted in William Schneider, “In War, the Mission Matters,” National Journal, 19 October 2002.

  204 On the eve of the war with Iraq . . . continuing threat to his own people.

  According to a Time/CNN poll three weeks before the war, 83 percent of Americans said “the most compelling reason to disarm Hussein is that he has wantonly killed his own citizens.” It was the top reason cited, with second place (at 72 percent) going to the cause of “eliminating weapons of mass destruction.” Cited in Jim Hoagland, “Clarity: The Best Weapon,” Washington Post, 1 June 2003.

  205 Osama bin Laden understood this connection . . . and the Pentagon for his targets.

  I first explored this concept in Thomas P. M. Barnett, “Globalization Gets Tested,” Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, October 2001, p. 57.

  THE FLOW OF PEOPLE, OR HOW I LEARNED TO STOP WORRYING AND LOVE THE POPULATION BOMB

  206 The UN calculates PSRs by national populations.

  For details, see the UN Population Division’s Populating Ageing 2002 “wall chart,” found online at www.un.org/population/publications.

  206 My wife, Vonne, and I are . . . poorer, interior provinces of China.

  Not surprisingly, the United States adopts more foreign-born children than the rest of the world combined. For details, see Jeff D. Opdyke, “Adoption’s New Geography: Changes in Global Rules Make Process Even Tougher, Costlier; Bolivia, Brazil May Open Up,” Wall Street Journal, 14 October 2003.

  208 Right now, the best “medium” . . . nine billion by the year 2050.

  The population projection data presented here, unless otherwise specified, can be found in the UN Population Division’s World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (26 February 2003), found online at www.un.org/esa/population/publications. See also the division’s World Population 2002 “wall chart” for details.

  209 The Census Bureau predicts . . . from Central and South America.

  Jennifer Cheeseman Day, “National Population Projections,” U.S. Census Bureau, found online at www.census.gov/population/www/pop-profile/natproj.html.

  210 Because we’re a relatively young nation . . . their peaks almost a decade ago.

  All replacement migration data are culled from the UN Population Division’s Replacement Migration: Is It a Solution to Declining and Ageing Population? (March 2000), found online at www.un.org/esa/population/publications/migration/migration.htm.

  212 Instead of paying more . . . service outside of their day jobs.

  Mike Mills, “In the Modem World, White-Collar Jobs Go Overseas,” Washington Post, 17 September 1996.

  212 It’s not just the back office-type . . . Nishara working in Bangalore.

  Mark Landler, “Hi, I’m in Bangalore (But I Dare Not Tell),” Washington Post, 21 March 2001.

  212 It is often said that Indian . . . write half the world’s software.

  According to Gartner, India now accounts for 60 percent of the offshore information-technology services market, as cited by Reuters, “Linux, Microsoft Face Off in India,” 11 August 2003, found online at news.com.com/2100-1016_3-5062158.html.

  212 Factor in the multiplier effect . . . their domestic market demand.

  This multiplier effect comes from Susan Martin of Georgetown University, as cited in “Making the Most of an Exodus,” The Economist, 23 February 2002, p. 42.

  212 The rest are rich Gulf states . . . the most Core-like states in the Gap.

  David Diamond, “One Nation, Overseas,” Wired, June 2002, p. 143.

  213 The difference in wage-earning . . . nursing shortage in the Philippines.

  Cris Prystay, “U.S. Solution Is Philippine Dilemma: As Recruiters Snap Up More Nurses, Hospitals in Manila Are Scrambling,” Wall Street Journal, 18 July 2002; and Saritha Rai, “Indian Nurses Sought to Staff U.S. Hospitals: Exams Cover Medicine and U.S. Culture,” New York Times, 10 February 2003.

  213 As the Philippines’ secretary of labor . . . they’ll come to us.”

  Wayne Arnold, “The Postwar Invasion of Iraq: Philippines Likely to Supply Many Workers to Rebuild,” New York Times, 9 April 2003.

  213 Wired magazine has described . . . so far-flung it boggles the mind.”

  Diamond, “One Nation, Overseas,” pp. 140, 142.

  213 Latin American workers toiling . . . foreign aid from the Core.

  “Making the Most of an Ex
odus,” The Economist, 23 February 2002, p. 41.

  213 Conversely, any restrictions placed . . . can ever hope to achieve.

  For details of new antiterrorist rules that threaten the ability of immigrants to send remittances out of the United States, see Susan Sachs, “Immigrants Facing Strict New Controls on Cash Sent Home,” New York Times, 12 November 2002.

  THE FLOW OF ENERGY, OR WHOSE BLOOD FOR WHOSE OIL?

  216 As Nicholas Kristof . . . “What did you do during the African Holocaust?”

  Nicholas D. Kristof, “What Did You Do During the African Holocaust?” New York Times, 27 May 2003.

  216 According to Scott Atran . . . you are more likely to back a radical policy.”

  Don Van Natta, “The Terror Industry Finds Its Ultimate Weapon,” New York Times, 24 August 2003.

  218 Worse still, eight of the largest eleven . . . economic rule sets is not occurring.

  Charlene Barshefsky, “The Middle East Belongs in the World Economy,” New York Times, 22 February 2003.

  218 The value of U.S. imports . . . from the entire Arab League.

  Barshefsky, “Middle East Belongs.”

  218 It is estimated that Muslim countries . . . trillion dollars in personal savings.

  Phillip Day and S. Jayasankaran, “Learning Islamic Finance: Banks Consult Muslim Experts in Bid to Tap Growing Market,” Wall Street Journal, 12 March 2003.

  218 After all, Muslims long ago . . . reclassify interest payments as “rent.”

  CNN, “Financing Alternatives Devised for Muslim Home Buyers,” CNN.com, 2 August 2003, found online at www.cnn.com/2003/US/Northeast/08/02/muslim.mortgages.ap/.

  219 Strict Muslim scholars . . . debt acceptable to Islamic religious law.

  Day and Jayasankaran, “Islamic Finance.”

  219 As Fareed Zakaria . . . institutions that generate national wealth.”

  Zakaria, Future of Freedom, p. 75.

  219 In 2001 the planet burned . . . 40 percent of that total was supplied by oil.

  All data presented here is culled from the Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2003, found online at www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html.

  221 Six OPEC members located . . . excess productive capacity in the system.

  “Conventional” oil reserves basically refers to readily accessible or fluid oil, versus oil trapped in shale rock or tar sand, which Canada possesses in abundance. For details, see the Department of Energy’s “Persian Gulf Oil and Gas Exports Fact Sheet” (April 2003), found online at www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/pgulf.html.

  221 As one DOE security expert once told me . . . down on the other end, too.”

  I attribute that remark to James Caverly, now at the Department of Homeland Security.

  223 I mean, we’re right on the verge of the hydrogen age!

  For a well-balanced look at the challenge of moving toward a fuel-cell auto fleet, see Jeffrey Ball, “Hydrogen Fuel May Be Clean, but Getting It Here Looks Messy,” Wall Street Journal, 7 March 2003.

  223 I want fuel cells because . . . and that’s got to be good for America!

  Frank Swoboda, “Engines of Change: GM’s Work on Fuel-Cell Cars Could Cause Major Design Shift,” Washington Post, 8 January 2002.

  THE FLOW OF MONEY, OR WHY WE WON’T BE GOING TO WAR WITH CHINA

  226 The Defense Department may . . . deep into planning the next Cold War.

  For a good review of this phenomenon, see Thomas E. Ricks, “For Pentagon, Asia Moving to Forefront,” Washington Post, 26 May 2000.

  226 Every Pentagon review was saying . . . counter China’s military power.

  For a good example, see Michael R. Gordon, “Pentagon Review Puts Emphasis on Long-Range Arms in Pacific,” New York Times, 17 May 2001.

  228 In our workshop, participants . . . to at least 40 to 45 percent.

  Thomas P. M. Barnett et al., Foreign Direct Investment: 3 + x(Asia) = Triad Squared?: Decision Event Report II of the NewRuleSets.Project, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, Naval War College, 9 April 2001, found online at www.nwc.navy.mil/newrulesets/FDIreport.htm.

  229 Let’s talk some numbers.

  All data culled or calculated from United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), World Investment Report 2003.

  THE FLOW OF SECURITY, OR HOW AMERICA MUST KEEP GLOBALIZATION IN BALANCE

  232 But when I ascended . . . and gave my usual brief.

  Thomas P. M. Barnett, Alternative Global Futures and Naval Security: A Briefing and Associated Essays Presented at the Indian Navy’s International Fleet Review 2001, Center for Naval Warfare Studies, Naval War College, March 2001; found online at www.nwc.navy.mil/newrulesets/AltGlobalFutures&NavalSecurity.htm.

  233 Contrary to my colleagues’ fears . . . their extremely intelligent counterpoints.

  This exchange became the basis for a later article; see Thomas P. M. Barnett, “India’s 12 Steps to a World-Class Navy,” Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, July 2001, pp. 41-45.

  236 Thomas Friedman . . . and I think he’s absolutely right.

  Thomas L. Friedman, “India, Pakistan and GE,” New York Times, 11 August 2002.

  237 These two officials conducted . . . move beyond the moment of insecurity.

  For details of this story, see Glenn Kessler, “A Defining Moment in Islamabad: U.S.-Brokered ‘Yes’ Pulled India, Pakistan from Brink of War,” Washington Post, 22 June 2002.

  238 But look what happens . . . jumps fourfold, to 66,930 days.

  See Cobble, Gaffney, and Gorenburg, For the Record, “Appendix II: Further Discussion of Days: The Expansion in Combined Service Response Days in the 1990s: What Does It Represent?” As a consultant to the CNA Corporation, I generated the original “cumulative days” data and wrote the first draft of this section.

  239 Of the thirty-seven major conflicts . . . per capita GDP totals of less than $2,936.

  Twenty-one conflicts occurred in one or more countries described as “low-income” ($736 or less) by the World Bank (Afghanistan, Angola, Burundi, Cambodia, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, East Timor, Ethiopia-Eritrea, Georgia, Haiti, Indonesia, Liberia, Mozambique, Myanmar, Pakistan-India, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Sudan, Tajikistan, and Yemen); thirteen involved one or more “lower-mid-income” ($736 to $2,935) states (Algeria, Chechnya/Russia, China-Taiwan, Colombia, El Salvador, Guatemala, Iraq, Kurds/Turkey, Nagorno-Karabakh/Russia, Peru, Peru-Ecuador, Sri Lanka, and the former Yugoslavia). The total list of 37 conflicts (to include Lebanon-Israel, Northern Ireland/United Kingdom, and Chiapas/Mexico) was generated for the author by Henry H. Gaffney, Jr., of the CNA Corporation. The per capita GDP categories are taken from the World Bank’s annual publication, World Development Indicators 2003.

  241 Historically, the global economy has expanded . . . more risks to achieve them.

  Michael Pettis, “Will Globalization Go Bankrupt?,” Foreign Policy, September-October 2001, pp. 52-59.

  241 The Party is also bribing the military . . . search for an enemy worth creating.

  A wonderful example of how little things have changed in the Pentagon comes in the January 2004 Air Force “tabletop war game” in Maxwell Air Force Base, Alabama. The war game was designed to test future “transformational” force options. The “secret” scenario involved, according to a colonel who plotted it, “a near-peer who is not directly agitated by us, or us by them. But there is a third-party action that takes effect that creates movement and forces actions on the side of the near-peer that we eventually have to respond to, by nature of a third party.” The scenario takes place in Asia in 2020. Not knowing the secret myself, I’m going to take a wild guess and say this game focused on China and Taiwan. But that’s just my opinion. For the full coverage, see Elaine M. Grossman, “New Tech vs. Asian Threat Scenario: Air Force War Game Tests Options for Directed Energy, UAVs,” Inside the Pentagon, 15 January 2004, pp. 3-4.

  242 India, as UN diplomat Shashi Tharoor . . . future of the world.”
<
br />   Shashi Tharoor, India: From Midnight to the Millennium (New York: HarperCollins, 1998), p. 3. Tharoor actually quotes British historian E. P. Thompson with this phrase.

  243 So far, human connectivity . . . slowed or been redirected since 9/11.

  For just a few from among numerous stories on this, see Scott Neuman et al., “Already Battered by Terror, Tourism Gets Double Blow,” Wall Street Journal, 8 April 2003; Thomas B. Edsall, “Attacks Alter Politics, Shift Focus of Immigration Debate,” Washington Post, 15 October 2001; Howard Schneider, “Ties Weakened That Bound U.S. to Arab World: Education, Tourism and Trade Hurt by Sept. 11, Mideast Strife,” Washington Post, 8 July 2002; Nurith C. Aizenman and Edward Walsh, “Immigrants Fear Deportation After Registration: Number of Mideast, Muslim Men Expelled Rises Sharply,” Washington Post, 28 July 2003; Keith B. Richburg, “Security Curtain Raised Along EU’s New Eastern Front,” Washington Post, 31 July 2003; Edward Walsh, “Effects of 9/11 Reduce Flow of Refugees to U.S.,” Washington Post, 21 August 2002; and Joel Millman and Carlta Vitzthum, “Changing Tide: Europe Becomes New Destination for Latino Workers: With the U.S. Cracking Down, Jobs and Porous Borders Beckon Across the Atlantic,” Wall Street Journal, 12 September 2003.

  243 Clearly, few informed observers . . . rebuilding/occupation process.

  Neil King, Jr., “Bush Has an Audacious Plan to Rebuild Iraq Within a Year,” Wall Street Journal, 17 March 2003; and David E. Sanger and James Dao, “U.S. Is Completing Plan to Promote a Democratic Iraq: An 18-Month Occupation,” New York Times, 6 January 2003.

  243 This is a full-body transformation . . . the Middle East as a whole.

  Condoleezza Rice, “Transforming the Middle East,” Washington Post, 7 August 2003.

  244 Over the longer run, an East Asian . . . and South Korea’s won.

  For an overview of such speculation regarding global currencies of the future, see Robert L. Bartley, “World Money at the Palazzo Mundell,” Wall Street Journal, 30 June 2003.

  244 The share of total investment . . . share rarely rose above 5 percent.