The Pentagon's New Map

by Thomas P. M. Barnett

  133 In Africa, this is known . . . Taylor being just the latest in a very long line.

  Wil Haygood, “A Big Man Fails Another African Nation,” Washington Post, 13 July 2003; and Tim Weiner, “Ex-Leader Stole $100 Million from Liberia, Records Show,” New York Times, 18 September 2003.

  133 North Korea’s Kim Jong Il . . . down the path toward hereditary succession.

  Peter Carlson, “Sins of the Son: Kim Jong Il’s North Korea Is in Ruins, but Why Should That Spoil His Fun?” Washington Post, 11 May 2003; Steve Levine, “Odd Family Drama in Kazakhstan Dims Democratic Hopes,” Wall Street Journal, 12 September 2002; Susan B. Glasser, “Ailing Azerbaijani’s Son Named Premier: Stage Set for the Handover of Power; Democratic Opposition Denounces Move as ‘Illegal,’ ” Washington Post, 5 August 2003; and Seth Mydans, “Free of Marx, but Now in the Grip of a Dynasty,” New York Times, 15 October 2003.

  133 Historically speaking, countries . . . least connected states in the world.

  For an excellent summary, see Daphne Eviatar, “Striking It Poor: Oil as a Curse,” New York Times, 7 June 2003.

  134 In several sub-Saharan African . . . battles between various rebel factions.

  Paul Collier, “The Market for Civil War,” Foreign Policy, May-June 2003, pp. 38-45.

  134 For example, lacking . . . retard integration into the global economy.

  Ricardo Hausmann, “Prisoners of Geography,” Foreign Policy, January-February 2001, pp. 45-53

  134 It is estimated that . . . porous borders with Argentina, Brazil, and Bolivia.

  Tony Smith, “Contraband Is Big Business in Paraguay,” New York Times, 10 June 2003.

  134 Under normal circumstances . . . loose rule set regarding shipping registries.

  Marc Lifsher, “Landlocked Bolivia Is Making Waves on the High Seas,” Wall Street Journal, 23 October 2002.

  135 States that engage in smuggling . . . addition to selling counterfeit currencies.

  Jay Solomon and Hae Won Choi, “In North Korea, Secret Cash Hoard Props Up Regime: Defectors, Intelligence Sources Say Division 39 Supplies Billions to Kim Jong Il: Ginseng and Counterfeit Bills,” Wall Street Journal, 14 July 2003; and Doug Struck, “Heroin Trail Leads to North Korea,” Washington Post, 12 May 2003.

  135 A recent World Values Survey . . . divorce, abortion, and homosexuality.

  Ronald Inglehart and Pippa Norris, “The True Clash of Civilizations,” Foreign Policy, March-April 2003, pp. 63-70.

  136 The men took over . . . women were struggling to find customers.

  Simon Romero, “Weavers Go Dot-Corn, and Elders Move In,” New York Times, 28 March 2000.

  136 Based on that sort of success . . . a global high-tech hub.

  G. Pascal Zachary, “Searching for a Dial Tone in Africa: Internet Makes Telephone Service Less Expensive and More Reliable,” New York Times, 5 July 2003.

  137 Since Iraq had simply been passed over . . . wireline industry was antiquated.

  Yuki Noguchi, “With War, Satellite Industry Is Born Again,” Washington Post, 17 April 2003.

  137 Based on cell phone penetration . . . out of a total population of twenty million.

  Chip Cummins, “Business Mobilizes for Iraq: Kuwaiti Entrepreneurs Say Millions of Iraqis Will Want Cars, Cellphones, Refrigerators,” Wall Street Journal, 24 March 2003.

  MINDING THE GAP

  138 A colleague of mine at CNA . . . presidential administrations (1977-1991).

  Adam Siegel, The Use of Naval Forces in the Post-War Era: U.S. Navy and U.S. Marine Corps Crisis Response Activity 1946-1989 (Alexandria, Va.: Center for Naval Analyses, 1991).

  139 Competing think tanks . . . service-specific crisis responses.

  Air Staff Historical Office, U.S. Air Force, The United States Air Force and U.S. National Security: A Historical Perspective 1947-1990 (1991); and Special Assistant for Model Validation of the Concepts Analysis Agency, U.S. Army, Force Employment Study (1991).

  139 When I began building this all-service database . . . to the end of the Cold War.

  Thomas P. M. Barnett and Linda D. Lancaster, L.Cdr., USN, Answering the 9-1-1 Call: U.S. Military and Naval Crisis Response Activity, 1977-1991 (Alexandria, Va.: Center for Naval Analyses, 1992).

  143 If America seems to be acting . . . presence in Central and Southwest Asia.

  For an example of this possible pathway, see Jeanne Whalen, “Vying for Dominance in Georgia: U.S.-Russian Frictions Surface Amid Delicate Alliance on Terror,” Wall Street Journal, 8 October 2002.

  146 And that is exactly what I thought . . . Gaffney at the Center for Naval Analyses.

  For details on these trends, see W. Eugene Cobble, H. H. Gaffney, and Dimitry Gorenburg, For the Record: All U.S. Forces’ Responses to Situations, 1970-2000 (Alexandria, Va.: Center for Strategic Studies, June 2003).

  TO LIVE AND DIE IN THE GAP

  155 Hussein’s regime was . . . much less identify the remains.

  Eric Schmitt, “Wolfowitz Visits Mass Graveyards of Hussein’s Victims and Promises Help in Hunting Killers: Allied Investigators Have Discovered 62 Killing Fields,” New York Times, 20 July 2003.

  161 When the philosopher Thomas Hobbes . . . nasty, brutish, and short.”

  Thomas Hobbes, Leviathan, chap. 13, p. 62, in the original edition published in 1651.

  162 In numerous African states, the poverty rates rise as high as 60 to 70 percent.

  Data culled from the 2003 edition of the World Bank’s World Development Indicators.

  162 In contrast . . . close to two-thirds are located within the Core.

  Freedom House’s annual survey is found online at www.freedomhouse.org.

  163 In contrast, nine out of every ten states . . . every four to six years.

  The CIA’s World Factbook is found online at www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook. I am indebted to LCDR Thad J. Dobbert, U.S. Navy, for conducting this research.

  163 However, if we are to look at the 50 states . . . but one (South Africa) lie within the Gap.

  Demographic data culled from the CIA’s World Factbook.

  163 All of the countries in the world . . . thirty-five years old are located in the Core.

  Demographic data culled from the CIA’s World Factbook. Life expectancy inside the Gap averages 61 years (averaging by country totals), and inside the Core 74 years. The global average is 63 years.

  163 It is a general rule . . . by young males under the age of thirty.

  Criminal data supporting this observation, both in terms of single-offender and multiple-offender victimizations, can be culled from the U.S. Department of Justice’s Bureau of Justice Statistics, found online at www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs.

  163 Right now the Middle East . . . rates combined with deaths from AIDS.

  Data culled from U.S. Bureau of the Census and compiled by the National Intelligence Council.

  164 No matter what list of “current conflicts” . . . squarely inside the Gap.

  See the conflict databases posted at www.cidcm.umd.edu, www.globalsecurity.org, and www.fas.org.

  164 Virtually all originate in the Gap . . . actually makes it into the Core.

  Data culled from United Nations databases, found online at www.un.org. I am indebted to CDR Alan L. Boyer for conducting this research.

  164 In the recent long-running war in the Congo . . . recruiting child soldiers.

  Cited in Somini Sengupta, “Innocence of Youth Is Victim of Congo War,” New York Times, 23 June 2003; see also Emily Wax, “Toting AK-47s Instead of Book Bags: Liberia Faces Challenge of Disarming Children,” Washington Post, 25 August 2003.

  165 Of the sixteen current United Nations peacekeeping . . . fall inside the Gap.

  Data culled from United Nations Web site (www.un.org). As of October 2003, the sixteen missions were to Afghanistan, Cyprus, Democratic Republic of Congo, East Timor, Ethiopia-Eritrea, Georgia, India-Pakistan, Iraq-Kuwait, Israel-Egypt, Israel-Syria, Ivory Coast, Kosovo, Lebanon, Liberia, Middle East, Sierra Leone, and Western S
ahara.

  165 Of the eighteen countries . . . from unexploded bombs, all lie within the Gap.

  Data obtained from U.S. Department of State, Humanitarian Demining Program. The countries listed are Afghanistan, Angola, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Cambodia, Chad, Croatia, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Iran, Iraq, Laos, Mozambique, Myanmar, Somalia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Zimbabwe.

  165 Of the three dozen groups . . . 31 operate primarily inside the Gap.

  Information gathered from U.S. State Department’s annual report, Patterns of Global Terrorism 2002, found online at www.state.gov/s/ct/rls/pgtrpt/2002/. The 31 groups are Abu Nidal, Abu Sayyaf Group (Philippines), Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigade (West Bank), Al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya (Egypt), Armed Islamic Group (Algeria), Asbat al-Ansar (Lebanon), Communist Party of Philippines/New People’s Army, Hamas (West Bank), Harakat ul-Mujahidin (Pakistan), Hizballah (Lebanon), Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, Jaish-e-Mohammed (Pakistan), Jemaah Islamiya (Southeast Asia) , Al-Jihad (Egypt), Kahane Chai (Israel), Kurdistan Workers’ Party (Turkey), Lashkar-e-Tayyiba (Pakistan), Lashkar I Jhangvi (Pakistan), Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (Sri Lanka), Mujahedin-eKhalq Organization (Iran), National Liberation Army—Colombia, The Palestine Islamic Jihad, Palestine Liberation Front, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine—General Command, Al-Qaida, Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, Revolutionary People’s Liberation Party/Front (Turkey), the Salafist Group for Call and Combat (Algeria), Sendero Luminoso (Peru), United Self-Defense Forces/Group of Colombia.

  165 Likewise, 19 of the 23 . . . “major drug producers” are found inside the Gap.

  Information gathered from U.S. State Department’s “Fact Sheet: President’s Report on Illicit Drug Producing Countries,” found online at www.usinfo.state.gov/regional/ar/mexico/bushdrug25.htm. The nineteen states are Afghanistan, the Bahamas, Boliva, Colombia, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, Guatemala, Haiti, Jamaica, Laos, Nigeria, Myanmar, Pakistan, Panama, Paraguay, Peru, Thailand, Venezuela, and Vietnam. The four Core states listed are Brazil, China, India, and Mexico.

  165 Not surprisingly, 20 of Harris’s . . . China being the exception.

  John R. Harris, “Redrawing the Pentagon’s New Map,” 9 April 2003, found online at www.virtualtravelog.net/entries/000020.html. The twenty Gap countries listed as “reluctantly connected” include: Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Congo, Egypt, El Salvador, Ghana, Iran, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Morocco, Mozambique, Peru, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, Uzbekistan, Venezuela, Vietnam, and Yemen.

  DIFFERENT WORLDS, DIFFERENT RULE SETS

  170 George W. Bush is making . . . road ahead is both long and challenging.

  For an example of this skepticism regarding the Bush Administration’s proposal for a free-trade area encompassing the Middle East, see Paul Blustein, “Bush’s Trade Carrot Brings High Hopes, Hearty Skepticism,” Washington Post, 10 May 2003.

  176 In many ways, that is the . . . all the way back to the Clinton Administration.

  See Serge Schmemann, “U.S. Links Peacekeeping to Immunity from New Court,” New York Times, 19 June 2002; and Glenn Kessler, “War Crimes Court Fears Not New: U.S. Accused of Giving Up Chance to Ease Clinton Era Concerns,” Washington Post, 2 July 2002.

  176 Over seventy countries have already signed . . . all of them are Gap states.

  The 68 Gap states that have signed the so-called Article 98 Agreements as of October 2003 include Afghanistan, Albania, Antigua and Barbuda, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Bolivia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cambodia, Chad, Colombia, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Dominican Republic, East Timor, Egypt, El Salvador, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, the Gambia, Georgia, Guinea, Honduras, Israel, Ivory Coast, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Liberia, Macedonia, Madagascar, Malawi, Maldives, Marshall Islands, Mauritania, Mauritius, Micronesia, Morocco, Mozambique, Nauru, Nepal, Nicaragua, Nigeria, Pakistan, Palau, Panama, Philippines, Romania, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Singapore, Solomon Islands, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, Thailand, Togo, Tonga, Tunisia, Tuvalu, Uganda, Uzbekistan, and Zambia. The two Core states that have signed are India and Mongolia.

  WHY I HATE THE “ARC OF INSTABILITY”

  180 Now, the reporter who wrote . . . particular plans for permanent bases.”

  Nathan Hodge, “Pentagon Strategist: Central Asia Bases Are Long-Term,” Defense Week, 19 August 2002.

  182 Jaffe went on to say . . . what it buys, and where it puts forces.”

  Greg Jaffe, “Pentagon Prepares to Scatter Soldiers in Remote Corners,” Wall Street Journal, 27 May 2003.

  182 Now, the story caused . . . strategy changes described in the article.

  National Public Radio’s On Point, “The New American Way of War,” airdate 10 June 2003.

  183 In October of 2003, U.S. News . . . the World’s Most Dangerous Places.”

  See the “Special Report” by Mark Mazzetti, “Pax Americana: Dispatched to Distant Outposts, U.S. Forces Confront the Perils of an Unruly World,” U.S. News & World Report, 6 October 2003.

  183 First, the arc concept is old . . . the Horn of Africa up into Afghanistan.

  National Security Adviser Zbigniew Brzezinski is credited with coining the phrase “arc of crisis” to describe the Middle East and South Asia.

  184 So it’s no surprise today . . . looks suspiciously like an encircling strategy.

  As Chu Shulong, a military analyst at Tsinghua University, argues, “These developments give [Chinese hard-liners] stronger evidence to argue that the war in Afghanistan is part of a plot, a strategic ploy, aimed at encircling China.” Quoted in John Pomfret, “China Sees Interests Tied to U.S.: Change Made Clear in Wake of Sept. 11,” Washington Post, 2 February 2002.

  184 When the German daily Die Zeit . . . comes wearing a military outfit.”

  Thomas Assheuer, “Der Babysitter kommt im Kampfanzug,” Die Zeit, 22 May 2003.

  186 Now, I know the Bush Administration . . . Africa being a “bridge too far.”

  Eric Schmitt, “Pentagon Seeking New Access Pacts for Africa Bases,” New York Times, 5 July 2003; and Mike Allen and Bradley Graham, “Bush Emphasizes Humanitarian Role in Liberia,” Washington Post, 7 August 2003.

  187 As Daniel Pipes repeats . . . moderate Islam is the solution.”

  Daniel Pipes and Graham Fuller, “Combating the Ideology of Radical Islam,” Washington Institute for Near East Policy, 10 April 2003.

  188 Since security tends . . . through security at JFK Airport in New York City.

  For an example of this growing concern within the Organization of American States, see Associated Press, “Islands Fear Becoming a Route for Travelers with Terror Plans,” New York Times, 9 January 2003.

  188 This is what gets . . . rebels across its far-flung archipelago.

  Larry Rohter, “Brazil Employs Tools of Spying to Guard Itself,” New York Times, 27 July 2002; Robert Block, “Spreading Influence: In South Africa, Mounting Evidence of al Qaeda Links: Officials Cite Smuggling Cases and a Deadly Bombing; ‘Perfect Place to Regroup,’ ” Wall Street Journal, 10 December 2002; Karen DeYoung, “Powell Says U.S. to Resume Training Indonesia’s Forces,” Washington Post, 3 August 2002.

  188 Other countries where the Pentagon . . . Djibouti, Pakistan, and India.

  For details see Arms Trade Oversight Project, “Changes in U.S. Arms Transfers Policy Since September 11, 2001,” found online at www.clw.org/atop/911_list.html; see also James Hookway and Christopher Cooper, “U.S. to Send 3,000 Troops to Aid Philippines,” Wall Street journal, 21 February 2003; Steven R. Weisman, “U.S. to Sell Military Gear to Algeria to Help It Fight Militants,” New York Times, 10 December 2002; Michael R. Gordon, “Millions for Defense, Barely a Penny for Djibouti,” New York Times, 1 December 2002; and Celia W. Dugger, “Wider Military Ties with India Offer U.S. Diplomatic Leverage,” New York Times, 10 June 2002.

  189 A transnational terrorist organization . . . increasingly—Southeast Asia.

  Douglas Farah,
“Al Qaeda Gold Moved to Sudan,” Washington Post, 3 September 2002; Douglas Farah, “Report Says African Harbored Al Qaeda,” Washington Post, 29 December 2002; Raymond Bonner, “Philippine Camps Are Training Al Qaeda’s Allies, Officials Say,” New York Times, 31 May 2003; Ellen Nkashima, “Terrorists Find Easy Passage into Thailand: Experts Say Lax Border Controls Are Opportunity for Al Qaeda, Regional Militants,” Washington Post, 27 January 2003; Ed Blanche, “Colombia Gun-Running Scandal Links Shady Israelis, Al-Qaeda,” The Daily Star On Line, 13 August 2003, found online at www.dailystar.com.lb/13_08_03/art22.asp; Linda Robinson, “Terror Close to Home: In Oil-Rich Venezuela, a Volatile Leader Befriends Bad Actors from the Mideast, Colombia, and Cuba,” U.S. News & World Report, 6 October 2003; Timothy L. O’Brien, “U.S. Officials Focus on Dubai as Terrorists Financial Center,” New York Times, 5 October 2003; Zachary Abuza, “The Forgotten Front: Southeast Asia Is Now More Important to al Qaeda Than Ever,” Wall Street Journal, 3 October 2003; Timothy L. O’Brien, “U.S. Officials Focus on Dubai as Terrorist Financial Center,” New York Times, 5 October 2003; and Timothy L. O’Brien, “South American Area Is Cited as Haven of Terrorist Training,” New York Times, 7 October 2003.

  Chapter 4. THE CORE AND THE GAP

  THE MILITARY-MARKET LINK

  196 If anything, it had merely resumed . . . the world wake up from history.”

  From the song “Right Here, Right Now,” by Jesus Jones, from the album entitled Doubt (Nettwerk Records, 1991).

  199 Being so Catholic . . . sort of a Ten Commandments for globalization:

  A version of this Decalogue appeared in my “Asia: The Military-Market Link,” Proceedings of the U.S. Naval Institute, January 2002, pp. 53-56.

  200 Our best estimates on coal . . . enough for the next two centuries.

  Data culled from the Department of Energy’s International Energy Outlook, 2003. For a good treatment of what he calls “The Chimera of Resource Scarcity,” see Jerry Taylor, Sustainable Development: A Dubious Solution in Search of a Problem, Cato Institute “Policy Analysis” No. 449 (26 August 2002), pp. 6-14.