The Pentagon's New Map
Page 49
Index
A
Afghanistan, 93-94, 167, 186, 236, 260, 297, 302, 317, 352, 361
Africa, 133-34, 136, 162, 181, 186-87, 229, 265, 351-52, 362, 382-83
AIDS
drugs, patent relief, 265-66
epidemic, 55, 374
Air Force, U.S., 64, 77, 102, 138, 325, 337
Algeria, 188
Al Jazeera, 354
Allies, 119, 158, 178, 238, 314, 334, 336
Al Qaeda, 83, 91, 93-94, 167, 189, 236, 254, 259, 283, 285, 293
Anderson, Jack, 253, 279
Annan, Kofi, 376
Anthrax scare, 264-65
Antiglobalization, 147-48
Arafat, Yasir, 289
Arc of Instability, 168, 179-90
Armitage, Richard, 236-37
Army, Red, 60, 89, 349
Army, U.S., 77, 102, 325
Ashcroft, John, 256, 280
Asia, 2, 141, 203, 218, 220-21, 223, 231, 240, 309, 312, 334, 352, 372-73
Asian Flu (1997-98), 227
Asian miracle, 239
Aspin, Les, 96
Assad, Bashir, 289
Asymmetrical warfare, 89-96, 318
Atran, Scott, 216-17
August coup, 15
Australia, 334
Authoritarian states, 201, 255, 344
Axis of Evil, 283
Azerbaijan, 133
B
Baker, Ted, 65, 73
Balkans, 309-10
Banking, Islamic, 218-19
Barbie (doll), 125
Battlefield preparation, 337
Bayer, 265
Benjamin, Daniel, 43
Berlin Wall, 2, 42
Better life, expectations of, 216-17
Big Bang strategy, 278-94
Big Family, 133
Big Man problem, 133, 305, 314, 331
Big One, 63, 67-68, 70, 72, 98-99, 104, 115, 121, 140, 142, 172, 316
Big picture, 20-22, 367
Big Sticks, 70, 98-99
Bilateral security assistance, 188-89
Bin Laden, Osama, 93-94, 185, 205, 223, 249, 261, 263-64, 266, 288, 297, 354-55
Bio-engineered crops, 374
Birth rates, 208
Blue-water navy, 74, 234, 336
Bolivia, 134-35
“Bolt from the blue” scenario, 110, 121, 149
Bombay, India. See Mumbai
Boot, Max, 105
Botswana, 306
Bottom-up thinkers, 20
Brazil, 31, 188, 330
Brezhnev, Leonid, 38
Brief, 65-79, 81, 191
Britain, 105
“Broken window” approach to crime, 353-54
Bush, George H.W., 81, 157
Bush, George W., 30-31, 102, 288, 318, 354, 364
Bush Administration, 2, 6, 96-97, 101
and 9/11, 156-57
Big Bang strategy in Middle East, 263, 281-94
and China, 108-10, 226
Cold War policy types in, 156-58
political gamesmanship with allies, 158
preemption strategy, 35, 42, 167-79, 243, 261
strategic planning changes, 363-64
and war on terrorism, 142-43
C
Canada, 265, 373
Cannibalizing agent, 260
Cantor Fitzgerald, 46-48, 151, 196-99, 227, 259-60, 278, 280, 304
Capitalism, 200
Carter Administration, 183
Carter Doctrine, 184
Castro, Fidel, 305
Cebrowski, Arthur K., 154, 250-51, 267, 315-16, 327-29, 332-33, 337
Center for International Development and Conflict (University of Maryland), 347
Center for Naval Analyses (CNA), 18-19, 109
Central Africa, 120, 216, 238, 287, 351
Central Asia, 179, 181, 306, 310, 334
Central Command, 42
Chad, 374
Chavez, Hugo, 351
Chief of Naval Operations (CNO), 13
Children, 164, 375
China, 31, 38, 62, 68, 74-75, 93, 100-101, 104-105
baby girl surplus in, 207
as democracy, 129-30
as diplomatic near-peer, 108-10, 169, 224-31, 241-42, 381
energy consumption rate, 201-202
Internet censorship by, 126-27, 165-66
joins Core nations, 124
as main T-bill purchaser, 311-12
Pentagon’s vertical scenarios about, 110-21, 152
protectionism of, 131
P-3 spy plane incident, 282
rise as manufacturing superpower, 239
and SARS, 263, 311
and Taiwan, 62, 90, 101, 241-42, 300, 334, 377
Chinese Communist Party, 241
CIA Factbook, 162
Cipro, 265
Clancy, Tom, 12
The Clash of Civilizations (Huntington), 51, 150
Classified material, 343
Clinton Administration, 3, 78, 96-97, 176
foreign policy of, 167-68, 226
and free trade, 194, 373
push to expand G-7, 376
second term, 102-103
Two-Major Regional Conflicts scenario, 61
Coalition partners, 314
Coast Guard, U.S., 317
Codependent relationships, 222
Cohen, William, 96
Cold War, 29-31, 82, 84, 368
Big One mentality, 115
classic vertical scenario, 117
containment strategy, 19, 171-72
end of, 1-5, 37-38, 304
great-power war during, 272, 274
and Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), 39-41
myths after, 348-49
peace dividend of, 64, 82, 196, 301
postwar horizontal scenario, 118-20
Cold Worriers, 70, 76, 98-99, 101, 103
Colombia, 238, 305, 351-52, 380
Colonialism, 160
Combat, 145
losses, 308
operations, 348
Combatant commanders, 324
Command of the seas, 74, 76
Competition, 86-87
Conflict, 203
Congo, 164
Congress, U.S., 90, 116, 140
Connectivity, 3-4, 82, 125, 165-66, 185, 331
Conservatives, 159-60
Containment, 19, 171-72
Contingency positioning, 144-45
Core-Gap model, 154-55, 159, 166, 183, 229, 288, 303, 368
Core nations, 4, 25-27, 56, 83, 300, 339
colonial legacy of, 160
defining, 125
new states in, 55-58, 124, 240, 374-78
religions in, 187
shrink the Gap strategy, 305-306, 355, 360, 369
Corporate security, 86
Cossey, Jim, 16
Coulter, Ann, 271
Covert operations, 335
Credit, 200
Crisis response, 3-4, 92, 138-54, 313, 348
categories of, 144-45
days of operation, 237-38
Cuba, 305
D
Decision making, 66-67
Defense Act of 1947, 142, 303
Defense Department, 2, 4, 18, 48, 140, 257, 350, 372
budget, 64, 115-16, 141, 325
new ordering principle of, 269-70
Defense spending, 299
Democracy, 127, 129-30, 166, 201, 379
Deng Xiaoping, 38, 68, 129
Depopulation, 207
Deputy Assistant Secretaries of Defense (DASDs), 180-81
Deseret News, 253
Desert One, 42
Deterrence, 170, 174, 261
Die Zeit, 184
Dinosaur effect, 258
Disconnectedness, 49, 52, 57, 107-10, 331, 355-56, 360
along Arc of Instability, 179-90
different rule sets for different worlds, 166-79
living and dying in the Gap, 154-66
mapping globalization’s frontier, 131-37
of Middle
East, 214-24
minding the Gap, 137-54
and vertical thinking, 110-21
Djibouti, 188
Doha Development Round, 131, 265-66, 377
Dollar (U.S.), 244
Domino theory, 91
Donnelly, Thomas, 362
Draft brief, 79, 81
Drug trafficking, 351
E
Early Bird (news service), 180
East Asia, 238
Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), 374
Economist, 203
Eisenhower, Dwight, 58
Empire, defined, 355
Enemy, defined, 119
Energy consumption, 201-202
Energy Department, 200, 202
Energy flows, 214-24, 240-41
eSpeed, 259-60
Esquire, 6, 154-55, 181, 267
Ethnic conflicts, 348-49
Euro, 307
European Union, 87, 229, 309, 363
Evacuation operations, 144
Exporting security, 179, 303-15, 369
F
Failed states, 88, 93, 122
FBI, 268
Fearmongering, 326, 344-45
Feith, Doug, 279
Fertility rates, 208
Flanagan, William “Bud,” 138, 146, 151-52, 197, 199, 226
Flexible Fleet Response, 362-63
Flows, 192
of energy, 214-24, 240-41
of money, 224-31
of people, 206-14, 240
of security, 231-45
Foreign aid, 359, 374
Foreign direct investment (FDI), 202,
228-29, 239, 305-306
Formers, 13
Former socialist bloc, 352
France, 264
Freedom House, 2003 survey, 136-37, 162
Free markets, 127
Free Trade Area of the Americas, 373, 380
Friedman, Thomas, 51, 236, 263
From the Sea, 78, 97-98, 137
“Frontier fort” model, 362
Fuel cells, 223, 380
Functioning Core. See Core nations
Future threats, 24
Future worth creating, 379-83
G
G-20, 376
Gaffney, Henry “Hank,” Jr., 98, 109, 111-12, 118, 120, 148
Gang of Five, 65, 71-73, 77
Gap nations, 4, 26-27, 56, 86, 88, 99, 183, 300, 339
fear of globalization in, 167
labor flow from Core, 212-14
lack of connectivity in, 165-66
lack of freedom in, 162-63
lack of rule sets and investors in, 132-37
life expectancy in, 163-64
mapping frontier of, 131-37
minding, 137-54
poverty in, 161-62
and preemption policy, 167-79
religious fundamentalists in, 187
Seam States around, 188-89, 369
and shrink the Gap strategy, 305-306, 355, 360, 369, 373
violence in, 164-65
Gartska, John, 327
Gatekeepers, 66
Gender issues, 135-36, 361
Germany, 179, 330
Ghana, 136-37, 306
Gingrich, Newt, 374
Ginsberg, Phil, 151-52, 199, 202, 226
Glasnost, 127
Global chaos, 342-50
Global commute, 212-13
Global economy, 229, 238, 241, 255, 335, 347
Globalization, 2-4, 24
Core nations, 4, 25-27, 56, 83
defining, 125
new states in, 55-58, 124
as dominant horizontal scenario in 1990s, 120
first phase of, 27-29, 33, 45, 262
flows, 192
of energy, 214-24, 240-41
of money, 224-31
of people, 206-14, 240
of security, 231-45
fourth phase of, 364, 370
future of, 49-58
Gap nations, 4, 26-27, 56, 99
mapping frontier of, 131-37
minding, 137-54
less violence with rule-set extension, 82-83
military-market link, 193-205
second phase of, 31-32, 206, 230, 309
Ten Commandments for, 199-205
third phase of, 31-33, 35, 223, 230, 240, 244, 309
Global military spending, 348
Global poverty rates, 347
Global Transaction Strategy, 295-98, 369-83
American way of war, 327-39
exporting security, 303-15
need for two militaries, 299-303
System Administrator, 315-27
Global War on Terrorism (GWOT), 25, 62, 104-105, 108, 158, 168, 192, 256, 306, 324, 353, 378
Go-fast event, 273
Gorbachev, Mikhail, 127-28
Great Depression, 32, 34
Great-power war, 82, 245, 272, 274
Group 20-plus, 55, 378
Growth, 200-201
Guest workers, 376
Guyana, 136
H
Haiti, 145, 348
Harris, John R., 165
Hawala networks, 219
Hayes, Bradd, 71, 78, 146
Heredity succession, 133
Hobbes, Thomas, 161, 327
Holocaust, 32
Homeland Security, 256-57, 317, 325, 372
Homer-Dixon, Thomas, 262-63
Hong Kong, 218
Hope without guarantees, 367-83
Horizontal scenarios, 110-21, 262
House of Saud, 185, 289, 381
Hubs, 362-63
Humanitarian assistance, 313
The Hunt for Red October (Clancy), 12
Huntington, Samuel P., 51, 150
Hussein, Saddam, 42-43, 93, 120, 137, 155, 173, 194, 204, 277, 286-87
I
Identity theft, 27
Ignatius, David, 105
Illegal activities, 134
Immigration, 206-14, 376
Imperial overstretch, 363-64
India, 31, 124, 169, 188, 212, 232-36, 241-242, 330
Indonesia, 188, 352
Infrastructure, 201-202
International Criminal Court, 176, 321
International crisis, 245
International Monetary Fund (IMF), 33, 375-77
Internet, 126-27, 165-66, 356-57
Interservice competition, 102
Interstate war, 84
Investment, 202, 228-29, 239, 241, 313
Iran, 84, 125-26, 289, 380
Iran-Iraq war, 42
Iraq, 42-43, 84, 90, 116-17, 137, 145, 155-56, 167, 177, 186, 204, 216, 222, 352
postwar, 302, 306, 310, 319
re-creation of, 379
transformation of, 290-92, 357-58
Iraq War, 182-83, 284-87, 318
Islam, 42, 109
Isolationism, 160, 309
Israel, 42, 93, 214, 217, 219, 292-93, 334, 379
J
Jaffe, Greg, 181-83
Japan, 2, 31, 130, 161, 227, 229, 239, 245, 330, 334, 363, 376
Jews, 278-81
Jointness, 337, 371
Jordan, 306
Junod, Tom, 371
Justice Department, 95, 268
K
Kagan, Robert, 52
Kaplan, Robert, 53
Kashmir, 235-36, 377
Kazakhstan, 133
Keller, Bill, 104
Kennan, George, 30, 230
Kennedy, Ken, 13-14
Kennedy, Paul, 363
Kenya, 167
Khatami, Mohammad, 380
Khodorkovsky, Mikhail, 128
Killer brief, 65-79
Kim Jong Il, 133, 305-306, 377, 379-81
Kissinger, Henry, 38, 42
Korean War, 114
Koyaanisqatsi, 247
Kristof, Nicholas, 216
Krueger, Anne, 377
Krugman, Paul, 311-12
Kull, Steven, 204
Kuwait, 84, 90, 117
L
Land
mines, 165
Latin America, 218, 229, 351-52, 373
Latinos, 209-10
Leaders
removing bad, 375
terms of service, 132-33, 162-63
Lebanon, 42, 93, 289, 306
LeMay, Curtis, 250
Lenin, V I., 45, 93-94
Lesser Includeds, 59-63
and 9/11, 96-106
ascendancy of, 263
and asymmetrical warfare, 89-96
fracturing of security, 79-88
and Manthorpe Curve, 63-79
security for, 149-51
Leviathan, 161, 175-76, 203-204, 283, 294, 299-301, 309
Liberals, 159
Liberia, 352
Life expectancy, 209
Life out of balance, 247-50
Little Big Men, 133
Locke, John, 166
Lutnick, Howard, 259
M
Madagascar, 203
Mahan, Alfred Thayer, 64-65, 75
Malaysia, 130, 218-19, 281
Mallaby, Sebastian, 375
Manthorpe, William, 63-79
Manthorpe Curve, 63-79, 100
Mao Zedong, 38
Marine Corps, U.S., 76, 78, 102, 138, 325
Mass violence, 85
McNamara, Robert, 40-41
Media, 344
Mexico, 373, 382
Middle East, 38, 92, 140, 163, 184-87, 201
Big Bang strategy in, 281-94
disconnection from outside world, 214-24, 229
transformation of, 243, 380-81
Military
bases, 179, 362
interventions, 159
-market link, 193-205
need for two, 299-303
Military Operations Other Than War (MOOTW), 103-105, 108, 141, 319
Milosevic, Slobodan, 84, 93, 120
Mission creep, 81
Miss World competition, 126
Moderates, 160
Mogadishu, 81
Money flows, 202, 224-31
Mumbai, India, 232-34
Muslims, 187
Mutual Assured Destruction (MAD), 39-41, 84, 174, 261, 271, 300
Mutually assured dependence, 122-23
Myths, 341-42
of America as globocop, 350-54
of American empire, 354-66
of global chaos, 342-50
N
National Guard, U.S., 102, 317, 319, 325
National Intelligence Council, 55
National interest, 81-82, 91, 118, 300
National Public Radio, 182-83
National security, 277, 308
National Security Act of 1947, 257
National security analyst, 11, 20
National security crisis, 261
National Security Strategy, 242
Nation-building, 81, 194
Nation-state, 84, 86
NATO, 33, 42, 128, 309, 334, 372, 382
Natural gas, 223, 380
Naval Forces Capabilities Planning Effort (NFCPE), 69-79
Naval War College, 109-10, 196-99, 250, 303, 315, 327
Navy, Indian, 232