Flash Point

by Kenneth Andrus

  “Are there other commodities we should consider?”

  “Furniture, textiles.”

  “Your department is considering more tariffs?”

  “Yes.”

  Clarke drummed his fingers on the table. They had been down this road before. Aside from alienating Hanoi, he knew tariffs were a dead end. He turned to Breckenridge. “John, we’ve been working for nearly a year now to open new venues for collaboration with the Vietnamese. It seems your policies are running counter to just about everything we’ve been trying to do.”

  Breckenridge’s head snapped up from the briefing paper he’d been studying. He was still suffering the consequences of his reprimand from the computer incident and reacted to anything that suggested he wasn’t exercising due diligence. “We’re really getting beat up by the lobbyists and Congress.”

  “That’s a given. We’re going to have to offer up something concrete,” Clarke said.

  “The hell of it is, we’d be hitting the President’s base in the South pretty hard. It’s going to be a tough call for him to reconcile our recommendations with his domestic agenda.”

  “That’s for the White House to figure out. Isn’t it?” Jessica Auden interjected. The Japan section chief, she had gotten word of her boss’s ass-chewing and had made it known she was more concerned about supporting Clarke, than Stuart’s Southern constituency.

  Clarke stiffened. He knew of his staff’s antipathy toward Valardi, but he’d been around long enough to know that dealing with prickly bosses was part of doing business. He couldn’t permit open dissension and made a mental note to speak privately with his section chief. He stopped any further discussion on the topic, redirecting the discussion. “Sean, you have anything else?”

  “It may amount to nothing, but earlier this year, a Vietnamese company purchased several Russian-built mini-submarines to explore for red coral in the Spratlys. APEC was supposed to address their request, but they got bogged down squabbling about oil and mineral rights.”

  The Pentagon’s representative, who had been content to remain silent up to this point, spoke. “May we back up a moment?”

  “Certainly, Colonel,” Clarke said, happy for the reprieve.

  “There’s more to the submarine issue. The Vietnamese Navy is preparing to accept several North Korean-built boats. Their support facilities are almost complete and the crews are completing their training.”

  “I can’t imagine Manila getting worked up,” Auden said.

  Clarke parried. “What about the Chinese?”

  “Beijing’s linking the two.”

  “Seriously?”

  “There’s some logic to their position.”

  “We don’t have any plans to intervene––do we?” Waite asked.

  “The short answer is, no. The Pentagon has no desire to intercede in what is a regional issue.”

  Clarke picked up on the Marine’s stilted response. “Could you amplify ‘intercede’?”

  The Marine evaded Clarke’s question. “There are any number of options we could exercise. For example, we could reconsider our approach if there were an imminent threat to our national interests.”

  Clarke eyed his traveling partner from Defense. He couldn’t read his face. He tried another tact. “What can you tell us about Admiral Cortez’s trip to Hanoi?”

  “He made significant progress in discussions pertaining to our use of Da Nang. He stressed an American presence could exert an important moderating effect on any further Chinese advances into the Con Song Basin.”

  “Anything else?” Clarke prodded, wondering what the Colonel wasn’t saying.

  “I don’t have the specifics.”

  Clarke broke the following silence. “Ian, there are the recent developments in Manila. Can we continue to count on Montalvo?”

  “The jury’s still out,” the Philippine expert, Ian Place, answered. “Things are getting interesting.”

  “I’m always leery of the word ‘interesting’ when it’s used in this context. How interesting?”

  “Montalvo may have the upper hand after calling a national State of Emergency to counter a possible coup. He ordered the arrest of several members of his cabinet.”

  “What the hell?” Crenshaw interrupted. “Did this just happen?”

  “Yesterday. It’s our understanding the Undersecretary for Policy, Florencia Cruz, and his Special Assistant, a guy named Atencio, are under house arrest.”

  “The charges?”

  “Sedition.”

  The Marine arched his eyebrow at Crenshaw. “Well, I’ll be damned.”

  Crenshaw nodded a reply, wondering if his back-channel source at the CIA was right about the agency’s plans to enlist the services of the reporter in Manila. “You have any details?”

  “We’ve been hearing rumors both Atencio and Cruz are linked to the Chinese Ministry of State Security.”

  Crenshaw cocked his head, concerned that sensitive details about his department’s dark programs with the AFP would surface. “Any others?”

  “None that I’ve heard about. Montalvo’s still in control, but just.”

  “What about the Department of National Defense?” Clarke asked.

  Crenshaw’s right hand tightened around his pen. The last thing he needed was an entanglement with the Chinese he didn’t know about. “The generals at the DND are supportive or neutral.”

  The Marine observed Crenshaw’s white knuckles and weighed in. “They’ve remained engaged with PACOM negotiating a new agreement called the Security Engagement Board. It’s co-chaired by Admiral Cortez and the Chief of Staff of the AFP.

  “We’re hopeful the SEB will provide us workarounds for the issues we’ve run up against in our deliberations. The agreements have been structured in such a way as to provide a mechanism to expand the provisions of the 1951 Mutual Defense Agreement to strengthen their position, vis-à-vis the Spratlys.”

  Clarke sensed Crenshaw was holding something back. “The Spratlys?”

  “The AFP insisted. The SEB will have a broad mandate to address restrictions imposed by current Philippine law. The DND issued a statement saying the SEB will provide a consultative mechanism for cooperation for non-traditional security concerns including terrorism, maritime safety, and security.”

  Clarke tried another tact. “Ian, with Cruz sidelined, how do the provisions square with the Foreign Ministry’s agenda?”

  “Too early to tell.”

  Clarke reached down for his briefcase. Up to this point, he had concluded the meeting was going nowhere and was about to call it quits. Thinking better of it, he decided to give it one more shot. “What are your thoughts about the trade delegation the PRC is sending to Manila?”

  “I’m for anything that helps the Philippine economy and stabilizes the country.”

  “I beg to differ,” Crenshaw said. “I’d like to provide another perspective.”

  Clarke released his grip on the briefcase’s handle. “Let’s hear it.”

  “Far from moderating their relations with Manila, we feel the Chinese have reached the limit of their patience. Same goes with the Vietnamese, by the way. As long as Manila agrees with Beijing’s proposals on joint development of energy and mineral resources, things may work out, but remember this. The Chinese have resisted any move for discussions on territorial disputes.”

  “But Beijing has acknowledged the Manila Doctrine,” Auden countered.

  “Yes, and the PRC has continued to refuse to even consider including the Paracel Islands in any negotiations. They have also dismissed all requests to dismantle their garrisons on Johnson and Mischief Reefs, and they have repeatedly blocked all attempts by Manila or Hanoi to raise these issues at the Asia-Pacific Parliamentary Forum. I don’t see any improvement in the South China Seas. In fact, I believe all the indicators point to a significant crisis within the next six months.”

  “That’s an ominous prediction, Colonel. Have you identified a specific flash point?”

  “Up north.�
�

  The answer caught Clarke off guard. “Really? Where? All the turmoil’s been to the south.”

  “We believe Beijing’s testing the waters,” the Marine replied. “Vietnam and the Philippines are small potatoes. The PRC’s main focus has always been on Taiwan and countering our ability to intercede on the Nationalists’ behalf.”

  “You’re not suggesting the Chinese are prepared to go to war––are you?”

  “Only if they’re pushed.” Crenshaw pushed aside the papers scattered in front of him. “Let me dispense with the innuendos and get to the point. Frankly, we believe Beijing is positioning itself to neutralize Tokyo and Washington economically while the PLA competes their preparations for military intervention.”

  Clarke silenced the agitated murmurs from around the table and addressed the committee member from Treasury. “Matt, the ball’s in your court.”

  “John has connected the dots. His assumptions on the connectivity of the various factors are spot on. Oil is driving their industrial base and they’re looking to the Spratlys for more.”

  “Hence, the genesis of the PLA’s strategic doctrine.”

  Clarke listened to the exchange while beginning to formulate a cogent plan for his boss. “Then our best bet to reduce the risk of a military confrontation with Beijing is to structure our national security policy to address this imperative.”

  “And the hysteria from The Hill,” Waite said.

  “I would be hesitant to characterize legitimate national security concerns as hysterical,” Breckenridge countered. “I’d like to comment from the International Security Affair’s perspective. There was Beijing’s unsolicited all-cash bid of 18.5 billion dollars for Unocal. I should also point out that CNOOC is now eyeing Lakeland Energy Corporation.”

  “Never heard of them,” Auden said.

  “I’d be surprised if you had. They’re a small Denver-based outfit drilling in the Con Song Basin on blocks leased to them by CNOOC. The complicating piece is that Hanoi claims the same blocks. Several months ago, the PRC announced it would protect Lakeland’s operations by force.”

  “You see a pattern here?” Crenshaw continued. “First Unocal and now Lakeland. The PRC wants a controlling interest of, or to buy outright, any company that has an internationally recognized presence in the Con Song Basin.”

  “Trojan horses,” Waites answered.

  Crenshaw nodded, “Correct. And the significance of these moves hasn’t been lost on the Vietnamese. They’ve countered and partnered with an American firm, Horizon Offshore Exploration, to drill the same area.”

  “And that has not set well with Beijing,” Clarke said. “Especially since Congress blocked the Unocal deal. Adding insult to injury, the uproar CNOOC’s bid caused in Congress led to even more provocative posturing by the Senate and threats of trade tariffs.”

  Auden pulled off her glasses and dropped them on the table. “The PRC is financing fifty-percent of our national debt, for God’s sake. And Congress wants to screw with them? That’s insane! Think of the Unocal offer... Eighteen billion. Don’t you think it’s just a tad ironic that all the Central Bank of China had to do was liquidate a fraction of their holdings of U.S. securities and buy one of our biggest oil companies? And what about our monetary system if they sold off that eighteen billion?”

  “Ironic isn’t the word I’d choose to use,” Crenshaw said. “Alarming doesn’t even fit.”

  Clarke massaged the nape of his neck. There was nothing to be gained by belaboring the obvious. He changed the subject to address the wildcard in the region. “Hugh, what do you have for us on Taiwan?”

  “Taipei’s poked the skunk.”

  “The independence issue?”

  “Yeah, the opposition party introduced a referendum seeking to change the country’s constitution to set the legal foundation to break from the mainland.”

  The Marine groaned. “Why in hell would they do that?”

  “We presume they’re responding in kind to several actions by the Chinese.”

  “The White Paper on military preparedness, and an anti-secession law?”

  “I’m not sure I want to read anything ominous in what you’ve said, Hugh. It sounds like a replay of the same verbal bombast we’ve heard before.”

  “Ordinarily I’d agree with you, Sean, but this time around the Taiwanese have said they’re not going to send their representatives to the National Unification Council”

  “There’s more to this,” Crenshaw said. “Taiwan occupies Itu Aba Island, a key piece of the strategic pie.”

  Clarke jotted a note to himself to find out what was so important about the place. “What’s at stake, Jim?”

  “Until recently, not much. There has only been a small Coast Guard garrison of some one hundred and thirty personnel conducting search and rescue operations. The Nationalists just upped the ante and announced a major project to upgrade an old airstrip.”

  “At the very least, their announcement has to be a calculated irritant,” Auden observed.

  Waite snorted. “So, we add Itu Aba to our growing list of weather stations, bird watching stands, and tourist attractions.”

  “Don’t trivialize this,” Clarke scolded. “The Nationalists are militarizing Itu Aba and not everyone in this room appears to appreciate the implications.”

  “Excuse me,” Crenshaw interrupted. “We’re staring at a dangerous situation. I’ll reinforce what Adrian just said. Releasing a statement that we view the situation as ‘a matter of grave concern’ won’t hack it.”

  Clarke held up his pen silencing the room. “I don’t think any of us here have underestimated China’s position on reunification, but Beijing has demonstrated a certain amount of ambivalence in their actions.”

  Crenshaw poured himself a glass of water before responding. “Not enough. I can tell you with complete certainty that unless the Nationalists abandon their plans to militarize Itu Aba Island, we’ll be heading down the road to war.”

  Clarke almost choked. “What’s that?”

  Crenshaw jabbed his hand to emphasize his point, knocking over his water glass. Righting it, he flicked ineffectively at the water soaking his notebook. “The placement of air combat elements on Itu Aba Island will pose a direct threat to China’s maritime security.”

  Clarke stared at the spreading pool of water. “We understand that, but you still haven’t said what has gotten the Pentagon spooled up.”

  “The PLA is repositioning their forces to the coast. If diplomatic efforts fail, they will attack.”

  “But they’ve done this before in their training exercises,” Turner protested.

  “There are no scheduled exercises.”

  “They’re bluffing,” Clarke countered, not really believing it himself.

  “Not this time. I’m not at liberty to discuss the details; however, there are specific indicators that distinguish a training exercise from those measures taken when you ramp up prior to commencing military action.”

  “You’ve seen these?”

  “Yes.”

  “Oh, shit.”

  Stunned by Crenshaw’s revelation, Clarke pushed away from the table and walked to the windows. He kept his back to the room struggling to collect his thoughts. After a long minute, he broke his silence and spoke to the window. “We’re going to be here a while. We’ll take fifteen minutes so you can call your offices.” Turning to Crenshaw, he added, “Got a sec?”

  When they were alone, Clarke lashed out. “God damn it. You blindsided me.”

  “Sorry. This information is tightly controlled. I’ll probably get my ass chewed for saying this much.”

  Clarke resigned himself to this reality and uncrossed his arms. “It’s going to get ugly.”

  “Yeah, I know.”

  Chapter 36

  COMPACFLT HEADQUATERS

  09:35 MONDAY 30 JUNE

  “Will the mystery guest please sign in?” Mackenzie said when Rohrbaugh surfaced after morning report.

  “Give
me a break. The Ops Boss held us over.”

  “Anything going on?” Mackenzie replied, not expecting much.

  “Yeah, as a matter of fact, plenty. We’ve been directed to start bringing in selected augmenters for 519.”

  Mackenzie picked up a brass .50-caliber shell casing and rolled it around in his hand. “The North Koreans looking to set off another nuke?”

  “It’s the Chinese.”

  Mackenzie carefully balanced the shell upright on his desk. “I would have thought they’d leave the Spratlys alone for a while.” Mackenzie stood and took a step toward their safe. “I need to dust off the Spratly pics?”

  “It’s not the Spratlys. It’s bigger.”

  “Oh?” Mac dropped back into his chair. “What’s happening?”

  “Taiwan.”

  “Taiwan? The PLA’s not thinking about crossing the Straits, are they? That’s not a great idea.”

  “I suspect the Nationalists don’t think so either.”

  “We have anything hard?”

  Rohrbaugh closed the door to their office. “Imagery, intercepts, key indicators.”

  “This isn’t adding up. There’s been some mention in the message traffic of the Nationalists’ intent to station Marines on Itu Aba. There’s nothing to suggest we’re about to go to war, for God’s sake.”

  “Up to now, it’s been compartmentalized. Some bright analysts with the National Intelligence Council and DIA who have access to all the pieces put things together. They set off the alarm with a report to the White House.”

  “How come the Chinese are so pissed?”

  “I’ll fill you in with what I know. There’s more going on besides putting a few Marines on Itu Aba. The Executive Yuan and the Nationalists’ legislature passed a supplemental budget for the Ministry of National Defense.”

  Mackenzie knocked the shell casing over sending it rolling to the floor. “A budget’s setting this off? No way.”

  “There was a considerable difference of opinion on the wisdom of the appropriation. Up to now, the opposition had managed to keep the bill locked up in conference.”