Flash Point

by Kenneth Andrus

  “I can’t see how a budget bill ties in,” Mackenzie said trying to wrap his head around what had just wiped out the start of a pretty good day.

  “It falls under the category of: ‘Be careful what you ask for.’ Besides providing the funding for the airfield on Itu Aba, the supplement allocated money for the purchase of PAC-II anti-missile batteries and a squadron of old P-3C’s.”

  “What’s wrong with that?”

  “Guess where that weaponry is going?”

  Mackenzie took a shot at the answer. “Itu Aba?”

  “Bingo.”

  “Makes sense, Skipper. They’re dispersing their forces and expanding their defensive perimeter.”

  “There’s nothing defensive about a P-3 looking around for something to sink. The PLAN is particularly sensitive to a Nationalist presence on Itu Aba because any anti-submarine assets based there can block their submarines’ access to the South China Sea. And remember, Itu Aba sits squarely in the middle of a cluster of Chinese garrisons in the Spratlys. A strong Nationalist presence could neutralize the PLA outposts on Johnson Island, Subi and Mischief Reef.”

  “Point made.”

  “What the analysts are telling us is the Nationalists may have finally exceeded Beijing’s level of tolerance. They’ve backed up their assessment citing a quote from Xiao in the Global Times.”

  Mackenzie rescued the .50-cal shell from the floor. “Crap.”

  “That sums it up. The situation can best be described as ‘fluid.’ That’s why the boss is bringing in the augmenters for 519. The good news?”

  “There’s good news? My thinking is: ‘If there’s all this shit, there’s got to be pony somewhere.’”

  “The Three said we don’t have a warning order. We’re still far short of implementing phase one of the OPLAN.”

  “Well, I suppose that should be reassuring,” Mac replied not feeling at all assured.

  “There’s an update scheduled at 1300.”

  “I’ll start pulling stuff together.” Mac set the shell upright on is desk. “If this turns to shit, we might as well be prepared.”

  He leaned over to spin the dial of their safe containing the OPLAN for a war with China, then paused. “I don’t have a good feeling about this, Skipper.”

  “Neither do I, Mac. Neither do I.”

  * * *

  FLEET INTELLIGENCE CENTER

  13:00

  Rohrbaugh stood with the others when Admiral Morey entered the Fleet Intelligence Center conference room. They were all surprised to see the other four-star on the island at his side.

  The significance of Admiral Cortez’s presence was not lost on the officers of Joint Task Force 519. If there had been any doubt in their minds about the seriousness of the situation in the Western Pacific, it was dispelled when Morey began to speak.

  “There’s been a lot of scuttlebutt concerning the intentions of the PLA. Our intent this afternoon is to put those rumors to rest. We cannot afford to waste time on speculation or running down false leads. Admiral Cortez?”

  “This morning, I received an alert order from the National Command Authority directing me to increase the readiness posture of our forces. To that end, I have ordered the augmentation of the command staff of JTF 519. Admiral Morey has been provided guidance to initiate the planning process for his Commander’s Estimate.”

  A sense of unreality swept over the room.

  Rohrbaugh fixed his eyes on the COMPACFLT logo on the podium, his mind pummeled by Cortez’s words.

  “We must be ready to respond with the appropriate application of force to any of several scenarios that may play out. I have not received authorization to deploy our assets beyond augmenting your staff. The President’s intent is to provide the concerned parties every opportunity to resolve this crisis by diplomatic means. To this end, he has dispatched a special envoy to Beijing in an attempt to defuse the situation.”

  Cortez consulted his notes. “Taiwan’s ambassador was summoned to the White House this morning. The President informed him that yesterday’s affirmation by Taipei of their intent to continue their Han Kiang war games was provocative.

  The President made it clear that any action the PRC takes in response to Taipei’s actions may not necessarily trigger our involvement under the provisions of the Taiwan Relations Act.

  To ensure there could be no misinterpretation of his stance, Washington placed on indefinite hold any further transfers of military hardware to Taiwan.

  That said, there is no ambiguity in Beijing’s position in this matter. The PRC communicated to Taipei their planned war games will not be tolerated.”

  Rohrbaugh looked around the room to get a read on the body language of the other officers. Their eyes were riveted on the Admirals. He turned his attention back to Cortez.

  “It goes without saying that the Chinese are monitoring our response to these events. Zhu has spoken with President Stuart and expressed assurances that the PLA will not take pre-emptive action if diplomatic interventions are successful. Therein lies the rub. If diplomatic negotiations are not successful, it is probable Xiao will be ordered to eliminate the threat.

  “With that in mind, we are reviewing the impact Exercise Summer Pulse. We’ve made no secret of our intent to surge three Strike Groups to the Pacific in the next two weeks. Depending on which side of the fence you’re sitting, the movement of our carriers could be seen as a deterrent or a further provocation.

  “The PLA estimates that without intervention, the longest the Nationalists could hold out in the face of a full-blown invasion is two weeks. With that consideration in mind, they could be inclined to act before we are in a position to intercede.

  “The Chinese have a number of options. As a prelude to a larger invasion, they could invade the Pescadores, or they could occupy Itu Aba. Without going into any further detail on these possibilities, we should review what we do know about the PLA’s intentions.”

  “Thank you, Admiral,” Morey said. “Commander?”

  “Yes, sir. We are witnessing an unprecedented mobilization. The movement of the PLA’s missile brigades, assault divisions, and naval and air units exceeds even their largest exercises.

  “Particularly noteworthy has been the forward deployment of logistic support forces to their various staging areas near the PLA’s airfields and ports.

  “Another indicator that has not been triggered before is the movement of Class VIII medical material. On this slide, we have highlighted a casualty receiving station being assembled adjacent to this airfield. As you recall, the United States signaled its intent to strike prior to the onset of the two Gulf Wars by deploying our medical units.”

  Rohrbaugh studied the briefer. His jaw tightened at sight of the officer’s scant row of service ribbons. He appeared devoid of any sense of the impact he was having on the war fighters in the room.

  “The next two slides document the mobilization of the PLA’s short and medium range missile brigades. We’ll begin with the increased command activity of the Second Artillery Corp at Qunghe. In concert with this, we’ve identified five CCS-11 and CCS-15 tactical missile units of the Corps’ 815th Brigade moving by rail to their prepared launch positions in Xianyou and Nanping. These are in addition to short-range missile brigades deploying to Yongan, Fujian, and Jiangshan Provinces. Each of these brigades has sixteen transporter/erector launchers with five to six missiles per launcher stored in hardened bunkers.

  “This slide shows the 815th Brigade’s headquarters at Leping. There has been a corresponding increase in SIGINT from this site that matches to their force movements. The Chinese have not begun activation of Unit 80301 and its intermediate-range ballistic missiles. This unit’s sole purpose is to strike our bases in Korea, Japan, and Okinawa. The fact we have not seen any increased activity indicates the PLA is not preparing for a broader engagement at this time.”

  Rohrbaugh sat grim-faced while the Commander documented the mobilization of the PLA’s main force units, but it wasn’t until
the end of the brief that the focus shifted to the South China Sea. The Spratly Islands were tacked on almost as an afterthought.

  Rohrbaugh straightened. These islands held the key to containing the crisis. His eyes widened at the changes on Mischief Reef. The PLA had abandoned any pretext of disguising the intent of their installation.

  In addition to a new pier, the Chinese had widened the existing channel into the lagoon. Several Fulin and Dayon class resupply ships anchored beside a new pier. A larger vessel with a bow ramp and helicopter deck was moored near a sandy beach on the northern side of the lagoon. Identified as a Yuting class LST, the ship carried two-hundred and fifty troops and ten tanks.

  “Presumably, the Yuting has just offloaded construction materials,” the briefer said, “but they could be staging an assault force in preparation for an attack on Nanshan or Pagasa islands.”

  Exactly, Rohrbaugh thought, but the PLA missed their chance at Pagasa. With the upgrades to the defenses and the recent stationing of additional Philippine Army Scouts and Naval Special Warfare troops on the island, it’d be a pretty tough nut to crack. On the other hand, Nanshan would be a piece of cake.

  While Rohrbaugh pondered the implications, the briefer continued. “To the northwest, the Chinese have completed construction of an aircraft shelter at Subi Reef. The PLA has positioned two Z-9 helicopters, both equipped with the C-701 anti-ship missile. By establishing a forward perimeter on Subi, Johnson, Nanshan, and Mischief Reefs, they can counter those measures we would take to intervene. We’ll now turn our attention to the PLA installations on the Paracel Islands.”

  Rohrbaugh rocked back in his chair. Damn. That’s it?

  The briefer paused for the slide to change to one of the Paracel Islands.

  “This island group represents the keystone for the PLA’s control of the South China Sea. Woody Island is the most significant with its 1,800-foot runway and hardened shelters for their Su-30 fighters. The arrows point to revetments for track-borne Hangqui-17 surface-to-air missiles. To complement these, the PLA has built a layered air defense system placing batteries of high altitude SAMs on Lincoln, Duncan, and Drummond Island.

  “The most significant threat to U.S. assets, though, is the anti-ship missiles the Chinese have deployed over the past six months.”

  That statement caught Rohrbaugh’s attention. He’d been concerned about this threat since he first reviewed the intelligence reports following the fishing boat incident. Taking on a Chinese infantry division or missile battalion was one thing. This was different. It was something a SEAL Team could do something about.

  “We detected long range HY-2 Seersuckers on Woody Island some time ago, but the PLA has increased their numbers and has begun to install hardened shelters and launching ramps for a land-launched version of the C-802 anti-ship cruise missile.

  “The Chinese have also begun construction of extensive installations on Drummond Island after connecting it with a causeway to Duncan Island and its port facilities. You can see in this picture the two ships tied up to the pier. One is a Dahzi class submarine tender. The other, a Yannan-class survey and research vessel.

  “Supporting these various installations is a robust PLA presence on Rocky Island lying just to the northeast of Woody Island. This island is notable because it has the highest peak in all of the South China Sea. The Chinese have taken full advantage of this geographic feature by emplacing multi-antennae arrays, intercept and guidance, SIGINT, and EW systems.”

  Rohrbaugh thought that was very considerate of the PLA. With most of their electronic eggs in one basket, it wouldn’t take much to take them out. But something didn’t feel right. His gut told him they were not seeing the forest for the trees. He needed to understand the PLA’s ultimate intent.

  “Commander Rohrbaugh?”

  Rohrbaugh turned. The voice belonged to a Lieutenant working his way toward him through the jam of officers waiting to exit the briefing room. The four braided blue and gold ropes looped over his left shoulder identified him as Admiral Morey’s aide.

  “Lieutenant.”

  “Sir, the Admiral would like a moment. Would you accompany me, please?”

  The request didn’t require a response, and Rohrbaugh dutifully followed the younger officer to the back entrance of the headquarters building.

  The Lieutenant proceeded through a narrow passageway to the reception area of the command suite and disappeared around a corner into Morey’s office. A moment later, he reappeared.

  “Commander? The Admiral will see you now.”

  Rohrbaugh had never been in the office. He cast a quick look around. Pretty standard stuff for a four-star. The notable exception was a huge oil painting of Admiral Chester Nimitz, the Pacific Fleet’s commander during World War II.

  Morey looked up from the desk Nimitz had once used. “An extraordinary man.”

  “Yes, sir.”

  “Please have a seat.”

  “Thank you, sir.”

  “I’ll get straight to the point, Commander. We’re sending you back to the Spratlys.”

  Rohrbaugh stiffened. What now?

  “Thanks in part to Valiant Crane and the tap your team placed, we know there is much more to the recent construction activity on Drummond Island than was presented at the brief.

  “The intercepts have provided our analysts critical information linking the infrared and radar signatures from a geostationary NRA bird to the Chinese construction.

  “There is a significant amount of work being done under the cover of darkness. The PLA’s intent is to conceal that from our daylight optical surveillance. Do you recall the picture of that Dahzi class submarine tender tied up to the jetty at Duncan Island?

  “Yes, sir.”

  “That ship has the capability to transport and handle special weapons.”

  The one-on-one, and Morey’s demeanor, permitted Rohrbaugh to ask a question. “Admiral, do we have evidence these weapons have been offloaded?”

  “Yes, but that’s not the full picture. You have to have a delivery vehicle.”

  “Yes, sir.”

  “The question is; what’s on that island? Are there HY-2’s or have they brought in the C-802s? We cannot permit the Chinese to deploy either of these systems. If they were to do so, they would have overlapping fields of fire over the South China Sea’s shipping lanes.

  The PLA has adapted the Russians’ tactics for salvo fire of these weapons. A launch of a cluster of eight of these missiles would be extraordinarily difficult, if not impossible to stop.”

  “Yes, sir,” Rohrbaugh responded, realizing the implications.

  “We need hard intel to validate our planning assumptions. You’ve been chosen to lead the mission to determine what the PLA is up to on Drummond Island. Your team will rendezvous with the Carter off Guam in five days.

  “By that time, we will have real-time imagery to assist your mission planning. Once on board, you will receive your orders. If there is any way to disable those missiles without leaving a trail back to us, you will have authorization to do so. Questions?”

  “No, sir.”

  “Although luck may have very little to do with it, I’ll wish you good luck anyway.”

  “Thank you, sir.”

  Morey hit his intercom button after the door closed. “Please have Admirals Noland and Brewer step in.”

  The fleet operations and intelligence chiefs entered his office within moments of their summons.

  “I suppose you caught Rohrbaugh leaving?”

  “A man on a mission,” the Fleet Intelligence Chief, Ralph Brewer replied.

  “I just gave him his rudder orders. Now it’s up to us to provide him the means to execute them. Duke, have you greased the skids?”

  “SPECWARCOM is on board and Group One is expecting his call.”

  “How about the Carter?”

  “She’ll be underway within twelve hours.”

  “Good. I want both of you to work this next piece with PACOM. We need real time high-r
esolution surveillance of the target. I can’t be sending Rohrbaugh in blind. What about that Army Warrior UAV unit at Wheeler?”

  “We checked,” Brewer said. “The loiter time and range are not optimal. The Army informed us that to meet their mission programming parameters, we’d have to get the Ground Control Station and some fifty personnel out to Pagasa or Batanes Islands. Provided they would even grant access, there’s not enough time to obtain permission from the Filipinos. Besides, the risks of disclosure are unacceptable. Remember that young ABC reporter snooping around after the P-8 incident?”

  “We don’t need that distraction. What’s the alternative?”

  “The Air Force’s 12th Reconnaissance Squadron out of Beale Air Force Base operates the Global Hawks. They’d provide us thirty-five hours of loiter time and a twelve-thousand mile range out and back.”

  “What’s the link?”

  “The Defense Airborne Reconnaissance Office. The Joint Service Imaging Processing Center will process the imaging.”

  “What can we count on, Ralph?”

  “I’ve been told the ISR package has the upgraded sensor suite and SIGINT capability.”

  “Where would they deploy?”

  “Anderson. Roughly a two-thousand-mile flight to Drummond Island.”

  “Can we keep the mission’s profile covert?”

  “The short answer is, yes. We’re looking at two thirty-foot trailers for the Mission Control Element and Launch and Recovery Units, both of which can be set up in an empty hangar. The antenna for the satellite link can be placed next to the hangar without attracting much notice. The four UAV’s can be kept out of sight by operating under cover of darkness. The other plus is C-17s fly in there all the time. They won’t draw any attention.”

  “Lock it in. Can you give me an update on the Broad Area Maritime Surveillance system?”

  “We’re working our Mariner UAV.”

  “Figure I could count on you guys to be a step ahead of me. What else?”

  “We’re drafting messages to Dick Triebull at Seventh Fleet and Commander, Undersea Surveillance for your release.”

  “The taskers?”