Out of Gas

by Randy Dyess

  “Oh yeah, they did exactly that at WorldComm and DigiCorp. Remember how they got caught cooking the books and all those executives went to jail. They were willing to risk jail time to keep the stock prices high. What makes you think they wouldn’t lie about fuel shortages to keep the stock prices high? They need the stock prices as high as possible when they leave and sell out.”

  “OK, OK. I concede the point, but I’m not ready to concede the end of the economy version you are thinking about. What about Plains?” Kelly asked to get them back on the topic she wanted to talk about.

  “They’re scrambling to adjust to the growing shortage of fuel. I don’t think they have a clue how to go about solving their problem and are just grasping at straws at this point. What makes them think out-sourcing everything and saving a few bucks over the short-term is going to save them when they never have enough fuel to fly their planes? I mean they are an airline and make money flying planes full of people from one point to another. Without fuel, what are they going to do, get out and push? What I believe is they are going to use the out-sourcing move to cover the fuel shortages for a little while longer. Blame IT a few more months, announce the move, blame the move for issues for a while and then blame the out-sourcing company. They might even get another 2-3 years out of the story before they have to come clean about the fuel. I don’t think their plan will work. The fuel shortage will continue to grow and they will not be able to explain the problems they are going to have.”

  “Ok,” Kelly said. “I know you believe things I don’t, so why don’t we just skip going over my thoughts at this time. I was only going to put on the board you would lose your job at Plains, but would be able to find another one. I was going to concede the new job would be at a reduced salary level and might take you a few months to find. I believe you would bounce back in one form or another. I’m not sure I’m ready to believe everything you just said, but I’m willing to start looking into your views more. I’ve never told you, but when we started looking at this I found out my company is going to close down an entire chain of restaurants. It seems the Castle chain is losing a lot of money. They had been trying to sell the chain off, but no one wanted to buy so they are closing them. That’s about two hundred restaurants.”

  “I didn’t know that. See what I’m talking about? I bet the sales were down because of the high prices they charged at Castle. It seems as if even people like us are starting to cut back on spending. I wished I thought everything would come out just fine in the future. I just can’t seem to get over being pessimistic about everything in the world now. I have been having nightmares about us living in boxes and the girls starving because I was too stubborn to see the obvious. To accept things are not always going to be as good as we’re used to and falling to plan for bad times. Even if nothing happens, at least some of the work we will do could make us happier during our retirement. Get rid of all those extra expenses now while we have good cash flow so we can spend more during retirement on fun stuff.”

  Mark walked up to his whiteboard and drew two lines done the board splitting it into three equal parts. He then labeled the sections “What I Believe Will Happen”, “What I Think May Happen”, and “What I Think Will Not Happen”. With the board ready, he started in the first section and wrote, “I believe in 30 months or so, I will no longer be employed at Plains Airlines.”

  Kelly broke in, “Are we going to discuss each point?”

  “Yes, but after I finish with this round.”

  “Ok”

  Mark went on and in the middle section wrote, “I think I will have a hard time finding a new job at my current salary and career level.” In the last section he wrote, “I do not think we will continue to be able to afford our current lifestyle going forward.”

  Kelly said, “Ok. I see where you are going with this. Why don’t you write everything you want to talk about during this first round and I’ll go make some coffee? I think we are going to need a lot of coffee over the next three days to get through this.”

  “Sounds good,” Mark said as he continued working on his points. As Kelly walked back in with the coffee, Mark finished reading his first set of discussion points and knew what he was going to say about each one.

  “Now, let’s give this a try to see where we end up,” Kelly said as she sat down her coffee and got comfortable in one of the dining room chairs.

  Mark went to the white board and turned the board around so both of them could see what he had written on it while Kelly was in the kitchen.

  What I Believe Will Happen

  1. I believe in 30 months or so, I will no longer be employed at Plains Airlines.

  2. Because of the fuel shortage, I believe Plains Airlines will go out of business.

  3. I believe I will lose my job in the next 24-30 months.

  4. Because of my age, past salary, and a global economic depression, I will not be able to find a job paying more than 50% of my present salary.

  5. Because of the fuel shortage, I believe the restaurant industry will almost collapse as people cannot afford to eat out often.

  6. Because of the fuel shortage, I believe airline companies and other businesses which rely heavily on some sort of fuel will go out of business.

  7. I believe food will become so pricy many people will not be able to afford to feed their family.

  What I Think May Happen

  1. I think there will be huge numbers of homeless people, poor people, and large amounts of people who have jobs that barely kept them a float.

  2. There will be a small number of middle-class business owners making up the middle-class.

  3. There will be a small number of rich people who still try to control everything.

  4. I think the lifestyles we are living now will soon be a thing of the past.

  What I Think Will Not Happen

  1. I do not think we will continue to be able to afford our current lifestyle going forward.

  2. I do not think the government will collapse completely.

  3. I do not think civilization will collapse completely.

  4. I do not believe the conspiracy theories posted on the internet about how this was planned by anyone.

  5. I do not believe in the end-of-world disasters posted on the internet, which shows us living like our ancestors did centuries ago.

  “That’s my first set of beliefs. What do you think?” Mark asked Kelly.

  “Do you really believe in all that?” Kelly whispered.

  “Yes. I know what I said is a little out-there. I believe the cheap oil we have used to build our current lifestyles and economies is about to come to an end. There will always be oil somewhere and there will always be other sources of fuel you can buy to put into a car. The price will be so high it will just destroy everything we know. The average citizen will not be able to afford fuel and eventually there will be no places to buy gas except in certain rich neighborhoods. The rich might even have their own private gas stations like they do country clubs and golf courses.”

  “You don’t think we will be able to make our way through this? We’re both pretty smart.”

  “That is part of why I wanted to start making plans. If we wait until the last minute like everyone else, then we will not have a chance. You know I always talk about the age barrier in IT. Hell, even I do not hire older people when I have job openings. I always think they would not be current with the latest technology or they would demand benefits I’m not willing to give them. That’s kinda going to bite me in the butt as I get older because I’m going to face the same discrimination I’ve handed out all these years. I also believe you will be able find another job when the restaurant industry collapses. You might have to take a large pay cut but your skills are valuable at a lot of different companies. We just have to be prepared and able to make the jump when it happens.”

  “I’ve always have thought you would lose your current job at Plains based on what you told me. I just thought you would be able to get something else wi
th them at the same or slightly lower salary.” Kelly replied. “I guess it makes sense now I think about what you are saying about the age barrier. I always find it hard to believe companies will not take the person best suited for the job, but I guess it was just the HR person in me. I know things are done differently in the real world because I’ve seen some well qualified people get the brush off after good interviews. I have always wanted to believe the reason was because of some reason other than their age, but I’ve always known it was because of their age. I just refused to let myself believe it.”

  “I know, but I’ve seen the same thing time and time again in the IT industry. Unless you have a big name in the industry because of books or something else or you are riding on an executive’s coattails, no one hires IT people over fifty. Everyone always thinks they are too old to understand the latest and greatest and they will want to do everything like they have always done. I guess this comes from the older guys we do have refusing to learn new technology and thinking the new isn’t as good as the old. We just do not give everyone a fighting chance because of the way things used to be. I don’t have much hope for my career at this point. Owen is only a few years older than me and he was talking about retiring after this is all over. He doesn’t think he will find another job either once Plains starts letting us go. I guess part of it is our fault because we are out-sourcing as well so if everyone follows suit then what is left here for IT people?”

  “Ok. I can come to grips with Plains downsizing based on what you told me, but do you think this fuel shortage is more than just a temporarily shortage? I did some research when you first mentioned the shortage. Don’t you think the oil sands, electric cars, and other new products will cover the loss of oil?”

  “At first, I wanted to believe something would make a difference. When I looked into those promises deeper, the more I kept coming back to was all those things people throw out there will only help so much. They tend to forget the average person can’t afford a $40,000 electric car. Even if the prices go down, there are a lot of cars that need to be replaced in a short time. How are you going to manufacture millions of cars in five or so years people can afford? What about the shortage of materials like lithium that would make manufacturing all those batteries needed for those millions of electric cars? Manufacturing that many cars in the amount of time we have left would be impossible. Sure, if we had a decade or more then we might be able to ride it out, but a decade ago no one cared. Even today, I don’t think anyone will care until they are facing the end of the rope. By then it will be too late.”

  “So you believe we will run out of oil and be thrown back to the stone age like some of those web sites claim?”

  “No, I think oil will always be around, but I think oil and gas will become much more expensive as the cheap stuff runs out. What I believe, is the price of a barrel of oil and the corresponding price of a gallon of gas will become very expensive. Old Joe next door will not be able to afford gas for his cars. If that was the only outcome then fine, we all walk to work, ride bikes, get motorcycles, electric cars, take mass transit or ride a horse. Maybe companies will allow the vast majority of office workers to telecommute to help out. But what most people seem to forget is our whole way of life is built on cheap oil. Having higher prices for gas just doesn’t make things more expensive for me to get to work. It makes everything shipped from one point to another expensive. Think about the domino effect if we had to pay 20% more for everything. We would start doing without a lot of everyday purchases which would cost jobs; those people wouldn’t be able to find jobs, and so on and so on. Eventually the economy will crash because of the lack of spending.”

  “Do you think the crash will be that bad? Sure, some would lose their jobs, maybe even us, but others would still work and everyone would just adjust to the new reality,” Kelly said.

  “I think some people will. I think if the crash happens next year and we haven’t prepared for it, we wouldn’t be able to survive the change either. Look at how much we spend each month. Trying to replace our incomes in a bad recession or depression may be impossible. What if we start losing everything because we can’t afford to keep everything? How would that make you feel? We know what losing everything did to John. Would we be able to overcome it? What happens if we have to leave our house and our credit is bad and we can’t get another? It’s those types of things I want to mull over to see if there is anything we can do to help us survive in some form or fashion. I want a plan that does not include living in a tent next to the freeway begging for food. Let me go over some things I’ve learned about Peak Oil and see if you still believe what you do after I am finished,” Mark said. He used his laptop to navigate to his favorite Peak Oil website.

  A few hours later, Mark finished his explanation to Kelly. “I’ve never thought about how much our lifestyle depends upon oil,” Kelly said as Mark finished up.

  “I know. The realization came as a shock to me as well. At first, I didn’t want to believe it, but as time went by I started seeing everything in a new light. I went to Tex-Mart and the only thing I could think of was ‘How much everything would cost if oil was three times more expensive?’ I mean, would we really import everything from China if the cost of shipping it over was three or four times more expensive?”

  “The cost of food worries me,” Kelly remarked. “I know the cost of food for our restaurants is only a small part of the overall costs of running things. I don’t want to think about what it would be like if food costs became the major budget item of running a restaurant. I don’t know how we would stay in business if the cost of an average meal at the restaurant was over a hundred dollars per family. It’s one thing to pay for a $15 hamburger or a $50 steak at a fancy restaurant. Try telling the Texas Restaurants crowd a meal will now cost them a few hundred dollars when a family meal once cost $60 or $70 dollars. We’ll go out of business in a heartbeat.”

  “Ok. I’ve told you my belief I will lose my job and the world will enter a depression caused by high prices for gas and oil. I also believe the depression will cause you to lose your job in the restaurant business as restaurants close down. I have more hope for you finding something else than me, but I think it will also be at about 50% of your current salary.”

  “So, you’re saying in a few years we will only be making about half of what we do today.”

  “Yes. The bad thing is prices for everything we will need to survive will be much higher. The total effect on our incomes will be as if we are making about 25% of what we are now.”

  Kelly looked at him and let what he said sink in. “How will we survive? How will anyone survive?”

  “I think you will see people living in America in the same way poor people live in Mexico, Africa, or India. Cardboard houses, filthy living conditions, kids dying of starvation, people living ten or twenty to a small house. Things that make us give money to charity today will be the norm for tens or hundreds of millions of Americans in the next decade or so.”

  “What are we going to do?” Kelly said. She thought about her kids running around with no shoes and bloated bellies like she had seen on a commercial a few days ago for a children’s overseas charity.

  “Let’s take a break and walk around a bit. Talking about this stuff depresses me and makes me just want to hold the kids and lie to myself everything will be alright. Sometimes I wished I’d never learned about all of this and still was in the dark. It’s hard to think you believe things others don’t and most wouldn’t believe even if you told them about it.”

  After their quick walk around the block, Kelly sat back down. “So, you left off with the world coming to end and everyone in America going coming poor, homeless, and starving.”

  “Somewhere along those lines,” Mark replied with a small grimace.

  “You’ve been thinking about this longer than I have, what’s your plan?”

  “First, I want to tell you a few things I don’t believe,” Mark said. “I don’t think the world is coming to a
n end. I don’t believe in armies of outlaws mowing down everyone they see. I don’t believe in the total collapse of government or the total collapse of the economy. I don’t buy into the whole conspiracy theory of global elites trying to take control over the world and making us their slaves. None of that stuff. There will always be some form of government, government will be a lot smaller and might even disappear at some levels we have today. I don’t know if city government will disappear. But I think county, state and federal governments will disappear. I don’t know yet what form of government we may have but someone will always be around trying to control some things and make us pay taxes. I think the level of services we get from our government will be reduced to almost nothing. There may be some road maintenance, water departments, electricity, and things like that but nothing like we have today.”

  “You think don’t think crime will rise?”

  “I think crime will go up dramatically and quickly. I don’t think gangs will organize into armies like some people believe, but crime will escalate because cities will have to get rid of large numbers of cops. Once the punks start learning they have a large amount of time before a cop shows up. We can expect more robberies, car jackings, muggings, break-ins, and other crimes existing today but kept under control by the police. Criminals will start up black markets for things most people can’t get any more due to supply issues. We have to plan on how to avoid most of those things when we can. I don’t want to have to depend upon some gang for my daily bread. If we don’t ever go to a black market, then maybe we will be less of a target. I think crime will be everywhere because cops will no longer patrol like they do today. The few cops left will show up to work at a police station, only respond to a crime after it happens and when someone tells them about it. People are going to be on their own again.”