When Shadows Collide (An Arik Bar Nathan Novel Book 1)

by Nathan Ronen

  “Dr. Haimovitz, I suggest you focus on the professional aspect, which is your domain,” she rebuked him.

  “Ma’am, Israel has the capacity to cause significant harm. Every policymaker on the global superpower level knows that it has to be taken into account as one of the four secondary superpowers in the Middle East region: the Turks, the Saudis, the Iranians, and the Israelis…”

  Once again, Raya assessed Alexander with an evil look. Her eyes contemptuously examined the frumpily dressed man who did not take care to maintain his physical appearance, a trait so important to her. Alex clearly did not exercise. His large pot belly hung flaccidly over pants that were a bad fit, while his shirt nearly split open above his ample stomach.

  Alex felt her mechanical, assessing look scanning his body like a CT device, but ignored it. However, he answered her with an amused, direct, and fearless gaze.

  “We live in a world that is opportunistic, selfish and tired of war,” he said, “and the same is true of the leaders of the Western world. Practically speaking, the world is resigned to Iran’s transformation into a borderline nuclear country. I’m not sure that the world would allow it to go fully nuclear, but that’s the current reality. The entire Israeli anti-Iranian PR campaign and our country’s attempts to recruit the world’s support somewhat resemble the story of ‘The Boy Who Cried Wolf.’”

  Arik felt an electric short-circuit of sorts hovering in the room, a terrible secret that only Raya Ron and Alex Haimovitz knew, a kind of elegant hatred between two former rivals. What does Alex know about Raya Ron that he’s not telling me? Arik found himself wondering.

  Arik believed his look was prompting Haimovitz to keep his review short.

  “I know I have a tendency to be didactic, but it prevents misunderstanding,” Alex said in self-deprecation before continuing.

  “Sixty-five percent of the world’s oil reserves are within the territory of Iran and the countries around it,” Dr. Haimovitz continued. “Therefore, the problem of a nuclear Iran is not just our problem. It’s the world’s problem. The Sunni countries are concerned by what Iran is doing just as much as they’re concerned about the nuclear threat. I believe Israel would be making a mistake to position ourselves at the forefront of the battle with Iran as if it was just our problem. We’re placing ourselves in a hot front with a pat of butter spread over our head. I want to remind you that to this day, Israel hasn’t signed any sort of nuclear treaty and refuses to expose itself to international supervision, and we’re perceived as sanctimonious when it comes to the vague topic of Israeli nuclear capabilities. It’s better if we stay away from the front lines. We should support any intelligence or diplomatic efforts, but only from the back seat.”

  Raya lost her patience. “Dr. Alex, enough of these general presentations. So, what are you telling me? What are you suggesting, practically speaking?”

  “First of all, I’m saying that as professionals we have to beware of the hype that claims we’re seemingly omniscient. In the Second Gulf War, intelligence sources flooded the American president with false information implying that Saddam Hussein’s regime possessed weapons of mass destruction, which might endanger neighboring countries and world peace. Such weapons were never found.

  “In addition, we see the world from the survivalist perspective of Holocaust survivors, a small nation with a fear of abandonment.

  “And one last point: when policymakers don’t know what to do, they do what they know how to do. And, from my perspective, that’s exactly the problem. The moment Israel turns the Iranian problem into an Israeli problem, we’re actually exempting the Arab countries, who want to act against Iran, from any need to take action, as if they’re letting us exclusively handle Iran when push comes to shove,” Dr. Haimovitz bravely continued. “The Iranians are very sophisticated. They’re highly aware of Israel’s lines in the sand. As long as Israel is playing within the sphere of its interests, using reasonable force without leaving any fingerprints and staying under the media radar, they swallow the insult. It’s what the Americans call ‘plausible deniability.’

  Raya Ron frowned at him. She was aware of the full meaning of his message but was angry at his lack of ability to keep it brief, as if he were the only one who understood what was going on in the region.

  “Dr. Haimovitz, I’m warning you again,” she said. “You’re constantly straying into areas that are outside your professional domain. I suggest you stick to your field of expertise and leave our country’s policymakers to us. Let’s focus on the enemy. Assuming you are well-versed in Iran’s key players, what are your scenarios for the future, based on your acknowledgment, or so I hope, that a nuclear Iran is an existential threat to the State of Israel.”

  “I wish it was a black-or-white issue,” Alex said. “It’s really not that simple. The options are narrow and unappealing. The Americans are very apprehensive that Israel will drag them into some aggressive adventure that will compromise their interests in the Middle East. On the other hand, that’s never stopped the Americans from occasionally using the ‘Israeli whip’ in order to strengthen international coalitions in taking sanctions against Iran, so as to produce a sense of urgency or threat in the Iranians. For the Americans or the Europeans, Iran can be considered a regional problem, but to us, it’s a problem that’s an existential threat.

  “Some time ago, I presented your predecessor, Major General Ben-Ami Cornfield, with a document called ‘The Five-Level Model’ about dealing with Iran, which included an integrated model of activity, starting with economic sanctions and ending with covert operations…”

  “I read it. We called it ‘The Five-Footed Policy,’ and I took part in the discussions about it with the prime minister. Please focus,” Raya interjected.

  Alex walked over to his computer, changed the presentation, and projected a map of Iran onto the big screen.

  “We at the Intelligence and Research Division believe there are apparently three scenarios. You should know there’s plenty of disagreement about them between us and IDF’s Military Intelligence Directorate, as well as the National Security Council.

  “The first scenario consists of attacking a single nuclear facility in Arak, Bushehr, Natanz or Fordo, some of which are in advanced stages of construction and built deep underground. If you take a look at the map, you can see that Iran is a very large country with an area of about 580,000 square miles, almost sixty times as large as Israel, and has a population that exceeds 80 million. There’s a reason they distributed their facilities all over the country. Our air force has demonstrated long-distance attack capabilities, including the ability to refuel in the air. However, with the conditions in Iran, I believe an attempt to attack a single facility, based on the lessons we’ve learned from bombing the nuclear reactor in Iraq in 1981, wouldn’t be pertinent.

  “Ma’am, in my humble opinion, and I’m just a lowly peon from a military standpoint, we don’t have those capabilities and we don’t have the absorbability and survivability required in terms of our air force’s casualties, not to mention the Israeli home front, which will be repeatedly assaulted by thousands of precision missiles a day, from Iran in the east, from Hezbollah in the north, and possibly also from Hamas and the Islamic Jihad in the south. With all due respect to ourselves, we don’t have the capability to hold back and endure like the British in World War Two. We’re a nation that transitions from euphoria to hysteria in seconds.

  “The second scenario: due to the Israeli Air Force’s limitations at such a range, there’s the option of a coordinated air and sea assault, with the combined attack capabilities of our navy submarines. The Americans are very apprehensive that we’ll proceed with what they call a mobilized attack, attacking a limited number of targets critical to the Iranian regime or to their nuclear infrastructure in a span of several consecutive days. Such action is intended to mobilize the crisis in the direction of a diplomatic solution favorable to Israel.
r />   “The third scenario is NATO’s nightmare scenario: descending into a war that includes Iran and will ignite the entire Middle East, sparking wars between Sunnis and Shiites, creating global problems with oil supply causing oil prices to soar, harming the global economy. It’s also possible that such a scenario would lead to unwanted intervention by China, the new global superpower, in the array of political pressures in the region, in addition to the usual players, since China is a major consumer of Iranian oil. Don’t forget that Chinese state-owned mega-corporations have invested tens of billions of dollars in developing oil and gas infrastructures in Iran. The Chinese view Iran as an ally and are not troubled by its nuclear armament. They might even welcome it as a means of weakening American interests in the Arab Gulf countries.”

  The room grew silent. The attendees had never seen Dr. Alex look so agitated, as if he was placing the full weight of his professional prestige on the table.

  “In my humble opinion,” Alex added, “when assessing any of these scenarios, we can see that our ally, the United States, would not respond with the strategic support required for an attack. The U.S, has never promised us diplomatic support under such circumstances, and after a few days of successful attacks, Israel might find itself without the diplomatic elements that the attack was supposed to set in motion. Furthermore, Sunni Saudi Arabia, seemingly Iran’s traditional enemy in the Gulf, has repeatedly conveyed covert messages to us sharply expressing their objection to any Israeli attack on Iran out of fear that such an attack would drag the entire region into bloody chaos, triggering the collapse of the emerging sanctions against Iran, the collapse of the Persian Gulf countries, some of which are Shiite, and the collapse of oil prices, leading to a global economic crisis. I want to sum up the scenario or ‘possible COAs’ (Courses of Action), as the military term goes. As for the military option, I’d say ‘I ran’ away from that one.” Alex chuckled in response to this dubious quip.

  A tense silence filled the room. Raya Ron appraised him like a tiger estimating the required distance to leap at its prey. “I want to get a better sense of what you’re saying here. You recommend that we sit quietly and do nothing when faced with an extreme Islamic regime whose spiritual leader openly claims we have no right to exist, and whose president has threatened to annihilate us from the UN’s central podium? A country that attacks our submarine while it’s in international waters? A country that stations Shiite forces with missiles right across from us in the Golan Heights?”

  Office manager Yair Knafo erupted. “Have you lost your mind? This is the kind of heresy that could be considered defeatism, if not treason!”

  The young office manager wanted to keep talking, but then a scene that was unprecedented in the history of the Mossad took place. To an untrained eye, it appeared as if Raya was hugging her office manager’s shoulder. However, perceptive observers could discern that the boss’s steely finger had been thrust into his trapezius muscle, at the spot where his head met his shoulder, pinching the nerve. Knafo grew immediately silent, stunned by the paralyzing pain.

  “I didn’t say we needed to just quietly sit there,” Alex chuckled. “What I was implying was that we need to acknowledge the limitations of our power. We should be humbler and use what we’re good at… I mean, using our head and our creativity. Not like some kind of Chitty Chitty Bang Bang Midnight Cowboy. And I want to emphasize that my review dealt only with the Iranian topic. We haven’t even discussed the dangerous underground currents of Sunni radical Islam all over the world, such as al-Qaeda, ISIS, the Muslim Brotherhood, and other Salafi Muslim organizations funded by Persian Gulf countries such as Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, or Saudi Arabia, and the ones active in the Sahel region in Africa.”

  Yoni Soudry, head of Tzomet Division, who had been listening attentively thus far, intervened. “I’m sure you’d agree with me, Alex, that war with Iran is eventually inevitable?” he asked.

  Alex looked at him and shook his head. “I know that I’m in a minority within the intelligence apparatus, but I’m not sure the two rivals truly wish to engage in a comprehensive military conflict.”

  “You might be right at this stage,” Raya said, “but it is in their best interest to confront us with an array of mercenary proxy forces, Shiite Iraqi, Afghani, and Chechen, and deploy advanced munitions including missiles and drones near the Israeli border in order to threaten us with an eastern Shiite crescent. Do you agree with that assumption?”

  “Of course, they’re playing a legitimate chess game against us. But they also feel threatened, knowing that Israeli submarines with nuclear attack capabilities are cruising around the Persian Gulf,” Alex replied. “If we wanted to, Israel could give the Iranians one hell of a lesson by annihilating the force of Iranian-employed mercenaries trying to station themselves in Syria. I agree there are lines in the sand we should draw against them, which we can’t allow them to cross.”

  Jacky Maman, the head of Neviot, the Mossad’s surveillance division, added, “I believe we have to take aggressive action in order to deter the Iranians from establishing bases and an advanced anti-aircraft array in Syria, with the capability to disrupt our Air Force’s activities. To me, it’s unacceptable that any plane that takes off from Ramat David, Hatzor, Nevatim, or Ben Gurion Airport is at the mercy of Iranian anti-aircraft artillery. Israel just can’t afford that.”

  “I agree,” Alex said, “but we also have to coordinate with the Russians, who have now reestablished control in Syria, since they are well-acquainted with the concept of giving the other side some room, and they have strategic interests that don’t clash with ours.”

  Arik Bar-Nathan, second-in-command to the new Mossad director and Alex’s longtime friend, tried to signal him to wrap it up, but his friend did not understand or could not get himself to stop, like a truck losing its brakes downhill.

  “It’s important to me that as policymakers here at the Mossad, we understand that there are limitations to our power, and pass on that understanding to the political echelon. It doesn’t matter if Israel invests billions in enhancing its arsenal or establishing more special units in the army, intelligence services, the Air Force, or submarines. We’re a small country in the Middle East, and I’m not sure how central we are to the superpowers’ considerations of profitability and cost versus benefit. I’m also not sure it serves us well with regard to our long-term interests, although I can understand that army personnel, with their short-term perspective, would be happy to see Arabs killing Arabs. And the Iranians are indeed Muslims, but they’re not Arabs.”

  Raya and her assistant shifted uncomfortably once again in response to this witty, cynical putdown.

  “Dr. Haimovitz,” she taunted him back in response, “even your fascinating analytics ultimately bring you back to a conclusion of black or white.”

  Alex held back from responding, adding, “In conclusion, I want to say something we, as Israelis, tend to forget. The president of the United States was elected by the Americans to preserve their interests as a superpower, which aren’t always in line with our interests as a little country in the Middle East. And one last thing, equally important: a military operation, no matter how sophisticated, ending in an unnecessary diplomatic crisis with a global superpower cannot, at least in my eyes, be considered a success. A political echelon that authorizes military action must ask the right questions and acknowledge responsibility. We absolutely cannot dismiss the Iranian enemy and view ourselves as a military superpower. That hubris might come back to bite us and cost us in blood, like what happened during the 1973 Yom Kippur War.”

  Raya interrupted the flow of Alex’s presentation. “I’m used to short meetings of an hour at most. Alex’s review was fascinating, but the time I’ve allocated to this meeting has run out, and I still have to prepare for the HAC meeting at the Prime Minister’s Office this afternoon. I apologize to all the heads of the divisions and the operational units that we didn’t have tim
e to hear. In my eyes, this meeting veered out of control. We’ll meet all of you for individual meetings during the week. I ask that you be ready to discuss primarily the issues and needs of each division, as well as your SWOT analysis. I’m allocating half an hour, forty minutes at most, to each of you. Take that into account. What happened here today won’t recur.”

  She looked to Alex, who was displaying a wide, satisfied grin, quietly muttering to herself, “Goddamn wiseguy.”

  Arik Bar-Nathan, who was sitting next to her and heard her grumbling to herself, understood from her body language that Alex’s career at the Mossad had just expired.

  The Mossad director rose from her seat and left the stunned gathering behind. Her tough demeanor and the distance she maintained from her subordinates reminded them of Ben-Ami Cornfield at the beginning of his Mossad career.

  “I don’t know that Swot guy. What did she mean?” Yonatan Soudry asked jokingly.

  Gideon Perry, the most senior member of the group, deputy Mossad director and head of the Logistics Administration, laughed. “It’s an organizational development term—it stands for Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, and Threats. She wants you to list your strengths and the areas requiring improvement. Watch it when it comes to her. She’s one focused bitch. She’s sharp and as quick as a green mamba snake, and just like the mamba, she might turn very aggressive and bite several times swiftly. As you probably remember, the green mamba is highly venomous, and its bite is considered lethal to humans.”

  The conference room grew quiet. Most of the attendees began to think that retiring after thirty or thirty-five years of service would provide them with a respectable pension and some peace of mind. If in the past, they had rejected this prospect, suddenly it seemed a bit more realistic. They were especially wary of what the future had in store for them, as well as the changes in the agency that were inevitable in view of the reorganization the new director was planning. They preferred the familiar, gray present over a dim, hazy future.