The Theory That Would Not Die

by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

  Britton JL. (1992) Collected Works of A. M. Turing: Pure Mathematics. North-Holland.

  Budiansky, Stephen. (2000) Battle of Wits: The Complete Story of Codebreaking in World War II. Free Press.

  Carter, Frank L. (1998) Codebreaking with the Colossus Computer. Bletchley Park Trust.

  ———. (2008) Breaking Naval Enigma. Bletchley Park Trust.

  Champagne L, Carl RG, Hill R. (2003) Multi-agent techniques: Hunting U-boats in the Bay of Biscay. Proceedings of SimTecT May 26–29, Adelaide, Australia.

  Chentsov, Nikolai N. (1990) The unfathomable influence of Kolmogorov. Annals of Statistics (18:03) 987–98.

  Churchill, Winston. (1949) Their Finest Hour. Houghton Mifflin.

  Collins, Graham P. (October 14, 2002) Claude E. Shannon: Founder of Information Theory. Scientific American 14ff.

  Copeland, B. Jack, ed. (2004) The Essential Turing. Clarendon Press. Essential essays.

  Copeland BJ et al. (2006) Colossus: The Secrets of Bletchley Park’s Codebreaking Computers. Oxford University Press. Essential essays.

  Eisenhart, Churchill. (1977) The birth of sequential analysis (obituary note on retired RAdm. Garret Lansing Schuyler). Amstat News (33:3).

  Epstein R, Robert G, Beber G., eds. (2008) Parsing the Turing Test: Philosophical and Methodical Issues in the Quest for the Thinking Computer. Springer.

  Erskine, Ralph. (October 2006) The Poles reveal their secrets: Alastair Denniston’s account of the July 1939 meeting at Pyry. Cryptologia (30) 204–305.

  Fagen MD. (1978) The History of Engineering and Science in the Bell System: National Service in War and Peace (1925–1975). Vol. 2. Bell Telephone Labs.

  Feferman AB, Feferman S. (2004) Alfred Tarski: Life and Logic. Cambridge University Press.

  Fienberg SE. (1985) Statistical developments in World War II: An international perspective. In A Celebration of Statistics, eds., AC Atkinson, SE Fienberg. Springer-Verlag. 25–30.

  Gandy R.O, Yates C.E.M., eds. (2001) Collected Works of A. M. Turing: Mathematical Logic. North-Holland.

  Good, Irving John. (1950) Probability and the Weighing of Evidence. London: Charles Griffin.

  ———. (1958) The interaction algorithm and practical Fourier analysis. JRSS. Series B. (20) 361–72.

  ———. (1958) Significance tests in parallel and in series. JASA (53) 799–813.

  ———. (1965) The Estimation of Probabilities: An Essay on Modern Bayesian Methods. Research Monograph 30, MIT Press.

  ———. (1979) Studies in the history of probability and statistics. XXXVII A. M. Turing’s statistical work in World War II. Biometrika (66:2) 393–96. Reprinted with Introductory Remarks in Pure Mathematics, ed., JR Britton, vol. of Collected Works of A.M. Turing. North-Holland, 1992.

  ———. (1983) Good Thinking: The Foundations of Probability and Its Applications. University of Minnesota Press.

  ———. (1984) A Bayesian approach in the philosophy of inference. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science (35) 161–66.

  ———. (2000) Turing’s anticipation of Empirical Bayes in connection with the cryptanalysis of the Naval Enigma. Journal of Statistical Computation and Simulation (66) 101–11, and in Gandy and Yates.

  Hinsley FH, Stripp A, eds. (1993) Codebreakers: The Inside Story of Bletchley Park. Oxford University Press.

  Hilton, Peter. (2000) Reminiscences and reflections of a codebreaker. In Coding Theory and Cryptography: From Enigma and Geheimschreiber to Quantum Theory, ed., WD Joyner. Springer-Verlag. 1–8.

  Hodges, Andrew. (1983, 2000) Alan Turing: The Enigma. Walker. A classic.

  ———. The Alan Turing Webpage. http://www.turing.org.uk/turing/.

  ———. (2000) Turing, a natural philosopher. Routledge. In The Great Philosophers, eds., R. Monk and F. Raphael. Weidenfeld and Nicolson.

  ———. (2002) Alan Turing—a Cambridge Scientific Mind. In Cambridge Scientific Minds, eds., Peter Harmon, Simon Mitton. Cambridge University Press.

  Hosgood, Steven. http://tallyho.bc.nu/~steve/banburismus.html.

  Kahn, David. (1967) The Codebreakers: The Story of Secret Writing. Macmillan. A classic.

  Kendall, David G. (1991a) Kolmogorov as I remember him. Statistical Science (6:3) 303–12.

  ———. (1991b) Andrei Nikolaevich Kolmogorov. 25 April 1903–20 October 1987. Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society. (37) 300–319.

  Kolmogorov, Andrei N. (1942) Determination of the center of scattering and the measure of accuracy by a limited number of observations. Izvestiia Akademii nauk SSSR. Series Mathematics (6) 3–32. In Russian.

  Kolmogorov AN, Hewitt E. (1948) Collection of Articles on the Theory of Firing. Rand Publications. Edited by Kolmogorov and translated by Hewitt.

  Koopman, Bernard Osgood. (1946) OEG Report No. 56, Search and Screening. Operations Evaluation Group, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, Navy Department, Washington, D.C.

  ———. (1980) Searching and Screening: General Principles with Historical Applications. Pergamon Press.

  Kozaczuk, Wladyslaw. (1984) Enigma. Trans. Christopher Kasparek. University Publications of America.

  Kuratowski, Kazimierz. (1980) A Half Century of Polish Mathematics, Remembrances and Reflections. Pergamon Press.

  Lee, JAN (1994) Interviews with I. Jack Good and Donald Michie, 1992. http://ei.cs.vt.edu/~history/Good.html. Downloaded February 14, 2006.

  Michie, Donald. (unpublished) Turingery and Turing’s sequential Bayes Rule. I am indebted to Jack Copeland and the Michie family for letting me read this draft chapter.

  Milllman S, ed. (1984) The History of Communications Sciences (1925–1980). Vol. 5. AT&T Bell Labs.

  Morison, Samuel Eliot. (2001) The Battle of the Atlantic: September 1939–May 1943. University of Illinois Press (1947 edition by Little, Brown).

  Morse PM, Kimball GE. (1951) Methods of Operations Research. Technology Press of MIT and John Wiley and Sons.

  Morse PM. (1982) In Memoriam: Bernard Osgood Koopman, 1900–1981. Operations Research (30) viii, 417–27.

  Newman MHA. (1953) Alan Mathison Turing, 1912–1954. Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society (1) 253–63.

  Randell B. (1980) The Colossus. In A History of Computing in the Twentieth Century: A Collection of Essays, eds., Metropolis N, Howlett J, Rota G-C. Academic Press.

  Rejewski M. (1981) How Polish mathematicians deciphered the Enigma. Annals of the History of Computing (3) 223.

  Rukhin, Andrew L. (1990) Kolmogorov’s contributions to mathematical statistics. Annals of Statistics (18:3) 1011–16.

  Sales, Tony. www.codesandciphers.org.uk/aescv.htm.

  Shannon, Claude E. (July, October 1948) A mathematical theory of communication. Bell System Technical Journal (27) 379–423, 623–56.

  ———. (1949) Communication theory of secrecy systems. netlab.cs.ucla.edu/wiki/files/Shannon1949.pdf. Acc. March 31, 2007.

  Shiryaev, Albert N. (1989) Kolmogorov: Life and Creative Activities. Annals of Probability (17:3) 866–944.

  ———. (1991) Everything about Kolmogorov was unusual. Statistical Science (6:3) 313–18.

  ———. (2003) On the defense work of A. N. Kolmogorov during World War II. In Mathematics and War, eds., B. Booss-Bavnbek & J. Hoeyrup. Birkhaeuser.

  Sloane NJA, Wyner AD., eds. (1993) Claude Elwood Shannon: Collected Papers. IEEE Press.

  Syrett, David. (2002) The Battle of the Atlantic and Signals Intelligence: U-Boat Tracking Papers, 1941–1947. Navy Records Society.

  Turing, Alan M. (1942) Report by Dr. A. M. Turing, Ph.D. and Report on Cryptographic Machinery Available at Navy Department, Washington. http://www.turing.org.uk/sources/washington.html. Accessed June 2, 2009.

  ———. (1986) A. M. Turing’s Ace Report of 1946 and Other Papers, eds., BE Carpenter, RW Doran. MIT Press.

  Waddington CH. (1973) O.R. in World War 2: Operations Research against the U-Boat. Scientific Books.

  Weierud, Frode. http://cryptocellar.web.cern.c
h/cryptocellar/Enigma/index.html. A central archives for the history of cryptanalysis during the Second World War.

  Welchman, Gordon. (1983) The Hut Six Story: Breaking the Enigma Codes. McGraw-Hill.

  Wiener, Norbert. (1956) I Am a Mathematician. MIT Press.

  Zabell SL. (1995) Alan Turing and the Central Limit Theorem. American Mathematical Monthly (102:6) 483–94.

  Chapter 5. Dead and Buried Again

  Box GEP, Tiao GC. (1973) Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis. Addison-Wesley.

  Cox, Gertrude. (1957) “Statistical frontiers.” JASA (52) 1–12.

  DeGroot, Morris H. (1986a) A conversation with David Blackwell. Statistical Science (1:1) 40–53.

  Erickson WA, ed. (1981) The Writings of Leonard Jimmie Savage: A Memorial Selection. American Statistical Association and Institute of Mathematical Statistics.

  Fienberg, Stephen E. (2006) When did Bayesian inference become Bayesian? Bayesian Analysis (1) 1–40.

  Lindley, Dennis V. (1957) Comments on Cox. In Breakthroughs in Statistics I, eds., NL Johnson and S Kotz. xxxviii.

  Perks, Wilfred. (1947) Some observations on inverse probability including a new indifference rule. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries (73) 285–334.

  Reid, Constance. (1982) Neyman—from Life. Springer-Verlag.

  Sampson AR, Spencer B, Savage IR. (1999) A conversation with I. Richard Savage. Statistical Science (14) 126–48.

  Part III. The Glorious Revival

  Chapter 6. Arthur Bailey

  Albers, Donald J. (1983) Mathematical People. Birkhäuser.

  Bailey, Arthur L. (1929) A Summary of Advanced Statistical Methods. United Fruit Co. Research Department. Reprinted 1931 as Circular no. 7.

  ———. (1942, 1943) Sampling Theory in Casualty Insurance, Parts I through VII. PCAS (29) 50–93 and (30) 31–65.

  ———. (1945) A generalized theory of credibility. PCAS (32) 13–20.

  ———. (1948) Workmen’s compensation D-ratio revisions. PCAS (35) 26–39.

  ———. (1950) Credibility procedures: Laplace’s generalization of Bayes’ rule and the combination of collateral knowledge with observed data. PCAS (37) 7–23. Six discussions of this paper and the author’s reply are in the same volume at 94–115.

  ———. (1950) Discussion of Introduction to Credibility Theory by L. H. Longley-Cook. Reprint of 1950 discussion in PCAS (1963) (50) 59–61.

  Bailey, Robert A, Simon LJ. (1959) An actuarial note on the credibility of experience of a single private passenger car. PCAS (46) 159–64.

  Bailey RA, Simon LJ. (1960) Two studies in automobile insurance ratemaking. PCAS (47) 1–19. This was later reprinted in ASTIN Bulletin (1) 192–217.

  Bailey RA. (1961) Experience rating reassessed. PCAS (48) 60–82.

  Borch, Karl. (1963) Recent developments in economic theory and their application to insurance. ASTIN Bulletin (2) 322–41.

  Bühlmann, Hans. (1967) Experience rating and credibility. ASTIN Bulletin (4) 199–207.

  Bühlmann H, Straub E. (1970) Credibility for loss ratios. Bulletin of the Swiss Association of Actuaries: (70) 111–33. English trans. by C.E. Brooks.

  Carr, William HA. (1967) Perils: Named and Unnamed. The Story of the Insurance Company of North America. McGraw-Hill.

  Cox, Gertrude. (1957) “Statistical frontiers.” JASA (52) 1–12.

  DeGroot, Morris H. (1986a) A conversation with David Blackwell. Statistical Science (1:1) 40–53.

  Hachemeister, Charles A. (1974) Credibility for regression models with application to trend. In Credibility: Theory and Applications, ed., P. M. Kahn, 129–64.

  Hewitt, Charles C., Jr. (1964, 1965, 1969). Discussion. PCAS (51) 44–45; (52) 121–27; (56) 78–82.

  Hewitt CC Jr. (1970) Credibility for severity. PCAS (57) 148–71.

  ———. (1975) Credibility for the layman. In Credibility (Theory and Applications), Academic Press and in Proceedings of the Berkeley Actuarial Research Conference on Credibility, September 19–21.

  Hickman, James C., and Heacox, Linda. (1999) Credibility theory: The cornerstone of actuarial science. North American Actuarial Journal (3:2) 1–8.

  Jewell, William S. (2004) Bayesian statistics. Encyclopedia of Actuarial Science. Wiley. 153–66.

  Kahn, PM. (1975) Credibility: Theory and Applications. Academic Press.

  Klugman SA, Panjer HH, Willmot GE. (1998) Loss Models: From Data to Decisions. John Wiley and Sons.

  Longley-Cook, Laurence H. (1958) The casualty actuarial society and actuarial studies in development of non-life insurance in North America. ASTIN Bulletin (1) 28–31.

  ———. (1962) An introduction to credibility theory. PCAS (49) 184–221.

  ———. (1964) Early actuarial studies in the field of property and liability insurance. PCAS (51) 140–47.

  ———. (1972) Actuarial aspects of industry problems. PCAS (49) Part II 104–8.

  Lundberg, Ove. (1966) Une note sur des systèmes de tarification basées sur des modèles du type Poisson composé. ASTIN Bulletin (4) 49–58.

  Mayerson, Allen L. (1964) A Bayesian view of credibility. PCAS (51) 85–104.

  Miller RB, Hickman JC. (1974) Insurance credibility theory and Bayesian estimation. In Credibility: Theory and Applications, ed. PM Kahn, 249–70.

  Miller Robert B. (1989) Actuarial applications of Bayesian statistics. In Bayesian Analysis in Econometrics and Statistics: Essays in Honor of Harold Jeffreys, ed. Arnold Zellner. Robert E. Krieger.

  Morris C, Van Slyke L. (1978) Empirical Bayes methods for pricing insurance classes. Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section. Statweb.byu.edu/faculty/gwf/revnaaj.pdf.

  Perks, Wilfred. (1947) Some observations on inverse probability including a new indifference rule. Journal of the Institute of Actuaries (73) 285–334.

  Taylor GC. (1977) Abstract credibility. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 149–68.

  ———. (1979) Credibility analysis of a general hierarchical model. Scandinavian Actuarial Journal 1–12.

  Venter, Gary G. (fall 1987) Credibility. CAS Forum 81–147.

  Chapter 7. From Tool to Theology

  Armitage P. (1994) Dennis Lindley: The first 70 years. In Aspects of Uncertainty: A Tribute to D. V. Lindley, eds., PR Freeman and AFM Smith. John Wiley and Sons.

  Banks, David L. (1996) A Conversation with I. J. Good. Statistical Science (11) 1–19.

  Dubins LE, Savage LJ. (1976) Inequalities for Stochastic Processes (How to Gamble If You Must). Dover.

  Box, George EP, et al. (2006) Improving Almost Anything. Wiley.

  Box GEP, Tiao GC. (1973) Bayesian Inference in Statistical Analysis. Addison-Wesley.

  Cramér, H. (1976). Half of a century of probability theory: Some personal recollections. Annals of Probability (4) 509–46.

  D’Agostini, Giulio. (2005) The Fermi’s Bayes theorem. Bulletin of the International Society of Bayesian Analysis (1) 1–4.

  Edwards W, Lindman R, Savage LJ. (1963) Bayesian statistical inference for psychological research. Psychological Review (70) 193–242.

  Erickson WA, ed. (1981) The Writings of Leonard Jimmie Savage: A Memorial Selection. American Statistical Association and Institute of Mathematical Statistics.

  Ferguson, Thomas S. (1976) Development of the decision model. In DB Owen, ed., On the History of Statistics and Probability. Marcel Dekker. 333–46.

  Fienberg, Stephen E. (2006) When did Bayesian inference become Bayesian? Bayesian Analysis (1) 1–40.

  Johnson NL, Kotz S, eds. (1997) Breakthroughs in Statistics. Vols. 1–3. Springer. Important reprints of twentieth century articles, primarily post-1940s.

  Kendall, Maurice G. (1968) On the future of statistics – a second look. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A (131) 182–204.

  Lindley, Dennis V. (1953) Statistical inference (with discussion). JRSS, Series B (15) 30–76.

  ———. (1957) A statistical paradox. Biometrika (44: 1/2) 187–92.

  ———. (1968) D
ecision making. The Statistician (18) 313–26.

  ———. (1980) L. J. Savage—his work in probability and statistics. Annals of Statistics (8) 1–24.

  ———. (1983) Theory and practice of Bayesian statistics. The Statistician (32) 1–11.

  ———. (1986) Savage revisited: Comment. Statistical Science (1) 486–88.

  ———. (1990) Good’s work in probability, statistics and the philosophy of science. J. Statistical Planning and Inference (25) 211–23.

  ———. (2000) The philosophy of statistics. The Statistician (49) 293–337.

  ———. (2004) Bayesian thoughts. Significance (1) 73–75.

  Mathews J, Walker RL. (1965) Mathematical Methods of Physics. W. A. Benjamin.

  Old, Bruce S. (1961) The evolution of the Office of Naval Research. Physics Today (14) 30–35.

  Rigby, Fred D. (1976) Pioneering in federal support of statistics research. In DB Owen, ed., On the History of Statistics and Probability. Marcel Dekker. 401-18.

  Rivett, Patrick. (1995) Aspects of Uncertainty. [Review] Journal of the Operational Research Society (46) 663–70.

  Sampson AR, Spencer B, Savage IR. (1999) A conversation with I. Richard Savage. Statistical Science (14) 126–48.

  Savage LJ. (1954) The Foundations of Statistics. Wiley.

  ———. (1962) The Foundations of Statistical Inference: A Discussion. London: Methuen.

  ———. (1976) On rereading R. A. Fisher. Annals of Statistics (4) 441–500.

  Schrödinger, Erwin. (1944) The statistical law of nature. Nature (153) 704-5.

  Shafer, Glenn. (1986) Savage revisited. Statistical Science (1) 463–85.

  Smith, Adrian. (1995) A conversation with Dennis Lindley. Statistical Science (10) 305–19.

  Stephan FF. et al. (1965) Stanley S. Willks. JASA (60:312) 953.

  Chapter 8. Jerome Cornfield, Lung Cancer, and Heart Attacks

  Anonymous. (1980) Obituary: Jerome Cornfield 1912–1979. Biometrics (36) 357–58.

  Armitage, Peter. (1995) Before and after Bradford Hill: Some trends in medical statistics. JRSS, Series A (158) 143–53.

  Centers for Disease Control. (1999) Achievements in public health, 1900–1999: Decline in deaths from heart disease and stroke, United States, 1900–1999. MMWR Weekly (48:30) 649–56.