The Theory That Would Not Die

by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

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  ———. (1962) Joint dependence of risk of coronary heart disease on serum cholesterol and systolic blood pressure: A discriminant function analysis. Federation Proceedings (21:4) Part II. July–August. Supplement no. 11.

  ———. (1967) Bayes Theorem. Review of the International Statistical Institute (35) 34–49.

  ———. (1969) The Bayesian outlook and its application. Biometrics (25:4) 617–57.

  ———. (1975) A statistician’s apology. JASA (70) 7–14.

  Doll, Richard. (1994) Austin Bradford Hill. Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society. (40) 129–40.

  ———. (2000) Smoking and lung cancer. American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine (162:1) 4–6.

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  Jerome Cornfield Memorial Issue. (March 1982) Biometrics Supplement, Current Topics in Biostatistics and Epidemiology (38).

  Duncan JW, Shelton WC. (1978) Revolution in United States Government Statistics 1926–1976. U.S. Department of Commerce.

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  Greenhouse, Samuel W. (1982) Jerome Cornfield’s contributions to epidemiology. Biometrics Supplement. 33–45.

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  Kass RE, Greenhouse JB. Comment: A Bayesian perspective. Statistical Science (4:4) 310–17.

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  Chapter 9. There’s Always a First Time

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  Iklé, Fred Charles. (1958) The Social Impact of Bomb Destruction. University of Oklahoma Press.

  ———. (2006) Annihilation from Within: The Ultimate Threat to Nations. Columbia University Press.

  Iklé, Fred Charles, with Aronson GJ, Madansky A. (1958) On the risk of an accidental or unauthorized nuclear detonation. RM-2251 U.S. Air Force Project Rand. RAND Corp.

  Jardini, David R. (1996) Out of the Blue Yonder: The RAND Corporation’s Diversification into Social Welfare Research, 1946–1968. Dissertation, Carnegie Mellon University.

  Kaplan, Fred. (1983) The Wizards of Armageddon. Simon and Schuster.

  Madansky, Albert. (1964) Externally Bayesian Groups. RAND Corp.

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  In Bayesian and Likelihood Methods in Statistics and Econometrics: Essays in Honor of George A. Barnard, ed. S. Geisser. North Holland. 423–36.

  Mangravite, Andrew. (spring 2006) Cracking Bert’s shell and loving the bomb. Chemical Heritage (24:1) 22.

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  Wohlstetter, Albert. (1958) The delicate balance of terror. RAND Corp. Publication 1472. Wyden, Peter. (June 3, 1961) The chances of accidental war. Saturday Evening Post.

  Chapter 10. 46,656 Varieties

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  ———. (1971) Multiple hypothesis testing. NSA Technical Journal. 63–72.

  ———. (1972) The strength of the Bayes score. NSA Technical Journal. 87–111.

  Bather, John. (1996) A conversation with Herman Chernoff. Statistical Science (11) 335–50.

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  ———. (1978) Controversies in the foundations of statistics. American Mathematical Monthly (85) 231–46.

  Good IJ. (1971) 46656 Varieties of Bayesians. Letter to the Editor. American Statistician (25) 62–63.

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  ———. (1964) Bayes factors. NSA Technical Journal. 1–5.

  ———. (1965) Bayes factors. NSA Technical Journal. 7–10.

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  Tribe, Laurence H. (1971a) Trial by mathematics: Precision and ritual in the legal process. Harvard Law Review (84:6) 1329–93.

  ———. (1971b) A further critique of mathematical proof. Harvard Law Review (84:8) 1810–20.
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  Zellner, Arnold. (2006) S. James Press and Bayesian analysis. Macroeconomic Dynamics. (10) 667–84.

  Part IV. To Prove Its Worth

  Chapter 11. Business Decisions

  Note: HBSA GC File is in the Faculty Biography Collection, Harvard Business School Archives, Baker Library, Harvard Business School.

  Aisner, Jim. (1994) Renowned Harvard Business School Professor Robert O. Schlaifer Dead at 79. Harvard University.

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  Anonymous (March 24, 1962) Math + Intuition = Decision. Business Week 54, 56, 60. HBSA Fac. Biography series GC 772.20, Harvard Business School Archives, Baker Library, Harvard Business School.

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  Anonymous. (November 3, 1971) Yale statistician Leonard Savage Dies; Authored book on gambling. New Haven Register, 23.

  Anonymous. (October 1985) Schlaifer and Fuller retire. HBS Bulletin. 18–19. HBSA GC File, R.O. Schlaifer.

  Anonymous. (1992) Schlaifer awarded Ramsey Medal. Decision Analysis Society Newsletter (11:2).

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  Birnberg JG. (1964) Bayesian statistics: A review. Journal of Accounting Research (2) 108–16.

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  A conversation with Howard Raiffa. Statistical Science (23:1) 136–49.

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  HBSA Faculty Biography Series GC 772.20, Robert O. Schlaifer.

  Memorial Service, Robert O. Schlaifer, Friday, December 2, 1994. HBSA GC 772.20 Faculty Biography.

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  ———. (1965) Introduction to Statistical Decision Theory. McGraw-Hill.

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  ———. (2002) Tribute to Robert Wilson on his 65th Birthday. Berkeley Electronic Press. http://www.bepress.com/wilson/art2.

  ———. (2006) A Memoir: Analytical Roots of a Decision Scientist. Unpublished. I am indebted to Dr. Raiffa for letting me read and quote from his manuscript.

  Raiffa H, Schlaifer R. (1961) Applied Statistical Decision Theory. MIT Press.

  Ramsey Award Winners. (1988) Videotaped talk by Howard Raiffa, Ronald Howard, Peter C. Fishburn, and Ward Edwards at the Joint National Meeting of the Operations Research Society of America. San Diego. I am indebted to INFORMS for letting me watch the video.

  Savage, Jimmie. (October 1, 1956) Letter to Committee on Statistics Faculty, Chicago. In Manuscripts and Archives, Yale University Library.

  Saxon, Wolfgang. (July 28, 1994) Robert O. Schlaifer, 79, managerial economist. New York Times.

  Schlaifer, Robert. (1936) Greek theories of slavery from Homer to Aristotle. Harvard Studies in Classical Philology (47) 165–204.

  Schlaifer R, Heron SD. (1950) Development of Aircraft Engines. Development of Aviation Fuels. Graduate School of Business Administration, Harvard University.

  Schlaifer, Robert O. (1959) Probability and Statistics for Business Decisions: An Introduction to Managerial Economics under Uncertainty. McGraw-Hill.

  Chapter 12. Who Wrote The Federalist?

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  Brooks, E. Bruce. (2001) Tales of Statisticians: Frederick Mosteller. www.UMass.edu/wsp/statistics/tales/mosteller.html. Acc. December 21, 2004.

  Chang, Kenneth. (July 27, 2006) C. Frederick Mosteller, a pioneer in statistics, dies at 89. New York Times.

  Cochran WG, Mosteller F, Tukey JW. (1954) Statistical Problems of the Kinsey Report on Sexual Behavior in the Human Male. American Statistical Association.

  Converse, Jean M. (1987) Survey Research in the United States: Roots and Emergence 1890–1960. University of California Press.

  Fienberg SE, Hoaglin DC, eds. (2006) Selected Papers of Frederick Mosteller. Springer.

  Fienberg SE et al., eds. (1990) A Statistical Model: Frederick Mosteller’s Contributions to Statistics, Science and Public Policy. Springer-Verlag.

  Hedley-Whyte J. (2007) Frederick Mosteller (1916–2006): Mentoring, A Memoir. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care (23) 152–54.

  Ingelfinger, Joseph, et al. (1987) Biostatistics in Clinical Medicine. Macmillan.

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  Kinsey AC, Pomeroy WB, Martin CE. (1948) Sexual Behavior in the Human Male. WB Saunders.

  Kolata, Gina Bari. (1979) Frederick Mosteller and applied statistics. Science (204) 397–98.

  Kruskal W, Mosteller F. (1980) Representative sampling, IV: The history of the concept in statistics, 1895–1939. International Statistical Review (48) 169–95.

  Mosteller, Frederick, et al. (1949) The Pre-Election Polls of 1948. Social Science Research Council.

  Mosteller F, Tukey J. (1954) Data analysis, including statistics. In The Collected Works of John W. Tukey, vol. 4, ed. Lyle V. Jones. Wadsworth and Brooks.

  Mosteller F, Rourke REK, Thomas GB Jr. (1961, 1970) Probability with Statistical Applications. Addison-Wesley.

  Mosteller F, Wallace DL. (1964) Inference and Disputed Authorship, The Federalist. Addison-Wesley; and (1984) Applied Bayesian and Classical Inference: The Case of the Federalist Papers. Springer-Verlag. These two books are identical but meant for different audiences.

  Mosteller F, Wallace DL. (1989) Deciding authorship. In Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown, eds., Judith M. Tanur et al. Wadsworth and Brooks/Cole. 115–25.

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  Zeckhauser RJ, Keeney RL, Sebenius JK. (1996) Wise Choices: Decisions, Games, and Negotiations. Harvard Business School Press.

  Chapter 13. The Cold Warrior

  Anscombe, FR. (2003) Quiet contributor: the civic career and times of John W. Tukey. Statistical Science (18:3) 287–310.

  Bamford, James. (1983) The Puzzle Palace: A Report on America’s Most Secret Agency. Penguin. Bean, Louis H. (1950) The pre-election polls of 1948 (review). JASA (45) 461–64.

  Bell Labs. Memories of John W. Tukey. http://cm.belllabs.com/cm/ms/departments/sia/tukey/Acc. Feb. 27, 2007

  Bell Telephone Labs. (1975–85) The History of Engineering and Science in the Bell System. Vols. 1–7.

  Brillinger, David R. (2002a) John W. Tukey: His life and professional contributions. Annals of Statistics (30) 1535–75.

  ———. (2002b) John Wilder Tukey (1915–2000). Notices of the American Mathematical Society (49:2) 193–201.

  ———. (2002c) John W. Tukey’s work on time series and spectrum analysis. Annals of Statistics (30) 1595–1618.
/>   Casella G et al. (2003) Tribute to John W. Tukey. Statistical Science (18) 283–84.

  Computer History Museum. “Selling the Computer Revolution.” www.computerhistory.org/brochures/companies. Acc. March 7, 2007.

  Dempster, Arthur P. (2002) John W. Tukey as “philosopher.” Annals of Statistics (30) 1619–28.

  Gnanadesikan R, Hoaglin DC. (1993) A Discussion with Elizabeth and John Tukey, Parts I and II. DVD. American Statistical Association.

  Jones, Lyle V., ed. (1986) The Collected Works of John W. Tukey. Vol. III: Philosophy and Principles of Data Analysis: 1949–1964. Wadsworth and Brooks/Cole.

  Leonhardt, David. (2000) John Tukey: Statistician who coined 2 crucial words. www.imstat.org/Bulletin/Sept2000/node18.html. Acc. April 7, 2007.

  Link, Richard F. (1989) Election night on television. In Statistics: A Guide to the Unknown, eds., Judith M. Tanur et al. Wadsworth and Brooks/Cole. 104–12.

  McCullagh, Peter. (2003) John Wilder Tukey. Biographical Memoirs of the Fellows of the Royal Society London (49) 537–55.

  Mosteller F, Tukey JW. (1954) Data analysis, including statistics. In The Collected Works of John W. Tukey, vol. IV, ed. Lyle V. Jones.

  Robinson, Daniel J. (1999) The Measure of Democracy: Polling, Market Research, and Public Life, 1930–1945. University of Toronto Press.

  Tedesco, John. Huntley, Chet. Museum of Broadcast Communications. www.museum.tv/archives/etv/H/htmlH/huntleychet/huntleychet.htm. Acc. July 17, 2007.

  Tukey, John W. (1962) The future of data analysis. Annals of Mathematical Statistics (33) 1–67.

  ———. (1984) The Collected Works of John W. Tukey: Time Series: 1949–1964, 1965–1984. Vols. 1, 2. Ed. David R. Brillinger. Wadsworth Advanced Books and Software.

  ———. (1984) The Collected Works of John W. Tukey: Philosophy and Principles of Data Analysis, 1949–1953; 1965–1986. Vols. 3, 4. Ed. Lyle V. Jones.Wadsworth Advanced Books and Software.

  Waite CH, Brinkley, David. Museum of Broadcast Communications. www.museum.tv/archives/etv/B/htmlB/brinkleydav/brinkleydav.html. Acc. July 16, 2007.