The Theory That Would Not Die

by Sharon Bertsch McGrayne

  Chapter 14. Three Mile Island

  Anonymous. (1982) Using experience to calculate nuclear risks. Science (217) 338.

  Apostolakis, George E. (1988) Editorial: The interpretation of probability in probabilistic safety assessments. Reliability Engineering and System Safety (23) 247–52.

  ———. (1990) The concept of probability in safety assessments of technological systems. Science (250) 1359(6).

  ———. (2004) How useful is quantitative risk assessment? Risk Analysis (24) 515–20.

  Barnett, Vic. (1973, 1982, 1999) Comparative Statistical Inference. John Wiley and Sons.

  Bather, John. (1996) A conversation with Herman Chernoff. Statistical Science (11) 335–50.

  Bier, Vicki M. (1999) Challenges to the acceptance of probabilistic risk analysis. Society for Risk Analysis (19) 703–10.

  Cooke, Roger M. (1991) Experts in Uncertainty: Opinion and Subjective Probability in Science. Oxford University Press.

  Feynman, Richard P. (1986) Appendix F: Personal observations on the reliability of the Shuttle. http://www.Science.ksc.nasa.gov/shuttle/missions/51-l/docs/rogers-commission/Appendix-F.txt.

  ———. (1987) Mr. Feynman Goes to Washington. Engineering and Science. California Institute of Technology. (vol. 50) 6–22.

  Harris, Bernard. (2004) Mathematical methods in combating terrorism. Risk Analysis (24:4) 985–88.

  Martz HF, Zimmer WJ. (1992) The risk of catastrophic failure of the solid rocket boosters on the space shuttle. American Statistician (46) 42–47.

  Russell, Cristine. (1974) Study gives good odds on nuclear reactor safety. BioScience (24) 605–06.

  Selvidge, Judith. (1973) A three-step procedure for assigning probabilities to rare events. In Utility, Probability, and Human Decision Making, ed. Dirk Wendt and Charles Vlek. D. Reidel Publishing.

  U.S. Atomic Energy Commission. (1974) Reactor Safety Study: An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. Commercial Nuclear Power Plants. WASH-1400. NUREG-75/014. National Technical Information Service.

  Webb, Richard E. (1976) The Accident Hazards of Nuclear Power Plants. University of Massachusetts Press.

  Wilson, Richard. (2002) Resource letter: RA-1: Risk analysis. American Journal of Physics (70) 475–81.

  Chapter 15. The Navy Searches

  Andrews, Capt. Frank A., ed. (1966) Aircraft Salvops Med: Sea Search and Recovery of an Unarmed Nuclear Weapon by Task Force 65, Interim Report. (1966) Chief of Naval Operations, U.S. Navy.

  Arkin, William, and Handler, Joshua. (1989) Naval Accidents 1945–1988, Neptune Paper No. 3. Greenpeace.

  Associated Press (August 31, 1976) Soviet sub and U.S. frigate damaged in crash. New York Times 5; U.S. frigate and Soviet submarine collide. The Times of London 5.

  Belkin, Barry. (1974) Appendix A: An alternative measure of search effectiveness for a clearance operation. Wagner, Associates. Unpublished.

  Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). (April 20, 2005) Plutonium. Department of Health and Human Services Agency, CDC Radiation Emergencies Radioisotope Brief. www.bt.cdc.gov/radiation Accessed July 29, 2006.

  Church BW et al. (2000) Comparative Plutonium-239 Dose Assessment for Three Desert Sites: Maralinga, Australia; Palomares, Spain; and the Nevada Test Site, USA Before and After Remedial Action. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory.

  Craven, John Piña. (2002) The Silent War: The Cold War Battle Beneath the Sea. Simon and Schuster.

  Feynman, Richard P. (1985) Surely You’re Joking, Mr. Feynman! W. W. Norton.

  Gonzalez II, Ruiz SS. (1983) Doses from Potential Inhalation by People Living Near Plutonium Contaminated Areas. Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

  Handler J, Wickenheiser A, Arkin WM. Naval Safety 1989: The Year of the Accident, Neptune Paper No. 4. Greenpeace. http//www.destroyersonline.com/usndd/ff1047/f1047pho.htm. DestroyersOnLine web page. Voge collision picture.

  Lewis, Flora. (1967) One of Our H-Bombs is Missing. McGraw-Hill. A Pulitzer Prize winner.

  Moody, Dewitt H. (2006) 40th anniversary of Palomares. Faceplate (10:2) 15–19.

  Nicholson, John H. (1999) Foreword in Under Ice: Waldo Lyon and the Development of the Arctic Submarine by William Leary. Texas A&M University Press.

  Otto, M. (1998) Course ‘Filling Station.’ Foreign Technology Division, Wright-Patterson AFB.

  Place WM, Cobb FC, Defferding CG. (1975) Palomares Summary Report. Defense Nuclear Agency, Kirtland Air Force Base.

  Reuters (October 11, 2006) Radioactive snails lead to Spain–U.S. atomic probe.

  Richardson HR, Stone LD. (1971) Operations analysis during the underwater search for Scorpion. Naval Research Logistics Quarterly (18) 141–57.

  ———. (1984) Advances in search theory with application to petroleum exploration, Report to National Science Foundation. Daniel H. Wagner, Associates.

  Richardson HR, Discenza JH. (1980) The United States Coast Guard Computer-Assisted Search Planning System (CASP). Naval Research Logistics Quarterly (27:4) 659–80.

  Richardson HR, Weisinger JR. (1984) The search for lost satellites. Proceedings of the 7th MIT-ONR Workshop on C3 Systems, eds., M. Athans, A. Levis.

  Richardson, Henry R. (1986) Search theory. Center for Naval Analyses, Alexandria, Va.

  Richardson HR, Stone LD, Monarch WR, Discenza JH. (2003) Proceedings of the SPIE Conference on Optics and Photonics, San Diego. SPIE.

  Sontag S, Drew C, with Drew AL. (1998) Blind Man’s Bluff: The Untold Story of American Sub marine Espionage. Public Affairs.

  Stone, Lawrence D. (1975) Theory of Optimal Search. Academic Press.

  ———. (1983) The process of search planning: Current approaches and continuing problems. Operations Research (31) 207–33.

  ———. (1989) What’s happened in search theory since the 1975 Lanchester Prize? Operations Research (37) 501–06.

  ———. (1990) Bayesian estimation of undiscovered pool sizes using the discovery record. Mathematical Geology (22) 309–32.

  Stone LD, Barlow CA, Corwin TL. (1999) Bayesian Multiple Target Tracking. Artech House.

  Taff LG. (1984) Optimal searches for asteroids. Icarus (57) 259–66.

  U.S. Air Force Medical Service. (July 29, 2006) Air Force Releases Reports on Palomares, Spain and Thule Airbase, Greenland Nuclear Weapons Accidents. AFMS.mil/latestnews/palomares.htm. Acc. July 29, 2006.

  U.S. Department of Energy. (Palomares, Spain medical surveillance and environmental monitoring. www.eh.doe.gov/health/ihp/indalo/spain/html. Acc. July 29, 2006.

  Wagner, Daniel H. (1988) History of Daniel H. Wagner, Associates 1963–1986. Daniel H. Wagner, Associates.

  Part V. Victory

  Chapter 16. Eureka!

  Alder, Berni J. (1990) Transcript of interview with Berni J. Alder conducted June 18, 1990. American Institute of Physics, Center for the History of Physics.

  Bayarri MJ, Berger JO. (2004) The interplay of Bayesian and frequentist analysis. Statistical Science (19) 58–80.

  Berger, James O. (2000) Bayesian analysis: A look at today and thoughts of tomorrow. JASA (95) 1269.

  ———. (2006) The case for objective Bayesian analysis. Bayesian Analysis (1:3) 385–402.

  Besag, Julian. (1974) Spatial interaction in the statistical analysis of lattice systems. JRSS B (36) 192–236.

  Britton JL, ed. (1992) Collected Works of A. M. Turing: Pure Mathematics. North-Holland.

  Cappé O, Robert CP. (2000) Markov chain Monte Carlo: 10 years and still running! JASA (95) 1282–86

  Couzin, Jennifer. (2004) The new math of clinical trials. Science (303) 784–86.

  DeGroot, Morris H. (1986b) A conversation with Persi Diaconis. Statistical Science (1:3) 319–34.

  Diaconis P, Efron B. (1983) Computer-intensive methods in statistics. Scientific American (248) 116–30.

  Diaconis, Persi. (1985) Bayesian statistics as honest work. Proceedings of the Berkeley Conference in Honor of Jerzy Neyman and Jack Kiefer (1), eds., Lucien M. Le Cam and Richard A. Olshen. Wadsworth.


  Diaconis P, Holmes S. (1996) Are there still things to do in Bayesian statistics? Erkenntnis (45) 145–58.

  Diaconis P. (1998) A place for philosophy? The rise of modeling in statistical science. Quarterly of Applied Mathematics (56:4) 797–805.

  DuMouchel WH, Harris JE. (1983) Bayes methods for combining the results of cancer studies in humans and other species. JASA (78) 293–308.

  Efron, Bradley. (1986) “Why isn’t everyone a Bayesian?” American Statistician (40) 1.

  Gelfand, Alan E. (2006) Looking back on 15 years of MCMC: Its impact on the statistical (and broader) research community. Transcript of Gelfand’s speech when awarded Parzen Prize for Statistical Innovation.

  Gelfand AE, Smith AFM. (June 1990) Sampling-based approaches to calculating marginal densities. JASA (85:410) 398–409.

  Gelfand AE et al. (December 1990) Illustration of Bayesian inference in normal data models using Gibbs Sampling. JASA (85:412) 972–85.

  Geman S, Geman D. (1984) Stochastic relaxation, Gibbs distributions and the Bayesian restoration of images. IEEE Trans. Pattern Anal. Mach. Intell. (6) 721–40.

  Gill, Jeff. (2002) Bayesian Methods: A Social and Behavioral Sciences Approach. Chapman and Hall.

  Hanson KM. (1993) Introduction to Bayesian image analysis. In Medical Imaging: Image Processing, ed. MH Loew. Proc. SPIE (1898) 716–31.

  Hastings WK. (1970) Monte Carlo sampling methods using Markov chains and their applications. Biometrika (57:1) 97–109.

  Hively, Will. (1996) The mathematics of making up your mind. Discover (17:5) 90(8). Early popular-level description of Bayes.

  Householder, Alston S. (1951) Monte Carlo Method: Proceedings of a Symposium Held June 29, 30, and July 1, 1949. National Bureau of Standards Applied Mathematics Series 12. v.

  Hubert, Peter J. (1985) Data analysis: In search of an identity. In Proceedings of the Berkeley Conference in Honor of Jerzy Neyman and Jack Kiefer, eds., Lucien M. Le Cam and Richard A. Olshen. Wadsworth.

  Hunt BR. (1977) Bayesian methods in nonlinear digital image restoration. IEEE Transactions on Computers (C-26:3) 219–29.

  Kay, John. (2003) What is the chance of your being guilty? Financial Times (London). June 29, 21.

  Kuhn, Thomas S. (1962). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. University of Chicago Press.

  Leonhardt, David. (2001) Adding art to the rigor of statistical science. New York Times, April 28. B 9.

  Lindley, DV. (1965) Introduction to Probability and Statistics from a Bayesian Viewpoint. Cambridge University Press.

  Luce, R. Duncan. (2003) Whatever happened to information theory in psychology? Review of General Psychology (7:2) 183–88.

  Malakoff, David. (1999) “Bayes offers a ‘new’ way to make sense of numbers,” “A brief guide to Bayes theorem,” “The Reverend Bayes goes to court,” and “An improbable statistician.” Science (286:5444) 1460ff.

  Markoff, John. (2000) Microsoft sees software ‘agent’ as way to avoid distractions. New York Times, July 17 C1.

  Metropolis N, Ulam S. (1949) The Monte Carlo method. JASA (44:247) 335–41.

  Metropolis, Nicholas. (1987) The beginning of the Monte Carlo method. Los Alamos Science (15) 125–30.

  Neiman, Fraser D. (2000) Coincidence or causal connection? The relationship between Thomas Jefferson’s visits to Monticello and Sally Heming’s conceptions. William and Mary Quarterly, 3d ser. (57:1) 198–210.

  Press, S. James (1986) [Why isn’t everyone a Bayesian?]: Comment. American Statistician (40) 9–10.

  Raftery, Adrian E. (1986) Choosing models for cross-classifications. American Sociological Review (51:1) 145–46.

  Raftery AE, Zeh JE. (1998) Estimating bowhead whale population size and rate of increase from the 1993 census. JASA (93:442) 451–63.

  Robert C, Casella G. (2008) A history of Markov chain Monte Carlo—subjective recollections from incomplete data. Unpublished draft kindly provided by C. Robert.

  Royal Statistical Society. “News Release: Royal Statistical Society concerned by issues raised in Sally Clark case.” October 23, 2001. http://www.rss.org.uk/archive/reports/sclark.html Acc. February 13, 2004.

  Salsburg, David. (2001) The Lady Tasting Tea: How Statistics Revolutionized Science in the Twentieth Century. W. H. Freeman.

  Sivia DS. (1996) Data Analysis: A Bayesian Tutorial. Clarendon Press.

  Smith, Adrian F.M. (1983) Comment. JASA (78) 310–11.

  Spiegelhalter DJ et al. (1999) An Introduction to Bayesian methods in health technology assessment. British Medical Journal (319) 508–12.

  Spiegelhalter DJ, Abrams KR, Myles JP. (2004) Bayesian Approaches to Clinical Trials and HealthCare Evaluation. John Wiley.

  Spiegelhalter, David J. (2004) Incorporating Bayesian ideas into healthcare evaluation. Statistical Science (19) 156–74.

  Taylor BL, Gerrodette T. (1993) The uses of statistical power in conservation biology: the vaquita and Northern Spotted Owl. Conservation Biology (7) 489–787.

  Weinberger, Steven E. (2008) Diagnostic evaluation and initial management of the solitary pulmonary nodule. Online in UpToDate, ed. Basow, DS. Waltham, Mass.

  Chapter 17. Rosetta Stones

  Abazov VM et al. (2007) Search for production of single top quarks via t c g and tug flavor-changing-neutral-current couplings. Physical Review Letters (99) 191802.

  Anderson, Philip W. (1992) The Reverend Thomas Bayes, needles in haystacks, and the fifth force. Physics Today (45:1) 9, 11.

  Aoki, Masanao. (1967) The Optimization of Stochastic Systems. Academic Press.

  Berger JO. (2003) Could Fisher, Jeffreys and Neyman have agreed on testing? Statistical Science (18:1) 1–12.

  Brockwell AE, Rojas AL, Kass RE. (2004) Recursive Bayesian decoding of motor cortical signals by particle filtering. Journal of Neurophysiology (91) 1899–1907.

  Broemeling, Lyle D. (2007) Bayesian Biostatistics and Diagnostic Medicine. Chapman and Hall.

  Brown, Emery N, et al. (1998) A statistical paradigm for neural spike train decoding applied to position prediction from ensemble firing patterns of rat hippocampal place cells. Journal of Neuroscience (18) 7411–25.

  Campbell, Gregory. (2009) Bayesian statistics at the FDA: The trailblazing experience with medical devices. Emerging Issues in Clinical Trials, Rutgers Biostatistics Day, April 3, 2009. http://www.stat.rutgers.edu?iob/bioconf09/slides/campbell.pdf. Acc. October 8, 2009.

  Committee on Fish Stock Assessment Methods, National Research Council. (1998) Improving Fish Stock Assessments. National Academy of Sciences.

  Dawid, AP. (2002) Bayes’s theorem and weighing evidence by juries. In Bayes’s Theorem, ed. Richard Swinburne. 71–90.

  Doya, Kenji, et al, eds. (2007) Bayesian Brain: Probabilistic Approaches to Neural Coding. MIT Press.

  Efron, Bradley. (2005). Bayesians, frequentists, and scientists. JASA (469) 1–11.

  ———. (2005) Modern science and the Bayesian-frequentist controversy. www-stat.Stanford.edu/~brad/papers/NEW-Mod-Sci_2005. Acc. June 13, 2007.

  ———. (2006) Microarrays, Empirical Bayes, and the two-groups model. www-stat.Stanford.edu/brad/papers/twogroups.pdf Acc. June 13, 2007.

  Frith, Chris. (2007) Making Up the Mind: How the Brain Creates Our Mental World. Blackwell.

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  Geisler WS, Kersten D. (2002) Illusions, perception and Bayes. Nature Neuroscience (5:6) 508–10.

  Goodman J, Heckerman D. (2004) Fighting spam with statistics. Significance (1) 69–72.

  Goodman, Steven N. (1999) Toward evidence-based medical statistics, Parts 1 and 2. Annals of Internal Medicine (130:12) 995–1013.

  ———. (2005) Introduction to Bayesian methods I: measuring the strength of evidence. Clinical Trials (2:4) 282–90.

  Greenspan, Alan. (2004) Risk and uncertainty in monetary policy. With panel discussion by Martin Feldstein, Mervyn King
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  Hillborn R, Mangel M. (1997) The Ecological Detective: Confronting Models with Data. Princeton University Press.

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  Kass, Robert E. (2006) Kinds of Bayesians (Comment on articles by Berger and by Goldstein). Bayesian Analysis (1) 437–40.

  Kaye, David H. (in press) The Double Helix and the Law of Evidence. Harvard University Press.

  Kaye DH, Bernstein D, Mnookin J. (2004) The New Wigmore, A Treatise on Evidence: Expert Evidence. Aspen Publishers.

  Kersten D, Mamassian P, Yuille A. (2004) Object perception as Bayesian inference. Annual Review of Psychology (55) 271–305.

  Kiani R, Shadlen MN. (2009) Representation of confidence associated with a decision by neurons in the parietal cortex. Science (324) 759–64.

  Knill DC, Pouget A. (2004) The Bayesian brain: The role of uncertainty in neural coding and computation. Trends in Neurosciences (27) 712–19.

  Körding KP, Wolpert DM. (2004) Bayesian integration in sensorimotor learning. Nature (427) 244–47.

  Leamer, Edward E. (1983) Let’s take the con out of econometrics. American Economic Review (73) 31–43.

  Lebiere, Christian. (1999) The dynamics of cognition: An ACT-% model of cognitive arithmetic. Kognitionswissenschaft (8) 5–19.

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  Ludlum, Robert. (2005) The Ambler Warning. St. Martin’s.

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