Invisible Armies: An Epic History of Guerrilla Warfare From Ancient Times to the Present
Page 74
40 Exum, “Explaining Victory,” 154–55.
41 “Victory”: Nasrallah, Voice, 233. “Cobwebs”: Harel, 34 Days, 38.
42 Hoffman, “Conflict.”
43 Mansoor, Hybrid.
44 Second Lebanon War: Based on the author’s visits to Israel in August 2006 and February 2011, which included interviews with Israeli soldiers and policymakers while the war was going on and afterward, and to Lebanon in 2009. See also Harel, 34 Days (“scalded”: vii); Boot, “Second Lebanon War”; Biddle, Lebanon Campaign; Cambanis, Privilege (human shields: 89, 91); Cordesman, Lessons (15,000 troops: 5); “Winograd Commission Final Report”; Exum, “Assessment” (decentralized); Exum, “Explaining Victory” (from local areas: 88); Nasrallah, Voice, 393 (never expected); Arkin, Divining (100 buildings: xx; ambulances: 50; 12,000 bombs: 64; 15,000 Hezbollah fighters: 74); Byman, Price, 251–65.
45 New York Times, Oct. 6, 2010.
46 “Ending”: Nasrallah, Voice, 63. “A-Team”: Richard Armitage, CBS News, April 18, 2003.
47 Evans, Algeria, xiv.
48 Chechnya: Babchenko, Soldier’s War; Smith, Allah’s Mountains (casualties: xviii); Hughes, Chechnya; Politkovskaya, Hell; Akhmadov, Struggle; Goode, “Force.”
49 http://www.pbs.org/newshour/terrorism/international/fatwa_1998.html.
50 Nexis/Lexis.
51 http://www.pbs.org/newshour/terrorism/international/fatwa_1996.html.
52 Ibid.
53 Young Bin Laden: Bergen, Osama bin Laden (TV: 14, 21; “model”: 17; Jihad magazine: 33; height: 182; “flame”: 75; “sand”: 168; “components”: 116; “bureaucratic”: 402; questionnaire: 402–7; “Big Satan”: 197); Bergen, Longest War; Bergen, Holy War; Bin Laden, Growing Up (learned English: 108; “good if Islam”: 50; “corrupted”: 43; no toys: 43; no drugs: 60; no laughter: 62; “crisp”: 27; “women”: 84; BBC: 199); Wright, Tower; National Commission, Report ($30 million a year: 170; cost of 9/11: 172); Coll, Bin Ladens ($1 million/year: 351); Bin Laden, Inside; Stout, Perspectives, 19 (caliphate), 124 (guerrilla history); Time, Jan. 11, 1999 (“cowardly”); Independent, March 22, 1997 (“paper tiger”); Nasiri, Jihad (weapons training: 142); Benjamin, Sacred Terror; Bin Laden, Messages; Ibrahim, Al Qaeda; Cullison, “Hard Drive”; Randal, Osama; Cronin, Terrorism, 276 (cost of bombings); Scheuer, Osama bin Laden; Kepel, Own Words; Richardson, Terrorists, 88 (3 R’s); Bin Laden to Zawahiri, 2002, Harmony Database, CTC, AFGP-2002-600321 (“media war”).
54 9/11: In addition to the sources previously cited for Bin Laden, especially the 9/11 Commission Report, see Bernstein, Blue, and McDermott, Perfect.
55 $500 billion: Bergen, Longest War, 91. Bankrupt America: Bin Laden, Growing Up, 177.
56 Bergen, Osama, 322.
57 Waterboarded 183 times: Bergen, Longest War, 115. 800 at Gitmo: 106. 28 interrogated: 111. For the debate over such measures, compare Mayer’s Dark Side with Yoo’s War.
58 Lacey, Global Jihad, 40.
59 Jenkins, Go Nuclear?, 101.
60 Najaf bomb: Washington Post, Aug. 30, 2003; Independent, Aug. 30 (crater); Los Angeles Times, Aug. 30 (“reeked”).
61 Zarqawi: Weaver, “Zarqawi”; Bergen, Osama bin Laden; Bergen, Longest War; Time, June 11, 2006; New York Times, July 13, 2004; Michael, “Legend”; Napoleoni, Insurgent; Brisard, Zarqawi (“burn”: 97).
62 More suicide attacks: Moghadam, Globalization, 41, 251. “By April”: Bergen, Longest War, 167.
63 Pape, Dying, 23.
64 Fishman, Bleedout, 6.
65 Zarqawi letter, 2004, at www.globalsecurity.org.
66 Zawahiri to Zarqawi, July 9, 2005, at www.globalsecurity.org.
67 Bahney, “Economic Analysis”; Fishman, Bombers.
68 Bowden, “Ploy”; Alexander, Break.
69 Based on the U.S. military’s official database published by WikiLeaks. See Guardian, Oct. 23, 2010.
70 Bergen, Longest War, 169.
71 McWilliams, Awakening, 2.46.
72 Boot, “Vietnam War.”
73 Petraeus: Based on the author’s numerous conversations and emails with Petraeus since 2003 and on Cloud, Fourth Star (Bigeard: 37, 64); Bowden, “Professor” and “Winning Streak”; Broadwell, All In; Giron, “General Motors”; Petraeus, “American Military” (“unavoidable”: 309; “prepared”: 307); Robinson, Tell Me; Gericke, Petraeus; Sennott, “Good Soldier”; Coll, “Dilemma.”
74 “Guerrilla war”: New York Times, June 28, 2003. “Dependency”: CNN.com, Sept. 10, 2003. “Dead-enders”: Bergen, Longest War, 158.
75 Boot, “Reconstructing Iraq.”
76 Washington Post, May 16, 2003.
77 Petraeus, email to author, Aug. 7, 2011.
78 O’Hanlon, “Iraq Index.”
79 Cloud, Fourth Star, 181.
80 Petraeus, “Surge of Ideas” (“pasture,” “zone,” 1.5 million).
81 “Objective”: U.S. Army, Counterinsurgency, 37. “Unity”: 39. “Environment”: 40. “Political”: 39. “Appropriate: 45. “Weapons”: 49. “Protect”: 48. “Humanely”: 245.
82 Petraeus, email to author, Aug. 7, 2011.
83 Petraeus, email to author, Jan. 4, 2011.
84 Petraeus, “Guidance.”
85 Petraeus, email to author, Aug. 7, 2011.
86 www.icasualties.org.
87 Figures based on the Guardian, Oct. 23, 2010, and the Brookings Iraq Index: www.brookings.edu/iraqindex.
88 The surge: Primarily based on the author’s eight visits to Iraq since 2003, which included extensive conversations with Iraqi and American leaders, including Petraeus, Odierno, and Crocker, as well as “battlefield circulations,” before, during, and after the surge. See also Ricks, Gamble; Robinson, Ends; Cloud, Fourth Star; West, Strongest Tribe; McWilliams, Anbar Awakening; Kagan, Surge.
89 Hafez, Suicide Bombers, 243–49.
90 http://pewglobal.org/database/.
91 Time, Jan. 11, 1999.
92 Boot, “Treading Softly.”
EPILOGUE: MEETING IN MARJAH
1 Based on the author’s personal observations.
2 Santayana, Soliloquies, 102.
IMPLICATIONS: TWELVE ARTICLES
1 Heilbrunn, Partisan.
2 Brig. Gen. Noam Tibon, interview with author, Feb. 27, 2011.
3 Kalyvas, Logic, 171.
4 Luttwak, “Dead End”; Merom, Democracies Lose.
5 Berman, “Hearts and Minds.”
6 Kalyvas, Logic, 119.
7 Sheehan, Shining Lie, 67.
8 Truong Chinh, Writings, 102.
9 Thompson, Communist Insurgency, 169.
10 Vann, “Memorandum for the Record,” March 16, 1966, AHEC/JPVP.
11 Templer to Lyttelton, Dec. 22, 1953, TEMP.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
1 The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government officials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, CFR carries out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership with special programs to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders; convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, D.C., and other cities where senior government officials, members of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with CFR members to discuss and debate major international issues; supporting a Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to produce articles, reports, and books and hold round tables that analyze foreign policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign Affairs, the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both findings and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and providing up-to-da
te information and analysis about world events and American foreign policy on its website, www.cfr.org.
The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government. All views expressed in its publications and on its website are the sole responsibility of the author or authors.
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Newspaper articles, emails, and author interviews are cited only in the endnotes.
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