Pale Rider: The Spanish Flu of 1918 and How It Changed the World
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12. Counting the dead
1. Patterson and Pyle, pp. 17–18.
2. 2.5 per cent is the case fatality rate often quoted for the Spanish flu. Note, however, that it doesn’t fit with either Patterson and Pyle’s or Johnson and Müller’s updated death tolls. If one in three people on earth–roughly 500 million human beings–fell ill, and the 2.5 per cent figure is correct, then ‘only’ 12.5 million people died. On the other hand, if 50 million people died, as per Johnson and Müller’s most conservative estimate, then the case fatality rate (global average) was actually closer to 10 per cent.
3. V. M. Zhdanov et al., The Study of Influenza (Reports on Public Health and Medical Subjects, Bethesda: National Institutes of Health, 1958).
4. Report of E. Léderrey on the sanitary situation in Ukraine in 1919, Centre des Archives Diplomatiques de la Courneuve: correspondance politique et commerciale, série Z Europe, URSS (1918–1940).
5. W. Iijima, ‘Spanish influenza in China, 1918–1920: a preliminary probe’, in Phillips and Killingray (eds.), pp. 101–9.
6. Watson.
7. N. P. A. S. Johnson and J. Müller, ‘Updating the accounts: global mortality of the 1918–1920 “Spanish” influenza pandemic’, Bulletin of the History of Medicine, Spring 2002; 76(1):105–15.
PART SIX: SCIENCE REDEEMED
13. Aenigmoplasma influenzae
1. R. Dujarric de la Rivière, Souvenirs (Périgueux: Pierre Fanlac, 1961), p. 110.
2. Archives de l’Institut Pasteur, fonds Lacassagne (Antoine), Cote LAC.B1.
3. R. Dujarric de la Rivière, ‘La grippe est-elle une maladie à virus filtrant?’, Académie des sciences (France). Comptes rendus hebdomadaires des séances de l’Académie des sciences. Séance du 21 octobre 1918, pp. 606–7.
4. É. Roux, ‘Sur les microbes dits “invisibles”’, Bulletin de l’Institut Pasteur, 1903(1):7.
14. Beware the barnyard
1. J. van Aken, ‘Is it wise to resurrect a deadly virus?’, Heredity, 2007; 98:1–2.
2. Intriguingly, in 1977, H1N1 was found to have re-emerged in the world. When scientists analysed its genome, they found that it was ‘missing’ decades of evolution–as if it had been kept in suspended animation somewhere. In fact, though the theory has never been proven, many suspect that a frozen laboratory strain was accidentally released into the general population.
3. R. D. Slemons et al., ‘Type-A influenza viruses isolated from wild free-flying ducks in California’, Avian Diseases, 1974; 18:119–24.
4. C. Hannoun and J. M. Devaux, ‘Circulation of influenza viruses in the bay of the Somme River’, Comparative Immunology, Microbiology & Infectious Diseases, 1980; 3:177–83.
5. For ease, the seasons mentioned in this discussion of the virus’s evolution over the course of the pandemic are those of the northern hemisphere.
6. D. S. Chertow et al., ‘Influenza circulation in United States Army training camps before and during the 1918 influenza pandemic: clues to early detection of pandemic viral emergence’, Open Forum Infectious Diseases, Spring 2015; 2(2):1–9.
7. M. A. Beck, J. Handy and O. A. Levander, ‘Host nutritional status: the neglected virulence factor’, Trends in Microbiology, September 2004; 12(9):417–23.
8. P. W. Ewald, ‘Transmission modes and the evolution of virulence, with special reference to cholera, influenza, and AIDS’, Human Nature, 1991; 2(1):1–30.
9. M. Worobey, G.-Z. Hana and A. Rambaut, ‘Genesis and pathogenesis of the 1918 pandemic H1N1 influenza A virus’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 3 June 2014; 111(22):8107–12.
10. F. Haalboom, ‘“Spanish” flu and army horses: what historians and biologists can learn from a history of animals with flu during the 1918–1919 influenza pandemic’, Studium, 2014; 7(3):124–39.
11. J. K. Taubenberger and D. M. Morens, ‘1918 influenza: the mother of all pandemics’, Emerging Infectious Diseases, January 2006; 12(1):15–22.
15. The human factor
1. S.-E. Mamelund, ‘A socially neutral disease? Individual social class, household wealth and mortality from Spanish influenza in two socially contrasting parishes in Kristiania 1918–19’, Social Science & Medicine, February 2006; 62(4):923–40.
2. C. E. A. Winslow and J. F. Rogers, ‘Statistics of the 1918 epidemic of influenza in Connecticut’, Journal of Infectious Diseases, 1920; 26:185–216.
3. C. J. L. Murray et al., ‘Estimation of potential global pandemic influenza mortality on the basis of vital registry data from the 1918–20 pandemic: a quantitative analysis’, Lancet, 2006; 368:2211–18.
4. C. Lim, ‘The pandemic of the Spanish influenza in colonial Korea’, Korea Journal, Winter 2011:59–88.
5. D. Hardiman, ‘The influenza epidemic of 1918 and the Adivasis of Western India’, Social History of Medicine, 2012; 25(3):644–64.
6. P. Zylberman, ‘A holocaust in a holocaust: the Great War and the 1918 Spanish influenza epidemic in France’, in Phillips and Killingray (eds.), p. 199.
7. V. N. Gamble, “There wasn’t a lot of comforts in those days”: African Americans, public health, and the 1918 influenza epidemic’, Public Health Reports, 2010; 125(S3):114–22.
8. G. D. Shanks, J. Brundage and J. Frean, ‘Why did many more diamond miners than gold miners die in South Africa during the 1918 influenza pandemic?’, International Health, 2010; 2:47–51.
9. M. C. J. Bootsma and N. M. Ferguson, ‘The effect of public health measures on the 1918 influenza pandemic in US cities’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 1 May 2007; 104(18):7588–93.
10. A. Afkhami, ‘Compromised constitutions: the Iranian experience with the 1918 influenza pandemic’, Bulletin of the History of Medicine, Summer 2003; 77(2):367–92.
11. A. Noymer, ‘The 1918 influenza pandemic hastened the decline of tuberculosis in the United States: an age, period, cohort analysis’, Vaccine, 22 July 2011; 29(S2):B38–41.
12. C. V. Wiser, ‘The Foods of an Indian Village of North India’, Annals of the Missouri Botanical Garden, November 1955; 42(4):303–412.
13. F. S. Albright et al., ‘Evidence for a heritable predisposition to death due to influenza (2008)’, Journal of Infectious Diseases, 1 January 2008; 197(1):18–24.
14. M. J. Ciancanelli, ‘Infectious disease. Life-threatening influenza and impaired interferon amplification in human IRF7 deficiency’, Science, 24 April 2015; 348(6233):448–53.
PART SEVEN: THE POST-FLU WORLD
16. The green shoots of recovery
1. A. Ebey, 35th annual report for the year ending 29 February 1920, Church of the Brethren, p. 16.
2. S. Chandra, G. Kuljanin and J. Wray, ‘Mortality from the influenza pandemic of 1918–1919: the case of India’, Demography, 2012; 49:857–65.
3. S.-E. Mamelund, ‘Can the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918 explain the baby-boom of 1920 in neutral Norway?’, Memorandum No. 01/2003 (Oslo: Department of Economics, University of Oslo, 2003).
4. For example: H. Lubinski, ‘Statistische Betrachtungen zur Grippepandemie in Breslau 1918–22’, Zentralblatt für Bakteriologie, Parasitenkunde und Infektionskrankheiten, 1923–4; 91:372–83.
5. A. Noymer and M. Garenne, ‘The 1918 influenza epidemic’s effects on sex differentials in mortality in the United States’, Population and Development Review, September 2000; 26(3):565–81.
6. J. W. Harris, ‘Influenza occurring in pregnant women, a statistical study of thirteen hundred and fifty cases’, Journal of the American Medical Association, 3 April 1919; 72:978–80.
7. D. Almond, ‘Is the 1918 influenza pandemic over? Long-term effects of in utero influenza exposure in the post-1940 US population’, Journal of Political Economy, 2006; 114(4):672–712.
8. Personal correspondence with Sue Prideaux.
9. K. A. Menninger, ‘Influenza and schizophrenia. An analysis of post-influenzal “dementia precox,” as of 1918, and five years later further studies of the psychiatric aspects of influenza’, American Journal of Psychiatry, June
1994; (S6):182–7. 1926.
10. Wellcome Film of the Month: Acute Encephalitis Lethargica (1925), http://blog.wellcome.ac.uk/2012/11/02/acute-encephalitis-lethargica-1925/.
11. D. Tappe and D. E. Alquezar-Planas, ‘Medical and molecular perspectives into a forgotten epidemic: encephalitis lethargica, viruses, and high-throughput sequencing’, Journal of Clinical Virology, 2014; 61:189–95.
12. O. Sacks, Awakenings (London: Picador, 1983), pp. 105–7.
13. R. R. Edgar and H. Sapire, African Apocalypse: The Story of Nontetha Nkwenkwe, a Twentieth–Century South African Prophet (Johannesburg: Witwatersrand University Press, 2000).
17. Alternate histories
1. Ziegler, p. 199.
2. Personal correspondence with Sofie Frackowiak.
3. M. Karlsson, T. Nilsson and S. Pichler, ‘The impact of the 1918 Spanish flu epidemic on economic performance in Sweden: an investigation into the consequences of an extraordinary mortality shock’, Journal of Health Economics, 2014; 36:1–19.
4. E. Brainerd and M. V. Siegler, ‘The Economic Effects of the 1918 Influenza Epidemic’, Discussion paper no. 3791, February 2003 (London: Centre for Economic Policy Research).
5. S. A. Wurm, ‘The language situation and language endangerment in the Greater Pacific area’, in M. Janse and S. Tol (eds.), Language Death and Language Maintenance: Theoretical, Practical and Descriptive Approaches (Amsterdam: John Benjamins Publishing Company, 2003).
6. G. Kolata, Flu: The Story of the Great Influenza Pandemic of 1918 and the Search for the Virus That Caused It (New York: Touchstone, 1999), p. 260.
7. 1994 Alaska Natives Commission report, volume 1, http://www.alaskool.org/resources/anc/anc01.htm#undoing
8. Napoleon, p. 12.
18. Anti-science, science
1. M. Bitsori and E. Galanakis, ‘Doctors versus artists: Gustav Klimt’s Medicine’, British Medical Journal, 2002; 325:1506–8.
2. New York Times, 17 October 1918.
3. J. C. Whorton, Nature Cures: The History of Alternative Medicine in America (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2002), p. 205.
4. T. Ranger, ‘The Influenza Pandemic in Southern Rhodesia: a crisis of comprehension’, in Imperial Medicine and Indigenous Societies (Manchester: Manchester University Press, 1988).
5. A. Conan Doyle, ‘The Evidence for Fairies’, Strand Magazine, 1921.
6. M. Hurley, ‘Phantom Evidence’, CAM, Easter 2015; 75:31.
7. M. Launay, Benoît XV (1914–1922): Un pape pour la paix (Paris: Les Éditions du Cerf, 2014), p. 99.
19. Healthcare for all
1. W. Witte, ‘The plague that was not allowed to happen’, in Phillips and Killingray (eds.), p. 57.
2. S. G. Solomon, ‘The expert and the state in Russian public health: continuities and changes across the revolutionary divide’, in D. Porter (ed.), The History of Public Health and the Modern State (Amsterdam: Editions Rodopi, 1994).
3. A. A. Afkhami, ‘Iran in the age of epidemics: nationalism and the struggle for public health: 1889–1926’, PhD thesis (Yale University, 2003), p. 462.
4. M. Micozzi, ‘National Health Care: Medicine in Germany, 1918–1945’, 1993, https://fee.org/articles/national-health-care-medicine-in-germany-1918–1945/.
20. War and peace
1. E. Jünger, Storm of Steel, translated by Michael Hofmann (London: The Folio Society, 2012), p. 239.
2. D. T. Zabecki, The German 1918 Offensives: A Case Study in The Operational Level of War (New York: Routledge, 2006).
3. A. T. Price-Smith, Contagion and Chaos: Disease, Ecology, and National Security in the Era of Globalization (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2009).
4. S. Zweig, The World of Yesterday (New York: Viking Press, 1943), p. 285.
5. A. A. Allawi, Faisal I of Iraq (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2014), p. 223.
6. E. A. Weinstein, ‘Woodrow Wilson’, in A medical and psychological biography (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1981).
7. Personal correspondence with John Milton Cooper Jr.
8. S. Kotkin, Stalin, Volume 1: Paradoxes of Power, 1878–1928 (London: Allen Lane, 2014).
9. Davis.
10. M. Echenberg, ‘“The dog that did not bark”: memory and the 1918 influenza epidemic in Senegal’, in Phillips and Killingray (eds.), p. 234.
11. M. K. Gandhi, Autobiography: The Story of My Experiments with Truth (CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform, 2012), p. 379.
12. A. Ebey, 35th annual report for the year ending 29 February 1920, Church of the Brethren, p. 17.
13. A. Bhatt, ‘Caste and political mobilisation in a Gujarat district’, in R. Kothari (ed.), Caste in Indian Politics (New Delhi: Orient Longman, 1971), p. 321.
14. A. J. P. Taylor, English History 1914–1945 (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1965), pp. 152–3.
15. Letter from Tagore to a friend, 11 May 1919, Young India, August 1919, volume 2.
21. Melancholy muse
1. W. L. Phelps, ‘Eugene O’Neill, Dramatist’, New York Times, 19 June 1921.
2. F. B. Smith, ‘The Russian Influenza in the United Kingdom, 1889–1894’, Social History of Medicine, 1995; 8(1):55–73.
3. J. Iwaszkiewicz, ‘The History of “King Roger”’, Muzyka, 1926, number 6, http://drwilliamhughes.blogspot.fr/2012/05/jarosaw-iwaszkiewicz-history-of-king.html.
4. P. Gay, Freud: A Life for our Time (New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2006), p. 392.
5. R. Stach, p. 262.
6. Davis, p. 109.
7. L. M. Bertucci, Influenza, a medicina enferma: ciência e prácticas de cura na época da gripe espanhola em São Paulo (Campinas: UNICAMP, 2004), p. 127.
8. A. Montague, ‘Contagious Identities: literary responses to the sanitarist and eugenics movement in Brazil’, PhD thesis (Brown University, 2007).
9. S.Wang, Lu Xun: A Biography (Beijing: Foreign Languages Press, 1984), pp. 27–9.
10. Andrews, pp. 141–2.
11. S. T. Nirala, A Life Misspent, translated by Satti Khanna (Noida, UP: HarperCollins, 2016), pp. 53–4.
PART EIGHT: ROSCOE’S LEGACY
1. D. A. Kirby, Lab Coats in Hollywood: Science, Scientists, and Cinema (Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2010), location 1890 (Kindle version).
2. A. Gulland, ‘World invests too little and is underprepared for disease outbreaks, report warns’, British Medical Journal, 2016; 352:i225.
3. J. Shaman and M. Lipsitch, ‘The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–pandemic influenza connection: coincident or causal?’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 26 February 2013; 110(S1):3689–91.
4. Audubon, Birds and Climate Change Report, 2014, http://climate.audubon.org.
5. N. A. Christakis and J. H. Fowler, ‘Social network sensors for early detection of contagious outbreaks’, PLOS One, 15 September 2010; 5(9):e12948.
6. R. P. P. Almeida, ‘Can Apulia’s olive trees be saved?’, Science, 22 July 2016; 353:346–8.
AFTERWORD: ON MEMORY
1. H. Phillips, ‘The recent wave of ‘Spanish’ flu historiography’, Social History of Medicine, 2014. doi:10.1093/shm/hku066.
2. J. W. Thompson, ‘The aftermath of the Black Death and the aftermath of the Great War’, American Journal of Sociology, 1921; 26(5):565–72.
3. G. D. Shanks, ‘Legacy of the 1914–18 war 1: How World War 1 changed global attitudes to war and infectious diseases’, Lancet, 2014; 384:1699–707.
4. H. L. Roediger and M. Abel, ‘Collective memory: a new arena of cognitive study’, Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 2015; 19(7):359–61.
5. http://numismatics.free.fr/FIM/FIM%20-%20Medaille%20des%20EpidemiesV3.0.pdf.
6. D. Gill, ‘No compromise with truth: Vera Brittain in 1917’, War and Literature, Yearbook V, 1999:67–93.
7. M. Forrier, Edmond Rostand dans la Grande Guerre 1914–1918 (Orthez, France: Editions Gascogne, 2014), p. 414.
Index
Abel, Magdalena see Roediger, Henry L.
Aboriginals, Austr
alian 21, 62, 100
acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) 19, 208
Adams, Harriet Chalmers 52–3
Addis Ababa, Ethiopia 41
AEF see American Expeditionary Forces
AFIP see Armed Forces Institute of Pathology
Afkhami, Amir 206
Africa 5, 38, 40, 41, 49, 64–5, 244
Christian missionaries 237
Ebola 17, 18, 61, 90, 231, 275, 292
flu mortality rates 201, 202
Pentecostal movement 236–7
see also South Africa; Tanzania
African Americans 203–4
African National Congress (ANC) 225, 226
Afrikaners 225, 226
Ahmedabad, India 254, 255, 256, 257, 258
Ahwa, India: Church of the Brethren mission 215
AIDS/HIV 25, 61, 78, 198, 231, 283, 292
AIR Worldwide 278
Akhmatova, Anna 262
Alaska 140, 143, 144, 190, 207, 232–3
see also Brevig Mission; Bristol Bay; Dillingham; Yupik, the
Alaska Natives Commission 232–3
Alaska Packers’ Association (APA) 142, 143, 144, 149
Albright, Frederick 208
alcohol: as protection against flu 123–4
Aldershot, England 162
Aleuts/Aleutian Islands 140, 142
see also Unalaska Island
Alfonso XIII, of Spain 38, 235–6, 252
alternative medicine 8, 121, 125, 235, 236, 238
Álvaro y Ballano, Antonio, Bishop of Zamora 79–80, 82–3, 84, 85
Alzheimer’s disease 209
America see United States of America
American Expeditionary Forces (AEF) 37, 40, 43
American Indian Wars 29–30
American Medical Association 98
Amerindians 20–21
amino acids 185
ammonia, manufacture of 247
Amritsar, India: massacre (1919) 259–60
anaemia 206, 207
ANC see African National Congress
Andrade, Mário de: Macunaíma 268–9
Andrés, Sister Dositea 83
Andrews, Father Charles 258
Anglo American mining company, Zambia 230