Blackett's War

by Stephen Budiansky

  44. Larnder, “Origin of Operational Research,” 467–71; McCloskey, “Beginnings of OR,” 146; Clark, Rise of the Boffins, 61–63; Air Ministry, Operational Research in RAF, 4–7; Crowther and Whiddington, Science at War, 93.

  45. “Tizard and the Science of War” in Blackett, War and Peace, 103–4.

  46. Williams, “Origin of Term,” 112; McCloskey, “Beginnings of OR,” 146.

  47. Quoted in Nye, Blackett, 8.

  48. Ibid., 38.

  49. Shirer, Rise and Fall, 471–75.

  50. Ibid., 387.

  5. Remedial Education

  1. Roskill, War at Sea, 1:34.

  2. Schofield, “Defeat of the U-Boats,” 120.

  3. Hackmann, “Sonar Research,” 87, 88.

  4. Padfield, Dönitz, 175.

  5. Shirer, Rise and Fall, 571.

  6. Blair, Hitler’s U-Boat War, 1:46–47.

  7. Padfield, Dönitz, 150.

  8. “Reflections of the C.-in-C., Navy, on the Outbreak of War, September 3, 1939,” Fuehrer Conferences, 37–38.

  9. “Memorandum by Admiral Doenitz, F.O. U-Boats, Date 1.9.39: The Building-Up of the U-Boat Arm,” ibid., 36–37.

  10. Blair, Hitler’s U-Boat War, 1:37; Tarrant, U-Boat Offensive, 169–76.

  11. Padfield, Dönitz, 179.

  12. Ibid., 180.

  13. Gilbert, ed., Churchill War Papers, 1:159–60.

  14. Ibid., 1:18.

  15. “Conference of the C.-in-C., Navy, with the Fuehrer on September 7, 1939,” Fuehrer Conferences, 39–40.

  16. Carroll, “First Shot,” 406; van der Vat, Atlantic Campaign, 28–30; Churchill, Second World War, 1:423.

  17. Churchill, Second World War, 1:426–28.

  18. Ibid., 1:432–34.

  19. Gilbert, ed., Churchill War Papers, 1:157–59; Churchill, Second World War, 1:416.

  20. Carroll, “First Shot,” 406; “The Athenia,” The Times, September 5, 1939.

  21. Padfield, Dönitz, 197–98.

  22. Higgins, Defensively-Armed Merchant Ships, provides a lucid analysis of the legal issues involved.

  23. Shirer, Rise and Fall, 639–43; Manchester, Last Lion, 2:563–64.

  24. Padfield, Dönitz, 206.

  25. Gilbert, ed., Churchill War Papers, 1:235.

  26. Miller, War at Sea, 43.

  27. Padfield, Dönitz, 206–7.

  28. Gilbert, ed., Churchill War Papers, 1:1276.

  29. Ibid., 1:637; Manchester, Last Lion, 2:568–69.

  30. Gilbert, ed., Churchill War Papers, 1:722.

  31. Ibid., 1:227–28; Churchill, Second World War, 1:467–68; Schofield, “Defeat of the U-Boats,” 121.

  32. Churchill, Second World War, 1:465–66.

  33. Clark, Tizard, 129.

  34. Gilbert, ed., Churchill War Papers, 1:52–53.

  35. Ibid., 1:166.

  36. Clark, Rise of the Boffins, 72–74.

  37. Andrew, Secret Service, 453.

  38. Denniston Papers, DENN 1/4, p. 5.

  39. Mahon, “History of Hut Eight,” 14.

  40. Hinsley and Stripp, eds., The Codebreakers, 77–78, 238.

  41. Manchester, Last Lion, 2:608–10; Woolf, Journey Not the Arrival, 9–10.

  42. Padfield, Dönitz, 208–11.

  43. Tarrant, U-Boat Offensive, 83; Blair, Hitler’s U-Boat War, 1:143–44; Fuehrer Conferences, 59.

  6. Blackett’s Circus

  1. Zuckerman, Apes to Warlords, 108.

  2. Krohn, “Zuckerman,” 580, 590, 593.

  3. Robertson, “Waddington,” 578–79, 603–4.

  4. Krohn, “Zuckerman,” 577.

  5. Huxley, “Science in War.”

  6. Science in War, 11.

  7. Larnder, “Origin of Operational Research,” 471–72; Zimmerman, “Preparations for War,” 118–20; Air Ministry, Operation Research in RAF, 6–8, 12, 19.

  8. Zimmerman, “Preparations for War,” 118.

  9. Quoted in Fortun and Schweber, “Scientists and World War II,” 613.

  10. Science in War, 34–35.

  11. Werskey, Visible College, 264n; Nye, Blackett, 36.

  12. Padfield, Dönitz, 214–15; van der Vat, Atlantic Campaign, 190–91.

  13. McMahan, “German Navy’s Special Intelligence,” 21.

  14. “U-99 Interrogation of Survivors,” April, 1941, pp. 5–6, U-boat Archive, www.​uboat​archive.​net/​U-​99INT.​htm; “U-70 Interrogation of Survivors,” April, 1941, p. 5, U-boat Archive, www.​uboat​archive.​net/​U-​70INT.​htm.

  15. Van der Vat, Atlantic Campaign, 252–53.

  16. Clark, Tizard, 244.

  17. Ibid., 228.

  18. Jones, Wizard War, 23–26.

  19. Ibid., 3.

  20. Ibid., 94.

  21. Ibid., 101; Churchill, Second World War, 2:384–85.

  22. Jones, Wizard War, 109.

  23. Clark, Tizard, 236–40.

  24. Ibid., 253–54.

  25. Burns, Roosevelt, 1:441.

  26. Clark, Tizard, 260–69.

  27. Morse, In at the Beginnings, 121.

  28. Bush, Pieces of the Action, 33.

  29. Burns, Roosevelt, 2:60–61; Bush, Pieces of the Action, 36.

  30. Benson, Communications Intelligence, 16–17; Bath, Tracking Axis Enemy, 35; Budiansky, Battle of Wits, 176–79.

  31. Clark, Tizard, 214–19; Rhodes, Making of the Atomic Bomb, 338.

  32. Lovell, “Blackett in War and Peace,” 228; Rhodes, Making of the Atomic Bomb, 368–69. After Tizard’s CSSAW was disbanded in June 1940, Thomson’s atomic bomb committee was transferred to the Ministry of Aircraft Production, and was known as the Maud Committee.

  33. Overy, Battle of Britain, 80; Shirer, Rise and Fall, 778.

  34. Lovell, “Patrick Maynard Stuart Blackett,” 56; Lovell, “Blackett in War and Peace,” 222.

  35. “Recollections of Problems Studied,” in Blackett, Studies of War, 207–8.

  36. Sir Fredrick Alfred Pile, Oxford Dictionary of National Biography; Pile, Ack-ack, 26, 113, 160.

  37. Clark, Rise of the Boffins, 143; I. Evans, “The Beginnings of Operational Research,” Blackett Papers, PB 4/7/3/20.

  38. “Recollections of Problems Studied,” in Blackett, Studies of War, 208; George Johnston, WW2 People’s War archive, www.​bbc.​co.​uk/​ww2peopleswar/​stories/​28/​a8644728.​shtml; E. E. Treadwell, in Sawyer et al., “Reminiscences,” 133–35.

  39. “Recollections of Problems Studied,” in Blackett, Studies of War, 209–11.

  40. “Operational Research. Professor P. M. S. Blackett,” pp. 6–7, Blackett Papers, PB 4/7/2/7; “Recollections of Problems Studied,” in Blackett, Studies of War, 220.

  41. Churchill, Second World War, 2:560.

  42. Clark, Rise of the Boffins, 150; “Formation and Organisation of Naval Operational Research Department,” PRO, ADM 1/20113; Lovell, “Blackett in War and Peace,” 223.

  7. The Real War

  1. Blackett, “Evan James Williams,” 387, 400–401, 403–4.

  2. “Coastal Command Against the U-Boat, 1939–1944,” p. 1, PRO, AIR 15/291; “Memorandum on AntiSubmarine Measures,” September 1941, Table III, Blackett Papers, PB 4/7/1/6.

  3. “Captain A/S., Belfast, to Commandin-Chief, Western Approaches, August 18, 1940,” PRO, AIR 15/29.

  4. Price, Aircraft Versus Submarine, 47–48.

  5. Churchill, Second World War, 3:100–101, 111–12, 666.

  6. Ibid., 3:663.

  7. Price, Aircraft Versus Submarine, 60–61.

  8. “Scientists at the Operational Level by P. M. S. Blackett, Notes on Statement to Admiralty Panel on 16.9.41 on the Function of the Operational Research Section (O.R.S.),” Blackett Papers, PB 4/7/1/2.

  9. “Coastal Command Tactical Instruction No. 12. Attack on U-Boats with Depth Charges Dropped from Aircraft,” January 27, 1941, PRO, AIR 15/29.

  10. “Analysis of Attacks on U-Boats by Aircraft,” ORS/CC/5/8 Report No. 142, E. J. Williams, September 11, 1941, PRO, AIR 1
5/731.

  11. “Memorandum on AntiSubmarine Measures,” September 1941, Blackett Papers, PB 4/7/1/6.

  12. Waddington, OR in World War II, 172; “Coastal Command Tactical Instruction No. 18 Attacks on Submarines,” December 15, 1941, Folder: FX-40, A16(2) Procedures, Attacks, Aircraft—(Doctrines, Tactics, Etc.) 1941–1942, NARA, Tenth Fleet: Subject Files, Box 3. Coastal Command apparently began to implement Williams’s recommendations even before his formal report was completed; in typewritten notes Blackett later made about Williams’s war work he added by hand, “Action preceded appearance of all these reports.” See “Summary of War Work,” Blackett Papers, PB 8/10/2.

  13. “Recollections of Problems Studied,” in Blackett, Studies of War, 216.

  14. Ibid., 216–17; “Note on the Camouflage of Aircraft Engaged on AntiSubmarine Operations,” Report No. O.R.S.C.C./144, by W. R. Merton, PRO, AIR 15/731; “Memorandum on AntiSubmarine Measures,” September 1941, Blackett Papers, PB 4/7/1/6.

  15. “Notes for Lecture on Science and the U-Boat War, D.N.O.R.—May 1943,” pp. 9–10, Blackett Papers, PB 4/7/1/5. (A copy of this same document is also in PRO, ADM 219/629.)

  16. Morse and Kimball, Methods of Operations Research, 3–4.

  17. “Operational Research. Notes of a Lecture Given by Professor P.M.S. Blackett, F.R.S., to Institute of Physics on 17th March 1953, Sydney, Australia,” pp. 6–7, Blackett Papers, PB 4/7/2/9.

  18. Llewellyn-Jones, “Case for Large Convoys,” 139.

  19. “Scientists at the Operational Level by P. M. S. Blackett, Notes on Statement to Admiralty Panel on 16.9.41 on the Function of the Operational Research Section (O.R.S.),” Blackett Papers, PB 4/7/1/2.

  20. Christopherson and Baughan, “Reminiscences,” 574; “Monograph on the Work of the Operational Research Section Coastal Command, edited by C. H. Waddington, Sc. D.,” Staff of the Operational Research Section, Coastal Command (front matter), PRO, AIR 15/133; Clark, Rise of the Boffins, 144.

  21. Llewellyn-Jones, “Case for Large Convoys,” 162n50.

  22. Sawyer et al., “Reminiscences,” 129.

  23. Calder, Science in Our Lives, 143–44.

  24. Middlebrook, Convoy, 109.

  25. Lawrence, Tales of the North Atlantic, 172.

  26. Middlebrook, Convoy, 105; Brown, Atlantic Escorts, 48–50.

  27. Monsarrat, Cruel Sea, 7, 46, 87, 104.

  28. Ibid., 33, 144.

  29. Miller, War at Sea, 178; Middlebrook, Convoy, 110.

  30. Buchheim, Das Boot, 11.

  31. Ibid., 55–56, 282; Blair, Hitler’s U-Boat War, 1:57–64.

  32. “U-70 Interrogation of Survivors,” April 1941, pp. 10–11, U-boat Archive, www.​uboatarchive.​net/​U-​70INT.​htm.

  33. Kahn, Seizing the Enigma, 154–59.

  34. “Report, Capture of U 110, Commander A. Baker-Cresswell,” May 10, 1941, PRO, ADM1/11133; Balme, Oral History.

  35. Erskine, “Naval Enigma: A Missing Link,” 497.

  36. Hinsley and Stripp, eds., Codebreakers, 134.

  37. “Enigma General Procedure,” NARA, Historic Cryptographic Collection, NR 1679.

  38. Kahn, Seizing the Enigma, 176.

  39. Milner-Barry, Oral History.

  40. Frank Birch to Edward Travis, August 15, 1941, PRO, HW 14/18.

  41. Alastair Denniston, August 18, 1941, PRO, HW 14/18.

  42. Alfred Dillwyn Knox to Alastair Denniston, November 1941, PRO, HW 14/22.

  43. Milner-Barry, “Action This Day.”

  44. McMahan, “German Reactions,” 186.

  45. “Conference of the C.-in-C., Navy, with the Fuehrer in the Afternoon of June 21, 1941,” Fuehrer Conferences, 220; “Conference of the C.-in-C., Navy, with the Fuehrer in Wolfsschanze in the Afternoon of July 25, 1941,” ibid., 222.

  46. Burns, Roosevelt, 2:105.

  47. Ibid., 2:140–41; Morison, History of Naval Operations, 1:84–85.

  48. Gilbert, Churchill and America, 239.

  49. Klein, Woody Guthrie, 142.

  50. Ibid., 209–10.

  8. Baker’s Dozen

  1. Churchill, Second World War, 3:606–8.

  2. “Report of the C.-in-C., Navy, to the Fuehrer in Berlin on December 12, 1941,” Fuehrer Conferences, 245.

  3. Sternhell and Thorndike, Antisubmarine Warfare, 84.

  4. Padfield, Dönitz, 237–38.

  5. “Manuscript for Division 6 Long History,” p. 3-1, NARA, Division 6 Records, Box 42; “Steps in the Organization of Section C-4 NDRC,” ibid., Box 39; NDRC, Survey of Subsurface Warfare, 21–22, 26–27.

  6. “Material Brought Back from London by Dr. Tate,” NARA, Division 6 Records, Box 59.

  7. Morse, In at the Beginnings, 29, 55, 65, 125, 134–35, 137.

  8. Ibid., 118, 137.

  9. Ibid., 16, 138, 153–55; Feshbach, “Philip McCord Morse,” 250.

  10. Morse, In at the Beginnings, 170.

  11. Telephone interview with Wilder D. Baker, Jr., July 2, 2011.

  12. “Resume of AntiSubmarine Operations Against the German U-Boats in World War II,” p. 2, Folder: Tenth Fleet, NARA, Tenth Fleet: Subject Files, Box 34.

  13. “Formation and Organisation of Naval Operational Research Department,” PRO, ADM 1/20113; Lovell, “Blackett in War and Peace,” 224.

  14. “Memorandum for Rear Admiral J. A. Furer, U.S.N., March 16, 1942; Subject: Formation of Statistical and Analytical Groups Under AntiSubmarine Warfare Unit,” ASWORG, Review of Activity, 48.

  15. “From: Atlantic Fleet AntiSubmarine Warfare Officer, To: Coordinator of Research and Development (Secretary’s Office); Subject: Records and Analyses of Antisubmarine Warfare, March 16, 1942,” ASWORG, Review of Activity, 45–47.

  16. Morse, In at the Beginnings, 174.

  17. “Organization Report of NDRC Operational Research Group with the U.S. Navy A.S.W. Committee, April 2, 1942,” Folder: ASW General Organization, NARA, Tenth Fleet: Subject Files, Box 24; “ASWORG Personnel,” ASWORG, Review of Activity, 59–60; Horvath and Ernst, “Morse: A Remembrance,” 8; Hickman and Heacox, “Actuaries.”

  18. Love, “Ernest Joseph King,” 140.

  19. Buell, Master of Sea Power, 123.

  20. Ibid., 146.

  21. Ibid., 124, 222–23.

  22. Ibid., 284, 521; Cohen and Gooch, Military Misfortunes, 85.

  23. Cohen and Gooch, Military Misfortunes, 78–79; Craven and Cate, eds., Army Air Forces, 1:528–30.

  24. Layton et al., “And I Was There,” 140.

  25. PRO, ADM 223/286.

  26. “A Study of the U-Boat Campaign, Atlantic Fleet ASW Unit,” p. 6, Folder 6: The U/B Campaign, NARA, Tenth Fleet: ASW Series II; “Atlantic Theater 1942, Op-16-C, January 12, 1943,” ibid.; Meigs, Slide Rules and Submarines, 53.

  27. Miller, War at Sea, 306.

  28. Buell, Master of Sea Power, 289–90.

  29. “From: The Secretary, Operational Proposals Board, To: Captain Wilder D. Baker, Subject: Antisubmarine Warfare—Suggestion and Criticisms from the Public Regarding, General Classes Of, June 1, 1942,” Folder: ASW General Organization, NARA, Tenth Fleet: Subject Files, Box 24.

  30. Van der Vat, Atlantic Campaign, 347.

  31. Tarrant, U-Boat Offensive, 106–7.

  32. Cohen and Gooch, Military Misfortunes, 87.

  33. Padfield, Dönitz, 241.

  34. “Resume of AntiSubmarine Operations Against the German U-Boats in World War II,” p. 9, Folder: Tenth Fleet, NARA, Tenth Fleet: Subject Files, Box 34; Meigs, Slide Rules and Submarines, 53.

  35. “Memorandum of Conference Between Representatives of the Atlantic Fleet ASW Unit and Representatives of the Commander-in-Chief, United States Fleet, ASW Unit, April 28, 1942,” Folder: ASW General Organization, NARA, Tenth Fleet: Subject Files, Box 24.

  36. “Memorandum for: Admiral King, June 24, 1942, The Battle of the Atlantic Is Being Lost,” Folder: AntiSubmarine Measures (Appreciation & Summary), NARA, Tenth Fleet: Subject Files, Box 27.

  37. Morse, In at the Beginnings,
176–77.

  38. “Preliminary Report on the Submarine Search Problem, May 1, 1942,” Folder: Submarines B, NARA, Records of Edward L. Bowles.

  39. Morse, In at the Beginnings, 179–80.

  40. “Comments on the Organization of Operations Research by Philip M. Morse,” pp. 1–2, Folder: A10(12). FX-40 Miscellaneous Publications, 1942, NARA, Tenth Fleet: Subject Files, Box 2.

  41. “Instructions for ASWORG Members, December 1, 1942,” p. 1, Folder 27: N.D.R.C. & A.S.W.O.R.G. (Organization), NARA, Tenth Fleet: ASW Series II.

  42. “From: Lieutenant Commander A. B. Vosseller, To: The Commanding Officer, Atlantic Fleet AntiSubmarine Warfare Unit, Subject: Report on Inspection Trip, April 13, 1942,” Folder: ASW General Organization, NARA, Tenth Fleet: Subject Files, Box 24; “Base Assignments,” Appendix E, ASWORG, Review of Activity, 61; Morse, In at the Beginnings, 180–81.

  43. ASWORG, Review of Activity, 10.

  44. Smyth, “Oral History of Dr. Ralph Beatty, Jr.,” 57; “Progress Report Covering Period September 15–October 15, 1941,” p. 1, Folder 27: N.D.R.C. & A.S.W.O.R.G. (Organization), NARA, Tenth Fleet: ASW Series II.

  45. Brinkley, Washington Goes to War, 106, 241–43.

  46. ASWORG, Review of Activity, 22–27.

  47. Morse, In at the Beginnings, 182. “Memoranda (Reports) Prepared by ASW Operations Research Group, Sec. 6.1, NDRC Coordinating with AntiSubmarine Forces—U.S. Army and Navy,” Folder 27: N.D.R.C. & A.S.W.O.R.G. (Organization), NARA, Tenth Fleet: ASW Series II, has a list of all ASWORG reports and the abstract for Report No. 11 notes: “A quantitative treatment of the problem along these lines was reported in the British ORS/CC/5/S Report #142.” Exactly when the ASWORG scientists became aware of the British report is not clear.

  48. “Progress Report Covering Period September 15–October 15, 1941,” p. 1, Folder 27: N.D.R.C. & A.S.W.O.R.G. (Organization), NARA, Tenth Fleet: ASW Series II.

  49. “Tentative Doctrine for AntiSubmarine Warfare by Aircraft, October 17, 1942,” Folder: A16(2) FX-40, Procedures, Attacks, Aircraft (Doctrines, Tactics, etc.), 1941–42, NARA, Tenth Fleet: Subject Files, Box 3.

  9. Closing the Gaps

  1. Morison, History of Naval Operations, 1:241; Craven and Cate, eds., Army Air Forces, 1:537.

  2. Bennett, Behind the Battle, 154; Mark, Aerial Interdiction, 230.

  3. Ray, Night Blitz, 105.