THE FORESIGHT WAR

by Anthony G Williams

  ‘What about threats and weaknesses?’ Chairman sounded a little sour and Don guessed that he did not enjoy being displaced by Churchill.

  ‘The main weakness is that we are not yet strong enough to contemplate invasions of Northern Europe from England or Norway, so we can’t grapple directly with Germany. Furthermore, we’re unlikely to become so without American help, and we can’t guarantee that that will arrive. The most obvious threat is, of course, to our maritime trade. The bombing raids on the ports are causing major supply difficulties and, although we’ve managed to restrict the shipping losses so far, the new electroboats are appearing in numbers now, and are becoming a serious problem. In fact, if we can’t defeat them then we won’t be able to invade Northern Europe even with American help, because it would be too dangerous to transport across the Atlantic all of the American troops, equipment and supplies we will need.’

  Churchill grunted. ‘I’ll leave that question until last.’ He turned to Creamed Curls. ‘Haven’t we got the measure of the Nazi bombers yet?’

  ‘They don’t come in daylight anymore; they’ve found it too expensive. Their night attacks come in a few distinct patterns. First, there are the small-scale raids on our radar systems. These have become more problematical lately because they seem to have invented some sort of long-range air-launched missile. We suspect it homes in on radar transmitters. Certainly we’ve lost a few early-warning Wellingtons in the last month. Then there are the large-scale raids on docks, railway marshalling yards and military production plants by the big Heinkels and Dorniers, led in by pathfinders. These have occasionally caused significant civilian casualties, but that appears to be accidental. Finally there are the individual mining runs, what we call ‘gardening’, over our port approaches.’

  Churchill glowered at him. ‘You haven’t answered my question!’

  Creamed curls continued hastily. ‘All of the old Blenheim night-fighters have been replaced with Mosquitos, and they’re scoring heavily. What’s more, they have the range to go over to the Continent and attack the German planes around their own airfields. Unfortunately, the German night-fighters are returning the compliment around our fields, as well as accompanying their bomber streams. Basically, it’s a war of attrition. The Luftwaffe is suffering much higher losses than the RAF, but our transport system is taking a pounding.’

  ‘What about our own bombing?’

  ‘The Luftwaffe night-fighters have great difficulty in catching the Mosquito, and with the help of the new navigational aids we’re having no problems in continuing a steady programme of precision attacks on industrial and military plants. The trouble is, the bomb load is rather small. The new Avro Manchester is flight testing at the moment and is expected to be in service by the end of the year.’ He smiled as Don raised an eyebrow. ‘Not the same plane as the one in your time. This one is streamlined and carries no defensive armament. It has four highly-supercharged Merlins and carries a crew of four in a pressurised compartment. It can reach forty thousand feet and nearly four hundred miles an hour.’

  For once, Churchill looked impressed. ‘Given a fleet of these bombers, and taking into account our continued blockade of Europe, what chance do we have of defeating Germany by economic means?’

  Diplomat stirred in his chair. ‘There’s no doubt that we can do a lot of damage and cause shortages of certain strategic raw materials as well as food, and this might help to stimulate unrest in occupied countries. There is a limit to how draconian our blockade can be; we wouldn’t want to antagonise Portugal or Spain, and deliveries there can make their way to Germany. And, of course, we can do nothing about supplies from the Soviet Union. The consensus is that with the newly conquered territories the Germans will be able to adapt and find substitutes. We just have to keep identifying these and bombing their production plants wherever possible.’

  ‘Very well, then, what about other ways of taking the war to the enemy? We have all these fighter planes and soldiers standing around in England; they might be better employed attacking the coast of Europe.’

  Don intervened hastily. ‘The difficulty with launching significant attacks on the coast is that the Germans will be stimulated into improving their defences and thereby making it harder for us to invade later on. And sending fighters over to seek combat won’t achieve much except losing valuable aircraft and pilots. It would be much better to send any spare armoured units or fighter squadrons overseas where they really are needed; we have no modern tanks or aircraft in the Far East at all.’

  Creamed Curls looked agitated. ‘We must keep an adequate reserve of Spitfire squadrons in England to dissuade daylight attacks, or even renewed plans for an invasion.’

  ‘Granted. But we have far more than is necessary for that. Besides, we would have ample warning of renewed invasion plans. The vast quantity of barges and other craft would be obvious as soon as they began to be assembled. It seems pretty clear from all the intelligence reports that Hitler is now focusing on Russia.’

  Churchill looked speculatively around the Committee. ‘Let’s consider the Far East for a moment. Do you think our defensive plans are adequate?’

  Military Man nodded. ‘I think so. We have built new airstrips on both Singapore island and in Malaya, the latter well away from the coast so they can’t easily be seized by amphibious assault. They are all fully equipped with dispersal pens and other facilities. Likely invasion points, as well as the landward side of Singapore Island, are receiving field fortifications ready for emplacing artillery as required. Needless to say, the big guns are being modified and equipped with far more HE shells so they can help with landward defence.’

  ‘What about the equipment?’

  ‘We have started to ship heavy artillery over already and are planning for three armoured divisions by the end of the year, as well as seven infantry divisions. I should add that we are rapidly building up towards our target of ten armoured and forty infantry divisions overall, with improved equipment and the new main battle tank at an advanced stage of development. We are expecting India, Australia and New Zealand to provide a lot of the troops in the Far East.’

  ‘How well equipped do you think they are to help us?’

  ‘The Prime Minister will recall the Dominion Production Plans which we instigated,’ interposed Diplomat. ‘Australia is producing Hercules engines and Brigand, Hampden and Hereford aircraft to use them. They are also preparing to produce a range of small arms and the Crusader series of armoured vehicles. We don’t think that bigger tanks will be necessary in the Far East.’

  ‘Incidentally,’ added Creamed Curls,’ Canada is already producing Merlin engines and Spitfires, Reapers and Mosquitos.’

  ‘How many aircraft will be based at Singapore?’

  ‘We estimate a need for around thirty squadrons in Singapore and Malaya; about one third devoted to each of fighter defence, fighter-bombers and medium bombers.’

  ‘I’ll see that they’re there by the Autumn. We don’t want to repeat the catastrophe of Dr Erlang’s time.’ He turned to Ruddy-face. ‘What do you think the Navy should be providing?’

  ‘We can manage to send quite a lot. We lost some good ships in the North Sea last year but all of the new battleships and fleet aircraft carriers are now in service, and with the Italian and French navies removed as a threat and Germany possessing only a handful of ships bigger than destroyers, we face no real opposition in Europe. We should be able to send a large modern fleet whenever it’s required, leaving the older ships in Europe to support amphibious landings and so forth. In addition, production of the new cruisers, light aircraft carriers, frigates, destroyers and corvettes is keeping up with demands, although of course it will be a different matter if Japan attacks us.’

  ‘What about India?’

  ‘There is some concern about the activities of Nehru and the Congress Party,’ admitted Diplomat. ‘I appreciate that independence is on the way, but we can’t afford to lose them while we know that we will have Japan to deal with. W
ithout India, we could never hold Malaya, Burma and Singapore against the Japanese and our communications with Australia and New Zealand would be jeopardised. India is also producing large numbers of troops.’

  ‘Are you proposing to warn the Americans?’ Don enquired.

  Churchill regarded him thoughtfully. ‘We have given them our considered opinion that Japan will attack both our forces and theirs by the end of the year. We have not yet told them about you. We have to be careful or they will just think we are trying to drag them into our war. I don’t have to tell you that while Roosevelt is sympathetic, there is a strong isolationist sentiment in Congress. It is clear that they will not declare war on anyone unless they are attacked first. If they knew about you, they might become so alarmed that they would take diplomatic action to avoid the war with Japan. That would not be in our interests at all; it would be a disaster if Japan just attacked us.

  So far, our efforts are concerned with persuading them to build military equipment for us. We could manage without it, but our orders are helping the Americans to build up their military production ready for when they will need it. Now,’ he said with evident anticipation, ‘let’s turn to the Mediterranean. What’s your view of the options?’

  ‘We could invade Sicily and then go on to Italy, but it would take all of our offensive strength and the outcome would be uncertain as the Germans would inevitably become sucked in. You will recall that we couldn’t hold Greece even after becoming established there. In my time, even with substantial American forces it was a long, hard battle. It would be better to choose a theatre where the Germans can’t send land forces to, at least until the Wehrmacht is fully locked in to the Russian invasion.’

  Churchill grunted irritably. ‘That would exclude the Balkans as well. That only leaves us the Middle East. Syria is now ours, along with the rest of the French and Italian Empires, which gives us borders with Persia and Turkey, both of which also have borders with the USSR. If we’re going to be helping the Russians, we need as many routes to them as possible.’

  ‘Turkey would be difficult,’ said Diplomat hastily. ‘Now the Germans control Greece and Bulgaria on their western border, they will not be willing to join us in case of attack. Persia would be much safer. It would also provide a direct land link between India and the Middle East’

  Churchill nodded, and turned to Ruddy-face. ‘Now, what about the convoys?’

  The old naval officer sighed and Don suddenly saw how worried he was. ‘The new electroboats are proving a real handful,’ he said slowly. ‘The older boats have such limited underwater speed and range that they have to approach convoys on the surface, which makes them vulnerable. The new U-boats are so fast underwater and have such a long range, that they can catch a convoy without ever being spotted except when they come up to periscope depth. That’s their only point of weakness.’

  ‘Do we have the measure of them?’

  ‘No.’

  The Prime Minister nodded grimly. ‘I feared as much. Then all the rest of this theorising could be pointless. If we can’t defeat the U-boat scourge, we won’t defeat Germany.’

  CHAPTER 5 - ATLANTIC

  Spring 1941

  Herrman had been thankful to return to Berlin from the claustrophobic atmosphere of the Führersonderzug in its Austrian mountain hideaway. The weather was still cold but there was the tang of spring in the air for the first time, and Berlin was surprisingly normal after ten months of war. No bombers had yet disturbed its sense of security and Herrman wondered briefly why the British were so carefully avoiding civilian targets; they had not been so scrupulous in his time. The war seemed to be proceeding in measured steps, more like a formal fencing match instead of the usual chaotic street brawl.

  Even the the Kriegsherr, Hitler himself, and the OKW were playing a careful tactical game, always trying to outguess the British, even turning to Herrman from time to time to ask, what would he do, if he were Churchill’s mysterious adviser? Herrman could never be sure. He had often tried to think himself into his opponent’s shoes, sometimes with success, but the Britisher’s experience, concerns and priorities would be so very different from his own.

  This morning’s meeting was mainly turning into another round of the perennial struggle between Göring and Raeder, ostensibly about the most sensible organisational arrangements for maritime aviation but actually, in the Reichsmarschall’s case at least, about personal status and prestige. Hitler observed noncommitally while Brauchitsch was thankful to stay quietly in the background.

  ‘Right from the start the Kriegsmarine opposed the formation of the Luftwaffe,’ argued Göring scornfully, ‘all you are doing is trying to win the same old battle. To divide control of the Luftwaffe will inevitably weaken it and cause a loss in operational flexibility. I have already appointed a Fliegerfürher Atlantik to oversee our maritime squadrons; what more can you ask?’

  Raeder was coolly logical, as always in the face of Göring’s bluster. ‘There are not enough long-range planes made available to do the job of locating convoys for the U-boats. They are hunting blind and often spend an entire patrol with never a sight of a ship.’

  ‘What, even your precious Elektroboote?’

  ‘Even them,’ the Grossadmiral responded firmly, ‘they are wolves among sheep when they find a convoy, but first they have to find it.’

  ‘My bombers are much better employed hitting British trade where it can’t escape: in the ports, dockyards and warehouses. It doesn’t matter how many ships reach England if they are sunk at their moorings and their goods destroyed before they can be distributed.’

  ‘One squadron of bombers more or less will make little difference to the degree of destruction you can inflict. It would make all the difference to our chances of locating ships at sea.’

  ‘Everything that flies is mine! That is an unalienable principle!’ As always, Göring fell back on bluster. Herrman suddenly became uncomfortably aware that Hitler was eyeing him sardonically. He knew what that meant. He cleared his throat, bringing a glare from Göring and an icy stare from Raeder.

  ‘The important task is to sink ships as quickly as possible, however that can be achieved,’ he temporised. ‘If ships are sunk at a faster rate than replacements can be built for long enough, we will win. And if the total volume of goods reaching England can be kept below a certain level, England will starve. Even if that level is not quite achieved, getting close to it will mean that Britain will have no spare shipping capacity for armaments; it will all be needed for food.’

  ‘And what are those critical figures?’ enquired Göring .

  ‘I don’t know,’ muttered Herrman. ‘My specialities were in land and air warfare, I don’t remember the details of the naval war.’

  ‘Britain was importing 60 million tons of goods per year before the war, including half of her food needs,’ remarked Raeder. ‘We are certainly keeping the figure well below that now. And we estimate that America and Britain have a combined merchant shipbuilding capacity of about 700,000 tons per month; so we have to sink more than that.’

  The Reichsmarshall suddenly changed tack. ‘Very well,’ he said expansively, ‘I will assign another squadron of Dorniers to the Fliegerfürher Atlantik. I look forward to seeing the British brought to their knees very soon.’

  Raeder glowered and Herrman realised that Göring had won again; while appearing to be magnanimous, he had kept his Luftwaffe firmly under his control. A squadron granted could be withdrawn again just as quickly.

  The Fürher decided to take a hand. ‘I am concerned about resources for our attack on Russia. We now know,’ with a nod to Herrman, ‘that while initial victories will be easy, finishing off the Russian bear will take longer than we otherwise might expect. On no account must our troops run short of vehicles and equipment; the factories must be going full blast from now until we have finally won.’

  Raeder realised that he was being attacked from a different quarter. ‘We must increase the production of Type Ten Elektroboote
,’ he almost pleaded. ‘We achieved our target of three hundred U-boats at the start of the war but these were nearly all Type Sevens or coastal boats. They suffered so badly at the hands of the strong British escorts that we had to withdraw them to the North Sea. The Type Tens have the upper hand but the assembly yards are being pounded virtually every night and their training grounds in the Baltic are mined just as frequently. If we are to win this battle we must have more Elektroboote reaching the Atlantic; that means more production efforts and more guns and night-fighters defending the yards. At the moment we are only building fifteen each month; this must be doubled.’

  Göring decided to rub salt in the wound. ‘Fortunately, our bombers have also been engaged in mining the approaches to the British ports. Our latest mines are triggered by a combination of magnetic and acoustic fuses which are almost impossible to fool, and we are working on something even better; one which reacts to the rise in water pressure as a ship goes overhead!’ He beamed triumphantly. ‘I am reliably informed that more ships are being sunk by my mines than are falling to your submarines!’

  ‘And what,’ interposed Hitler, ‘about the risks if the anti-shipping campaign is too successful? It is our one strategy which really infuriates the Americans. I hear that they are now helping to escort the convoys. If we start sinking American warships we could find ourselves at war with them, and that must not happen; we must deal with Russia first!’