THE FORESIGHT WAR

by Anthony G Williams

  ‘To avoid that, we need a quick victory, before Roosevelt can steer public opinion against us. Should we not also defeat the British before taking on the Russians?’ Raeder, Herrman reflected, obviously felt that he had nothing more to lose.

  Hitler waved dismissively. ‘Ideally yes, but the forces required to fight them are substantially different. The only conflict is over the disposition of bomber aircraft and they are now flowing from the production lines.’ He turned to Herrman. ‘Remind me, did the U-boats of your time still rely on batteries?’

  Herrman felt the tension growing and answered carefully. ‘Yes, my Fürher. Refined of course, but with no wars, development slowed right down. The Walter turbine was a dead end – the oxidant was too unstable.’ Hitler nodded and Herrman breathed an inward sigh of relief. Strictly speaking he hadn’t even been lying; the German navy of his time had not aspired to nuclear submarines. Somehow, he didn’t think the Nazis would appreciate the distinction. For the thousandth time, he wrestled with the spectre of nuclear war; was he right to withold information from the Nazis if the British, and through them the Russians, were working to make nuclear bombs? Might this war be even more catastrophic to Europe than the devastation he remembered? If only he knew what the British were doing!

  The U240 ploughed through the North Sea in the pre-dawn gloom, the watch crew mentally preparing themselves for the order to submerge as the light grew. The Oberleutnant braced himself against the side of the low conning tower as yet another blast of spray hit them. Beneath his feet the big diesels rumbled steadily, sucking fresh air down the hatch and through the boat. He was well aware that darkness was no guarantee of safety, with the British patrol aircraft all fitted with radar, but he had some confidence that the Metox radar warning receiver would give him time to crash dive before being spotted.

  He waited for as long as possible before diving. While his boat was an old-fashioned Type VIIC, it was fitted with a schnorkel so that the diesels could keep running underwater, preserving battery power until it was needed. Even so, once submerged the boat’s speed would be cut and, worse still, his visibility limited to the constricted view through a periscope. An added irritation in such a rough sea was that the schnorkel head would keep dipping beneath the waves, causing the air supply to be shut off. The diesels would then promptly suck air from the crew compartment, sharply dropping the air pressure until the schnorkel surfaced, whereupon the air pressure would shoot up again. This did not, he reflected wryly, lead to a happy crew.

  Less than two miles away, nemesis raced towards him. The Coastal Command Hampden bored in at low level, the radar operator tracking the clear blip of the submarine in his screen and shouting commands to the pilot. The new centimetric radar gave a precise bearing and worked on a wavelength too short to be detected by Metox. At a final shout, the Leigh light switched on, the brilliant beam outlining the U-boat dead ahead.

  The Oberleutnant screamed commands at his crew as his mind spun with calculations; thirty seconds to dive, too late on this pass; fight the plane now, dive the instant it was past. How the hell had it found them? Why had the Metox given no warning? The 2 cm and 3,7 cm cannon opened up, sending a stream of tracer toward the racing plane. At the same instant, flame rippled from under the wings and small dark shapes sped towards the submarine. The rockets peppered the area like a shotgun blast, splashing into the sea and flashing overhead. One of the gunners suddenly shouted in triumph and the Oberleutnant could hardly believe his luck as he saw the plane turn away, flame streaming from an engine. He turned to yell congratulations to the gunners but was interrupted by an urgent shout from below. He scrambled down the ladder then stopped as he realised the problem. One rocket had neatly pierced the base of the conning tower, wrecking the lower hatch. The boat could not submerge.

  The destroyer raced towards the coordinates radioed by the stricken Hampden. An S Class of First War vintage, she had been deemed too small for Atlantic duty and assigned to the East Coast. But not, reflected her commander happily, before being equipped for her task. Torpedo tubes had been landed and replaced with Squid anti-submarine mortars; the old 4 inch guns likewise gave way to automatic 57 mm Bofors, far more effective against aircraft and E-boats, and even against submarines when firing the armour-piercing anti-tank rounds. A battery of Oerlikons and last but not least a suite of Asdic and radar made her a devastating coastal combatant.

  ‘Target dead ahead; range ten thousand.’ He acknowledged the radar report and waited. The crew was already at action stations, excitement rising at this climax to an uneventful patrol. Dawn broke, sihouetting the unmistakable shape of a U-boat hurrying south-east back to base.

  ‘Range six thousand.’

  ‘Open fire!’ Almost simultaneously he saw a flash from the submarine’s deck as the main armament fired. In theory the U-boat’s 8,8 cm gun was much more powerful than the Bofors; in practice, accurate shooting was difficult from a submarine and the stream of Bofors shells swept the German crew off the deck before the destroyer could be hit.

  ‘He’s not submerging!’

  The lieutenant-commander grinned wolfishly. The U-boat must have a problem. Too bad, it couldn’t outrun his ship! As the range closed rapidly his instinct was to ram, but that would mean weeks in a dockyard being repaired… ‘Set Squid fuses to minimum depth!’ He barely heard the acknowledgement, concentrating hard on the fleeing submarine. Squid was normally fired automatically by the associated Asdic set; as the sub was surfaced he would have to do it by eye.

  ‘Fire!’ A massive, multiple thud shook the ship and three huge black canisters soared over his head towards the U-boat nearly 300 yards away. They appeared to bracket the sub and there was a brief silence before the sea suddenly heaved and burst, obliterating the target. As the spray settled, the lieutenant-commander could see the U-boat heeled over, the bows slowly rising.

  ‘Slow ahead both. Prepare to pick up survivors.’

  There were not very many.

  ‘Before we start this meeting,’ announced Churchill, ‘I have been advised that we need to clarify the status of this Oversight Committee, particularly now we have changed the membership.’ He paused and looked around at the group; only Don Erlang and Charles Dunning remained, the others being replaced by Don’s long-standing military intelligence liaison officers ‘to keep it tight’ as Churchill had said. Mary Baker was also present, ostensibly to take the minutes but in fact as the result of a brief campaign which the others had realised from the start they stood no chance of winning.

  ‘Up to now it has been entirely unofficial and outside the normal structure. In view of the sensitive, if not sensational, nature of its business,’ this said with a sardonic glance at Don, ‘I still want to keep it secret and separate from other policy and operational committees such as the Joint Intelligence Sub-Committee or the Chief of Staffs Committee. I see your role as more of a personal advisory panel and accordingly this Committee will form a third top-level military committee alongside the Defence Committees for Operations and Supply, although for obvious reasons you won’t appear on any published committee structure. Minutes of the meetings will go only to me. Any questions?’

  There were none.

  ‘Very well, I want to turn our attention to the Battle of the Atlantic. We all know that this is the battle that we cannot afford to lose, and I have set up a separate Battle of the Atlantic Committee to coordinate and review operations. The key factor is maintaining our imports at an acceptable level. Tremendous efforts have been made to reduce our needs, with metals being reused and virtually every available open space dug up for crops. However, we still need to import around twelve million tons of food per annum and a similar quantity of oil. Overall, we need not far short of thirty million tons to survive and have so far managed to achieve this. Assuming that America enters the war and we stage a joint invasion of Europe, their troops, equipment and supplies will generate additional shipping needs. I am not lacking in facts about the progress of the battle, but I want yo
u to produce ideas about what we can do to ensure our victory. Who’s going to start?’ Churchill leaned back, puffing as usual at a large cigar.

  Charles took up the challenge. ‘Winning the battle is a complex problem. We need to do four things; reduce the number of sinkings, build more merchant ships to ensure that we keep ahead of the sinking rates, make better use of the shipping capacity we have by ensuring that the right cargoes are heading in the right directions, and reduce delays at sea and in port to make more use of the ships.’

  ‘I know all that,’ Churchill interrupted, ‘the last three points are all being adequately dealt with by others. It’s the first problem which concerns me; how can we sink more of these U-boats in order to keep our losses down?’

  ‘Sinking U-boats is actually the least important matter.’ Don said; Churchill made a disbelieving noise. ‘No, it’s true. We just have to stop U-boats sinking ships. There are several ways we can do this;’ he began to count on his fingers, ‘in the first instance, we need to reduce the number being built. The new Type Tens are prefabricated inland, with the sections brought to the dockyards for assembly. That means hitting the transport links as well as the dockyards.’

  ‘We’re doing that already,’ Peter Morgan said quietly. ‘It isn’t easy. The Germans have concentrated their air defences around the dockyards and other key targets, and hitting them is increasingly expensive. Even the Mosquitos are suffering heavy losses.’

  ‘I know, but it’s vital to keep at it. The second stage is to prevent the boats reaching operational readiness by mining their training areas in the Baltic. The third is to prevent them from reaching the Atlantic by laying minefields and flying frequent air patrols in the Channel and the North Sea. The fourth is to hit them in their French harbours and, again, mine the approach routes to them. The fifth is to use intelligence data to route convoys around known U-boat concentrations, the sixth is to keep them submerged by maintaining long-range air patrols, which will reduce their speed and vision, and the seventh is to distract them with carrier-based planes and naval escorts if they do reach a convoy. If we manage to sink some U-boats in the process, all well and good, but that’s a bonus. The important aim is to stop the U-boats from attacking so we can get those ships across with minimum losses.’

  ‘How do our losses compare with shipbuilding rates?’ Geoffrey Taylor enquired.

  ‘So far, we’re winning,’ Harold Johnson chipped in. ‘We’re losing half a million tons per month, rising steadily as more of those electroboats come into service. Thanks to the mass-production techniques of the American shipyards we’re building at around twice that rate, with the potential to build over one and a half million tons each month. The danger is that our losses are rising at a faster rate than our construction. If nothing happens to stop the trend, in a few months time the curves will cross and we will start to lose the war.’

  Churchill nodded. ‘Roosevelt has managed to deliver the Lend-Lease agreement and we have focused all our requests on new merchant shipping. Until now we’ve been paying for the ships by giving them naval bases in our colonies, but at least that means we don’t have to divert our efforts into defending them.’

  ‘After the convoy system, air cover is the main ingredient in dealing with submarines at sea,’ said Don. ‘I’ve been looking at the records of the Great War. After May nineteen-seventeen when the convoy system was adopted, only two hundred and fifty ships were sunk out of eighty-four thousand sailing in convoys; and only five were sunk by U-boats when air cover was present as well. This will still hold true even with more advanced technology.’

  ‘So what are the priorities in increasing air cover?’

  ‘Dr Erlang’s prewar proposal for the Merchant Aircraft Carriers was invaluable,’ replied Johnson. ‘We had the materials available to convert a dozen large bulk carriers, mainly tankers, at the start of the war, and now have three dozen in service. Not a convoy sails without at least one of them, and their aircraft have proved highly effective at keeping enemy bombers and the older U-boats at bay, but are having problems with the new electroboats. To deal with them we need as many Sunderland and Warwick long-range maritime patrol aircraft as we can get, fitted with the latest weapons and detection equipment.’

  Morgan shifted uneasily. ‘But we desperately need as many heavy bombers as possible to carry out the raids on dockyards and other military targets in Germany and France. The Mosquito is a superb aircraft but it can’t carry the heaviest bombs. We’re developing some five-ton monsters which could easily be carried by those Warwicks, but Coastal Command has priority for them.’

  ‘Bomber Command believes that Coastal Command activities are a waste of time,’ remarked Churchill. ‘All that swanning around and hardly ever seeing anything. I’m inclined to agree with them; at least with bombing raids the public can see that we are hitting back.’

  Don sat up in some alarm. ‘What can’t be known is the number of U-boat missions which are disrupted by the subs having to dive whenever they see or hear an aircraft. That can be just as valuable as a sinking. Anyway, the Warwick isn’t suitable; it’s designed for flying low and slow. Wait for the Manchester; that’s due to start reaching the squadrons in the summer and it can carry the five-ton bomb with ease.’

  ‘What resources does Coastal Command have at present?’ asked Charles.

  ‘Ten squadrons of Sunderlands, slowly increasing,’ answered Morgan, ‘a similar number of Warwicks, including those based at Keflavik in Iceland, and another dozen squadrons of Wellingtons, although these are gradually being replaced by Warwicks. To cover the North Sea, the Channel and the Western Approaches there are twenty-two squadrons of Hampdens, some based in Norway, some in Ireland. They can be used for torpedo attacks as well as anti-sub work.’

  ‘How many U-boats are slipping through the North Sea net?’ Don enquired.

  ‘Our best estimate is that two-thirds get through,’ replied Johnson. ‘There’s a vicious little war going on in the North Sea, with E-boats and aircraft joining in. We’ve lost half of our fishing catch because of attacks on the fishing fleet, and had to stop much of the east coast shipping traffic.’

  Charles nodded, his expression wry. ‘Don’t I know it! That’s causing major problems for the railways; they’re not structured to move goods in those directions, so this is causing all sorts of bottlenecks.’

  ‘I’m still worried about the availability of anti-submarine warships,’ said Churchill. ‘I have to say I wanted to take up the American offer of fifty old destroyers, but you insisted that they wouldn’t have been worth it.’

  ‘They really weren’t suitable,’ agreed Johnson. ‘We would have had to replace all their equipment and even then they wouldn’t have been anywhere near as good as our corvettes. For the same reason we rejected the offer from smaller shipyards to mass-produce the whalecatcher design. It was simply too slow and too small to carry the weapons needed to cope with the electroboats. On the other hand, they’re now producing a lengthened version with much more accommodation to act as convoy rescue vessels.’

  ‘Poor quality warships are of little use,’ added Don, ‘in fact they’re worse than useless because they take up precious resources to build and man. It’s the same argument we applied to aircraft and tanks. Just building big numbers is no good if they only cost us lives and reduce the men’s faith in success.’

  Churchill raised his hands. ‘All right, all right, I’ve heard you before. But I still think that any ship is better than none.’

  ‘We have about a hundred and twenty escorts in service, mostly Hunt-class corvettes,’ commented Johnson, ‘and are building more at a rate of one a week. In addition we have a similar number of destroyers and although the build rate is much lower, many more are being released for escort duties now that the invasion threat has receded. We already have enough escorts to cover the convoys and we’re beginning to form hunting groups centred on the new escort carriers.’

  Churchill’s face lit up. ‘Good!’ I have to confe
ss that I have little sympathy with this defensive strategy of tying escorts down to the convoys. They should be out hunting submarines! We should also be using our fleet carriers to put an end to this menace.’

  Don interrupted hastily. ‘It’s much too dangerous to risk fleet carriers in chasing submarines. The new escort carriers are designed for the task. They’re small and very cheap because they’re based on merchant ship hulls. And linking escorts to convoys is the best way of hunting U-boats; convoys attract them like wasps to a jam-pot. Even the hunting groups will accompany convoys, but they will have the flexibility to spend time in following up contacts.’

  Churchill changed tack. ‘What’s this I’ve been hearing about a sudden increase in sinkings of escorts?’

  Don pulled a face. ‘It sounds as if the GNAT has arrived.’ Quizzical looks. ‘German Naval Acoustic Torpedo. They called it the Zaunkönig. Designed for firing by U-boats when submerged and being hunted. It homes in on the propeller noise of the escorts.’

  ‘What are we doing about it?’

  ‘We’ve already done it. Escorts are being equipped with Foxer; it’s a towed decoy which makes more noise than the propellers.’

  Johnson nodded. ‘The trouble is it hinders sub-hunting so it’s not popular with the captains. These sinkings are beginning to drive the message home, though. Tell me, Prime Minister; when can we expect to obtain bases in the Azores?’

  Churchill grunted. ‘We’re working on it. The truthful answer is that Portugal will decide to abide by our ancient treaty when she sees that Germany can’t win. That’s not likely before the Americans come in.’

  ‘I worry about that,’ admitted Don. ‘Hitler’s declaration of war against the USA was so quixotic and counterproductive that I simply can’t see him making the same mistake again. And if he doesn’t, the Americans may ignore Europe altogether and concentrate on beating the Japanese.’