The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia's New Geopolitics
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
This book could not have been written without the help of a great number of friends, family, colleagues, supporters, and sources.
I would first like to thank my colleagues at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, especially on the Asia team, who gave me the time and space to complete the manuscript over the last year amid all the day-to-day demands of a busy think-tank, and were a tremendous source of ideas, contacts, and practical assistance. I am hugely indebted to Craig Kennedy for all his support and advice over the years, and to Dan Twining for our fantastic partnership on the Asia program. Other colleagues at GMF have also been a great help. Dhruva Jaishankar read sections of the manuscript and opened many doors in New Delhi—the opportunity to discuss these topics with K. Subrahmanyam and Brajesh Mishra in the same day was particularly memorable. Yuxi Zhao was a phenomenal research assistant, tracing sources, translating material, cross-checking footnotes, and tracking down every imaginable book and article. Sophie Dembinski worked tirelessly through late nights and weekends on editing, footnoting, and trouble-shooting in the final stages of the writing process. Wenxin Lin and Charles Goodyear helped with the glossary and acronyms. Louise Langeby was a valued travelling companion and intellectual partner in Pakistan. My bosses at GMF—Ian Lesser, Enders Wimbush, and Ivan Vejvoda—gave me the backing I needed at different stages in the process. And I’m also grateful to my other colleagues on the Asia program—Sharon Stirling-Woolsey and Dan Kliman—and to many in GMF’s Brussels office, including Corinna Horst and the late, still-missed Ron Asmus.
Many of the trips, seminars and conferences that fed into the work also took place under the auspices of GMF and its partners. Most important of these has been the Stockholm China Forum, generously supported by the Swedish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, and jointly managed with my friend and collaborator Borje Ljunggren. GMF’s Pakistan Paris workshops, organized with Frederic Grare during his time at the French Ministry of Defence, were also a very helpful input. The earliest work I did on the subject was sparked by comments at a GMF event by Bob Zoellick, without which I might never have embarked on this research in the first place. Under the leadership of Craig Kennedy, and now Karen Donfried, GMF has been a wonderful home for me for the past eight years and continues to go from strength to strength.
In Pakistan, Hamayoun Khan was always exceptionally kind with his time and his contacts during my visits to Islamabad; he knows Sino-Pakistani relations exceptionally well, and without his insights my understanding of the subject would have been much poorer. I would also like to convey my appreciation to Mirwais Nab—his analysis of Sino-Afghan relations and broader strategic issues, and his helpful introductions, were invaluable, from the days when we were both living in Beijing, through his stint in Kabul, and now in Washington, DC. A number of other still-serving government officials and others with official affiliations in China, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, the United States, the EU, the UK, France, and Germany have been very generous with their time and advice, most of whom I am unable to thank by name here. Without their willingness to share information and analysis, a book of this nature would have been extremely difficult to write.
I have also benefited enormously from the work of the still-relatively-small gang of individuals working on these topics in Europe and the United States. Given some of the research challenges involved, it is very helpful that it is such a mutually supportive group. On the US side, Evan Feigenbaum is the person whose thinking on the field of East Asia, South Asia, and Central Asia I have appreciated learning from most over the years, and I’m still hugely grateful for all his support and advice. I benefited greatly from being able to join a number of sessions at the Council on Foreign Relations organized by Dan Markey, who also gave me very helpful pointers after reading an early draft of the manuscript, and whose own research on the emerging issues in this field is some of the most interesting new material out there. David Sedney was a font of wisdom on Chinese policy and the strategic picture in the whole region. Barney Rubin’s recent work on Sino-US collaboration in Afghanistan and Pakistan has been hugely valuable, as have the roundtables that Jeff Payne has put together at NDU. In Europe, Raff Pantucci has been a constant source of tips, ideas and excellent analysis across a range of the issues covered in this book. Mathieu Duchatel produced some great work on Sino-Pakistani relations that I drew on during his time at Centre Asie. I met one of the European experts who has been doing some of the best work on the ground in Xinjiang and Pakistan, Alessandro Rippa, in Karimabad as the result of a tweet about tunnels while on my way up the KKH… I’m also grateful to Isaac Stonefish at Foreign Policy and Alex Lennon at the Washington Quarterly for publishing some of the more widely-circulated pieces I wrote on these subjec
ts. April Rabkin was a great partner for my first visit to Afghanistan and Eva Gross was the biggest source of encouragement for getting out there in the first place. Emma Graham-Harrison kindly shared many of her Kabul contacts with me, and Jon Boone helpfully put me in contact with fixers in Peshawar and Gilgit. In Beijing (where we still hope he will return), Chris Buckley has been a regular sounding board and source of insight for an array of China-related developments over the last decade.
As the book has come towards its later stages, I have been grateful to the various people who have helped to improve and promote it. Tanvi Madan put together a tremendously helpful workshop at Brookings, drawing on some of the chapter drafts, that pulled in many of the leading Sinologists and South Asia hands from around town, and was chaired and very generously introduced by Stephen Cohen. Ziad Haider, whose work on China and Pakistan I had admired long before I started to work in this area, was my counterpart at that event and at a number of others since—his comments and analysis have been extremely helpful and I am well aware that he could have written a better book on the subject himself. I’m also grateful to David Ignatius and Maleeha Lodhi, who took part in a session at Brussels Forum that was partly a preview for the book. The two anonymous peer reviewers also provided comments that were very helpful indeed.
This book came about thanks to the initiative of Michael Dwyer at Hurst—the day I received his intriguing voicemail message was the first point at which I considered turning my research on this subject into a monograph. I am very grateful for his approaching me with the idea and patiently shepherding me through the whole publishing process, as well as everyone else at Hurst.
The single person who has done more than anyone else to help bring the book into existence is Amy Studdart, who was involved in so many elements of the conception and execution of the whole project that they are too extensive to list—I really cannot thank her enough for her support. Mark Leonard gave me my first break in the world of foreign policy and has been a great friend and mentor ever since. His advice on all sorts of aspects on this book was invaluable. Stephanie Kleine-Ahlbrandt has been my collaborator over the last eight years of working on Chinese foreign policy and I have benefited constantly from all her insights and intelligence. Kirsty McNeill went closely through the draft text, made a running set of jokes about Gwadar, and was a wonderful friend throughout. Very special thanks are also owed to Zoe Flood, who went through multiple iterations of the book, transformed the quality of the text, and was a constant source of support and ideas from the earliest plans to the very final stages. I received many other kind offers of help from friends over the course of working on the book, not all of which I took up, but were always greatly appreciated—as was everyone’s forbearance during some of the most intense phases of the process.
Finally, my family have been an amazing source of advice and support throughout, as always. Without their love and their backing, none of this would have been possible.
INDEX
Abbottabad, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 44, 155–7, 176, 184
Abdul Bari, Maulana 78
Abdullah ibn Abdilazīz, king of Saudi Arabia 43
Abdur Rahman Khan, emir of Afghanistan 122
Abu Yahya al-Libi 87, 146
Adel, Mohammad Ibrahim 119
Aden, Yemen 104
Afghan National Army (ANA) 138
Afghanistan x, xi, xii, 35–6, 69, 72, 74–6, 77–9, 81–3, 89, 109, 114, 117–43, 146, 148, 150–3, 157–62, 163, 176, 179, 185, 187
1963
Sino-Afghan Boundary Treaty 24
1978
Saur revolution 122
1979–1989
Soviet War xi, 35–6, 72, 74–5, 77–9, 118, 122–6, 140, 183
1989–2001
civil war 126–7
1993
China closes embassy in Kabul after rocket attacks 118, 126
1996
fall of Kabul to the Taliban 127
1997
fall of Mazar-e-Sharif to the Taliban 127
1998
United States cruise missile strikes 44.
2000
CICIR delegation meets with Taliban 128, 177
Lu Shulin meets with Taliban 128–9
2001
destruction of Bamiyan Buddhas 130
Kunduz airlift 136
2001–2014
Afghanistan War x, xii, 2, 4–5, 73, 83, 89, 109, 117, 118, 119, 120, 130–43, 151–2, 157–62, 163
2002
reopening of Chinese embassy in Kabul 118
2003
Cessna 402B plane crash in Arabian Sea 117–19
2004
killing of Chinese workers in Kunduz 135
2007
Chinese consortium wins Aynak mining contract 120, 133, 137
2008
Indian embassy bombing in Kabul 114
2009
Camp Chapman attack 156
2010
United States drone strike in Baghdis province 146
International Conference on Afghanistan, Kabul 158
2011
International Conference on Afghanistan, Istanbul 142, 160
International Conference on Afghanistan, Bonn 142, 160
oil contract awarded to China National Petroleum Corporation 139
2012
Zhou Yongkang visits Kabul 142–3, 160
2014
Kabul restaurant attack 188
Ahmed Shah Masoud 125
Ahmed, Aziz 17
Ahmed, Nur 72–3
Ahmed, Shamshad 55
Aijazuddin, Fakir Syed
From a Head, Through a Head, To a Head 185
‘Airlift of Evil’ 136
AK-47s see Kalashnikov rifles
Akayev, Askar 134
Akhund, Iqbal 12
Akhund, Mullah Mohammad Issa 130
Akhund, Mullah Muhammad Hassan 128
Akhundzada, Mullah Abdul Razzaq 129
Aksai Chin 22
Al Ain, United Arab Emirates 69
Al Qaeda xi, xii, 44, 78, 82, 84, 87, 109, 118, 127, 132, 134, 136, 145–6, 156
Ali, Chaudhry Muhammad xiii
‘all-weather friendship’ 3, 19, 31, 53
Alpetkin, Isa 67
Amu Darya field, Afghanistan 140–1
AN/ALR-69 Radar Warning Receiver 38
Andijon massacre (Kyrgyzstan) 134
l’Aquila, Italy 87
Arabian Sea xi, 115, 117
Argentina 119
Ariana Afghan Airlines 129
Armitage, Richard 83, 132
arms trade 2, 12, 15, 16, 19, 30–1, 36–9, 52, 77–8, 81, 107–8, 115, 125–6, 134, 150, 152
Arunachal Pradesh, India 53
Asian financial crisis (1997) 168
Assam, India 17, 77
Attabad Lake, Gojal 99
Australia 119
Austria 49–52
Aynak, Afghanistan 118–21, 132, 135, 137–9, 141, 159
Ayub Khan, Muhammad 9, 17, 18, 21, 23, 24, 31, 76, 106
Ayub Khan: Pakistan’s First Military Ruler 186
Aziz, Sartaj 58
Aziz, Shaukat xiii
Babur cruise missiles 41
Badaber, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 20
Badakhshan province, Afghanistan 121, 123, 134
Baghdis province, Afghanistan 146
Bagram, Afghanistan 75
Baloch Liberation Army 102
Balochistan 44, 54, 100–3, 104–5, 109, 133, 167
Chagai hills 41
Gwadar x–xi, xv, 4, 53, 65, 93, 100–3, 104–5, 109, 115, 137, 156, 167, 171, 176
Quetta 101, 129, 133, 137, 162
Saindak gold and copper mine 118
Baluch Welfare Society 93
Baluch, Nisar 93
Bamiyan, Afghanistan 130
Bandung Conference 21
Bangalore, India 170
Bangladesh 10–16, 17, 19, 77, 170
Baren, Xinjiang 74, 75
Bass, Gary
The Blood Telegram: Nixon, Kissinger, and a Forgotten Genocide 187
Baute, Jacques 27
BCIM (Bangladesh China India Myanmar) Economic Corridor 170, 178
Beijing, China 67
1989 Tiananmen Square protests 48, 149
2008 Summer Olympic Games xiii, 69, 84–5, 90, 146
2013 Tiananmen Square attack 176–7
Beijing Municipal Revolutionary Committee 94
Bekri, Nur 86
Belgium 50
Bhutto, Benazir xii, xvi, 43, 112, 151, 166
Bhutto, Zulfiqar Ali 9–14, 16, 17, 18–19, 23–5, 30, 31, 39, 100, 112, 149
Bin Laden, Osama xi–xii, xv, 16, 67, 82, 127, 145, 155–7, 184
Bin Sultan, Bandar 42
Bin Sultan, Khaled 42, 43
Blood Telegram, The 187
Bogra, Muhammad Ali 21
Bonn, Germany 142, 160
BRICS 98, 170
British Army 117
Royal Corps of Engineers 109
Brookings Institution 187
brothels ix, 133, 135, 185
Brussels, Belgium 50
Brzezinski, Zbigniew 35, 149
Buddhas of Bamiyan 130
Bureau of Architectural Technology 33
Burma 77, 153, 180; see also Myanmar
Bush, George Walker 50, 55, 130, 150
C-130 Hercules see Lockheed C-130 Hercules
CAC/PAC JF-17 Thunder 108, 154, 156, 171
Calcutta, India 170
Cambodia 180
Campbell, Kurt 163
Canada 49
Capital Worker-Peasant Mao Zedong Thought Propaganda Teams 94
Carter, James Earl ‘Jimmy’ 35
Caspian Sea 169
CCTV (China Central Television) 130
Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) 187
CENTO (Central Treaty Organization) 20
Centrifuge technology 39
Cessna 402B aircraft 117
Chagai hills, Balochistan 41
Chagmalai, South Waziristan 110
Chaklala airbase, Rawalpindi 171
Charsadda, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 88
Chashma complex, Punjab 62–4, 171, 175, 184
Chaudhry, Ifitkhar 167
Chechnya 75, 177
Chen Xiaogong 130