The Battle for the Arab Spring

by Lin Noueihed

  From liberals to nationalists to Islamists, old parties have recalibrated their positions and are trying to shape new constitutions in Tunisia and Egypt. In Bahrain, where an uprising has been suppressed, it will resurface. In Syria, it will rumble on. If reforms fall short in Morocco or Jordan, more demonstrations will surely follow. In Libya, much hard power lies with armed groups who are jostling for influence and money in the fragile post-Gaddafi era. Across the region, many who set aside differences to overthrow the old order have since retreated to the cosseted protection and comfort of tribe, family, religion or sect as the turbulent struggle for power unfolds.

  After decades of suppressed volatility disguised as stability, the Arab Spring has kick-started a more prolonged period of change that may eventually bring down the Al Khalifa family in Bahrain, evict Egypt's military from the political arena, or downgrade Morocco's monarchy to constitutional status. It may even see revolution in Saudi Arabia, a kingdom that might have been too big to fail in 2011 but which has perhaps now been prodded further along the road to a major upheaval. The region now faces great instability as an array of tensions and conflicts bubble over. But only by allowing them to be played out, rather than bottled up, can they be resolved. Suppressing Islamists served only to breed extremism. Ignoring demands for better living standards or freer elections only led to the angry youth explosion of 2011. Giving one set of people preference over another only cultivated rage.

  This new era will not be peaceful or pretty. There will be winners and losers, revolutionaries and counter-revolutionaries, bloodshed and truces, hope and despair. There may be war and another round of revolts before the dust settles in certain countries, and many in the region will privately wish that 2011 had never happened at all. The gusts of the Arab Spring have blown in new uncertainties to replace the certainties of old. In this new climate, anything now seems possible. For the people of the region, forced for so long to live out a pretence at stability, hopeless that they could change their world or shape its future, that is the biggest prize of all.

  Endnotes

  Introduction

  1. ‘Egyptian Election: Hosni Mubarak's NDP Sweeps Second Round’, BBC, 7 December 2010, www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east–11935368 (accessed 15 September 2011); Human Rights Watch, ‘Egypt: Elections Marred as Opposition Barred from Polls’, 29 November 2010, www.hrw.org/news/2010/11/29/egypt-elections-marred-opposition-barred-polls (accessed 15 September 2011).

  2. Human Rights Watch, ‘Bahrain: Elections to Take Place Amid Crackdown’, 20 October 2010, www.hrw.org/news/2010/10/20/bahrain-elections-take-place-amid-crackdown (accessed 15 September 2011).

  3. ‘Tunisian President in Fifth Win’, BBC, 26 October 2009 (accessed 15 September 2011).

  4. Catherine Goueset, ‘Ben Ali et la liste des 65 flatteurs’, L'Express, 20 January 2011, www.lexpress.fr/actualite/monde/afrique/ben-ali-et-la-liste-des–65-flatteurs_953972.html (accessed 15 September 2011).

  5. UN population statistics for Middle East and North Africa in 2010.

  6. Dhillon, Navtej and Yousef, Tarik, ‘Generation in Waiting: The Unfulfilled Promise of Young People in the Middle East’, Brookings Institution Press, 2009.

  7. Arab Human Development Report 2002, pp. 27–9, www.arab-hdr.org (accessed 14 September 2011).

  8. Ibid., pp. 52, 65 (accessed 15 September 2011).

  9. Ibid., p. 78.

  10. Kassir, Samir, Being Arab, London: Verso, 2006.

  11. Gurr, Ted, Why Men Rebel, New Jersey: Princeton University Press, 1970.

  12. Quinn, Andrew and Doherty, Regan E., ‘Clinton Talks Tough to “Stagnant” Mideast Allies’, Reuters, 13 January 2011.

  13. ‘Arab World Experiences Rapid Population Explosion’, 23 March 2010, http://worldfocus.org/blog/2010/03/23/arab-world-experiences-rapid-population-explosion/10090/ (accessed 29 October 2011).

  Chapter 1: An Arab Malaise

  1. Eurasia Group, ‘Top Risks 2011’, www.eurasiagroup.net/pages/top-risks (accessed 15 September 2011).

  2. Huntington, Samuel P., ‘Democracy's Third Wave’, Journal of Democracy 2 (2), 1991.

  3. Cole, Juan, ‘Saad's Revolution’, Truthdig, 1 February 2011. www.truthdig.com/report/item/saads_revolution_20110131/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+Truthdig+Truthdig%3A+Drilling+Beneath+the+Headlines (accessed 15 September 2011).

  4. Authors’ calculations based on figures in ‘The SPIRI Military Expenditure Database’, Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, http://milexdata.sipri.org/ (accessed 20 September 2011).

  5. ‘Saudi Arabian National Guard’, www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/gulf/sang.htm (accessed 20 September 2011).

  6. Conversation with author in September 2010.

  7. Heydemann, Steven, ‘Upgrading Authoritarianism in the Arab World’, Analysis Paper No. 13, October 2007, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution, pp. 7–8, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2007/10arabworld/10arabworld.pdf (accessed 21 September 2011).

  8. Sinjab, Lina, ‘Is Syria ready to engage with NGOs?’, BBC website, 24 January 2010, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8477748.stm (accessed 21 September 2011).

  9. ‘Queen Rania: The 21st Century Queen’, Glamour, 1 November 2010, www.glamour.com/women-of-the-year/2010/queen-rania (accessed 21 September 2011) and ‘The World's 100 Most Powerful Women,’ Forbes, www.forbes.com/wealth/power-women/list (accessed 21 September 2011).

  10. Malone, Noreen, ‘The Middle East's Marie Antoinettes’, Slate, 23 March 2011, www.slate.com/id/2289021 (accessed 21 September 2011).

  11. Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter all attended. Photos of all three posing with Ronald Reagan at the White House can be found at the Reagan Library in the University of Texas, www.reagan.utexas.edu/archives/photographs/four.html (accessed 15 September 2011).

  12. Remarks made in an exclusive interview with Biden aired on PBS on 27 January 2011, www.pbs.org/newshour/bb/politics/jan-june11/biden_01–27.html

  13. BP Statistical Yearbook.

  14. Ibid.

  15. Ibid.; includes the neutral zone shared with Kuwait.

  16. ‘US Energy Information Administration figures published 20 August 2011, http://205.254.135.24/dnav/pet/pet_move_impcus_a2_nus_ep00_im0_mbbl_m.htm (accessed 15 September 2011).

  17. ‘US says Syrians reportedly engage Moslem Brotherhood’, Dow Jones Newswires, 11 February 1982.

  18. Friedman, Thomas, ‘A Syrian City Amid the Rubble of Rebellion’, 29 May 1982.

  19. For full SHRC statement published on 14 February 2006, see www.shrc.org/data/aspx/d5/2535.aspx

  20. Capaccio, Tony, ‘Military aid to Yemen doubles as U.S. aims to boost fight against Al Qaeda’, published by Bloomberg, 25 August 2010.

  21. Zaks, Dmitry, ‘Russia kills “Saudi al Qaeda leader” in Chechnya’, AFP, 22 April 2011.

  22. The details of Libya's hunt for bin Laden and his links to the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group have been widely reported, e.g. ‘The untold story of Gaddafi's hunt for bin Laden’, Die Welt, 2 May 2011, www.worldcrunch.com/untold-story-gaddafis-hunt-osama-bin-laden/2963

  23. Published in 2006, the findings of the Commission of Inquiry into the Actions of Canadian Officials in Relation to Maher Arar clearly explain what befell Arar: www.sirc-csars.gc.ca/pdfs/cm_arar_rec-eng.pdf Another example is that of Abu Omar, a cleric kidnapped in Milan in 2003 and sent back to his native Egypt, where he was interrogated. For more details, see BBC story ‘Egypt rendition cleric freed’, published on 12 February 2007, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/6352717.stm

  24. This was widely reported. See Nordland, Rob, ‘In Libya, former enemy is recast in role of ally’, New York Times, 1 September 2011, http://www.nytimes.com/2011/09/02/world/africa/02islamist.html?pagewanted=1&_r=1

  25. See Wright, Robin and Baker, Peter, ‘Iraq, Jordan see threat to election from Iran’, Washington Post, 8 December 2004, www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A43980–2004Dec7.html

  26. Bush ga
ve his second inaugural speech on 20 January 2005.

  27. 2010 Arab Opinion Poll, conducted by University of Maryland in conjunction with Zogby International in June and July 2010, published 5 August 2010.

  28. Kassir, Samir, foreword to Being Arab, London: Verso, 2006.

  Chapter 2: Bread, Oil and Jobs

  1. De Tocqueville, Alexis, The Old Regime and the Revolution, 1856.

  2. Report by Samba, a Saudi bank, released in December 2008. Figures refer to period from June 2003 to June 2008.

  3. UNCTAD World Investment Report 2011, www.unctad.org

  4. Dubai's oil production is estimated at 70,000b/d, less than 5 per cent of the UAE's total output.

  5. UNCTAD World Investment Report 2011, www.unctad.org

  6. Ibid.

  7. Ennakhl, Le Moteur and Alpha are the three companies in question.

  8. As described in WikiLeaks cables.

  9. The corruption probe was widely covered in the local and international press and investigated various state-owned entities, including Nakheel and Sama Dubai. See, for example: Kerr, Simeon, ‘Three held in Dubai corruption probe’, Financial Times, 10 February 2009.

  10. Cable entitled ‘Troubled Tunisia: what should we do?’ dated 17 July 2009, http://wikileaks.org/cable/2009/07/09TUNIS492.html#

  11. US embassy cable leaked by WikiLeaks and quoted in www.crethiplethi.com/wikileaks-moroccan-royals-accused-of-corruption/usa/2011/

  12. The idea of soft states is discussed at various points in Myrdal, Asian Drama: An Inquiry into the Poverty of Nations, 1968.

  13. Galal Amin, Egypt in the Era of Hosni Mubarak, Cairo University Press, 2011.

  14. World Bank data.

  15. National Bank of Kuwait (NBK) report, cited at www.emirates247.com/business/economy-finance/gcc-remittances-to-egypt-exceed–4bn–2010–07–26–1.270952 (accessed 15 September 2011).

  16. World Bank data.

  17. Poll conducted by Abu Dhabi Gallup Center, available at www.abudhabigallupcenter.com/148229/tunisia-analyzing-dawn-arab-spring.aspx

  18. Authors’ interviews with employees of the institute, August 2011.

  19. From 84 points to 151 points. CAPMAS statistics, www.capmas.gov.eg

  20. Syrian Central Bureau of Statistics, www.cbssyr.org

  21. Haut Commissariat au Plan (Moroccan statistics authority), www.hcp.ma/Indice-de-cout-de-vie_r104.html. The subsidies bill rose by 78 per cent and the grain price index rose from 148 points to 180 points.

  22. Tunisian National Statistics Institute data. Food and drinks rose from 105 points in 2006 to 128 points in 2010, while transport rose from 106 to 131 points over the same period. The overall index rose from 104 to 122.

  23. US embassy cable released by WikiLeaks in December 2010.

  24. Central Bank of Tunisia data, www.bct.gov.tn/bct/siteprod/english/indicateurs/credits.jsp#beneficiaire

  25. IMF April 2011 World Economic Database. Figures are in real terms.

  26. US Wheat Associates report January 2011. North Africa is defined in the report as Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt.

  27. Ibid.

  28. UN Food and Agricultural Organisation (FAO) overall food price index, accessed at www.fao.org

  29. BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011.

  30. Saudi Central Department of Statistics.

  31. Abu Dhabi Gallup poll, as cited above.

  32. World Bank report cited in Dubai School of Government paper ‘Missed by the Boom, Hurt by the Bust’, available at www.dsg.ae/PUBLICATIONS/PublicationDetail.aspx?udt_826_param_detail=676

  33. As quoted in BBC News report at www.bbc.co.uk/news/business–14006885

  34. Pierre Puchot, Tunisie, Une Revolution Arabe, Galaade, France, 2011.

  35. As reported in The National newspaper, www.thenational.ae/news/uae-news/unemployment-rate-for-emiratis-stands-at–13

  36. Al Watan newspaper, as quoted in August 2011 in www.iloveqatar.net/forum/read.php?28,29516

  37. http://news.gulfjobsmarket.com/native-workers-in-the-uae-still-avoid-working-in-the-private-sector–7861475-news

  38. Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency (SAMA), www.sama.gov.sa

  39. 24.6 million estimated by CAPMAS in July 2010 census, compared to 22.8 million in the 2006 census.

  40. CAPMAS statistics. 35 per cent of the unemployed population had degrees.

  41. www.eces.org.eg/Uploaded_Files/events/ per cent7B9717DAA4-FA14–49B7–91DB–6E24FF8B6E62 per cent7D_Sahay_MacArthur_ECES_Final-Janu_23_2011.pdf

  42. Report by Al Arabiya website, http://www.alarabiya.net/save_pdf.php?cont_id=58209

  43. Al Sayegh, Hadeel, ‘Syria grows into new Bourse’, The National, 14 February 2011.

  44. Bourse de Tunis, ‘Rapport Annuel 2010’. Saudi statistics are taken from www.tadawul.gov.sa

  45. Central Bank of Egypt statistics.

  46. UNCTAD World Investment Report 2011, www.unctad.org

  47. Tunisian official statistics showed arrivals were 6.9m in 2009 and 2010 compared to 7.05m in 2008.

  48. Syrian Ministry of Tourism figures quoted by The Syria Report (www.syria-report.com).

  49. Abu Dhabi Gallup poll, as cited above.

  50. IMF figures from April 2011 World Economic Outlook database at www.imf.org

  Chapter 3: The Media Revolution

  1. Wael Ghonim interviewed by CNN's Ivan Watson, 9 February 2011.

  2. Noueihed, Lin, ‘Syrian Court Postpones Trial of Leading Dissident’, Reuters, 19 May 2002.

  3. The journalist in question was co-author Lin Noueihed.

  4. See the Open Network Initiative report on Syria published 7 August 2009 for a fuller picture of Syria's internet censorship, http://opennet.net/research/profiles/syria (accessed 16 September 2011). Both internet censorship and the role of ONI will be discussed in more detail later in the book.

  5. 3G services cost the equivalent of $50 a month, according to the Open Network Initiative report on Syria, 7 August 2009, http://opennet.net/research/profiles/syria (accessed 16 September 2011).

  6. http://shaam.org/ (accessed 16 September 2011).

  7. James, Laura M., ‘Whose Voice? Nasser, the Arabs and Sawt al-Arab Radio’, TBS 16, 2006, www.tbsjournal.com/James.html (accessed 16 September 2011).

  8. Miladi, Noureddine, ‘Satellite News and the Arab Diaspora in Britain: Comparing Al-Jazeera, the BBC and CNN’, Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 32(6), August 2006, pp. 947–60.

  9. Ibid.

  10. Ibid.

  11. For an excellent study of the role of Al-Jazeera and its coverage of the 2003 Iraq war in transforming the Arab public sphere, see Lynch, Marc, Voices of the New Arab Public: Iraq, Al-Jazeera, and Middle East Politics Today, New York: Columbia University Press, 2006.

  12. Miles, Hugh, Al-Jazeera: How Arab TV News Challenged the World, London: Abacus, 2005, pp. 38–48.

  13. Transcription by the authors from the original video.

  14. Miles, Hugh, Al-Jazeera: How Arab TV News Challenged the World, London: Abacus, 2005.

  15. Ibid.

  16. 2010 Arab Public Opinion Poll, conducted by the University of Maryland in conjunction with Zogby International, published 5 August 2010, www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/reports/2010/08_arab_opinion_poll_telhami/08_arab_opinion_poll_telhami.pdf (accessed 16 September 2011).

  17. Prodger, Matt, ‘Superstar Muslim preacher Amr Khaled Battle Al Qaeda’, BBC, 7 December 2010, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/programmes/newsnight/9264357.stm (accessed 16 September 2011).

  18. Demonstrations continued over two years, until concerns over the build-up to the invasion of Iraq took precedence on the Arab streets.

  19. Sachs, Susan, ‘Unleashed, Anger Can Bite its Master’, New York Times, 22 October 2000.

  20. Arab Human Development Report 2002, UNDP and Arab Fund for Economic and Social Development, pp. 74–5 (accessed 19 September 2011).

  21. International Telecommunications Union statistics, from www.itu.int (accessed 23 December 2011). User numbers rose
from 25 million in 2005 to 105 million in 2011.

  22. Wheeler, Deborah, ‘The Internet and Youth Subculture in Kuwait’, Journal of Computer-Mediated Communication 8(2), 2003.

  23. All statistics from International Telecommunications Union, www.itu.int (accessed 23 December 2011).

  24. Mourtada, Racha and Salem, Fadi, ‘Facebook Usage: Factors and Analysis’, Arab Social Media Report, Dubai School of Government, vol. 1, no. 1. January 2011, pp. 4–5 (accessed 17 September 2011).

  25. Ibid.

  26. All statistics from International Telecommunications Union, www.itu.int (accessed 23 December 2011).

  27. Scholars have theorized this phenomenon from a rational choice perspective. See Lohmann, Susanne, ‘The Dynamics of Informational Cascades: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989–91’, World Politics 47(1), 1994, pp. 42–101, and Kuran, Timur, ‘Now Out of Never: The Element of Surprise in the East European Revolution of 1989’, World Politics 44(1), 1991, pp. 7–48.

  28. Gladwell, Malcolm, ‘Small Change: Why the Revolution will not be Tweeted’, 4 October 2010.

  29. Morozov, Evgeny, ‘Facebook and Twitter are Just Places Revolutionaries Go’, Guardian, 7 March 2011.

  30. Dickinson, Elizabeth, ‘The First Wikileaks Revolution?’, 13 January 2011, http://wikileaks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/01/13/wikileaks_and_the_tunisia_protests (accessed 18 September 2011); ‘First Wikileaks Revolution: Tunisia Descends into Anarchy as President Flees after Cables Reveal Country's Corruption’, Daily Mail, 15 January 2011.

  31. Courbage, Youssef and Todd, Emmanuel, A Convergence of Civilizations: The Transformation of Muslim Societies Around the World, New York: Columbia University Press, 2011.