The Battle for the Arab Spring

by Lin Noueihed

  Chapter 4: Tunisia's Jasmine Revolution

  1. Translation from the Arabic by Elliot Colla, associate professor of Arabic and Islamic Studies at Georgetown University, http://arablit.wordpress.com/2011/01/16/two-translations-of-abu-al-qasim-al-shabis-if-the-people-wanted-life-one-day/ (accessed 29 September 2011).

  2. Others accompanied them to the airport but these are the family members who are believed to have boarded the plane for Saudi Arabia. For a blow-by-blow account of the day of Ben Ali's departure, see ‘Al Arabiya enquiry reveals how Tunisia's Ben Ali escaped to Saudi Arabia’, Al Arabiya, 13 January 2012, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/01/13/188093.html (accessed 16 January 2012).

  3. ‘France says Tunisia Ex-leader not Welcome’, Reuters, 14 January 2011.

  4. See ‘France Intercepted Riot Gear Shipment to Ben Ali’, Reuters, 19 January 2011. See also ‘France Replaces Tunisia Envoy with Sarkozy Ally’, Reuters, 26 January 2011.

  5. For a full account of Alliote-Marie's activities in Tunisia on the eve of revolution, see Pape, Eric, ‘Le Scandal’, Foreign Policy magazine, 25 February 2011: www.foreignpolicy.com/articles/2011/02/25/le_scandal?page=full

  6. Love, Brian, ‘French minister under attack over Tunisian trip’, Reuters, 2 February 2011, www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/02/uk-tunisia-france-idUKTRE71147320110202 (accessed 17 January 2012).

  7. As note 2, see ‘Al Arabiya enquiry reveals how Tunisia's Ben Ali escaped to Saudi Arabia’, Al Arabiya, 13 January 2012, http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/01/13/188093.html (accessed 16 January 2012).

  8. ‘Tunisia: 2010 Article IV Consultation’, IMF, conducted August 2010, released September 2010, www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2010/cr10282.pdf (accessed 3 October 2011).

  9. ‘The Global Competitiveness Report 2010–11’, World Economic Forum, 2010: www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_GlobalCompetitivenessReport_2010–11.pdf (accessed 3 October 2011).

  10. ‘Tunisia: Analyzing the Dawn of the Arab Spring’, Abu Dhabi Gallup Poll, June 2011, www.abudhabigallupcenter.com/148229/tunisia-analyzing-dawn-arab-spring.aspx (accessed 3 October 2011).

  11. Authors’ interviews with Tunisian protesters in January, February, July and August 2011.

  12. Figures taken from Zartman, William, ‘Report on the First Tunisian Multiparty Legislative Elections’, International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), April 1989, www.ifes.org/Content/Publications/Reports/1989/~/media/Files/Publications/VRC/Reports/1989/R01910/R01910.pdf

  13. ‘Opposition Contests Election Results’, Reuters, 8 April 1989.

  14. In its press release from 4 March 1992 entitled ‘Tunisia: Thousands Held Illegally, Torture Routine in Crackdown on Islamic Opposition,’ Amnesty International states that at least 8,000 people had been arrested over the previous 18 months: www.amnesty.org/en/library/asset/MDE30/005/1992/en/7d2ed1fa-f93b–11dd–92e7-c59f81373cf2/mde300051992en.pdf

  15. ‘Repression of Former Political Prisoners in Tunisia: A larger prison’, 24 March 2010, Human Rights Watch.

  16. Noueihed, Lin, ‘Tunisian Muslims Worship Freely after Revolution’, Reuters, 21 January 2011.

  17. Hibou, Beatrice, The Force of Obedience: The Political Economy of Repression in Tunisia, Cambridge: Polity, 2011, pp. 97–8; Heydemann, Steven, ‘Upgrading Authoritarianism in the Arab World’, Analysis Paper No. 13, October 2007, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution, p. 9, www.brookings.edu/~/media/Files/rc/papers/2007/10arabworld/10arabworld.pdf (accessed 21 September 2011).

  18. Hibou, Beatrice, The Force of Obedience: The Political Economy of Repression in Tunisia, Cambridge: Polity, 2011, pp. 97–8.

  19. World Report 2009, Human Rights Watch: http://www.hrw.org/world-report–2009/tunisia (accessed 13 October 2011).

  20. According to UGTT website: http://www.ugtt.org.tn/en/presentation3.php (accessed 13 October 2011).

  21. Figure provided by Adel Jelil Bedoui, former union official, in an interview with the authors, August 2011.

  22. Hibou, Beatrice, The Force of Obedience: The Political Economy of Repression in Tunisia, Cambridge: Polity, 2011, pp. 123–6.

  23. According to Tunisian political activist Sofiane Chourabi in an interview with the author, August 2011.

  24. According to interviews by the authors with PDP members and communists in Sidi Bouzid in January 2011.

  25. ‘Popular Protests in the Middle East and North Africa: Tunisia's Way’, International Crisis Group Middle East/North Africa Report No. 106, 28 April 2011.

  26. Interview with the authors, August 2011.

  27. Ibid.

  28. Ibid.

  29. ‘Popular Protests in the Middle East and North Africa: Tunisia's Way’, International Crisis Group Middle East/North Africa Report No. 106, 28 April 2011, p. 11.

  30. Ibid.

  31. Bouazizi's family says he was slapped. The policewoman denies this and was later found innocent.

  32. Noueihed, Lin, ‘Peddler's Martyrdom Launched Tunisia's Revolution’, Reuters, 20 January 2011.

  33. Awad, Marwa and Chikhi, Lamine, ‘Burnings Spread to Egypt, Algeria in Tunisia Echo’, Reuters, 17 January 2011.

  34. Noueihed, Lin, ‘Peddler's Martyrdom Launched Tunisia's Revolution’, Reuters, 20 January 2011.

  35. Ibid.

  36. Interview with the authors, August 2011.

  37. ‘Tunisia Frees Rapper Critical of Government’, Reuters, 9 January 2011.

  38. ‘Popular Protests in the Middle East and North Africa: Tunisia's Way’, International Crisis Group Middle East/North Africa Report No. 106, 28 April 2011, p. 11.

  39. ‘Violence Breaks out in Tunisia Capital’, Reuters, 11 January 2011.

  40. ‘Five More Killed in Tunisia Clashes – Witnesses’, Reuters, 12 January 2011.

  41. Tarhouni gave a press conference to this effect on 8 August 2011.

  42. ‘UN Says 147 Killed in Tunisian Uprising’, Reuters, 1 February 2011.

  43. Noueihed, Lin, ‘Thousands Await Return of Tunisian Islamist Leader’, Reuters, 30 January 2011.

  44. Moore, Clement Henry, Tunisia Since Independence: The Dynamics of One-Party Government, California University Press, 1965, pp. 50–52; see also Tamimi, pp. 9–10.

  45. Ibid. See also Tamimi, pp. 9–10.

  46. King, Stephen Juan, The New Authoritarianism in the Middle East and North Africa, Indiana University Press, 2009.

  47. As cited in Moore, p. 55.

  48. Noueihed, Lin, ‘Islamists Emerge as Powerful Force in New Tunisia’, Reuters, 2 February 2011.

  49. Noueihed, Lin and Perry, Tom, ‘Tunisian Islamists Show Strength at Chief's Return’, Reuters, 30 January 2011.

  50. Henegan, Tom, ‘Tunisian Women Rally to Defend Rights Against Islamists’, Reuters, 3 November 2011.

  51. Interview with the author.

  52. Interview with author, 3 February 2011. Part of this quote was published in Noueihed, Lin, ‘Tunisia Islamists say Excluded, Call for Unity Government’, Reuters, 3 February 2011.

  53. Amara, Tarek and Lowe, Christian, ‘Tunisia Islamists Send Business-friendly Message’, Reuters, 26 October 2011.

  54. ‘Tunisia Warns of Tough Action Against Troublemakers’, Reuters, 30 October 1990.

  55. Tamimi, Azzam S., Rachid Ghannouchi: A Democrat within Islamism, Religion and Global Politics Series, Oxford University Press, 2001, pp. 4–7.

  56. Ibid., pp. 17–23.

  57. Ibid., pp. 28–33.

  58. Ibid., pp. 46–52.

  59. Ibid., pp. 56–7.

  60. Ibid., p. 72.

  61. Ibid., p. 47.

  62. Ibid., pp. 61–2.

  63. Wright, Jonathan, ‘Tunisia Launches Anti-Islamist Campaign’, Reuters, 23 April 1990.

  64. Interview with the authors, August 2011.

  65. Ibid.

  66. Ben Ghazi, Myriam, ‘Hopelessness, desperation and marginalization: five attempted suicides in Kasserine’, Tunisia Live, 17 September 2011.

  67. www.investintunisia.tn (accessed 15 Decem
ber 2011).

  68. ‘New Regional Development Strategy Centred Around Three Axes’, TAP, 29 September 2011, www.tap.info.tn/en/en/economy/5948-new-regional-development-strategy-centred-around–3-axes.html (accessed 17 October 2011).

  69. Interview with the authors, August 2011.

  70. Amara, Tarek, ‘Tunisia President Asks for 6-month Political Truce’, Reuters, 14 December 2011.

  71. Interview with the authors, August 2011.

  72. ‘4 Billion to Tunisia for 2011–2013: EU Offers Financial Support, Trade Openings and Improved Mobility’, ENPI, 30 September 2011, .www.enpi-info.eu/medportal/news/latest/26539/%E2%82%AC4-billion-to-Tunisia-for–2011–2013:-EU-offers-financial-support,-trade-openings-and-improved-mobility (accessed 17 October 2011).

  73. Interview with the authors, July 2011.

  Chapter 5: Egypt: The Pharaoh Falls

  1. Taxi was first published in Arabic in 2005. This foreword was penned in April 2011 for the new English edition published the same year by Bloomsbury Qatar Foundation Publishing, and translated from Arabic by Jonathan Wright.

  2. See ‘Unrest in Egypt: Strange Ongoings’, 10 February 2011, www.economist.com/blogs/newsbook/2011/02/unrest_egypt (accessed 16 September 2011).

  3. ‘Egypt's Military Discusses Measures in Crisis – TV’, Reuters, 10 February 2011.

  4. ‘Mubarak Likely to Step Down this Evening – CIA chief’, Reuters, 10 February 2011.

  5. ‘Egypt Ruling Party Head Says Mubarak Must Go’, Reuters, 10 February 2011.

  6. ‘Mubarak Definitely not Going to Step Down’, Reuters, 10 February 2011.

  7. Perry, Tom, ‘Mubarak Speech Pulls Plug on Tahrir Square Party’, Reuters, 11 February 2011.

  8. ‘Mubarak Says Heading to Peaceful Power Transfer’, Reuters, 10 February 2011.

  9. ‘Opposition Party Pulls out of Egypt Dialogue’, Reuters, 10 February 2011.

  10. Blair, Edmund and Nakhoul, Samia, ‘Rage in Egypt as Mubarak Hangs on’, Reuters, 10 February 2011.

  11. ‘Egypt's Private Sector Country Profile 2009’, African Development Bank, p. 3, www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Project-and-Operations/Brochure%20Egypt%20Anglais.pdf (accessed 2 November 2011).

  12. See IMF's ‘Arab Republic of Egypt: 2010 Article IV Consultation’, April 2010.

  13. Ministry of Finance: www.mof.gov.eg/English/Pages/Selected-Economic-Indicators.aspx (accessed 2 November 2011). Also see IMF World Economic Outlook database, September 2011.

  14. Egypt's official Central Agency for Mobilization and Statistics: www.capmas.gov.eg/pages_ar.aspx?pageid=851 (accessed 2 January 2012).

  15. See ‘Egypt's Progress Towards Achieving the Millennium Development Goals 2010’, UNDP and Egyptian Ministry of Economic Development: www.mop.gov.eg/PDF/2010%20MDGR_English_R51.pdf (accessed 8 November 2011).

  16. Egypt's official Central Agency for Mobilization and Statistics: www.capmas.gov.eg/default.aspx?lang=2 (accessed 8 November 2011).

  17. Ibid.

  18. Ibid.

  19. CAPMAS statistics.

  20. According to the IMF World Economic Outlook database, September 2011.

  21. Egypt's official Central Agency for Mobilization and Statistics: www.capmas.gov.eg/default.aspx?lang=2 (accessed 8 November 2011).

  22. ‘Payout over Egypt Ferry Disaster’, BBC, 7 June 2006, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/5054358.stm (accessed 30 October 2011).

  23. ‘Egypt Ferry Owner Sentenced to 7 Years’, Die Welt online, 11 March 2009, www.welt.de/english-news/article3358219/Egypt-ferry-owner-sentenced-to-seven-years.html (accessed 30 October 2011).

  24. See Egypt: The Arithmetic of Revolution, Abu Dhabi Gallup poll, published in March 2011, www.abudhabigallupcenter.com/146888/BRIEF-Egypt-Arithmetic-Revolution.aspx (accessed 15 September 2011) and Tunisia: Analyzing the Dawn of the Arab Spring, Abu Dhabi Gallup poll published June 2011: www.abudhabigallupcenter.com/148229/tunisia-analyzing-dawn-arab-spring.aspx (accessed 15 September 2011).

  25. Williams, Dan, ‘Egypt Frees an Aspiring Candidate’, Washington Post, www.washington-post.com/wp-dyn/articles/A29477–2005Mar12.html (accessed 21 September 2011).

  26. ‘Egypt's Nour Released from Jail’, BBC, 18 February 2009, http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/7897703.stm (accessed 21 September 2011).

  27. US cable by Ambassador Francis Ricciardone entitled ‘Presidential Succession in Egypt’, http://wikileaks-egypt.blogspot.com/2010/12/ricciardone-we-believe-gamal-did-not.html (accessed 9 November 2011).

  28. This is certainly the conclusion US diplomats in Cairo had come to and is corroborated by conversations with various Egyptian activists and analysts. US cable by Ambassador Margaret Scobey dated September 2008 and entitled ‘Academics See the Military in Decline but Retaining Strong Influence’, http://wikileaks.ch/cable/2008/09/08CAIRO2091.html (accessed 2 November 2011).

  29. Amin, Galal, Egypt in the Era of Hosni Mubarak 1981–2011, Cairo: Cairo University Press, 2011. Despite its title, this book contains a thorough criticism of Sadat's economic policies.

  30. According to a 2007 cable entitled ‘Egypt in Transition: Mubarak and Sadat’, released by WikiLeaks in December 2010: http://wikileaks.ch/cable/2007/09/07CAIRO2871.html (accessed 2 November 2011).

  31. Amin, Galal, Whatever Happened to the Egyptians? Cairo: American University of Cairo Press, 2000.

  32. Al Aswany, Alaa, The Yacoubian Building, New York: Harper Perennial, 2006.

  33. Interview by the authors with Kamal Abu Aita, head of the Egyptian Federation of Independent Trade Unions established during the uprising, 8 October 2011.

  34. Ibid.

  35. Ibid.

  36. See UNDP Program on Governance in the Arab Region for more on associations legislation in Egypt: www.pogar.org/countries/theme.aspx?t=2&cid=5 (accessed 21 January 2012).

  37. Chick, Kristen, ‘Egyptians unhappy with lenient sentence for Khaled Said's killers’, Christian Science Monitor, 26 October 2011, www.csmonitor.com/World/Middle-East/2011/1026/Egyptians-unhappy-with-lenient-sentence-for-Khaled-Said-s-killers (accessed 21 January 2012).

  38. Carnegie Endowment paper ‘Egypt's Controversial Constitutional Amendments’, by Nathan J. Brown, Michele Dunne and Amr Hamzawy, published 23 March 2007, www.carnegieendowment.org/files/egypt_constitution_webcommentary01.pdf (accessed 15 September 2011).

  39. Lyon, Alistair, ‘Egyptians Chafe under Mubarak's Protracted Tenure’, Reuters, 10 January 2011.

  40. Interview with the authors in Cairo, October 2011.

  41. A full account of these tactics is in Levison, Charles and Coker, Margaret, ‘The Secret Rally that Sparked an Uprising’, Wall Street Journal, 11 February 2011, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704132204576135882356532702.html (accessed 30 October 2011).

  42. Some twenty-five former NDP officials were sent to court accused of organizing the camel attack. They deny the charges. For details see ‘Egypt begins trial over February protest camel charge’, Reuters, 11 September 2011, www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/11/us-egypt-trial-charge-idUSTRE78A2J720110911 (accessed 21 January 2012).

  43. For part of Ghonim's interview on Dream TV where he breaks down and leaves the studio, see www.youtube.com/watch?v=V690GO7YzgA (accessed 21 January 2012).

  44. Perry, Tom and Wright, Jonathan, ‘New Protesters Flood Cairo Square to Oppose Mubarak’, Reuters, 8 February 2011.

  45. According to labour union activists interviewed by the authors in Cairo in October 2011.

  46. A breakdown of the civilian and military products manufactured by the AOI is available at www.aoi.com.eg/aoieng/ (accessed 1 November 2011).

  47. The NSPO is notoriously opaque but a brief outline of its activities is at www.nspo.com.eg/Untitled–1.htm (accessed 1 November 2011).

  48. Topol, Sarah A., ‘Egypt's Command Economy’, 15 December 2010, www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/dispatches/2010/12/egypts_command_economy.html (accessed 1 November, 2011).

  49. ‘Egypt's Private Sector Country Profile 2009�
��, African Development Bank, pp. 13–14, www.afdb.org/fileadmin/uploads/afdb/Documents/Project-and-Operations/Brochure%20Egypt%20Anglais.pdf (accessed 2 November 2011).

  50. For an assessment of Egypt's military, see Cordesman, Anthony H. and Nerguizian, Aram, ‘The Egypt Military and the Arab-Israeli Military Balance: Conventional Realities and Asymmetric Challenges’, February 2011. Also see the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute's tally from 1988 to 2010.

  51. ‘Egypt: Retry or Free 12,000 after Unfair Military Trials’, Human Rights Watch, 10 September 2011.

  52. ‘Work on him Until he Confesses: Impunity for Torture in Egypt’, Human Rights Watch, January 2011.

  53. ‘Egypt Arrests 28 People over Protest Clashes’, Reuters, 11 October 2011.

  54. Abdel Fattah's letter was published on the website of No Military Trials, a pressure group set up in 2011 to campaign against military trials of civilians, http://en.nomiltrials.com/ (accessed 2 November 2011).

  55. Author Lin Noueihed was a witness to some of the incidents at Maspero, interviewing protesters and bystanders.

  56. Kamel, Ahmed, ‘Egypt NGOs May Fade if Denied Foreign Funding’, Egyptian Gazette, 28 September 2011.

  57. Beach, Alastair, ‘HSBC Accused of Helping Egypt Generals Stifle Dissent’, Independent, 31 October 2011, www.independent.co.uk/news/world/africa/hsbc-accused-of-helping-egypt-generals-stifle-dissent–6255002.html (accessed 12 November 2011).

  58. Zayed, Dina and Hammond, Andrew, ‘Egypt State Media Changes Tune After Mubarak's Fall’, 15 February 2011.

  59. According to interviews by the authors with various activists.

  60. Elyan, Tamim, ‘Egypt's Army Says Emergency Law in Place till June’, Reuters, 21 September 2011.

  61. For a good explanation of how the elections were organized see Hassan, Mazen, ‘The Effects of Egypt's Election Law’, Foreign Policy, 1 November 2011, http://mideast.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2011/11/01/egypts_electoral_cunundrum#.TrB8ahHnKGE.Twitter (accessed 3 November 2011).

  62. Osman, Tarek, Egypt on the Brink: From Nasser to Mubarak. London/New Haven: Yale University Press, 2010, p. 105.

  63. ‘Egypt Elections: Low Turnout for First-round Runoffs’, BBC News, 5 December 2011.

  64. ‘Supra-constitutional Debate Heats up Again’, Al Masry Al Youm, 3 November 2011, www.almasryalyoum.com/en/node/511527 (accessed 3 November 2011).